Will Deng Go to Charlotte

[George O'Brien]

As it currently stands, the Suns are slotted to take the #5 pick. They could go to the top three if the ping pong balls fall right, or drop if someone behind the Suns gets into the top three. However, the odds are still good that the Suns will draft #5.

This means that figuring out what Charlotte will be doing will give some hint about their expansion draft plans in addition to their rookie draft. Since they are certain to be #4, they are not going to get Howard or Okafor who are certain to go in the top three (probably the top two).

At least a couple of mock drafts have projected that they will take Luol Deng of Duke. This would be a plus for the Suns because he is probably not a good fit for the Suns.

Why would they take Deng? The most obvous reason is that he is a talented prospect and would be a household name from a nearby school. Even if the Bobcats thought that Andre Iguodala would be a better player, Deng would sell more tickets.

Unlike with the Suns where Deng would not be able to beat out Marion, he might even start on the Bobcats.

draft city

STRENGTH: Extremely versatile; at 6'8, Deng shoots better from the outside than most college guards; very nice handle for a guy his size, is known to grab the board and bring the ball up court successfully if Duhon is not readily available; has very good court vision at times; can't really be stopped on the dribble drive unless he is fouled; still very young meaning that he is one of the top players in college basketball without having come close to his prime; smothers opponents on the defensive end with his long frame; can score equally well from the three-point line as he can in the lane; seems to be pretty durable for a freshman; humongous potential combined with tons of already visible ability, so GM's wouldn't by any means be drafting a project.

WEAKNESS: At times, it seems that Deng forgets he has teammates on the offensive end, as he catches a pass early in the shot clock and attempts to score, and is not always successful; still unclear how Deng does in strict half court setup on offensive end; hasn't really displayed a mid-range game, but this doesn't mean he doesn't have one; footwork sometimes looks a bit off, more so on the perimeter than in the post; has not yet been tested and therefore has not yet proven that he can hold his own against other top draft prospects.

The Bobcats may decide to go for a point guard instead. But hopefully they won't have to with Eisley playing for them.

 

[elindholm]

As it currently stands, the Suns are slotted to take the #5 pick. They could go to the top three if the ping pong balls fall right, or drop if someone behind the Suns gets into the top three. However, the odds are still good that the Suns will draft #5.

Not that good. If the Suns finish with the fourth-worst record overall, there is only a 10% chance that they will pick exactly fifth.

Chances of the fourth-worst team landing a particular pick in this summer's lottery:

#1: 12.0%
#2: 12.7%
#3: 13.4%
#4: zero (reserved for Charlotte)
#5: 10.0%
#6: 35.1%
#7: 15.6%
#8: 1.2%

In other words, the most likely scenario is that all three worse teams stay in front of the Suns, and one random team from back in the pack somewhere moves into the top three.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
As it currently stands, the Suns are slotted to take the #5 pick. They could go to the top three if the ping pong balls fall right, or drop if someone behind the Suns gets into the top three. However, the odds are still good that the Suns will draft #5.

Not that good. If the Suns finish with the fourth-worst record overall, there is only a 10% chance that they will pick exactly fifth.

Chances of the fourth-worst team landing a particular pick in this summer's lottery:

#1: 12.0%
#2: 12.7%
#3: 13.4%
#4: zero (reserved for Charlotte)
#5: 10.0%
#6: 35.1%
#7: 15.6%
#8: 1.2%

In other words, the most likely scenario is that all three worse teams stay in front of the Suns, and one random team from back in the pack somewhere moves into the top three.

By your numbers, the Suns have just under a 50% chance (48.1%) of drafting in the #5 slot or better.

Knowing who is going to take whom is helpful in draft planning, especially if is not someone you want.

 

[Chaplin]

Where did you get that from Eric? And why is the #5 the LEAST likely pick we'll get? (Even worse odds than the #1)

 

[elindholm]

Where did you get that from Eric? And why is the #5 the LEAST likely pick we'll get? (Even worse odds than the #1)

Capologist posted the numbers two years ago (before the Stoudemire lottery) and I saved them. Before he posted them, I had started computing them myself, and so when they matched, I felt that I could trust his entire table.

As far as "why" goes, all I can say is that that's how the numbers work out. In order for the Suns to get the #5 pick, the three lottery winners have to be exactly the three worst teams in the league. (Has that ever happened? I doubt it.)

If one of the worse teams doesn't win the lottery, they'll draft ahead of the Suns anyway. But if one of the better teams wins, they push everyone else down. So you can point to any one specific lottery team and say that their chances of moving up aren't very good, but when you consider the chances of any of those teams moving up, it starts to add up.

And if just one team moves up, poof: the Suns will not draft #5. They'll draft higher if they were the ones that moved up, and lower if it was anyone else.

 

[elindholm]

Knowing who is going to take whom is helpful in draft planning, especially if is not someone you want.

Absolutely, which is why every GM in the league lies through his teeth about who he's thinking of taking. Why give your opponents free information to help them make better decisions?

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
Knowing who is going to take whom is helpful in draft planning, especially if is not someone you want.

Absolutely, which is why every GM in the league lies through his teeth about who he's thinking of taking. Why give your opponents free information to help them make better decisions?

Actually the past few years the top 10 were pretty close to what everyone projected, although the exact order may be surprise. Sometimes a team like Cleveland will take Wagner too early (two years ago) or someone has contract issues like Lampe and drops; but usually it is not rocket science to match players and needs.

This year may be harder. There are far too many HS and Euro players at the top to get a clear handle. Some mock drafts have two HS point guards in the top ten. I don't think there has been a single HS point guard taken since Marbury. The NCAA's may change things. I'm not sure Wade was on anyone's radar before the tournament and he went #5.

Right now Charlotte is the only team whose position in the draft is certain. Knowing who they are likely to take improves the analysis just slightly.

 

[elindholm]

Actually the past few years the top 10 were pretty close to what everyone projected, although the exact order may be surprise.

If you're in the top 10, isn't the exact order the main question?

Anyway, I disagree. Last year's draft did indeed correspond surprisingly well with the mocks (using nbadraft as the example of choice). But in 2002, it was quite a bit different. Here is nbadraft's final mock draft for the 2002 lottery, with the player actually taken at that spot in parentheses:

1. Yao (Yao)
2. Williams (Williams)
3. Dunleavy (Dunleavy)
4. Gooden (Gooden)
5. Nene (Tskitishvili)
6. Wilcox (Wagner)
7. Jeffries (Nene)
8. Wagner (Wilcox)
9. Tskitishvili (Stoudemire)
10. Butler (Butler)
11. Borchardt (Jeffries)
12. Stoudemire (Ely)
13. Nachbar (Haislip)

After the first four picks, it really isn't particularly close. In many cases, the positions of the predicted and chosen players don't even agree.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
Actually the past few years the top 10 were pretty close to what everyone projected, although the exact order may be surprise.

If you're in the top 10, isn't the exact order the main question?

Anyway, I disagree. Last year's draft did indeed correspond surprisingly well with the mocks (using nbadraft as the example of choice). But in 2002, it was quite a bit different. Here is nbadraft's final mock draft for the 2002 lottery, with the player actually taken at that spot in parentheses:

1. Yao (Yao)
2. Williams (Williams)
3. Dunleavy (Dunleavy)
4. Gooden (Gooden)
5. Nene (Tskitishvili)
6. Wilcox (Wagner)
7. Jeffries (Nene)
8. Wagner (Wilcox)
9. Tskitishvili (Stoudemire)
10. Butler (Butler)
11. Borchardt (Jeffries)
12. Stoudemire (Ely)
13. Nachbar (Haislip)

After the first four picks, it really isn't particularly close. In many cases, the positions of the predicted and chosen players don't even agree.

The board I put together was actually closer than nbadraft.net.

My main focus was on who would be available when the Suns drafted. It did not make a tremendous amount of difference if Nene went ahead of Skeets or afterward. I was absolutely sure Jeffries and Ely would be available when the Suns drafted and just as sure Nene and probably Wilcox would not be.

I wasn't the only person who was stunned when the Cavs took Wagner. I can't remember anyone listing him any higher than #15 (everyone expected them to take Butler).

Of course none of the mock drafts had Amare pegped right either, but that was due to the general disappointment in the HS guys from the previous year: Chandler, Curry, and Diop.

I was very high on Wilcox although I (correctly) believed he would not contribute much the first year. Considering that the Clips already had Brand, this seemed like an odd pick, but they are the Clips.

 

[elindholm]

Sounds like, when the time comes, you should post your mock draft for this summer, so that we can all bask in the glow of your insight. Please be willing to share.

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by elindholm
Sounds like, when the time comes, you should post your mock draft for this summer, so that we can all bask in the glow of your insight. Please be willing to share.

Sure no problem

I have to admit that being strictly a fan I am totally reliant on the reviews posted by the various webs sites that do mock drafts. I try to pay attention to what things they agree on and what things they don't. Obviously they reflect a kind of "group think", but no more than the GM's themselves.

Mock drafts involve two factors - guessing who is going to be good and guessing what the GM's will be thinking. As a rule, the deeper into the draft, the lower the probability that the guesses will be correct. However, the "consensus" view (looking at 12 to 15 mock drafts) is generally pretty close in terms of players being taken only a couple of slots up or down from where projected.

Exact accuracy is impossible because of late trade and stupid GMs. For example, this year's deal that Memphis and Boston did that swapped draft picks led to some odd picks by Memphis. They ended up with Troy Bell and Dahntay Jones - two guys who might have been available. Troy Bell has played a TOTAL fo 7 minutes this season. Jones averages 7.9 minutes per game in only 15 games (with a 29.5% shooting percentage it is hardly a surprise).

Jerry West is supposed to be a great GM, but he trade the #13 and #27 picks for the #16 and #20 picks. Luke Ridnour was widely recognized as the best PG prospect, yet West passed on him to get Bell? Absolutely no one had Jones in the first round and he is no where close to being as good as Josh Howard who was.

So I'll do the best I can until some idiot GM screws things up.

 

[Joe Mama]

I mentioned Memphis' draft briefly in the chat room last night. Obviously Jerry West has done a great job with the Memphis grizzlies because they've gone from being one of the league's biggest jokes to a playoff team in the difficult Western Conference. He acquired the right players through trades and free agency and the right coach.

What in the world was he thinking with that draft last year though? I know we should give those guys some time, but the general consensus is that he would have been better off taking almost anyone taken after those guys in the first round.

Joe Mama

 

[George O'Brien]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
I mentioned Memphis' draft briefly in the chat room last night. Obviously Jerry West has done a great job with the Memphis grizzlies because they've gone from being one of the league's biggest jokes to a playoff team in the difficult Western Conference. He acquired the right players through trades and free agency and the right coach.

What in the world was he thinking with that draft last year though? I know we should give those guys some time, but the general consensus is that he would have been better off taking almost anyone taken after those guys in the first round.

Joe Mama

One of the reasons GM's should at least look at the mock drafts is that they often reflect real rumors and not just team disinformation. For example, EVERYONE knew the Suns were going to take Carbakapa. In fact, Boston brought Zarko in for a workout even though he was not playing a position they were looking to fill -- just to figure out why the Suns were interested.

 

[F-Dog]

Originally posted by Joe Mama
What in the world was he thinking with that draft last year though? I know we should give those guys some time, but the general consensus is that he would have been better off taking almost anyone taken after those guys in the first round.

Joe Mama

I had a tough time figuring out Jerry West's draft, too.

What I've decided is that West really did want Pietrus after all, and his draft board was blown when the Warriors took him--otherwise the Grizzlies would have stayed in their spots and drafted Pietrus at #13 and Troy Bell at #27.

I can see trading down after that--there was no point in taking Bell at #13--but even so, Dahntay Jones in the first round is a head-scratcher, especially considering that Josh Howard was available...