From an outsiders point of view...
By Nick Prevenas Thursday, January 06, 2005
Let me preface everything I’m about to write with this: The Phoenix Suns are by far the most entertaining team the NBA has seen in years.
I’ve adopted them as my bandwagon team. I love their style, Nash’s hair, Amare’s dunks, and Marion’s hustle. I love all of it. They’re a borderline work of art when compared to their lead-foot contemporaries.
They’re one of a handful of teams that can execute a fast break without the ball touching the floor. They play on their toes and force opponents onto their heels for 48 minutes. They have a floor general, a go-to-guy, a top notch group of three-point shooters, and (most importantly) a swagger. They are truly more than the sum of their parts.
At 28-4, Phoenix owns the best record in the NBA. Their starting lineup boasts three potential All-Stars. They are sure to give teams fits in the playoffs. They have established themselves as a definite title contender.
But why won’t the Suns win the NBA’s big prize? Because of these four reasons.
1. Too much media hype
Every season, a team comes sprinting out of the gate and wins over fans and media pundits alike. Once the hype machine starts rolling, it’s nearly impossible to slow it down.
Eventually, the praise overwhelms the team’s actual performance and renders the “experts” useless when trying to accurately judge the on-court product. Lately, many have begun to wonder out loud whether this particular squad can approach the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ record-setting 72-10 season.
Are they serious???
Now I love this Phoenix team as much as anybody, but we’re talking about one of (if not THE) greatest basketball teams of all-time, playing under optimum circumstances. Not only was the league in a talent rut, this was also the season that welcomed the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver (now Memphis) Grizzlies into the league, further thinning out the talent pool. This was a season where Juwon Howard was 10th in the league in scoring. Plus, the Bulls had MJ and Scottie at the peak of their powers. They didn’t lose their fourth game until February 4th (to the Denver Nuggets!), after they had already complied 41 victories.
My guess is Phoenix reaches 60 wins and battles the Spurs for the #1 seed in the West. But they will not challenge the 70-win mark. No way.
When the press avalanche reaches this point, a team (especially one as young as Phoenix) might start to believe the hype. If they start worrying about 72 victories—especially in the brutal Western Conference—they can kiss their title hopes goodbye.
(Speaking of the media, I’m writing this as I watch the Suns cruise past the Rockets on ESPN. Play-by-play man Jim Durham stated that Steve Nash has never played with anyone who made him look as good as Amare Stoudemire. And he was serious. Apparently, Dirk Nowitzki only exists in my imagination because I could swear he made Nash look pretty good on several occasions).
2. Steve Nash’s lower back
For a team as loaded as Phoenix, it might come as a surprise that their playoff hopes rest squarely on the Canadian shoulders of Steve Nash. The Suns’ faithful better hope that weight isn’t too heavy, because his back will give out.
It’s no coincidence that everyone on the Phoenix roster is having a career year with Nash on board. He is one of maybe four or five point guards in the league that actually understands how to play the position. He has remarkable vision and a preternatural understanding of passing angles. He keeps everyone happy and scores only when necessary.
The best part about his game is that it’s contagious. Nobody on the Suns would have ever been called a good passer prior to Nash’s arrival. But now everybody looks for their teammate on the fast break and hits the shooter on the wing. It’s beautiful.
But if history is any indication, Nash will burn out during the stretch run. The biggest cause of Dallas’ collapses in the playoffs hasn’t been the lack of defense (though it hasn’t helped matters, either), it’s been Nash’s struggles with The Wall.
He plays at fifth gear all the time, which takes its toll during an 82-game season. During the second season, he’s not the same player. His passes are less crisp and his drives are less effective.
No player is more indispensable to his team’s success than Nash. The list of players as vital to their respective teams is short: KG, Duncan, LeBron, Shaq/Wade, O’Neal and Kidd (when healthy). Without Nash, the Suns lose their compass, their identity, their soul. If you think Leandro Barbosa is capable of leading this team on a deep playoff run...well...no.
3. Amare Stoudemire’s subtle, but apparent flaws
If you’ve seen any Phoenix highlights recently, you might be under the impression that Amare Stoudemire is the greatest power forward ever to play the game. By the time he retires, every NBA team will retire his #32. Teams like the Lakers that have already retired #32 will be ordered to re-retire Magic’s number in Amare’s honor. He will obliterate Kareem’s career scoring mark before he turns 30.
I love Amare as much as anybody, but let’s be reasonable here. He’s an immensely talented player with a Hall-of-Fame ceiling. But he’s not there yet. Anyone remember Shawn Kemp?
First, he has no left hand. Watch Amare work on the block. Nearly every move he makes is to his right. Every turnaround jumper is over his right shoulder. The only time he goes left is if his defender is shadowing his right hand or if the double-team comes from his right. He had made some admirable strides in this area from his rookie season, but it’s not quite where it needs to be. A coach with a good defensive scheme and appropriate personnel (read: Gregg Popavich and Larry Brown) can exploit this weakness in a 7-game series.
Second, he is a lousy rebounder. A guy with his athleticism should average at least 12 boards a game, but he’s currently only averaging 8.6. Shawn Marion is by far team’s best rebounder and he is playing out of position at power forward against players three-four inches taller. Amare needs to learn how to box out fast if the Suns have any hopes of contending.
Third, he is always looking to make the SportsCenter highlights, sometimes at the detriment of his team’s success. He wants to dunk every time on offense and block every shot on defense. I love his enthusiasm, but sometimes, a layup or a box-out will do the job. His desire to block shots often leaves him out of position on defense, which is dangerous for an already defensively-challenged team. This is a common mistake with many younger players, especially ones with as much sheer athleticism as Stoudemire.
Amare’s 50-point effort against the Portland Trailblazers on January 2 displayed everything good and bad about the Stoudemire experience. His dominance was slightly misleading, since the men guarding him (especially Zack Randolph) are embarrassingly bad defenders. He grabbed 11 rebounds that evening for the same reason.
However, any night where you score 50 on only 27 field goal attempts is simply remarkable. If he could shoot free throws (flaw #4), he would’ve scored 55.
After Nash, Stoudemire is the most important member of this team. Personally, I hope he continues this string of dominance through the playoffs, but I still feel he’s another year away from truly realizing his potential. With that said, few other players cause me to rub my eyes in disbelief more often than Amare. He’s always worth the price of admission, but that doesn’t always translate into long-term playoff success.
4. Phoenix’s lack of big-game experience (especially with the coach)
To be honest, I like D’Antoni. I have relatively fond memories of his days coaching the Denver Nuggets, and trust me, I don’t have many fond late-90s memories of the Nuggs. He’s a solid coach and his teams always play hard.
But he’s coached exactly as many playoff games as I have.
It’s a different game entirely in the postseason. The intensity increases a full level, perhaps two levels. In the 7-game format, coaching staffs are given the opportunity to obsess over every detail and every weakness their opponent possesses. Scoring often decreases in the playoffs because there’s no room for extra points. Every basket is a precious commodity. Every possession is life or death.
Coach D’Antoni’s squad is a wide-open scoring machine. They adhere to the “we’ll run the opponent out of the gym” school of offense. Defense is an afterthought. In today’s NBA, those easy fast breaks will evaporate in the postseason.
The only way to become a successful postseason coach is through experience. You have to get to know your personnel inside and out. You have to address and correct your team’s weaknesses before the opposing coach has a chance to break down your film. You have to have battle-tested veterans who can help you carry the load.
Last I checked, the Suns (and their coach) are desperately lacking in playoff experience. Only Nash has any real playoff experience. It’s awfully difficult to ask a young team with an inexperienced coach to learn the brutal nuances of playoff basketball on the fly.
Every serious title contender has to take their lumps before they can break through to the next level. The Bad Boys-era Pistons had to overcome Larry Bird and the Celtics before they could capture back-to-back titles. MJ’s Bulls had to struggle against those same Pistons before Jordan could reel off those six championships. The Spurs and Lakers had to overcome each other for their respective titles. Even last year’s Pistons team dealt with playoff heartache at the hands of the New Jersey Nets before Larry Brown replaced Rick Carlisle.
At this point, it appears as if Phoenix’s biggest road block is a seemingly invincible San Antonio Spurs squad. In their first matchup, the Spurs beat the Suns 115-94 in San Antonio. Phoenix played a decent ballgame, but they were simply overwhelmed by a superior ballclub.
The scariest thing about the Spurs is that they remain only 2.5 games behind the Suns for the overall best record in the league and Tim Duncan is averaging less than 35 minutes a game. He’s going to have another gear ready for the postseason, one that the Suns (and every other NBA team) will be hard-pressed to keep up with. At this point, it appears as if Duncan and the Spurs will be the team most likely to administer Phoenix’s first dose of playoff heartache.
So before anyone starts comparing the 2004-2005 Phoenix Suns to the greatest teams in NBA history, please remember that there is a lot of season left to play. I hate to play the role of naysayer, but the hype machine has been spinning out of control for way too long. Phoenix has a lot of work to do before they can be mentioned with as a truly elite team. But for the time being, I’ll continue to watch every game, cheer every Nash assist and Amare slam, and quietly wish that every team had their “problems.”
[font=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Read Taking the Charge every Thursday (or thereabouts) on SportsFanMagazine.com. Contact Nick Prevenas at [email protected].
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Anyway, I think he brings up most of the relevant obstacles to the Suns' success this year.
