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Women’s college basketball underwent a major shakeup on Monday night with the season-ending knee injury of USC star JuJu Watkins. During a second-round NCAA Tournament matchup against No. 9 seed Mississippi State, Watkins tore the ACL in her right knee during the first quarter.While the Trojans still generated a blowout win to advance to the Sweet 16, the national championship hopes for USC look bleak without its best player. The national title odds of the other contenders remained largely unchanged through two rounds of play. Odds for USC have dropped significantly, however, after the injury to Watkins.
So, where do things stand heading into the Sweet 16?
2025 women’s college basketball national title odds
JuJu’s injury alters USC’s expected trajectory
USC’s national championship hopes were greatly impacted after Watkins sustained the injury. The Trojans started the NCAA Tournament at +550 and fell to +800 before the second round tipped. The odds for USC eventually settled at +2500 on the news that Watkins is out for the season.
According to BetMGM, USC held the third-highest ticket percentage (11 percent) and the third-highest handle (12.2 percent) among bets to win the national title.
There’s still plenty of talent for the Trojans to stay competitive without Watkins. Forward Kiki Iriafen is an All-American-caliber talent at forward and a unanimous First Team All-Big Ten selection. Center Rayah Marshall is one of the tournament’s most impactful defensive players still remaining. USC’s acclaimed freshmen class stepped up with three players in double figures in the second-round win over Mississippi State.
But the missing star power and natural scoring prowess of Watkins will be difficult to replace. Watkins impacted the gravity of opposing defenses each possession and took over games with incredible scoring bursts. Without its star, USC will need a complete team effort to overcome a potential Elite Eight matchup with No. 2 UConn.
UConn and South Carolina stay ahead of the pack
Connecticut (+175) has edged ahead as the tournament favorite after two easy wins in Gampel Pavilion. Opening the NCAA Tournament at +280 odds, the Huskies fell to +225 and eventually settled at +175 after the second round was completed.
UConn is now the heavy favorite in Regional 4 after the injury to Watkins. If seeding holds, the No. 2 Huskies would face the No. 1 Trojans in the Elite Eight on Sunday — setting up a rematch from the same round last season.
Since its last regular-season loss at Tennessee, UConn has won every game by at least 19 points during its 11-game winning streak.
South Carolina (+200) is right behind UConn on the odds board after advancing to the Sweet 16 for the 11th straight tournament. The Gamecocks started the tournament at +275 and hold the highest ticket percentage (15.4 percent) and the highest handle (29 percent) among national title bets.
Heavy favorites by nearly 20 points against No. 4 Maryland, South Carolina owns a 58 percent chance of making the women’s Final Four — according to Austin Mock’s Women’s March Madness projections. If seeding holds, the Gamecocks would face No. 2 Duke in a rematch of a regular-season matchup that saw South Carolina win by 11 points in early December.
UCLA, Texas remain in the mix
After UConn and South Carolina, second-tier title favorites also saw some changes with USC’s drop on the odds board.
UCLA comes in next after a solid opening weekend. The Bruins started the NCAA Tournament at +550 before dropping to +500 entering the Sweet 16. The top seed in Regional 1, UCLA is favored by several points against No. 5 Ole Miss in its next matchup before a difficult Elite Eight draw against either NC State or LSU. The only losses the Bruins have suffered all season came to the rival Trojans.
It’s been easy through two rounds for No. 1 Texas (+750). The Longhorns didn’t make a 3-pointer during their blowout win over Illinois but relied on strong interior play and relentless defense. Texas faces SEC opponent Tennessee in the Sweet 16 after a close win over the Lady Vols in the regular season.
Things could get interesting for the Longhorns in the Elite Eight if No. 3 Notre Dame advances. That game would set up a rematch from the SEC/ACC Challenge in which Notre Dame won.
Notre Dame (+1000) remains in the mix for the national title despite its status as a No. 3 seed. The former No. 1 team in the country faces familiar competition in Regional 3 in Birmingham. The Irish lost to No. 2 TCU during non-conference play in late November and also beat Texas in December.
Can any other teams make a move?
TCU’s national title odds fluctuated frequently during the opening rounds. The Horned Frogs opened at +5000 before jumping up to +2500 and settling in at +3500.
TCU faces Notre Dame in the Sweet 16. The Fighting Irish are favored in the rematch, which could be the most entertaining matchup of the Sweet 16.
Duke (+3000) is up from +5000 at the start of the tournament and now faces rival North Carolina in the Sweet 16. The Tar Heels (+15000) are tied for the second-longest odds of any team in the Sweet 16. These teams split the regular-season series against the Blue Devils. Duke is a solid favorite in the rubber match.
Sweet 16 opponents LSU (+4000) and NC State (+4500) are next on the odds board. When these two teams battled during non-conference play, it led to a blowout win for the Tigers. Now, the odds say this is the tightest Sweet 16 matchup with a chance to potentially face No. 1 UCLA in the next round.
Tennessee (+12500) owns the fourth-longest odds of any team left in the field. The Lady Vols do own a win over UConn, however, and only lost to Sweet 16 opponent Texas by four points in SEC play during the regular season.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
USC Trojans, South Carolina State Bulldogs, UCLA Bruins, TCU Horned Frogs, Connecticut Huskies, Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Sports Betting, Women's NCAA Tournament
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