XBOX 360 Will Win Console War According to Merrill Lynch

azsouthendzone

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Updated: Wednesday, 15 November 2006
Merrill Lynch Pegs Xbox 360 as Winner

By Kris Graft Print | Send to a friend | Email the editor

According to a report in the International Business Times, Merrill Lynch expects the Xbox 360 to beat the PlayStation 3 and Wii worldwide, and totally throttle the competition in North America.
Merrill Lynch research analyst Yoshiyuki Kinoshita said, “The winner in the next-generation console battle is likely to be the Xbox 360, which is the leader in North America, the world’s biggest market.”

Microsoft's next-gen console launched in November 2005, while Sony's and Nintendo's new systems are just launching this week.

Kinoshita continued, "We forecast respective market shares [by fiscal year ending March 2011] of Xbox 360 [at] 39 percent, PS3 [at] 34 percent and Wii [at] 27 percent, thus overturning Sony’s domination of the market with its PS2-based share of 69 percent, and doubling Microsoft and Nintendo’s respective market shares."

Kinoshita also predicted that in North America, Microsoft will hold a massive 50 percent next-gen console market share, followed distantly by Sony with 27 percent and Nintendo with 23 percent in the region.

In the smaller Japan market, the PS3 is forecasted to capture 57 percent and Nintendo at 39 percent. IBTimes’ report stated that Merrill Lynch didn’t address Japan figures for the Xbox 360, although 4 percent is unaccounted for in the region’s estimates. The Xbox brand is historically unpopular in the country.

On a global basis, Kinoshita’s forecasts echo other analysts’ and game publishers’ predictions that Sony will not dominate the new console cycle as it did in the past.

Microsoft’s goal is to sell 10 million Xbox 360s worldwide by the end of the year, while Sony aims to ship 2-2.4 million PS3s and Nintendo targets 4 million Wiis shipped by year-end.
 

dreamcastrocks

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I dont know if I disagree with this. The price is just too much for people to shell out on a console..... Even with BluRay support.
 

Evil Ash

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I dont know if I disagree with this. The price is just too much for people to shell out on a console..... Even with BluRay support.

Who knows? Sony does have a great deal of brand loyalty so I think that they'll still do just fine. The thousands waiting in line (both here and Japan) show that

My guess is that this generation will be real close in terms of consoles sold with the 360 and PS3 in basic tie for 2nd with Nintendo winning by a slight margin due to their lower price.
 

D-Dogg

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Nintendo won't come within 20% of either PS3 or X360 console sales. (to clarify, I mean US sales...it will tear Japan apart and sell a bajillion units there...that gameplay style is specifically suited to Japan and now with games like Guitar Heroes, they are trying to get it going over here).

Wii looks gimmicky...to get that many installs, it is going to have to be majorly bad-ass. If I end up getting a Wii, then yes, it will overtake Sony and Microsoft...but I don't forsee myself buying one even at its nice pricepoint.
 
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Nintendo won't come within 20% of either PS3 or X360 console sales.

Wii looks gimmicky...to get that many installs, it is going to have to be majorly bad-ass. If I end up getting a Wii, then yes, it will overtake Sony and Microsoft...but I don't forsee myself buying one even at its nice pricepoint.

I am not nearly as informed as others on this topic... But my 9 year old son is screaming for a PS3 for xmas... He's had a Nintendo Game Cube for the last few years which has generally woked out well... But I have to admit, the new PS3 sounds pretty bad-ass...
But I'm curuous D-Dogg, why would you not buy a Wii?
 

D-Dogg

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I am not nearly as informed as others on this topic... But my 9 year old son is screaming for a PS3 for xmas... He's had a Nintendo Game Cube for the last few years which has generally woked out well... But I have to admit, the new PS3 sounds pretty bad-ass...
But I'm curuous D-Dogg, why would you not buy a Wii?

I'm not a fan of it's controller thingie and it's celebration of the "fun" of games at the expense of graphics. Now, graphics aren't the be-all, end-all of gaming but at this point you can make great games that look fantastic at the same time. So I'm kind of in the camp that you can give me fun and graphics at the same time, while Wii is only saying they will bring fun...and are they proving it? Yet again, they launch a console without a mario title at release. Metroid one billion isn't making me itch for a Wii.

It's cheaper, but I think the X360 will drop price if the Wii starts selling well, and then they will be roughly the same place...

And again, the controller comes off extremely gimmicky to me, and uncomfortable in general.

With one hand, gamers hold a controller that resembles a TV remote, which Nintendo reps repeatedly asked journalists not to call the "Wiimote." Sorry, guys — you dug your own grave on that one.

The Wiimote has four primary buttons, a directional pad — and a port in its bottom into which you plug a second controller, the egg-shaped "nunchuk." That's held by the other hand and has its own directional thumbstick and two trigger buttons.

It's somewhat difficult to explain the arrangement in words, and even pictures barely do justice to the controller's truly clever and versatile design.

For example, in the racing game "Excite Truck," the Wiimote is held like a steering wheel and its buttons are used to accelerate and brake.

In the boxing section of the "Wii Sports" game that comes with the console, no buttons are used at all — players just grasp the Wiimote and nunchuk and throw punches.

In "The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess," however, the Wiimote becomes a sword, a bow and arrow, a boomerang — and a fishing rod.

Sounds cool, and fun...for a time. But I feel it will get old and quick. As a party game console...I'd go with Wii 100%...but I don't usually game with a bunch of people. If I were in college, i'd get a Wii. But not now...my 360 is just fine.

$250 for a Wii is NOT cheap. Not for what it brings to the table. I might pick up a Wii when it hits 99 bucks or so.
 

coyoteshockeyfan

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Kids will love the Wii. I don't know about how well all of the more unconventional controllers will work (I think theres three controllers, a normal one, and then the remote and the nunchuck thingy), but it looks like it could be fun.
 

D-Dogg

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Have a nice wait. The last gen (Xbox/PS2) haven't even gotten that low yet.

Close enough...

http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=5291606

$129 for PS2.

Gamecubes went for like 70 bucks not long after launch (because they didn't launch well). abomb bought one on Walmart's Black Friday sale for that.


I actually can't find Xbox on any major retailer site...it's like they stopped making them completely...good thing I have my PS2 and Xbox both still.
 

D-Dogg

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http://cgi.ebay.com/PLAYSTATION-3-6...7QQihZ003QQcategoryZ62054QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Anybody have $5500 they can part with? LOL

Like I said they'll do just fine

Ask abomb how ebay got flooded on launch night with Xbox 360 and he watched some go for more than a grand, then got no bids on his when the site got huge numbers of them.

Hell, it might make sense to watch eBay, find a dude selling for a good price under market and try to win it at market value. Better than standing in line, although....waiting in line for a launch of a console can be one hell of a good time.
 

Evil Ash

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Ask abomb how ebay got flooded on launch night with Xbox 360 and he watched some go for more than a grand, then got no bids on his when the site got huge numbers of them.

I do remember that and thought it was entertaining also. Amazing what new technology that is short in supply and high in demand can be sold for during the holiday rush

Another example: http://cgi.ebay.com/Playstation-3-P...7QQihZ005QQcategoryZ62054QQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Holy Crap

Hell, it might make sense to watch eBay, find a dude selling for a good price under market and try to win it at market value. Better than standing in line, although....waiting in line for a launch of a console can be one hell of a good time.

I've done that several times for games and yeah there is always plenty of entertainment. I always wait for the 2nd run of consoles though.
 

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Some interesting numbers for October;

Console Hardware
PS2: 235,042
Xbox 360: 217,772
Gamecube: 32,533
Xbox: 3,549
PSOne: 295

Console Software

PS2: 4,477,692
Xbox 360: 1,341,029
Xbox: 1,254,388
GameCube: 953,518
PSOne: 22,270


Portable Hardware
DS Lite: 349,828
DS: 10,586
Total DS: 360,414
PSP: 130,466


Portable Software
DS software: 1,364,809
GBA software: 1,283,132
PSP software: 653,340
 
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