Treesquid PhD
Pardon my Engrish
Watching Kevin Durant game to game has been incredible, I was always a fan, but I never have the time to watch all teams or even all great players night to night. Because I am employed and have kids, I think we can all relate. Also, it's obvious that Book is benefiting from KD as he has been freed up to score at an elite level. Even though Book isn't as efficient as KD, he still is extremely efficient. The narrative from the media is about the bench, and while I do agree the Suns are a little thin on the bench, I am really concerned that there is a blueprint to beat this year's version of the Suns in a series.
It won't be easy, but this is what I am observing, I am not an advanced analytics basketball person, but I do follow the numbers. So, quants please chime in. What I saw yesterday from Dallas was actually a really good defensive game plan with bad defensive players.
I saw the defense collapse on Ayton, and shade KD, while essentially letting Booker get his one on one. KD is a true shooting efficiency monster. I read that his true shoot was close to or at 80% in three games, which is mind blowing. But I did really like what Jason Kidd did. Not only did he collapse on Ayton but he also left the corner threes uncontested. Normally this would be a death blow because uncontested NBA corner threes are the best three point shot one can get. However, as much flowers as Josh Okogie gets with his hustle and rightfully so, he is a terrible shooter. I was quickly reminded by a friend that he that he went 5 for 10 vs. Chicago, which is correct. However, I went back and watched the looks he is getting and in the games that KD and Book are playing in Okogie's shots are not only uncontested, but they are also completely wide open.
Okogie's three-point shooting over his career is sub 30% this season it's above 32%. However, since he has been starting his volume of shotting is significant.
From game 57 to game 65 (since he has been starting) his median volume is 13 shots per game. Since KD has been playing his median shots per game has been 13 shots per game. In the small 3 game sample size Okogie has shot 23.2% from the field. In the three games as the starter and corner three D player he is averaging .25% I don't have the data, but I do believe almost all of those have been from the corner. What's concerning to me is that these shots are wide open and not contested, so it's bad. I know I am treading in emotional waters with a budding fan favorite, but this is clearly the path I would choose if I was defensing the Suns.
Kevin Durant in his three games has been 10/15, 7/10 and 12/17. Despite the unbelievable efficiency look at the median volume of shots KD is taking, it's less than Okogie, teams are just doubling and tripling Durant while leaving Okogie wide open. Now I don't think JO will continue to shoot this poorly from the corner, but he isn't going to shoot 5/10 on a regular basis either. What is important is that you want Josh Okogie to shoot 13 to 15 of the team 80 to 90 shots and limit the amount of looks KD gets. I also noticed that Okogie doesn't have the highest offensive basketball IQ and seems a bit lost and rightly encouraged to take a wide ass open corner threes. However, if I am Denver or a Golden State, I am more than happy to let Okogie take 13 shots per game and make at best 38 to 40 percent of those shots.
In the game yesterday Monty flat out benched Okogie, I think he played just a few second in the fourth quarter and he is a starter. Monty is smart enough to know that teams will see what Dallas did and replicate it. That's why JO was pulled, for all the grit and defensive talent he has, he is a bottom tier shooter and not deserving of a starting role or a crunch time role. The problem is your options are bad. Ish had a great game but I don't expect Ish to do that consistently, Ross is a bad defensive player, and Criag is streaky as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Criag get the starts as the season closes.
What does this mean? It means that teams will continue to live with JO's high volume shooting in the corner and just try to limit with numbers the amount of looks KD and Booker can get, while collapsing on DA. It also means CP3 has to fill that shooting void on his clear decline (no shade, he is almost 38, respect).
It also means that JO as a fan favorite is also the 2023 version of fourth quarter Frank, fun player, fan favorite but not exactly the guy you want taking a significant percentage of shots. Now this is only for this season, JO is only 24 and if he is smart he shoots about 25,000 corner threes in the offseason. But for this season it's a gap I don't think that can be solved. Perhaps Shamet can fill the void, I am confident that he would hit a higher percentage of wide open corner threes than JO, the number do bear that out.
What else? JO might not want to be something he not, a shot maker. He is an above average driver and if he takes advantage of that it could free up looks for Ayton, Book and DA cutting or lead to fouls. I just don't think Monty hoping he solves his shooting can be fixed this season.
I also know this is a work in progress, but don't be surprised if Monty inserts Shamet into that late game close out lineup and CP3 ends up taking more of those threes. If JO wants to really make it in this league long term he needs to take his shooting more seriously, if Ish can put in the work Josh needs to as well. This could result in millions of dollars for him, I hope he gets there. But for this season and these playoff, I am leaving Josh wide open and taking my chances.
It won't be easy, but this is what I am observing, I am not an advanced analytics basketball person, but I do follow the numbers. So, quants please chime in. What I saw yesterday from Dallas was actually a really good defensive game plan with bad defensive players.
I saw the defense collapse on Ayton, and shade KD, while essentially letting Booker get his one on one. KD is a true shooting efficiency monster. I read that his true shoot was close to or at 80% in three games, which is mind blowing. But I did really like what Jason Kidd did. Not only did he collapse on Ayton but he also left the corner threes uncontested. Normally this would be a death blow because uncontested NBA corner threes are the best three point shot one can get. However, as much flowers as Josh Okogie gets with his hustle and rightfully so, he is a terrible shooter. I was quickly reminded by a friend that he that he went 5 for 10 vs. Chicago, which is correct. However, I went back and watched the looks he is getting and in the games that KD and Book are playing in Okogie's shots are not only uncontested, but they are also completely wide open.
Okogie's three-point shooting over his career is sub 30% this season it's above 32%. However, since he has been starting his volume of shotting is significant.
From game 57 to game 65 (since he has been starting) his median volume is 13 shots per game. Since KD has been playing his median shots per game has been 13 shots per game. In the small 3 game sample size Okogie has shot 23.2% from the field. In the three games as the starter and corner three D player he is averaging .25% I don't have the data, but I do believe almost all of those have been from the corner. What's concerning to me is that these shots are wide open and not contested, so it's bad. I know I am treading in emotional waters with a budding fan favorite, but this is clearly the path I would choose if I was defensing the Suns.
Kevin Durant in his three games has been 10/15, 7/10 and 12/17. Despite the unbelievable efficiency look at the median volume of shots KD is taking, it's less than Okogie, teams are just doubling and tripling Durant while leaving Okogie wide open. Now I don't think JO will continue to shoot this poorly from the corner, but he isn't going to shoot 5/10 on a regular basis either. What is important is that you want Josh Okogie to shoot 13 to 15 of the team 80 to 90 shots and limit the amount of looks KD gets. I also noticed that Okogie doesn't have the highest offensive basketball IQ and seems a bit lost and rightly encouraged to take a wide ass open corner threes. However, if I am Denver or a Golden State, I am more than happy to let Okogie take 13 shots per game and make at best 38 to 40 percent of those shots.
In the game yesterday Monty flat out benched Okogie, I think he played just a few second in the fourth quarter and he is a starter. Monty is smart enough to know that teams will see what Dallas did and replicate it. That's why JO was pulled, for all the grit and defensive talent he has, he is a bottom tier shooter and not deserving of a starting role or a crunch time role. The problem is your options are bad. Ish had a great game but I don't expect Ish to do that consistently, Ross is a bad defensive player, and Criag is streaky as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Criag get the starts as the season closes.
What does this mean? It means that teams will continue to live with JO's high volume shooting in the corner and just try to limit with numbers the amount of looks KD and Booker can get, while collapsing on DA. It also means CP3 has to fill that shooting void on his clear decline (no shade, he is almost 38, respect).
It also means that JO as a fan favorite is also the 2023 version of fourth quarter Frank, fun player, fan favorite but not exactly the guy you want taking a significant percentage of shots. Now this is only for this season, JO is only 24 and if he is smart he shoots about 25,000 corner threes in the offseason. But for this season it's a gap I don't think that can be solved. Perhaps Shamet can fill the void, I am confident that he would hit a higher percentage of wide open corner threes than JO, the number do bear that out.
What else? JO might not want to be something he not, a shot maker. He is an above average driver and if he takes advantage of that it could free up looks for Ayton, Book and DA cutting or lead to fouls. I just don't think Monty hoping he solves his shooting can be fixed this season.
I also know this is a work in progress, but don't be surprised if Monty inserts Shamet into that late game close out lineup and CP3 ends up taking more of those threes. If JO wants to really make it in this league long term he needs to take his shooting more seriously, if Ish can put in the work Josh needs to as well. This could result in millions of dollars for him, I hope he gets there. But for this season and these playoff, I am leaving Josh wide open and taking my chances.
