My suggested approach to the Off-season - 1st wave wrap-up & looking ahead

[PDXChris]

MW will have a breakout season and leave via free agency ala Christian Kirk book it

If he breaks out this season, he'll be eligible for his extension next off-season. If Wilson doubles his production to get close to McBrides numbers, they have to extend his. If he hits Kirk year 4 like numbers, then he's a solid #2.

Wilson

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McBride

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Kirk

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It's easy to see why the Cardinals didn't extend Kirk after year 3 and he never lived up to his Jacksonville numbers other than a good first year there.

 

[PDXChris]

If MW has enough of a breakout for anyone to consider paying him real money then it means either MHJ or McBride had 500 yards. We don't pass enough to support McBride and 2 WRs.

Not necessarily. This was just 16 games too.

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[JohnnyCakes]

If MW has enough of a breakout for anyone to consider paying him real money then it means either MHJ or McBride had 500 yards. We don't pass enough to support McBride and 2 WRs.

which is why we only won 8 games last year...

 

[HairZach]

which is why we only won 8 games last year...

I wouldn't blame the offense. Running is the future based on how defenses evolved, we had the 11th best offense in the league last year based on yards/game and 12th best based off points/game. That was despite MHJ being one of the worst #1 WRs in the league. If our receivers actually played well the offense would be very dangerous.

We lost because of defense. They out performed expectations but they were still very much in the bottom half of the league and significantly worse than the offense. It's odd to see after the last decade of football, but defenses are out performing offenses across the league and have been for the last 2 years. Offenses aren't scoring as much now. So despite our defense looking better now than during the McVay era of offense, last year's was still terrible comparatively.

 

[kerouac9]

Not necessarily. This was just 16 games too.

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I don't know how serious to take this post vs. just a troll. That team (the 2008 Arizona Cardinals) was 2nd in passing and 32nd in rushing. Edge James lead the team in rushing with 514 yards; Tim Hightower had the most carries with 143 and averaged 2.8 YPC. The Cards had 630 passing attempts and 28 sacks vs. 340 rushing attempts (including 18 rushes by Kurt Warner).

Yes, if the offense were entirely different, we could feed three players (who of them HoF-caliber wideouts) 110 targets or more.

Jerheme Urban had 51 targets that year! That's one more than Greg Dortch had last season.

 

[DaHilg]

If he breaks out this season, he'll be eligible for his extension next off-season. If Wilson doubles his production to get close to McBrides numbers, they have to extend his. If he hits Kirk year 4 like numbers, then he's a solid #2.

Wilson

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McBride

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Kirk

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It's easy to see why the Cardinals didn't extend Kirk after year 3 and he never lived up to his Jacksonville numbers other than a good first year there.

No one has answered - why would we anticipate this at all? He’s dropped key passes (Buffalo game prime example but could list more), he’s not fast, doesn’t create separation, not a jump ball WR, decent size but nothing polarizing.. didn’t catch 1/3rd of his targets last year.

Why is anyone high on this guy other than the standard “he’s a cardinal and we drafted him and he seems like a great dude”.

He’s not a WR2, and unless our future WR2 is a speed demon.. then he’s not our WR3 either

 

[kerouac9]

No one has answered - why would we anticipate this at all? He’s dropped key passes (Buffalo game prime example but could list more), he’s not fast, doesn’t create separation, not a jump ball WR, decent size but nothing polarizing.. didn’t catch 1/3rd of his targets last year.

Why is anyone high on this guy other than the standard “he’s a cardinal and we drafted him and he seems like a great dude”.

He’s not a WR2, and unless our future WR2 is a speed demon.. then he’s not our WR3 either

I don't see any reason that Michael Wilson can't have the impact of Rashod Bateman (BAL), Chris Godwin (TB), or (and this might be the top end) Darnell Mooney (ATL).

This team has bigger problems than Michael Wilson.

 

[Krangodnzr]

No one has answered - why would we anticipate this at all? He’s dropped key passes (Buffalo game prime example but could list more), he’s not fast, doesn’t create separation, not a jump ball WR, decent size but nothing polarizing.. didn’t catch 1/3rd of his targets last year.

Why is anyone high on this guy other than the standard “he’s a cardinal and we drafted him and he seems like a great dude”.

He’s not a WR2, and unless our future WR2 is a speed demon.. then he’s not our WR3 either

Tell me you know nothing about NFL WR statistics without saying it.

Larry Fitzgerald Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Larry Fitzgerald. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Fitzgerald caught 61% of the career passed thrown his way.

 

[PDXChris]

I don't know how serious to take this post vs. just a troll. That team (the 2008 Arizona Cardinals) was 2nd in passing and 32nd in rushing. Edge James lead the team in rushing with 514 yards; Tim Hightower had the most carries with 143 and averaged 2.8 YPC. The Cards had 630 passing attempts and 28 sacks vs. 340 rushing attempts (including 18 rushes by Kurt Warner).

Yes, if the offense were entirely different, we could feed three players (who of them HoF-caliber wideouts) 110 targets or more.

Jerheme Urban had 51 targets that year! That's one more than Greg Dortch had last season.

I was just having a little fun there, so like 70% trolling. You get me!

There were actually two other season since that I was going to use that were more realistic. This was one of my favorite seasons, so I used it.

 

[PDXChris]

Tell me you know nothing about NFL WR statistics without saying it.

Larry Fitzgerald Stats, Height, Weight, Position, Draft, College | Pro-Football-Reference.com

Checkout the latest stats for Larry Fitzgerald. Get info about his position, age, height, weight, college, draft, and more on Pro-football-reference.com.

www.pro-football-reference.com

Fitzgerald caught 61% of the career passed thrown his way.

Having you seen who threw him the ball a lot of the time? 61% is remarkable considering most of this list.

* Josh McCown
* Shaun King
* John Navarre
* Kurt Warner
* Tim Hasselbeck
* Tim Rattay
* Matt Leinart
* Brian St. Pierre
* Derek Anderson
* Kevin Kolb
* Max Hall
* John Skelton
* Richard Bartel
* Brian Hoyer
* Ryan Lindley
* Carson Palmer
* Drew Stanton
* Josh Rosen
* Sam Bradford
* Kyler Murray

 

[PDXChris]

I don't see any reason that Michael Wilson can't have the impact of Rashod Bateman (BAL), Chris Godwin (TB), or (and this might be the top end) Darnell Mooney (ATL).

This team has bigger problems than Michael Wilson.

The drop off after Wilson is much more concerning.

 

[PDXChris]

No one has answered - why would we anticipate this at all? He’s dropped key passes (Buffalo game prime example but could list more), he’s not fast, doesn’t create separation, not a jump ball WR, decent size but nothing polarizing.. didn’t catch 1/3rd of his targets last year.

Why is anyone high on this guy other than the standard “he’s a cardinal and we drafted him and he seems like a great dude”.

He’s not a WR2, and unless our future WR2 is a speed demon.. then he’s not our WR3 either

First off, I said if. I've said it a few times, I think he's nice player. He's a 2.5 to me. Slightly better than a 3, but not really a 2. If we get a speed, deep threat, I think Wilson could open up more.

 

[kerouac9]

The drop off after Wilson is much more concerning.

Probably a little more concerning if he's going to be the third option in the offense. I'd love to have him as a legitimate X receiver where we can move Charmin into the slot more often or just into advantageous positions.

I also think his vibes with Kyler are bad.

Maybe there just aren't really targets for a WR2 in this offense with this quarterback. I see no reason why he can't be an effective perimeter target to just open what really is a crowded middle of the field/first 15 yards.

 

[daves]

Sorry for not to specifying what I used. 13th in pass attempts over 20 yards was the stat I used if I recall

Still can't find that stat anywhere. According to this source, Murray was 19th in pass attempts over 20 yards. Burrow was 12th, which corresponds to what you said in your initial post. Perhaps these are just completions, not attempts - but that's even worse as it would mean that Murray is attempting longer passes at an above average rate, but completing them well below average.

Murray is also 25th in passes over 30 yards, and 29th in passes over 40 yards. Ulch.

From the same table, Murray was 26th in air yards per attempt (filtering out those with fewer than 100 completions).

Bottom line... Murray has not had much success throwing deep balls since the first half of 2021. That's a long time to keep hoping the trend will reverse some day.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Having you seen who threw him the ball a lot of the time? 61% is remarkable considering most of this list.

* Josh McCown
* Shaun King
* John Navarre
* Kurt Warner
* Tim Hasselbeck
* Tim Rattay
* Matt Leinart
* Brian St. Pierre
* Derek Anderson
* Kevin Kolb
* Max Hall
* John Skelton
* Richard Bartel
* Brian Hoyer
* Ryan Lindley
* Carson Palmer
* Drew Stanton
* Josh Rosen
* Sam Bradford
* Kyler Murray

I'm not knocking Larry. I'm not knocking the ignorant argument from @DaHilg

Terrell Owens: 57% catch rate, lower than Michael Wilson.
Jerry Rice: 62.4% catch rate.

@DaHilg ready to admit it was an ignorant comment? Or do I need to go on?

Calvin Johnson: 55.7%

 

[PDXChris]

I'm not knocking Larry. I'm not knocking the ignorant argument from @DaHilg

Terrell Owens: 57% catch rate, lower than Michael Wilson.
Jerry Rice: 62.4% catch rate.

@DaHilg ready to admit it was an ignorant comment? Or do I need to go on?

Calvin Johnson: 55.7%

I know you are not! I was trying to help your argument by showing that horrid list.

 

[BACH]

Joke post, yes? You're comparing the "fullback room" to the WR room. I get it. A weak sauce attempt to say the TE and WR rooms are the same room, which they very clearly aren't. You might as well just say you don't believe in the whole room concept.

Like it or not, the TE room and the WR rooms are, ya know, two rooms. Plural. Just because your best receiving option is currently a TE doesn't mean the WR room is solid.

I agree to disagree about high high a need for a speed receiver is and that we need a #2 WR (versus you thinking that is MW). No worries there. As far as disagreeing that the WR room is actually WRs, you can spit in the wind if you want, but you'll just end up with...well, spit on your face in place of egg

Taking your logic to the extreme to prove my point in a funny way. Clearly unsuccessfully

I never said it was the same room.

But what I’m saying is that you have a team that runs 12 personal more than 29 other teams. But also team that runs 60% passing plays from 12. The team that runs 13 personel more than any team.

The TEs are part of the passing game no matter how you look at the rooms. And the TE room is very good.

That is a factor in discussing needs in the passing game.

 

[BACH]

The offensive line also has an impact on the receiving room, but they don’t have any impact on the quality of receivers.

If encourage you to look around the NFL and find a room 1-4 that’s weaker than ours. I’m not even sure SF’s room is worse than ours.

I do not dispute that.(I do think you can find 5-7 worse WR rooms, but irrelevant)

My point is that is has a smaller impact on a team that runs 3rd most 12 and the most 13 formations.

Would love if the 2nd or 3rd rounder was spend on one of the speed WRs. Noel or Bond