Wild Card Tie-Breaker Scenarios

[Cheesebeef]

If the LA Rams game is a must win for us to get in, I am okay with that.

Basically, we would be just starting the playoffs one week earlier. Are we good enough to win in the playoffs, or not? Answering that question in LA is ok.

Win or lose against SF, that will be the scenario. Personally, I think GB will have to beat Chicago. But counting on that to make the playoffs is pretty lame. A win over SF and the Rams is how we really want to do it.

i could care less how we get to the playoffs. I just want another week of skin in the game to look forward to.

and I really don’t think we beat a Rams team that will have something to play for. They just own us and losing to them to end a season and miss the playoffs would just suck beyond words.

 

[ajcardfan]

i could care less how we get to the playoffs. I just want another week of skin in the game to look forward to.

and I really don’t think we beat a Rams team that will have something to play for. They just own us and losing to them to end a season and miss the playoffs would just suck beyond words.

I would take anything that got us into the playoffs without needing to beat the Rams. But if that doesn't happen, I just don't see it as a disaster.

 

[juza76]

Don’t worry... you weren’t the only one to say something ludicrous to talk themselves into the idea that the Packers would help us. I saw another poster say they might play all their starters because it’s a “rivalry” game. That was pretty myopic as well.

I guess It was me, but I didnt say anything about no resting the starters
I dont know if is ludicrous having a team that clinched the bye winning the final game of the season
I added also that is likely the heated rivalry can have an impact on game like that one, even some of the second string used can play at high level

Actually we have the Bengals winning with some back up players the match Vs the steelers

 

[TheCardinal]

let me see if i got this right-

Cardinal Fan Rooting Interests next week in order of importance:

obvs: Cards over SF

then:

JAX over CHI

then:

NO over MIN
DET over TB
TEN over GB

LA over SEA

i think that last one can go either way, but if the Cards need to beat the Rams the final week, then i want LA coming off a win with the playoffs clinched

I think this summarizes it pretty well. I would only say SEA over LA is better.

A Seattle win gives us insurance should GB then beat Tennessee later that night, in forcing the Packers to have to play hard against Chicago. The New Orleans win just eliminates the Vikings and gives us options in an 8-8 disaster scenario, but doesn’t affect the GB Week 17 effort.

Also, a Rams loss would be absolutely critical if we lost to SF the day earlier. Imagine the meltdown: Cards lose to the 49ers, Bears beat the Jaguars, Bucs beat the Lions. *BUT* if the Rams lose to Seattle, we would regain control of our own destiny for Week 17.

Likely or not, if the Rams finish 0-2, NO MATTER WHAT ELSE HAPPENS, we clinch a playoff berth.

 

[TheCardinal]

On a side note, if we’re worrying about the Rams’ effort in Week 17, the Rams would clinch at least a playoff spot in Week 16 with any of the following:

LA over SEA
JAX over CHI
ARI over SF

Yes, an Arizona WIN would clinch it for the Rams.

 

[Ronin]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Ronin]

Kyle Odegard
@Kyle_Odegard
·
12m

Cardinals have a 64.9% chance to make the playoffs, per
@fboutsiders
.

 

[WisconsinCard]

I still wouldn't be confident if we were 99.99%. I suffer from PTCFSD, post traumatic cardinal fan stress disorder.

 

[football karma]

On a side note, if we’re worrying about the Rams’ effort in Week 17, the Rams would clinch at least a playoff spot in Week 16 with any of the following:

LA over SEA
JAX over CHI
ARI over SF

Yes, an Arizona WIN would clinch it for the Rams.

thats interesting, lets assume AZ, SEA and CHI all win

LA backs into a playoff berth --

how hard do the Rams play for seeding in week 17?

 

[football karma]

so my new favorite teams next week:

Cardinals

then:

JAX over CHI

then:

**holds nose**
Seahawks over Rams

then:

NO over MIN
DET over TB
TEN over GB

 

[Cheesebeef]

thats interesting, lets assume AZ, SEA and CHI all win

LA backs into a playoff berth --

how hard do the Rams play for seeding in week 17?

depends. If they can put themselves in position to play Washington, my bet is they go all out. If not, maybe they take their foot off the gas. But even then, probably not because that assumes they lost to Seattle and won’t want to go into the playoffs on a three game losing streak playing their worst football of the year.

 

[TheCardinal]

thats interesting, lets assume AZ, SEA and CHI all win

LA backs into a playoff berth --

how hard do the Rams play for seeding in week 17?

Seahawks would clinch the West. However, regardless of what TB does, the Rams could still get the coveted 5-seed. In that scenario, so could we.

 

[WisconsinCard]

If the rams lose to Sea, wouldn't they want to beat us or we would pass them up?

 

[daves]

depends. If they can put themselves in position to play Washington, my bet is they go all out. If not, maybe they take their foot off the gas. But even then, probably not because that assumes they lost to Seattle and won’t want to go into the playoffs on a three game losing streak playing their worst football of the year.

Bahahaha... look at you, talking about the Rams taking their foot off the gas if they don't have a chance to play Washington, after calling my take "infinitessimally" stupid when i suggested they could treat the week 17 game as an effective BYE week if they had a chance to guarantee a playoff game against Washington. You blathered on about home field advantage in a season where HFA does not exist. At least now you recognize that the chance to play Washington is worth something, and resting starters for a half or more is worth something, even if you still fail to recognize that HFA is worth nothing. (Update: home teams are now 108-115-1 this season.)

That scenario is still alive, though becoming unlikely. It's easy to see if you use the Playoffs Machine, set "Tiebreakers Criteria" to "Win %", then manually override to give Tampa Bay a loss next week at Detroit*, the Rams a win at Seattle, and the Cardinals a loss vs. the 49ers. It will show the Rams with "Home Field Advantage" vs. the Buccaneers in round one of the playoffs, the Bears with the 7 seed, and the Cardinals out of the playoffs.

But if you then change the Rams win vs. the Cardinals in week 17 into a Rams loss... The Rams' playoff matchup changes to Washington (and the Cardinals get into the playoffs).

Sure, these outcomes in week 16 are unlikely now. (There were a lot of additional ways this scenario could've come up before week 15.) But the point was valid - IF the scenario came up, it would make perfect sense for the Rams to treat their week 17 game vs. the Cardinals as a BYE.

...dbs

*The scenario could also arise if Tampa Bay beats Detroit, then loses earlier in the day on week 17 to Atlanta - but that would be even less likely since in that case they would be playing to win the Atlanta game for their own shot at facing Washington in the playoffs.

 

[daves]

If the rams lose to Sea, wouldn't they want to beat us or we would pass them up?

Not if the Cardinals have already lost to San Francisco by that point, and a couple other games fall the right way in week 16. See my previous post!

...dave

 

[daves]

Another situation in which the Rams might choose to treat week 17 as a BYE is if the Rams beat Seattle, the Cardinals lose to the 49ers, and Tampa wins both of their remaining games. (Assume all other games are won by the team with the better record.)

In this scenario, with a win over the Cardinals the Rams would take the #3 seed and face the Seahawks again in Los Angeles (if they're even allowed to play in Los Angeles at that point!). With a loss to the Cardinals, the Rams would take the #6 seed and face the Seahawks again in Seattle. Do they care where the game is played? Maybe. Do they care so much that they'd forego the opportunity to take a virtual BYE week against the Cardinals before facing the Seahawks? Maybe, maybe not.

...dave

 

[Cheesebeef]

Bahahaha... look at you, talking about the Rams taking their foot off the gas if they don't have a chance to play Washington, after calling my take "infinitessimally" stupid when i suggested they could treat the week 17 game as an effective BYE week if they had a chance to guarantee a playoff game against Washington. You blathered on about home field advantage in a season where HFA does not exist. At least now you recognize that the chance to play Washington is worth something, and resting starters for a half or more is worth something, even if you still fail to recognize that HFA is worth nothing. (Update: home teams are now 108-115-1 this season.)

That scenario is still alive, though becoming unlikely. It's easy to see if you use the Playoffs Machine, set "Tiebreakers Criteria" to "Win %", then manually override to give Tampa Bay a loss next week at Detroit*, the Rams a win at Seattle, and the Cardinals a loss vs. the 49ers. It will show the Rams with "Home Field Advantage" vs. the Buccaneers in round one of the playoffs, the Bears with the 7 seed, and the Cardinals out of the playoffs.

But if you then change the Rams win vs. the Cardinals in week 17 into a Rams loss... The Rams' playoff matchup changes to Washington (and the Cardinals get into the playoffs).

Sure, these outcomes in week 16 are unlikely now. (There were a lot of additional ways this scenario could've come up before week 15.) But the point was valid - IF the scenario came up, it would make perfect sense for the Rams to treat their week 17 game vs. the Cardinals as a BYE.

...dbs

*The scenario could also arise if Tampa Bay beats Detroit, then loses earlier in the day on week 17 to Atlanta - but that would be even less likely since in that case they would be playing to win the Atlanta game for their own shot at facing Washington in the playoffs.

My supposition was made before the unfathomable loss to the Jets, genius when they would still have had a shot at the division in Week 17. There’s a world of difference between sabotaging yourself for a division title to choose to willingly play on the road for the likely majority of the playoffs Dave.

it was and still is idiotic to think a team with a shot to stay home for two playoff games and maybe all of them depending on what happened elsewhere in the playoffs would sandbag their last game to willingly play on the road. That scenario now wouldn’t be in play.

 

[TheCardinal]

Not if the Cardinals have already lost to San Francisco by that point, and a couple other games fall the right way in week 16. See my previous post!

...dave

Even if we lose to SF, we would still be able to pass the Rams provided they lose to SEA. At 9-7, we would beat the Rams in a tie.

At 10-6, we beat the Rams 1-on-1 but not in a 3-way tie with Seattle (we would be second place in the West, ahead of Seattle).

 

[Cheesebeef]

Another situation in which the Rams might choose to treat week 17 as a BYE is if the Rams beat Seattle, the Cardinals lose to the 49ers, and Tampa wins both of their remaining games. (Assume all other games are won by the team with the better record.)

In this scenario, with a win over the Cardinals the Rams would take the #3 seed and face the Seahawks again in Los Angeles (if they're even allowed to play in Los Angeles at that point!). With a loss to the Cardinals, the Rams would take the #6 seed and face the Seahawks again in Seattle. Do they care where the game is played? Maybe. Do they care so much that they'd forego the opportunity to take a virtual BYE week against the Cardinals before facing the Seahawks? Maybe, maybe not.

...dave

You are living in fantasy land where you keep coming up with reasons that guys would rather travel in the middle of a full blown pandemic as opposed to not having to go anywhere and being able to have more control of their own safety and not losing prep time to travel throughout the playoffs.

not to mention you’re home win-loss record for league completely ignores that the Rams are 5-1 at home this season and only 4-4 on the road.

But yeah... I’m sure if they had the chance to lock up the 2 or 3 seed and HFA they’d willingly tank to play on the road throughout the playoffs in the middle of a pandemic.

 

[WisconsinCard]

Not if the Cardinals have already lost to San Francisco by that point, and a couple other games fall the right way in week 16. See my previous post!

...dave

Well true, I should have added that is assuming we beat san Fran.

 

[daves]

My supposition was made before the unfathomable loss to the Jets, genius when they would still have had a shot at the division in Week 17. There’s a world of difference between sabotaging yourself for a division title to choose to willingly play on the road for the likely majority of the playoffs Dave.

That is EXACTLY the scenario I described, which is STILL IN PLAY. With the combination of outcomes I described, the Rams could be the #3 seed division winner and play Tampa Bay, or the #5 seed wild card and play Washington.

They could effectively get a BYE week by resting all key players in week 17 against the Cardinals... But somehow you still believe that having home field advantage is more important, in a season where away teams have a 7-game edge over home teams, and for all we know Los Angeles will soon follow the lead of San Francisco and prohibit the Rams from playing in L.A. anyway.

it was and still is idiotic to think a team with a shot to stay home for two playoff games and maybe all of them depending on what happened elsewhere in the playoffs would sandbag their last game to willingly play on the road. That scenario now wouldn’t be in play.

It would be in play if you had comprehended my post and the scenario i outlined.

...dbs

 

[daves]

Even if we lose to SF, we would still be able to pass the Rams provided they lose to SEA. At 9-7, we would beat the Rams in a tie.

At 10-6, we beat the Rams 1-on-1 but not in a 3-way tie with Seattle (we would be second place in the West, ahead of Seattle).

TheCardinal, your understanding of the tie-breaking procedures is awesome! Really enjoy your posts on the subject.

In the scenario I was referencing, the Rams beat Seattle in week 16.

...dave

 

[daves]

You are living in fantasy land where you keep coming up with reasons that guys would rather travel in the middle of a full blown pandemic as opposed to not having to go anywhere and being able to have more control of their own safety and not losing prep time to travel throughout the playoffs.

Aparently in reality, those issues have not impacted a team's ability to win. And even with a win, as the #3 seed the Rams would travel in every other round of the playoffs after the opening game, barring the Bears beating the Saints or Seahawks losing in Washington.

So the choice facing the Rams in this scenario would be (a) rest players, avoid injury, and play Washington on the road, or (b) go all-out, risk injury, and play Tampa Bay at home. Plan (a) looks to me like the easiest path to the 2nd round of the playoffs.

not to mention you’re home win-loss record for league completely ignores that the Rams are 5-1 at home this season and only 4-4 on the road.

Ohh, facts, and good ones! But in this scenario, if they win in week 17, the Rams play the Buccaneers who are 5-2 on the road. If they lose, they'd play Washington*, who's 3-4 at home and generally a much easier out than Tampa Bay.

...dbs

* Or maybe even one of the even crappier NFC East teams!

 

[Cheesebeef]

I was being a douche. See the Kliff celebrating the Eagles TD for apology @daves .

Just think you’re trying to wish something very unlikely into existence but I didn’t need to be such a douche about it.

 

[daves]

I was being a douche. See the Kliff celebrating the Eagles TD for apology @daves .

It happens! As always, 'sall good, man!

Just think you’re trying to wish something very unlikely into existence but I didn’t need to be such a douche about it.

I'm not wishing for it... in fact, losing to the 49ers, then backing into the playoffs because the Rams took the game off is hardly an exciting prospect. I originally brought up the possible scenario in response to @SoonerLou , who said, "
Maybe the Rams have the division locked up/3rd seed and rest come week 17?". I was just suggesting that potentially they might not even need to have the division locked up to decide that rest was the best course.

You're certainly right that the scenario is unlikely to arise, and if it did, conventional wisdom would be to try for the higher seed. Just saying that in this weird season with no HFA and the #4 seed being the worst team in the playoffs, there's much more appeal to being the #5 seed than usual, so there's a good case to be made that resting up in week 17 is the most prudent course of action for the Rams.

...dave