Monday, October 4, 2004
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Stop calling the Eastern Conference the Leastern. The Pistons are the reigning NBA champions, and this year, the Eastern Conference's top two teams – Detroit and Indiana – may be the best two teams in the NBA, period.
Remember when we used to claim that the Western Conference Finals was the real NBA Finals? This season, the Eastern Conference Finals will be the series to watch. The West has gotten weaker, while the Pistons (the champs) and Pacers (the league leaders in wins last year) both got better. Add Shaquille O'Neal to the mix in Miami, and the East is as buff as it's been this century.
Let's not get carried away either. After the Pistons, Pacers and Heat, pick any team in the East that could qualify for the playoffs in the West. The Knicks? Celtics? 76ers? Nets? Please.
This year in the East, there's the very good, the so-so and the ugly. The gap between the second-best team and the fifth-best team is stunning. Short of the Pistons, Pacers and Heat, it's a stretch to guarantee any other team will make the playoffs.
It's pretty safe to predict who will be the worst team in the league, however. The Charlotte Bobcats' likely starting five has a combined 23 starts in their NBA career. If they don't challenge the 76ers' record 73 losses … no one will.
NBA training camps start today. Over the course of the next few weeks, some of our assumptions here will have to be changed, but if you want a sneak peak into who looks good and who doesn't going into camp -- on paper at least -- Insider provides a primer.
THE CONTENDERS
Key Additions: Antonio McDyess, Carlos Delfino, Derrick Coleman
Key Subtractions: Mehmet Okur, Corliss Williamson, Mike James
Skinny: The defending champs are bringing back virtually the entire team intact – with one important addition. Pistons president Joe Dumars thinks that teams may have slept a little on McDyess. His knee is reportedly 100 percent healthy, and sources claim he's looked great in offseason workouts. If he can stay healthy, McDyess gives the Pistons a proven low-post scorer, something they really lacked last season. And don't forget about the team's two first-round picks in 2003: Darko Milicic and Delfino. Word is that coach Larry Brown wants to steepen Darko's learning curve, giving him 10-15 minutes a night this season. Delfino, who played in the Euroleague Final Four last year and on the Olympic gold-medal team, is experienced enough to step right in as Richard Hamilton's replacement off the bench – another option the team sorely lacked this year. The only question for the Pistons? With Brown coming off an emotional spring and a brutal summer, will he stick around if the team gets off to a rocky start?
Key Additions: Stephen Jackson, David Harrison
Key Subtractions: Al Harrington
Skinny: The Pacers took a calculated risk this summer by swapping Harrington for Jackson. Larry Bird realizes Reggie Miller is on the downside of his career and wanted a big, athletic two guard whom Rick Carlisle could groom into the role. Bird also believes that Jonathan Bender is ready to take over Harrington's sixth man duties. Bender has more size, talent and versatility – but can he stay healthy for 82 games? If Bender delivers, the Pacers will be tougher than they were last year. And don't overlook the rookie Harrison, like 28 other NBA teams did. The Pacers were so impressed with Harrison's play this summer that they believe he'll see real minutes backing up Jeff Foster and Scot Pollard at center this year.
Key Additions: Shaquille O'Neal, Christian Laettner
Key Subtractions: Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, Caron Butler, Rafer Alston
Skinny: Shaq changes everything. He's the most dominant big man in the East by a mile. Dwyane Wade is coming off a heroic rookie playoff performance, and rookie high-school phenom Dorell Wright turned heads in the summer. But realistically? If Shaq and Kobe couldn't get it done with Karl Malone and Gary Payton, how are Shaq and Wade supposed to run the gamut with their supporting cast? It looks like a lot of '90s stars have decided to retire in Florida; Laettner, Eddie Jones and Wesley Person will try their best just to stay in front of somebody. But the truth is that the Heat are so thin they're one Shaq or Wade serious injury away from the lottery.
Key Additions: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Williams
Key Subtractions: Dikembe Mutombo, Othella Harrington, Frank Williams
Skinny: The Knicks paid good money to get this high up in the rankings. For $100-plus million, you better be able to win some games in the East. Had they landed Erick Dampier, they would've been a force. Without him, they're all perimeter with a super-soft core. To top things off, there are some in New York that suggest Allan Houston's days as a superstar are over after last year's serious injury. Still, a starting five of Stephon Marbury, Crawford, Tim Thomas, Kurt Thomas and Nazr Mohammed – along with Penny Hardaway, Vin Baker and Jerome Williams – should have enough cash to bribe somebody into laying down for them.
ON THE RISE
Key Additions: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Kelvin Cato, Tony Battie, Hedo Turkoglu
Key Subtractions: Tracy McGrady, Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue, Drew Gooden
Skinny: No team has changed their roster or image more in the course of a summer. Last year, the Magic had the league's worst record despite being the home of one of the league's top-five stars. With T-Mac out and the Franchise in, GM John Weisbrod is trying desperately to change the way the Magic play basketball. Weisbrod has jettisoned off the softies and brought in players he believes will play the right way. We'll see if it works. Francis, Cato, Turkoglu, Battie and even rookie Dwight Howard have a history of underperforming when the going gets tough. The Magic hope that a new team, different philosophy and hungry head coach will get the team going in the right direction. But if things start off rocky, watch out. Stevie can pout with the best of them. The X-factor this year, like every year this decade, is Grant Hill. He's reportedly healthy and playing his best basketball since he hurt his ankle. If it's true, and he stays that way, the Magic have a great shot of making the playoffs. If Hill is on crutches by November, it could be another long year in Orlando.
Key Additions: Eric Snow, Drew Gooden, Luke Jackson, Aleksandar Pavlovic
Key Subtractions: Carlos Boozer, Tony Battie, Eric Williams
Skinny: GM Jim Paxson made the dumbest move of the summer when he let Carlos Boozer out of the last year of his deal with a wink-wink, below market value contract extension promise that he knew he couldn't enforce. When Boozer bolted for Utah, the sky looked like it was falling in Cleveland. But Paxson has rebounded nicely. The team played much better when they traded for a real point guard, Jeff McInnis, before the trade deadline. Snow's an upgrade from there and a perfect mentor for LeBron James. Gooden is an adequate replacement for Boozer if he can keep his head in the game. Both Jackson and Pavlovic have a shot at being nice wing men for LeBron. But let's not kid ourselves. The Cavs' season hinges on one guy. If LeBron continues to improve, he's going to carry the Cavs to the playoffs on his back. He looked like the best player in the world when he was on the floor for Team USA this summer. Paul Silas won't make the same mistake Larry Brown did and leave LeBron on the bench waving towels.
Key Additions: Antawn Jamison
Key Subtractions: Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laettner
Skinny: Injuries and new offense were too much for the Wizards to overcome last season. But there's hope that former Nets offensive guru Eddie Jordan has the tools he now needs to make the Wizards one of the hottest offenses in the league this year. Jamison is a scoring machine who can play both inside and out. The Wizards have longed for a guy who can score in the paint. Put him on the floor with a healthy Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes in a contract year, and a reportedly buffed-up Kwame Brown, and the Wizards may have just enough juice to get out and run this year. There aren't many guarantees in the East this year, but with two of the worst teams in the league in the Southeast Division with them, they should be able to run up enough wins to have a good shot at a playoff seed.
Key Additions: Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Frank Williams, Eric Piatkowski
Key Subtractions: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Willams, Scottie Pippen (retirement)
Skinny: Why is GM John Paxson smiling after a disastrous rookie season heading the Chicago Terri-bulls? One, Eddy Curry is off his Big Mac and Kool-Aid diet and reported to camp in shape for the first time in his career. Two, both Curry and Tyson Chandler – who were drafted straight out of high school together in 2001 – are in contract years, meaning that for the first time in four seasons, their future isn't guaranteed in the millions. Third, he dumped several perceived problems this summer and swapped them for two rookies, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng, who have the requisite toughness and winning pedigree he's been looking for on his team. Finally, he made himself a nice free-agent coup, getting the best and toughest international player not in the NBA, Nocioni, to agree to leave the Euroleague for the Bulls. What he has now is perhaps the most talented, albeit youngest, squad the Bulls have had since MJ hung up his sneakers. Of course, we've said that before with little to no results (we picked the Bulls to finish sixth in the East last year). Why will this year be different? A tougher coach, fewer egos, more winners and plenty of incentive to play the right way. Forty wins this year and Paxson can finally sleep easy knowing that his team still has plenty of room to grow. Anything less and either Curry or Chandler will be wearing a new uniform next season – if not sooner.
SLIPPING?
Key Additions: Nenad Krstic, Eric Williams, Ron Mercer, Jacque Vaughn
Key Subtractions: Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, Rodney Rogers
Skinny: Don't blame GM Rod Thorn for the literal dismantling of a team that played in the Finals two of the past three seasons. New owner Bruce Ratner, focused only on the bottom line, shipped Martin to Denver when his asking price became too high and then shipped Kittles to the Clippers to get even further under the cap. Their replacements, Williams and Mercer, don't really inspire confidence. Factor in that Jason Kidd will miss training camp and the start of the regular season rehabbing from offseason knee surgery; Richard Jefferson, the one guy Ratner was willing to pay, looked awful in the Olympics; and Alonzo Mourning's comeback has serious questions, and the Nets could be in for one of the biggest free falls of the season. If Kidd demands a trade (it's probably only a matter of time) … it will only get uglier. As much as we love Jefferson, he isn't MJ and can't challenge the NBA to a 1-on-5 contest.
Key Additions: Mike James, Maurice Williams, Zaza Pachulia
Key Subtractions: Brian Skinner, Damon Jones
Skinny: The Bucks were the East's Cinderella team last season, so why are they stuck all the way down here without any significant changes to their roster? Two things stand out. One, the future of T.J. Ford is very much in doubt. Ford was the motor in the Bucks' upbeat offense last season. When he went down with a serious back injury, the Bucks stumbled. GM Larry Harris's two major free agent additions, James and Williams, are the best indication yet that the Bucks aren't confident that Ford will return this season. James and Williams are decent replacements, but neither player gives the Bucks what Ford did. Second, the Bucks lost some toughness up front when they let Skinner go. They'll try to replace that with second-year international big man Pachulia, who showed a lot of promise this summer but doesn't have the experience or grittiness that Skinner had. The bottom line is that the Bucks are stuck in the toughest division, by far, in the East. Detroit and Indiana are elite teams. Cleveland and Chicago continue to improve. The playoffs are still a good possibility in Milwaukee, but it's going to be a difficult feat to recreate.
Key Additions: Corliss Williamson, Andre Iguodala, Brian Skinner, Kevin Ollie
Key Subtractions: Eric Snow, Derrick Coleman, Greg Buckner
Skinny: The Sixers have a new head coach, Jim O'Brien, a new offensive and defensive philosophy and a happy Allen Iverson. So what's wrong? O'Brien is really going to be relying heavily on four young players to produce this year. Whenever we hear that, the red flags start popping up. GM Billy King traded away Snow after O'Brien said he'd prefer to play Iverson at the point and young players like Willie Green, John Salmons and the rookie Iguodala at the two. All three are talented, all three have looked good in the summer league, but they're also very unproven. Snow was the rock that counterbalanced Iverson's huge mood swings. As much as we like these guys, I'm not sure they're ready for that just yet. The one young player we do have more confidence in is big man Samuel Dalembert. Toward the end of last season, he looked like he was ready to turn himself into a big-time center. If he does, the Sixers front line will be very strong, especially with the addition of Williamson and Skinner. If he struggles, as young players sometimes do after coming off breakout years, the Sixers could be in trouble. The Sixers are the toughest team in the league to get a handle on. They've got the coaching and the talent to be very good. But there are huge question marks. And if Iverson's body breaks down after taking a pretty good pounding in the Olympics (there's a definite trend here pointing in that direction), things will go downhill very fast.
Key Additions: Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West
Key Subtractions: Chucky Atkins, Chris Mihm, Jumaine Jones
Skinny: Danny Ainge has burned Jim O'Brien's Celtics to the ground and within a span of less than 18 months, turned the Celtics into an unusual mix of veterans (Paul Pierce, Mark Blount and Payton) combined with a plethora of young players (Jiri Welsch, Marcus Banks, Kendrick Perkins, Jefferson, Allen and West). How a team like that will mesh under new head coach Doc Rivers is really anyone's guess. They probably don't belong in either the "On the Rise" or "Slipping" category. If we had a "Who Knows", they'd be at the top of the list. The potential problems seem to outweigh the upside . . this year at least. . . which is why the Celtics ended up here. Five players on the roster have one or less years of experience in the league. Two of the big guys they'll rely on (Perkins and Jefferson) never played a game of college basketball. Pierce, Welsch, Blount and Raef LaFrentz (if he can ever stay healthy) are all capable of putting together a nice run. But several of the veterans on the roster, read Payton and Ricky Davis, have a history of causing problems if things don't go their way. The Celtics are the wild card in the East. If things come together for Doc, they could be a surprise contender. If they go poorly, it could get very, very ugly.
LOTTERY BOUND
Key Additions: Rafer Alston, Rafael Araujo, Loren Woods
Key Subtractions: None
Skinny: Want to know why Vince Carter wants out of Toronto and a slew of higher profile GMs turned down the job in Toronto before ownership finally settled on Rob Babcock? The Raptors are capped out and have few assets to make the enormous changes this team really needs to make. Babcock did the best he could this summer: drafting a center that could step in and play immediately and adding a point guard coming off a successful playoff run. But everything depends on Carter. At this point, that's scary. Nowithstanding his history of injuries when the going gets tough, is his heart really in it this year? (Has it really ever been?) The future in Toronto is power forward Chris Bosh, who reportedly has bulked up this summer in an effort to help the Raptors out in the middle. If everything goes right in Toronto – Carter stays healthy, Bosh can play center, Alston plays well at the point, Marshall has a repeat of last season – the Raptors have the talent and depth to be a playoff team. But since when has everything went right in Toronto?
Key Additions: Antoine Walker, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Peja Drobnjak
Key Subtractions: Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, Bob Sura, Alan Henderson
Skinny: The Hawks blew up their roster last February when they traded two staples, Theo Ratliff and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, for what ended up to be a load of expiring contracts. They finished the process this summer: swapping Terry for Walker, who just happens to have an expiring contract of his own, and refusing to spend their money in free agency. If fiscal responsibility won you basketball games, the Hawks would be atop the East right now. As it stands, they should be decent. Walker and Harrington will give them a nice one-two scoring punch on the front line. Walker is highly motivated. He's coming off the worst season of his career into a contract year. Harrington is finally getting his first chance to be a full-time starter and has much to prove. But center and the backcourt are huge question marks. Tony Delk and Kenny Anderson are manning the point, a position neither has played well in years. Rookie Josh Childress has a promising future, but he'll be drinking from a fire hydrant in Year One. Drobnjak was the starting center for the Clippers last season. We all know how that went. The Hawks are heading in the right direction, but it's going to be a slow slog.
Key Additions: Emeka Okafor, Melvin Ely, Gerald Wallace, Jason Kapono
Key Subtractions: None
Skinny: GM and head coach Bernie Bickerstaff used to coach the Harlem Globetrotters. But after seeing the roster he put together for the Bobcats' inaugural season, you wonder if it wasn't the Washington Generals that he's trying to invoke. Okafor was a great pickup in the draft – a solid, respectable big man to build the team around. The expansion draft yielded several young, promising but highly unproven players, and the trade for Ely will help shore up the front line. But without a solid starting point guard (Jason Hart and Brevin Knight will share the responsibility) and only one solid perimeter shooter (Kapono), where will the points come from? Bickerstaff has put together a young athletic team that will play hard every night, turn in some highlight reel plays and be capable of playing sound defense. However, if they win more than 10 games this season, it will be a miracle.
By Chad Ford
NBA Insider
Stop calling the Eastern Conference the Leastern. The Pistons are the reigning NBA champions, and this year, the Eastern Conference's top two teams – Detroit and Indiana – may be the best two teams in the NBA, period.
Remember when we used to claim that the Western Conference Finals was the real NBA Finals? This season, the Eastern Conference Finals will be the series to watch. The West has gotten weaker, while the Pistons (the champs) and Pacers (the league leaders in wins last year) both got better. Add Shaquille O'Neal to the mix in Miami, and the East is as buff as it's been this century.
Let's not get carried away either. After the Pistons, Pacers and Heat, pick any team in the East that could qualify for the playoffs in the West. The Knicks? Celtics? 76ers? Nets? Please.
This year in the East, there's the very good, the so-so and the ugly. The gap between the second-best team and the fifth-best team is stunning. Short of the Pistons, Pacers and Heat, it's a stretch to guarantee any other team will make the playoffs.
It's pretty safe to predict who will be the worst team in the league, however. The Charlotte Bobcats' likely starting five has a combined 23 starts in their NBA career. If they don't challenge the 76ers' record 73 losses … no one will.
NBA training camps start today. Over the course of the next few weeks, some of our assumptions here will have to be changed, but if you want a sneak peak into who looks good and who doesn't going into camp -- on paper at least -- Insider provides a primer.
THE CONTENDERS
Key Additions: Antonio McDyess, Carlos Delfino, Derrick Coleman
Key Subtractions: Mehmet Okur, Corliss Williamson, Mike James
Skinny: The defending champs are bringing back virtually the entire team intact – with one important addition. Pistons president Joe Dumars thinks that teams may have slept a little on McDyess. His knee is reportedly 100 percent healthy, and sources claim he's looked great in offseason workouts. If he can stay healthy, McDyess gives the Pistons a proven low-post scorer, something they really lacked last season. And don't forget about the team's two first-round picks in 2003: Darko Milicic and Delfino. Word is that coach Larry Brown wants to steepen Darko's learning curve, giving him 10-15 minutes a night this season. Delfino, who played in the Euroleague Final Four last year and on the Olympic gold-medal team, is experienced enough to step right in as Richard Hamilton's replacement off the bench – another option the team sorely lacked this year. The only question for the Pistons? With Brown coming off an emotional spring and a brutal summer, will he stick around if the team gets off to a rocky start?
Key Additions: Stephen Jackson, David Harrison
Key Subtractions: Al Harrington
Skinny: The Pacers took a calculated risk this summer by swapping Harrington for Jackson. Larry Bird realizes Reggie Miller is on the downside of his career and wanted a big, athletic two guard whom Rick Carlisle could groom into the role. Bird also believes that Jonathan Bender is ready to take over Harrington's sixth man duties. Bender has more size, talent and versatility – but can he stay healthy for 82 games? If Bender delivers, the Pacers will be tougher than they were last year. And don't overlook the rookie Harrison, like 28 other NBA teams did. The Pacers were so impressed with Harrison's play this summer that they believe he'll see real minutes backing up Jeff Foster and Scot Pollard at center this year.
Key Additions: Shaquille O'Neal, Christian Laettner
Key Subtractions: Lamar Odom, Brian Grant, Caron Butler, Rafer Alston
Skinny: Shaq changes everything. He's the most dominant big man in the East by a mile. Dwyane Wade is coming off a heroic rookie playoff performance, and rookie high-school phenom Dorell Wright turned heads in the summer. But realistically? If Shaq and Kobe couldn't get it done with Karl Malone and Gary Payton, how are Shaq and Wade supposed to run the gamut with their supporting cast? It looks like a lot of '90s stars have decided to retire in Florida; Laettner, Eddie Jones and Wesley Person will try their best just to stay in front of somebody. But the truth is that the Heat are so thin they're one Shaq or Wade serious injury away from the lottery.
Key Additions: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Williams
Key Subtractions: Dikembe Mutombo, Othella Harrington, Frank Williams
Skinny: The Knicks paid good money to get this high up in the rankings. For $100-plus million, you better be able to win some games in the East. Had they landed Erick Dampier, they would've been a force. Without him, they're all perimeter with a super-soft core. To top things off, there are some in New York that suggest Allan Houston's days as a superstar are over after last year's serious injury. Still, a starting five of Stephon Marbury, Crawford, Tim Thomas, Kurt Thomas and Nazr Mohammed – along with Penny Hardaway, Vin Baker and Jerome Williams – should have enough cash to bribe somebody into laying down for them.
ON THE RISE
Key Additions: Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson, Kelvin Cato, Tony Battie, Hedo Turkoglu
Key Subtractions: Tracy McGrady, Juwan Howard, Tyronn Lue, Drew Gooden
Skinny: No team has changed their roster or image more in the course of a summer. Last year, the Magic had the league's worst record despite being the home of one of the league's top-five stars. With T-Mac out and the Franchise in, GM John Weisbrod is trying desperately to change the way the Magic play basketball. Weisbrod has jettisoned off the softies and brought in players he believes will play the right way. We'll see if it works. Francis, Cato, Turkoglu, Battie and even rookie Dwight Howard have a history of underperforming when the going gets tough. The Magic hope that a new team, different philosophy and hungry head coach will get the team going in the right direction. But if things start off rocky, watch out. Stevie can pout with the best of them. The X-factor this year, like every year this decade, is Grant Hill. He's reportedly healthy and playing his best basketball since he hurt his ankle. If it's true, and he stays that way, the Magic have a great shot of making the playoffs. If Hill is on crutches by November, it could be another long year in Orlando.
Key Additions: Eric Snow, Drew Gooden, Luke Jackson, Aleksandar Pavlovic
Key Subtractions: Carlos Boozer, Tony Battie, Eric Williams
Skinny: GM Jim Paxson made the dumbest move of the summer when he let Carlos Boozer out of the last year of his deal with a wink-wink, below market value contract extension promise that he knew he couldn't enforce. When Boozer bolted for Utah, the sky looked like it was falling in Cleveland. But Paxson has rebounded nicely. The team played much better when they traded for a real point guard, Jeff McInnis, before the trade deadline. Snow's an upgrade from there and a perfect mentor for LeBron James. Gooden is an adequate replacement for Boozer if he can keep his head in the game. Both Jackson and Pavlovic have a shot at being nice wing men for LeBron. But let's not kid ourselves. The Cavs' season hinges on one guy. If LeBron continues to improve, he's going to carry the Cavs to the playoffs on his back. He looked like the best player in the world when he was on the floor for Team USA this summer. Paul Silas won't make the same mistake Larry Brown did and leave LeBron on the bench waving towels.
Key Additions: Antawn Jamison
Key Subtractions: Jerry Stackhouse, Christian Laettner
Skinny: Injuries and new offense were too much for the Wizards to overcome last season. But there's hope that former Nets offensive guru Eddie Jordan has the tools he now needs to make the Wizards one of the hottest offenses in the league this year. Jamison is a scoring machine who can play both inside and out. The Wizards have longed for a guy who can score in the paint. Put him on the floor with a healthy Gilbert Arenas, Larry Hughes in a contract year, and a reportedly buffed-up Kwame Brown, and the Wizards may have just enough juice to get out and run this year. There aren't many guarantees in the East this year, but with two of the worst teams in the league in the Southeast Division with them, they should be able to run up enough wins to have a good shot at a playoff seed.
Key Additions: Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Andres Nocioni, Frank Williams, Eric Piatkowski
Key Subtractions: Jamal Crawford, Jerome Willams, Scottie Pippen (retirement)
Skinny: Why is GM John Paxson smiling after a disastrous rookie season heading the Chicago Terri-bulls? One, Eddy Curry is off his Big Mac and Kool-Aid diet and reported to camp in shape for the first time in his career. Two, both Curry and Tyson Chandler – who were drafted straight out of high school together in 2001 – are in contract years, meaning that for the first time in four seasons, their future isn't guaranteed in the millions. Third, he dumped several perceived problems this summer and swapped them for two rookies, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng, who have the requisite toughness and winning pedigree he's been looking for on his team. Finally, he made himself a nice free-agent coup, getting the best and toughest international player not in the NBA, Nocioni, to agree to leave the Euroleague for the Bulls. What he has now is perhaps the most talented, albeit youngest, squad the Bulls have had since MJ hung up his sneakers. Of course, we've said that before with little to no results (we picked the Bulls to finish sixth in the East last year). Why will this year be different? A tougher coach, fewer egos, more winners and plenty of incentive to play the right way. Forty wins this year and Paxson can finally sleep easy knowing that his team still has plenty of room to grow. Anything less and either Curry or Chandler will be wearing a new uniform next season – if not sooner.
SLIPPING?
Key Additions: Nenad Krstic, Eric Williams, Ron Mercer, Jacque Vaughn
Key Subtractions: Kenyon Martin, Kerry Kittles, Rodney Rogers
Skinny: Don't blame GM Rod Thorn for the literal dismantling of a team that played in the Finals two of the past three seasons. New owner Bruce Ratner, focused only on the bottom line, shipped Martin to Denver when his asking price became too high and then shipped Kittles to the Clippers to get even further under the cap. Their replacements, Williams and Mercer, don't really inspire confidence. Factor in that Jason Kidd will miss training camp and the start of the regular season rehabbing from offseason knee surgery; Richard Jefferson, the one guy Ratner was willing to pay, looked awful in the Olympics; and Alonzo Mourning's comeback has serious questions, and the Nets could be in for one of the biggest free falls of the season. If Kidd demands a trade (it's probably only a matter of time) … it will only get uglier. As much as we love Jefferson, he isn't MJ and can't challenge the NBA to a 1-on-5 contest.
Key Additions: Mike James, Maurice Williams, Zaza Pachulia
Key Subtractions: Brian Skinner, Damon Jones
Skinny: The Bucks were the East's Cinderella team last season, so why are they stuck all the way down here without any significant changes to their roster? Two things stand out. One, the future of T.J. Ford is very much in doubt. Ford was the motor in the Bucks' upbeat offense last season. When he went down with a serious back injury, the Bucks stumbled. GM Larry Harris's two major free agent additions, James and Williams, are the best indication yet that the Bucks aren't confident that Ford will return this season. James and Williams are decent replacements, but neither player gives the Bucks what Ford did. Second, the Bucks lost some toughness up front when they let Skinner go. They'll try to replace that with second-year international big man Pachulia, who showed a lot of promise this summer but doesn't have the experience or grittiness that Skinner had. The bottom line is that the Bucks are stuck in the toughest division, by far, in the East. Detroit and Indiana are elite teams. Cleveland and Chicago continue to improve. The playoffs are still a good possibility in Milwaukee, but it's going to be a difficult feat to recreate.
Key Additions: Corliss Williamson, Andre Iguodala, Brian Skinner, Kevin Ollie
Key Subtractions: Eric Snow, Derrick Coleman, Greg Buckner
Skinny: The Sixers have a new head coach, Jim O'Brien, a new offensive and defensive philosophy and a happy Allen Iverson. So what's wrong? O'Brien is really going to be relying heavily on four young players to produce this year. Whenever we hear that, the red flags start popping up. GM Billy King traded away Snow after O'Brien said he'd prefer to play Iverson at the point and young players like Willie Green, John Salmons and the rookie Iguodala at the two. All three are talented, all three have looked good in the summer league, but they're also very unproven. Snow was the rock that counterbalanced Iverson's huge mood swings. As much as we like these guys, I'm not sure they're ready for that just yet. The one young player we do have more confidence in is big man Samuel Dalembert. Toward the end of last season, he looked like he was ready to turn himself into a big-time center. If he does, the Sixers front line will be very strong, especially with the addition of Williamson and Skinner. If he struggles, as young players sometimes do after coming off breakout years, the Sixers could be in trouble. The Sixers are the toughest team in the league to get a handle on. They've got the coaching and the talent to be very good. But there are huge question marks. And if Iverson's body breaks down after taking a pretty good pounding in the Olympics (there's a definite trend here pointing in that direction), things will go downhill very fast.
Key Additions: Gary Payton, Tom Gugliotta, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Delonte West
Key Subtractions: Chucky Atkins, Chris Mihm, Jumaine Jones
Skinny: Danny Ainge has burned Jim O'Brien's Celtics to the ground and within a span of less than 18 months, turned the Celtics into an unusual mix of veterans (Paul Pierce, Mark Blount and Payton) combined with a plethora of young players (Jiri Welsch, Marcus Banks, Kendrick Perkins, Jefferson, Allen and West). How a team like that will mesh under new head coach Doc Rivers is really anyone's guess. They probably don't belong in either the "On the Rise" or "Slipping" category. If we had a "Who Knows", they'd be at the top of the list. The potential problems seem to outweigh the upside . . this year at least. . . which is why the Celtics ended up here. Five players on the roster have one or less years of experience in the league. Two of the big guys they'll rely on (Perkins and Jefferson) never played a game of college basketball. Pierce, Welsch, Blount and Raef LaFrentz (if he can ever stay healthy) are all capable of putting together a nice run. But several of the veterans on the roster, read Payton and Ricky Davis, have a history of causing problems if things don't go their way. The Celtics are the wild card in the East. If things come together for Doc, they could be a surprise contender. If they go poorly, it could get very, very ugly.
LOTTERY BOUND
Key Additions: Rafer Alston, Rafael Araujo, Loren Woods
Key Subtractions: None
Skinny: Want to know why Vince Carter wants out of Toronto and a slew of higher profile GMs turned down the job in Toronto before ownership finally settled on Rob Babcock? The Raptors are capped out and have few assets to make the enormous changes this team really needs to make. Babcock did the best he could this summer: drafting a center that could step in and play immediately and adding a point guard coming off a successful playoff run. But everything depends on Carter. At this point, that's scary. Nowithstanding his history of injuries when the going gets tough, is his heart really in it this year? (Has it really ever been?) The future in Toronto is power forward Chris Bosh, who reportedly has bulked up this summer in an effort to help the Raptors out in the middle. If everything goes right in Toronto – Carter stays healthy, Bosh can play center, Alston plays well at the point, Marshall has a repeat of last season – the Raptors have the talent and depth to be a playoff team. But since when has everything went right in Toronto?
Key Additions: Antoine Walker, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, Peja Drobnjak
Key Subtractions: Jason Terry, Stephen Jackson, Bob Sura, Alan Henderson
Skinny: The Hawks blew up their roster last February when they traded two staples, Theo Ratliff and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, for what ended up to be a load of expiring contracts. They finished the process this summer: swapping Terry for Walker, who just happens to have an expiring contract of his own, and refusing to spend their money in free agency. If fiscal responsibility won you basketball games, the Hawks would be atop the East right now. As it stands, they should be decent. Walker and Harrington will give them a nice one-two scoring punch on the front line. Walker is highly motivated. He's coming off the worst season of his career into a contract year. Harrington is finally getting his first chance to be a full-time starter and has much to prove. But center and the backcourt are huge question marks. Tony Delk and Kenny Anderson are manning the point, a position neither has played well in years. Rookie Josh Childress has a promising future, but he'll be drinking from a fire hydrant in Year One. Drobnjak was the starting center for the Clippers last season. We all know how that went. The Hawks are heading in the right direction, but it's going to be a slow slog.
Key Additions: Emeka Okafor, Melvin Ely, Gerald Wallace, Jason Kapono
Key Subtractions: None
Skinny: GM and head coach Bernie Bickerstaff used to coach the Harlem Globetrotters. But after seeing the roster he put together for the Bobcats' inaugural season, you wonder if it wasn't the Washington Generals that he's trying to invoke. Okafor was a great pickup in the draft – a solid, respectable big man to build the team around. The expansion draft yielded several young, promising but highly unproven players, and the trade for Ely will help shore up the front line. But without a solid starting point guard (Jason Hart and Brevin Knight will share the responsibility) and only one solid perimeter shooter (Kapono), where will the points come from? Bickerstaff has put together a young athletic team that will play hard every night, turn in some highlight reel plays and be capable of playing sound defense. However, if they win more than 10 games this season, it will be a miracle.
