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Hi everybody. Long time reader & 1st time poster. I posted this on the RealGM site and also wanted to see what you thought about it here.
Please bear with me on this very long post....I hope you will find it a good analysis. Thx.
Since we lost to the Spurs I've been following many boards and sites. I've thought about this alot and some of you have written about and suggested similar trades but things have changed since the KT trade that might make this work better for both teams....namely the TPE.
I believe this would be a "win-win" for both teams.... immediately meeting team needs for both as well as addressing short and long-term cap/tax issues. So here we go......
Part 1 (RealGM Trade Checker #4131688)
Suns outgoing:
* Shawn Marion ($16.4mil for 2007-08 & $33.4 for 2 years)
* BTW..I LOVE the Matrix but to meet current needs and to get good value before he leaves.....well "give to get" I guess....
Nuggets outgoing:
1) Marcus Camby ( $10.0 for 2007-08 including reported "earned incentives" and $29.0 for 3 years)
2) Reggie Evans ($4.3 for 2007-08 and $19 for 4 years.
Part 2
Suns outgoing:
The KT "TPE" ($8.19mil total) "send" $4.95mil of it.
Nuggets outgoing:
Eduardo Najera ($4.95mil for 2007-08 a 1yr EXPIRING contract.
Very briefly....the 2 deals together (but done separately) provide immediate cap/tax relief for Denver and for Phoenix a "reasonable overage"...(increase from today) for Suns to pay in their pursuit of the needed missing pieces to get by SA.....namely 3 running, rebounding defensive oriented front court players. Denver gets more "All-Star" firepower and drawing power for fans to go w/AI & Mello in the complementary premiere versatile defender who loves to play their same running game.....we call him "The Matrix"!
Reasons WHY? for the Suns:
1) The additional veteran leadership of Camby to go along with his defense & rebounding.
2) Camby has no ego at all and is all about team and winning a championship - he would fit beautifully.
3) Camby is considered a good passer and can hit the foul line "J" regularly -another fit for our style.
4) All 3 of these players can run as well with the Suns as most any other 4's or 5's in the league....they have played for Nuggets after all and done well.
5) All 3 can rebound well and together can offset the loss of Marion's & KT's board #'s.
6) Evans might not get a lot of PT from Coach for his salary $...due to low FT% & TO's....but his FG% is high and "MD" can pick his spots when we are getting pounded on the boards to use the best rebounder/minute in NBA.
7) Najera would be a HUGE fan favorite in Phoenix for his Mexican heritage AND his scrappy defense & rebounding and Coach would love his versatility to play all 3 frontcourt spots. Shoots hi FG% & fair FT% also.
8 ) Najera would likely re-sign with us if we are willing....for a modest contract....$11mil for 3 years?? He would be a very good value at that price.
9) The Suns have already added 3 good perimeter defenders in Hill, Tucker & Strawberry to help funnel penetrators into Camby in the middle like Spurs do with Duncan. Marion's significant loss would hurt... but improved team defense overall could help offset it.
10) Trading Marion now is admittedly risking some loss of chemistry for a team so close to the title...but these 3 additions are all solid team guys (according to Nuggets articles) who would have clear roles on the Suns: play defense, rebound & pass to our multitude of scorers! Add the other 3 additions and I think we overcome the loss of Marion's chemistry. Not only do we still have Nash, the straw that stirs the drink...but we also have Grant Hill to offset Shawn's vital role here.
11) At least if we trade Shawn now he couldn't opt out and leave us "empty" in summer 2008.
13) All 3 of these additions have reasonable contracts and market value that would allow us flexibility for making future trades.
14) Garnett- as crazy as it seems...if he does opt out in summer 2008 Suns could still find a way to bring him here. We would still have many tradeable assets to maneuver a sign & trade w/Twolves. He wants to be here....right?
15) Suns trainers would at least minimize Camby's injury time....he plays HARD and is at risk...but wouldn't you love to take your chances with him in the lineup Suns fans? A real center....wow!
16) Suns MIGHT be able to find a better player for the Traded Player Exception...but this "package" of 2 individual deals adds up to something Denver would have to very seriously consider. I think it would actually encourage the Nuggets to do the deal...for the Luxury tax savings ...AS WELL AS ....the Matrix! If this could allow us to get Camby....it would be worth it.
Reasons WHY? for the Nuggets:
1)Truly gives the Nuggets their own version of "The Big 3" with another multiple year All-Star & fan favorite.
2) Saves on Cap/Luxury Tax THIS year- at least $2.8mil ($5.6 including LT)
3)Marion is arguably one of top 15 players in NBA, adding him might even increase fan interest & attendance & championship hopes.
4) Nuggets would run even more with Marion creating mismatches at the PF like he does in PHX....Nene" would have similar effect as a center who can run past most others.
5) Marion's muti-positional defensive abilities would offset loss of the 3 "bigs" to PHX.
6) Marion fits into a similar niche as in Phoenix where his talents can be maximized and adds his own 18ppg on effort & cleanup.
7)Marion can add some much needed 3pt. shooting to nuggets who shot 33.6% as a team in 2006-07. His career mark of 34.2% isn't great but it is an added bonus to everything else he brings.
8 ) Hopefully, "Special K" Martin will play well enough to offset the production of the outgoing "bigs"....90% of his prime would be great...80% not bad.
9) Matrix will have at least 4 to 6 more "prime years" he could bring to Denver.
10 )Marion finds a happy new home and where better would he fit looking at league rosters?? He'd probably be willing to re-sign with Denver...unlike say...Celtics or Twolves. Denver after all is at least one of the top 10 teams in the NBA.
11) In the summer of 2009 Matrix and AI's contracts would both be up....Nuggets might succeed at bringing both players back at more affordable salaries. In any case Nuggets would have another great asset and many options as they build around Carmello Anthony.
Suns new lineup: (assuming PJ Brown not added)
Nash Bell Hill Stoudemire Camby
Banks Barbosa Tucker Najera Diaw
Strawberry Piatkowski Evans Marks
Nuggets new lineup
Atkins Iverson Anthony Marion Nene'
Carter JR Smith Diawara K. Martin Sampson
Wafer Kleiza
FINALLY.... IF pulled off...below is the cumulative follow-through results of trading both KT & the Matrix:
Suns outgoing both trades:
KT - 35 yrs old in OCT - ($8 mil)
2008 pick
2010 pick
Marion - 29 - ($16.4)
Suns incoming:
Camby - 33 in OCT. - ($10.0 mil 2007-08 )
Najera - 31- ( $4.95 mil 2007-08 )
Evans - 27- ($4.3 mil 2007-08 )
$24.4 off the 2007-08 books and $19.25 new money on the books
Net saving of $5.15 in salaries + $5.15 in Luxury Taxes = $10.30 saved
I honestly don't know how close to the Luxury Tax cutoff we would be after this deal....maybe someone more on top of the current salaries could calculate this for all of us. ( I think about $4 mil over + $4mil in Luxury Taxes for 2007-08 the Najera's contract expires - I'd hope we could keep him but it gives us some flexibility .)
Other than Camby's past injury tendencies & "the same conference" issue...why NOT do this deal?
This isn't "the perfect trade"...I know....and I'm sure I've made a few errors here in assesments & perhaps $ #'s but I think I'm fairly accurate.....hopefully so.....and I really like this trade as I think it is perhaps one of those "rare" win-win trades that seem to make a lot of sense, benefits both teams and the rotations look good for Phoenix and I think for Denver too. Denver gets the Matrix....that is awesome for them.....and I love Camby for what we need. I have really enjoyed watching Najera's scrappy play and Evans is a monster on the boards. I'm a season ticket holder and these guys have done well against us.
Ah....in any case I have enjoyed this fantasy exercise.....maybe the Radio guys will talk it up...haha! If anyone knows Steve Kerr tell him he should read this! I hope & pray Kerr is working on this deal...or perhaps something as effective in results........but I haven't heard anything leak out. I have no direct knowledge .....but IF he hasn't run this by Sarver, Griff & Coach....I think someone who knows how to get an email to him should forward this post to him.....just for "further cosideration"! Not because I wrote it...but because it might be a good way to go. I do think he will be a very good GM...give him a chance. This would be a bold move and somewhat risky.....but aren't most deals risky?
There you are....have at it! I welcome your ideas to make this trade even better if you can....more "do-able somehow for one or both teams. I'd love to see anyone come up with a better way to meet our needs for bigs...and defense......we need them to get past Spurs no doubt.
Please bear with me on this very long post....I hope you will find it a good analysis. Thx.
Since we lost to the Spurs I've been following many boards and sites. I've thought about this alot and some of you have written about and suggested similar trades but things have changed since the KT trade that might make this work better for both teams....namely the TPE.
I believe this would be a "win-win" for both teams.... immediately meeting team needs for both as well as addressing short and long-term cap/tax issues. So here we go......
Part 1 (RealGM Trade Checker #4131688)
Suns outgoing:
* Shawn Marion ($16.4mil for 2007-08 & $33.4 for 2 years)
* BTW..I LOVE the Matrix but to meet current needs and to get good value before he leaves.....well "give to get" I guess....
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Nuggets outgoing:
1) Marcus Camby ( $10.0 for 2007-08 including reported "earned incentives" and $29.0 for 3 years)
2) Reggie Evans ($4.3 for 2007-08 and $19 for 4 years.
Part 2
Suns outgoing:
The KT "TPE" ($8.19mil total) "send" $4.95mil of it.
Nuggets outgoing:
Eduardo Najera ($4.95mil for 2007-08 a 1yr EXPIRING contract.
Very briefly....the 2 deals together (but done separately) provide immediate cap/tax relief for Denver and for Phoenix a "reasonable overage"...(increase from today) for Suns to pay in their pursuit of the needed missing pieces to get by SA.....namely 3 running, rebounding defensive oriented front court players. Denver gets more "All-Star" firepower and drawing power for fans to go w/AI & Mello in the complementary premiere versatile defender who loves to play their same running game.....we call him "The Matrix"!
Reasons WHY? for the Suns:
1) The additional veteran leadership of Camby to go along with his defense & rebounding.
2) Camby has no ego at all and is all about team and winning a championship - he would fit beautifully.
3) Camby is considered a good passer and can hit the foul line "J" regularly -another fit for our style.
4) All 3 of these players can run as well with the Suns as most any other 4's or 5's in the league....they have played for Nuggets after all and done well.
5) All 3 can rebound well and together can offset the loss of Marion's & KT's board #'s.
6) Evans might not get a lot of PT from Coach for his salary $...due to low FT% & TO's....but his FG% is high and "MD" can pick his spots when we are getting pounded on the boards to use the best rebounder/minute in NBA.
7) Najera would be a HUGE fan favorite in Phoenix for his Mexican heritage AND his scrappy defense & rebounding and Coach would love his versatility to play all 3 frontcourt spots. Shoots hi FG% & fair FT% also.
8 ) Najera would likely re-sign with us if we are willing....for a modest contract....$11mil for 3 years?? He would be a very good value at that price.
9) The Suns have already added 3 good perimeter defenders in Hill, Tucker & Strawberry to help funnel penetrators into Camby in the middle like Spurs do with Duncan. Marion's significant loss would hurt... but improved team defense overall could help offset it.
10) Trading Marion now is admittedly risking some loss of chemistry for a team so close to the title...but these 3 additions are all solid team guys (according to Nuggets articles) who would have clear roles on the Suns: play defense, rebound & pass to our multitude of scorers! Add the other 3 additions and I think we overcome the loss of Marion's chemistry. Not only do we still have Nash, the straw that stirs the drink...but we also have Grant Hill to offset Shawn's vital role here.
11) At least if we trade Shawn now he couldn't opt out and leave us "empty" in summer 2008.
13) All 3 of these additions have reasonable contracts and market value that would allow us flexibility for making future trades.
14) Garnett- as crazy as it seems...if he does opt out in summer 2008 Suns could still find a way to bring him here. We would still have many tradeable assets to maneuver a sign & trade w/Twolves. He wants to be here....right?
15) Suns trainers would at least minimize Camby's injury time....he plays HARD and is at risk...but wouldn't you love to take your chances with him in the lineup Suns fans? A real center....wow!
16) Suns MIGHT be able to find a better player for the Traded Player Exception...but this "package" of 2 individual deals adds up to something Denver would have to very seriously consider. I think it would actually encourage the Nuggets to do the deal...for the Luxury tax savings ...AS WELL AS ....the Matrix! If this could allow us to get Camby....it would be worth it.
Reasons WHY? for the Nuggets:
1)Truly gives the Nuggets their own version of "The Big 3" with another multiple year All-Star & fan favorite.
2) Saves on Cap/Luxury Tax THIS year- at least $2.8mil ($5.6 including LT)
3)Marion is arguably one of top 15 players in NBA, adding him might even increase fan interest & attendance & championship hopes.
4) Nuggets would run even more with Marion creating mismatches at the PF like he does in PHX....Nene" would have similar effect as a center who can run past most others.
5) Marion's muti-positional defensive abilities would offset loss of the 3 "bigs" to PHX.
6) Marion fits into a similar niche as in Phoenix where his talents can be maximized and adds his own 18ppg on effort & cleanup.
7)Marion can add some much needed 3pt. shooting to nuggets who shot 33.6% as a team in 2006-07. His career mark of 34.2% isn't great but it is an added bonus to everything else he brings.
8 ) Hopefully, "Special K" Martin will play well enough to offset the production of the outgoing "bigs"....90% of his prime would be great...80% not bad.
9) Matrix will have at least 4 to 6 more "prime years" he could bring to Denver.
10 )Marion finds a happy new home and where better would he fit looking at league rosters?? He'd probably be willing to re-sign with Denver...unlike say...Celtics or Twolves. Denver after all is at least one of the top 10 teams in the NBA.
11) In the summer of 2009 Matrix and AI's contracts would both be up....Nuggets might succeed at bringing both players back at more affordable salaries. In any case Nuggets would have another great asset and many options as they build around Carmello Anthony.
Suns new lineup: (assuming PJ Brown not added)
Nash Bell Hill Stoudemire Camby
Banks Barbosa Tucker Najera Diaw
Strawberry Piatkowski Evans Marks
Nuggets new lineup
Atkins Iverson Anthony Marion Nene'
Carter JR Smith Diawara K. Martin Sampson
Wafer Kleiza
FINALLY.... IF pulled off...below is the cumulative follow-through results of trading both KT & the Matrix:
Suns outgoing both trades:
KT - 35 yrs old in OCT - ($8 mil)
2008 pick
2010 pick
Marion - 29 - ($16.4)
Suns incoming:
Camby - 33 in OCT. - ($10.0 mil 2007-08 )
Najera - 31- ( $4.95 mil 2007-08 )
Evans - 27- ($4.3 mil 2007-08 )
$24.4 off the 2007-08 books and $19.25 new money on the books
Net saving of $5.15 in salaries + $5.15 in Luxury Taxes = $10.30 saved
I honestly don't know how close to the Luxury Tax cutoff we would be after this deal....maybe someone more on top of the current salaries could calculate this for all of us. ( I think about $4 mil over + $4mil in Luxury Taxes for 2007-08 the Najera's contract expires - I'd hope we could keep him but it gives us some flexibility .)
Other than Camby's past injury tendencies & "the same conference" issue...why NOT do this deal?
This isn't "the perfect trade"...I know....and I'm sure I've made a few errors here in assesments & perhaps $ #'s but I think I'm fairly accurate.....hopefully so.....and I really like this trade as I think it is perhaps one of those "rare" win-win trades that seem to make a lot of sense, benefits both teams and the rotations look good for Phoenix and I think for Denver too. Denver gets the Matrix....that is awesome for them.....and I love Camby for what we need. I have really enjoyed watching Najera's scrappy play and Evans is a monster on the boards. I'm a season ticket holder and these guys have done well against us.
Ah....in any case I have enjoyed this fantasy exercise.....maybe the Radio guys will talk it up...haha! If anyone knows Steve Kerr tell him he should read this! I hope & pray Kerr is working on this deal...or perhaps something as effective in results........but I haven't heard anything leak out. I have no direct knowledge .....but IF he hasn't run this by Sarver, Griff & Coach....I think someone who knows how to get an email to him should forward this post to him.....just for "further cosideration"! Not because I wrote it...but because it might be a good way to go. I do think he will be a very good GM...give him a chance. This would be a bold move and somewhat risky.....but aren't most deals risky?
There you are....have at it! I welcome your ideas to make this trade even better if you can....more "do-able somehow for one or both teams. I'd love to see anyone come up with a better way to meet our needs for bigs...and defense......we need them to get past Spurs no doubt.
