2 Part trade idea w/ Nuggets...please forward to Steve Kerr!

[Statmaster]

Hi everybody. Long time reader & 1st time poster. I posted this on the RealGM site and also wanted to see what you thought about it here.
Please bear with me on this very long post....I hope you will find it a good analysis. Thx.

Since we lost to the Spurs I've been following many boards and sites. I've thought about this alot and some of you have written about and suggested similar trades but things have changed since the KT trade that might make this work better for both teams....namely the TPE.

I believe this would be a "win-win" for both teams.... immediately meeting team needs for both as well as addressing short and long-term cap/tax issues. So here we go......

Part 1 (RealGM Trade Checker #4131688)

Suns outgoing:
* Shawn Marion ($16.4mil for 2007-08 & $33.4 for 2 years)

* BTW..I LOVE the Matrix but to meet current needs and to get good value before he leaves.....well "give to get" I guess....

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Nuggets outgoing:
1) Marcus Camby ( $10.0 for 2007-08 including reported "earned incentives" and $29.0 for 3 years)
2) Reggie Evans ($4.3 for 2007-08 and $19 for 4 years.

Part 2
Suns outgoing:
The KT "TPE" ($8.19mil total) "send" $4.95mil of it.

Nuggets outgoing:
Eduardo Najera ($4.95mil for 2007-08 a 1yr EXPIRING contract.

Very briefly....the 2 deals together (but done separately) provide immediate cap/tax relief for Denver and for Phoenix a "reasonable overage"...(increase from today) for Suns to pay in their pursuit of the needed missing pieces to get by SA.....namely 3 running, rebounding defensive oriented front court players. Denver gets more "All-Star" firepower and drawing power for fans to go w/AI & Mello in the complementary premiere versatile defender who loves to play their same running game.....we call him "The Matrix"!

Reasons WHY? for the Suns:
1) The additional veteran leadership of Camby to go along with his defense & rebounding.
2) Camby has no ego at all and is all about team and winning a championship - he would fit beautifully.
3) Camby is considered a good passer and can hit the foul line "J" regularly -another fit for our style.
4) All 3 of these players can run as well with the Suns as most any other 4's or 5's in the league....they have played for Nuggets after all and done well.
5) All 3 can rebound well and together can offset the loss of Marion's & KT's board #'s.
6) Evans might not get a lot of PT from Coach for his salary $...due to low FT% & TO's....but his FG% is high and "MD" can pick his spots when we are getting pounded on the boards to use the best rebounder/minute in NBA.
7) Najera would be a HUGE fan favorite in Phoenix for his Mexican heritage AND his scrappy defense & rebounding and Coach would love his versatility to play all 3 frontcourt spots. Shoots hi FG% & fair FT% also.
8 ) Najera would likely re-sign with us if we are willing....for a modest contract....$11mil for 3 years?? He would be a very good value at that price.
9) The Suns have already added 3 good perimeter defenders in Hill, Tucker & Strawberry to help funnel penetrators into Camby in the middle like Spurs do with Duncan. Marion's significant loss would hurt... but improved team defense overall could help offset it.
10) Trading Marion now is admittedly risking some loss of chemistry for a team so close to the title...but these 3 additions are all solid team guys (according to Nuggets articles) who would have clear roles on the Suns: play defense, rebound & pass to our multitude of scorers! Add the other 3 additions and I think we overcome the loss of Marion's chemistry. Not only do we still have Nash, the straw that stirs the drink...but we also have Grant Hill to offset Shawn's vital role here.
11) At least if we trade Shawn now he couldn't opt out and leave us "empty" in summer 2008.
13) All 3 of these additions have reasonable contracts and market value that would allow us flexibility for making future trades.
14) Garnett- as crazy as it seems...if he does opt out in summer 2008 Suns could still find a way to bring him here. We would still have many tradeable assets to maneuver a sign & trade w/Twolves. He wants to be here....right?
15) Suns trainers would at least minimize Camby's injury time....he plays HARD and is at risk...but wouldn't you love to take your chances with him in the lineup Suns fans? A real center....wow!
16) Suns MIGHT be able to find a better player for the Traded Player Exception...but this "package" of 2 individual deals adds up to something Denver would have to very seriously consider. I think it would actually encourage the Nuggets to do the deal...for the Luxury tax savings ...AS WELL AS ....the Matrix! If this could allow us to get Camby....it would be worth it.


Reasons WHY? for the Nuggets:
1)Truly gives the Nuggets their own version of "The Big 3" with another multiple year All-Star & fan favorite.
2) Saves on Cap/Luxury Tax THIS year- at least $2.8mil ($5.6 including LT)
3)Marion is arguably one of top 15 players in NBA, adding him might even increase fan interest & attendance & championship hopes.
4) Nuggets would run even more with Marion creating mismatches at the PF like he does in PHX....Nene" would have similar effect as a center who can run past most others.
5) Marion's muti-positional defensive abilities would offset loss of the 3 "bigs" to PHX.
6) Marion fits into a similar niche as in Phoenix where his talents can be maximized and adds his own 18ppg on effort & cleanup.
7)Marion can add some much needed 3pt. shooting to nuggets who shot 33.6% as a team in 2006-07. His career mark of 34.2% isn't great but it is an added bonus to everything else he brings.
8 ) Hopefully, "Special K" Martin will play well enough to offset the production of the outgoing "bigs"....90% of his prime would be great...80% not bad.
9) Matrix will have at least 4 to 6 more "prime years" he could bring to Denver.
10 )Marion finds a happy new home and where better would he fit looking at league rosters?? He'd probably be willing to re-sign with Denver...unlike say...Celtics or Twolves. Denver after all is at least one of the top 10 teams in the NBA.
11) In the summer of 2009 Matrix and AI's contracts would both be up....Nuggets might succeed at bringing both players back at more affordable salaries. In any case Nuggets would have another great asset and many options as they build around Carmello Anthony.

Suns new lineup: (assuming PJ Brown not added)

Nash Bell Hill Stoudemire Camby
Banks Barbosa Tucker Najera Diaw
Strawberry Piatkowski Evans Marks


Nuggets new lineup

Atkins Iverson Anthony Marion Nene'
Carter JR Smith Diawara K. Martin Sampson
Wafer Kleiza

FINALLY.... IF pulled off...below is the cumulative follow-through results of trading both KT & the Matrix:

Suns outgoing both trades:
KT - 35 yrs old in OCT - ($8 mil)
2008 pick
2010 pick
Marion - 29 - ($16.4)

Suns incoming:
Camby - 33 in OCT. - ($10.0 mil 2007-08 )
Najera - 31- ( $4.95 mil 2007-08 )
Evans - 27- ($4.3 mil 2007-08 )

$24.4 off the 2007-08 books and $19.25 new money on the books
Net saving of $5.15 in salaries + $5.15 in Luxury Taxes = $10.30 saved

I honestly don't know how close to the Luxury Tax cutoff we would be after this deal....maybe someone more on top of the current salaries could calculate this for all of us. ( I think about $4 mil over + $4mil in Luxury Taxes for 2007-08 the Najera's contract expires - I'd hope we could keep him but it gives us some flexibility .)

Other than Camby's past injury tendencies & "the same conference" issue...why NOT do this deal?

This isn't "the perfect trade"...I know....and I'm sure I've made a few errors here in assesments & perhaps $ #'s but I think I'm fairly accurate.....hopefully so.....and I really like this trade as I think it is perhaps one of those "rare" win-win trades that seem to make a lot of sense, benefits both teams and the rotations look good for Phoenix and I think for Denver too. Denver gets the Matrix....that is awesome for them.....and I love Camby for what we need. I have really enjoyed watching Najera's scrappy play and Evans is a monster on the boards. I'm a season ticket holder and these guys have done well against us.

Ah....in any case I have enjoyed this fantasy exercise.....maybe the Radio guys will talk it up...haha! If anyone knows Steve Kerr tell him he should read this! I hope & pray Kerr is working on this deal...or perhaps something as effective in results........but I haven't heard anything leak out. I have no direct knowledge .....but IF he hasn't run this by Sarver, Griff & Coach....I think someone who knows how to get an email to him should forward this post to him.....just for "further cosideration"! Not because I wrote it...but because it might be a good way to go. I do think he will be a very good GM...give him a chance. This would be a bold move and somewhat risky.....but aren't most deals risky?

There you are....have at it! I welcome your ideas to make this trade even better if you can....more "do-able somehow for one or both teams. I'd love to see anyone come up with a better way to meet our needs for bigs...and defense......we need them to get past Spurs no doubt.

 

[azirish]

Welcome aboard

Without going through the details of your proposal, there are several core principles of trades from the Suns standpoint to consider:

1. They cannot trade any more draft picks. The only one they can legally move is the Atlanta pick, but are unlikely to do it for less than a proven rotation player. (You cannot trade out of two consecutive drafts in future years).

2. The Suns are not likely to add more than a few million in salaries due to the luxury tax.

3. You cannot combine the trade exemption with a player for matching purposes.

4. The Suns need their rotation inside guys to run very well and be able to shoot out to at least 15 feet.

5. Marion is very hard tor trade for value. His big value to the Suns is his ability to play small ball power forward. Since nobody else plays this way (except the Warriors and the Suns are not trading him within the division), his weak outside shooting is a problem. Also Marion has a player option this summer, so no one is going to take without assurance he'd sign and extention.

I'm probably missing something, but this is the general gist.

 

[Statmaster]

Hi azirish & Thanks for the welcome. I must say I enjoy your posts and agree with you often. You have "good stuff" on your posts....like good movement on your fastball.

I agree a trade for Shawn is very tough. It would be nice to hear from Shawn & the Suns about intentions.....what might happen next summer when he has the option to opt out. Part of my thinking to trafe him now is similar to what is apparently going down with Garnett to Boston....before Twolves are left with just an empty locker.

So, I think for the Suns, as in my business, Real Estate..."Time is of the Essence"(Think Nash's age....and Marion's questionable future with us...opt out??) Granted there is the coming year to work with. I just really hope their attitude is to keep listening and maybe even...imagine this.....be a bit proactive in discussing his value with other teams.

I see all your points but the one I would like you to comment on if you would is #2. There is so much talk ...from the Suns.....about not wanting to pay the Luxury Tax...as if this sound financial principal rules overall. I frankly think they have basically "brainwashed us" to keep our expectations down. Its not right, its not good and it isn't necessary for Sarver & the owners to hold such a line....to draw a line in the sand.

MY thought is they aren't trying very hard to find a quality big....one that could be acquired with the TPE.....not that a lot of teams are lining up to give them away in salary dumps....but there are a lot of good players out there making under Kurt's salary....players that would be a better fit for us. Maybe David Griffin's voice should be heard more as I believe in him and his knowledge.

Bottom line...how can they be so focused on not paying LT when the team is making really nice profits every year??? Do they think we are naive and that fans think the team is actually "losing money" , that paying luxury taxes is the equivelant of financial LOSSES instead of profits? It isn't a loss....it is a PREMIUM PAID....for going over an arbitrary league limit.

Is that how they have basically "silenced the fans"......by giving the perception that they will be actually losing $$?????

I thought about a way to look at this that points out that any Luxury Tax is just a premium and how much it affects average player salaries:

1) At the leaugue salary limit of $67.9 for 14 players the average salary/player is $4.85 million.

2) If a team exceeds the cap into Luxury Tax area by adding a 14th player at about $6mil/year....salaries total about $74 mil and add the Luxury tax of $6mil and total salary payout for the year is about $80mil total or $5.714 mil per player (granted it is historically high for Suns and in general for the league).

3) The difference between the 2 average costs per player is 17.8% more per player when paying the Luxury Tax.....it is a 17.8% PREMIUM paid.

4) It makes a difference to the bottom line but say if a team like Suns earned $32mil in profits for 2005-06. It would merely REDUCE PROFITS....from $32mil to $20mil.

Like Latrell Sprewell said...."I have to feed my family..." I just think Sarver & the owners can simply "fast" a little...while the championship team is being built and paid for and no-one will go hungry on the $20 million profits.

I see many posters here on this site that despite their love of the Suns and great knowledge of what is going on with everything...Suns & the rest of the NBA....seem to have "bought in" to what the Suns are selling...."Poor us....this is a business...luxury tax is evil and will cause the emminent collaps of this fine organization...."

I know it is only "our team" in as much as we follow them and buy our season tickets and help them earn the profits they do.....it is their authority to spend the $ as they see.....re-investmet or dividends. If we had one one or more titles...perhaps the thirst would be quenched and more understanding would be in order. But at this point? Come on! Is this the 40th year of the franchise now?

Why do we accept this excuse for not improving the team? It is lame. Perhaps Sarver might consider selling this team back to a group led by Jerry Colangelo. He would get it done at this point.

Fans please don't resign yourself to a budgeted effort...please continue to educate one another and put whatever pressure you can on Steve Kerr & ownership to spend what it takes....namely for ithe interior help needed.

BTW...does anyone have email addresses of Suns staff? I write my congressman or have faxes sent to him on issues....but how can we know the Suns have an idea of how this looks (failure to spend for what is truly needed) for them????(BAD) Is there a more direct way to contact them...i.e.....email??

 

[YouJustGotSUNSD]

Thats all well and good, but it seems like youre trying to convince yourself using your own assumed conclusion.

This is very little chance we go back over the luxury tax line by much after gutting our way to just 3 million-ish over

 

[Statmaster]

well...if you say so......why do you find yourself agreeing with ownership"s position on this? Your lack of agreement with me tells me you are resigned and have "bought in" as I wrote above.

If you disagree with me it would be nice if you have some good reasoning for doing so. Just because we have cut back to where we are....has it occurred to you that doesn't mean we can't go up again?

And if you think not.....please give a rational explanation. You know the Suns are making a big profit in recent years. You think it is wise for them to keep as much of it as possible for dividends? If so...you don't care? Or do you understand what is at stake?

I don't need to convince myself about this.....I'm trying to awaken people to the situation as best as I can. People can do more than just complain on these posts. I know I'm "just a poster" here as we all are...but many of us are season ticket holders so that should count for something.

Have you ever approached Mr. Sarver and told him personally that he is going to need to spend about $20 million more? I have. At the Suns Town Hall meeting Feb. 2006. His look was priceless to say the least.

By the way ....do you even know just what "my own assumed conclusion" is ???? If so....please share.

In fairness to you...I can tell you aren't happy with all of the gutting. I know you post a lot here.....but if you have had a lot to say about this issue....please don't think everyone here has read all of your posts and should just know what you think. If you elaborate a bit more it is very helpful to all.

 

[azirish]

I think the problem with the LT is the way it forces the team look at a player's contribution. Is Kurt Thomas worth $16 million?

Now, if the team found a guy who they felt was worth $5 million and could get him for $2.5 million, then in theory they should make the deal. If they refused to sign a guy for half his value rather than pay any luxury tax, then they really are cheap. But obviously they felt KT was not worth $16 million.

Trying to get the same job done for less money is going to be real challenge. Chances are they will end up settling for someone who cannot replace everything that KT offered, but hopefully theyll find somebody who can fill at least some of his role as a defender/rebounder without hands of stone.

 

[Statmaster]

I agree that the team must look at the contribution of any player added......but if we could get someone with a proven ability to produce....Camby, Foster, Najera, Wilcox, Gooden, Varejao, etc.....I think the contribution would be obvious and then you can look at it another way....if payroll went to $74 + 6 LT = $80mil...that translates to a 17.8% premium for EACH player(14 player roster). Not saying it is a better way to look at the $....just a different way.

A large profit is still there for the team....even if payroll totals go to $80mil....including the LT.

 

[arwillan]

ive been preaching "get camby" all along, but i dont see it happening now. what appeal do we have to him as a player? a shot at a championship? he has melo and AI on his team as it is. money? we can offer the minimum. minutes? sure, but iirc he gets plenty combined with Nene.