2 points on the end of game scenario

[long_season]

BA and challenges

Think last week against seattle he was 2 for 3 on challenges - and the 3rd would have been the first time a coach has won 3 challenges per the commentators. I thought the third should have been upheld as well (against seattle)...bad spot on a 3rd or 4th and 1.. think it was the seattle full back that was running it.

The replays in the stadium were ridiculous (as they always are). As others stated the big screen in the stadium didn't show the clinching picture on the fumble until after the ref was done in the booth. Not sure who does the replays during home games but he or she leaves a lot to be desired. If it is a technical problem Bill needs to spend some money there - if it is a replay operator issue we need a new operator.

I don't need to see the replay forward and backwards at speed - i need you to slow mo to the point of interest (e.g. knee down) and see where the darn ball is.

 

[daves]

Oh I love Arians but he has a really bad habit of challenging plays on what appear to just be anger or something. [....]
Obviously he has people upstairs too but this has been the case as long as he's been there.

BA is a great HC but his challenges are beyond mind boggling. He needs eyes in the skies instead of going with his gut.

I went looking for stats on challenge success rate, and here's what i found:

In 2013, Arians was well above average - possibly tops in the league, though with a small sample size of 4/6:
https://news.sportsinteraction.com/...-worst-records-when-the-flag-is-thrown-83188/

In 2014, Arians must've gone 4/7, boosting his cumulative success rate to that point to 8/13, which was good for 7th best of all time, albeit still with a smallish sample size.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3ef4jp/a_statistical_breakdown_of_challenge_accuracy

I'm not sure where to find info on challenge results for 2015, short of going through every single game book on pro-football-reference or nfl.com, but at least in his first two years, Arians seemed to be using challenges very wisely.

...dbs

 

[Ed Burmila]

And a different point, given the 10 second runoff rule why don't teams simply kill the clock at say 11 seconds? That way if the refs don't make that call, it's 5 yards back and 10 seconds off and we have 1 second left. Makes for a much longer FG try of course now a 50 yarder instead of a 45(without the penalty on Cincy) but that way there is no chance that a lineman jumps and the runoff sends you to OT.

This is a great point, the 11 second thing is smart in case of an offensive penalty with a runoff. The average FG play takes 5-6 seconds but realistically the other team is not going to have a chance to run a play other than a mess of laterals on the kickoff. That's a pretty low percentage play, to say the least.

I'd say the odds of a flag-happy NFL crew throwing a flag on the FG attempt are higher than the odds of the other team executing 15 laterals to score.

 

[Ed Burmila]

Also I don't get the BS about Green's not-catch at the pylon. He didn't even get ONE foot in bounds let alone two. That wasn't just not a catch - it wasn't even close to a catch.

 

[LoyaltyisaCurse]

That's my point have NFL teams actually done the math and decided it's more likely stopping at say 11 seconds might give time for the other team to come back?

If you do that the 10 second runoff doesn't stop you from getting to kick the ball.

It's pretty rare that it happens I agree, but how often do teams trailing by 3 with less than 10 seconds get the KO and tie or win the game? that seems pretty rare too.

I assume they reason they don't is they're afraid they're going to miss the kick and give the other team time to run a play get in FG range and win it themselves. THat is they're doing it out of concern of missing the kick more than we're going to make the kick and then they'll return the KO and get in FG range.

-Time doesn't matter with clock stopped, the runoff is enforced when clock is running with under 2 minutes in the game.

 

[Cardiac]

I went looking for stats on challenge success rate, and here's what i found:

In 2013, Arians was well above average - possibly tops in the league, though with a small sample size of 4/6:
https://news.sportsinteraction.com/...-worst-records-when-the-flag-is-thrown-83188/

In 2014, Arians must've gone 4/7, boosting his cumulative success rate to that point to 8/13, which was good for 7th best of all time, albeit still with a smallish sample size.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3ef4jp/a_statistical_breakdown_of_challenge_accuracy

I'm not sure where to find info on challenge results for 2015, short of going through every single game book on pro-football-reference or nfl.com, but at least in his first two years, Arians seemed to be using challenges very wisely.

...dbs

Great stuff daves, truly love your posts and the research you do. Keep on keeping it real.

 

[daves]

Great stuff daves, truly love your posts and the research you do. Keep on keeping it real.

Thanks! Dunno why i dropped that little tagline i used to use. Maybe because i've been posting more opinion lately than just researching facts when i see something that strikes me as inaccurate. Funny that you remember it!

...dbs

 

[100%CardsFan]

Coaching, you need to keep a TO. Players, need to be smart and not give up the flag for the run off to be an issue.

I can only think of one game in recent memory that we screwed up with the run off and that was Warner about 7 years ago (Rams maybe). I would rather trust my team than possibly give the ball back.

EOT I was thinking about that game! THAT GAME is what poured fuel on the my hatred for the rams. I remember that moment for 2 reasons. I was in the NEZ at SDS and Cards were down inside the 30 if I remember possibly closer and it was Warner on Cards vs Bulger..then like slow motion I see the flag go flying and hear the ref .."False Start number 75, under 10 seconds will runoff w the being over" I was soooooo pissed and to my 2nd reason. There were a good 12k of LA rams fans and mixed in w stl rams. Bigggg difference between the 2. For my own personal encounters its like in 1989 The LA rams fan was arrested in his Dickerson jersey, was just released from prison since 89 and the prison gave them their clothes and a ticket to see them play us. After the false srart this rams fan I was jarrin at back n forth jumps up elbowing me so now me and him have a lil tussle and his stupid girlfriend rams fan actually took her stupid rams towel and whipped it in my eye. I never ever wanted to knockout a woman before that. The sun, 5th of Capt Morgan, that elbow then towel whip from rams fans in AZ! And thats how the fights start, some games taping up my hands and wrists and bring a mouthguard.
Then had my son who now is 6 and my lookout on everything including the Cardinals games. Im suprised the "1998" me wasnt stabbed at a game...lol oh wait that guy in the RV in 2009 Green Bay playoff game couldnt handle a verbal disagreement, went into his RV and came out pointing a snubnose revolver at us. Jim aka diehardcardfan and a bunch if others saw the whole thing......smh

 

[Buckybird]

I went looking for stats on challenge success rate, and here's what i found:

In 2013, Arians was well above average - possibly tops in the league, though with a small sample size of 4/6:
https://news.sportsinteraction.com/...-worst-records-when-the-flag-is-thrown-83188/

In 2014, Arians must've gone 4/7, boosting his cumulative success rate to that point to 8/13, which was good for 7th best of all time, albeit still with a smallish sample size.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/3ef4jp/a_statistical_breakdown_of_challenge_accuracy

I'm not sure where to find info on challenge results for 2015, short of going through every single game book on pro-football-reference or nfl.com, but at least in his first two years, Arians seemed to be using challenges very wisely.

...dbs

I guess I wasn't clear enough. It's more about the obvious ones that he has no business challenging.

IMO BA (as well as others) challenge plays that we as fans clearly see the instant the replay is shown basically have zero chance in winning. Someone in the booth has to see the same thing or BA just says what the heck here goes.

Last night & the 4th down play in Seattle last week were perfect examples. No business challenging either. That lack of timeout nearly put us in OT last night

 

[WisconsinCard]

Right, but Arians doesn't have the NBC replay in front of him, just what's on the jumbotron and they're not the same. Remember, it was fumbled and in that instance it was worth the risk. The endzone shot that showed the players knee down was the very last one shown to the crowd before the ref came out.

The coaches upstairs have all the replays available to them. They call down to coach to throw the red flag or not. Obviously they may tell him it's close and could go either way in which he would only have the jumbotron to make his decision.

Sorry didn't see that Russ had already answered.

 

[WisconsinCard]

This is a great point, the 11 second thing is smart in case of an offensive penalty with a runoff. The average FG play takes 5-6 seconds but realistically the other team is not going to have a chance to run a play other than a mess of laterals on the kickoff. That's a pretty low percentage play, to say the least.

I'd say the odds of a flag-happy NFL crew throwing a flag on the FG attempt are higher than the odds of the other team executing 15 laterals to score.

Ok but here is the rub, lets just say we do line up to spike it at 11 seconds and we false start. They enforce the 5 yards and run the clock down to 1 second, but would the clock start when the ball is set and the "ready to play" signal is given by the Ref? If so you probably wont get the kick off in time.

 

[English on tour]

EOT I was thinking about that game! THAT GAME is what poured fuel on the my hatred for the rams. I remember that moment for 2 reasons. I was in the NEZ at SDS and Cards were down inside the 30 if I remember possibly closer and it was Warner on Cards vs Bulger..then like slow motion I see the flag go flying and hear the ref .."False Start number 75, under 10 seconds will runoff w the being over" I was soooooo pissed and to my 2nd reason. There were a good 12k of LA rams fans and mixed in w stl rams. Bigggg difference between the 2. For my own personal encounters its like in 1989 The LA rams fan was arrested in his Dickerson jersey, was just released from prison since 89 and the prison gave them their clothes and a ticket to see them play us. After the false srart this rams fan I was jarrin at back n forth jumps up elbowing me so now me and him have a lil tussle and his stupid girlfriend rams fan actually took her stupid rams towel and whipped it in my eye. I never ever wanted to knockout a woman before that. The sun, 5th of Capt Morgan, that elbow then towel whip from rams fans in AZ! And thats how the fights start, some games taping up my hands and wrists and bring a mouthguard.
Then had my son who now is 6 and my lookout on everything including the Cardinals games. Im suprised the "1998" me wasnt stabbed at a game...lol oh wait that guy in the RV in 2009 Green Bay playoff game couldnt handle a verbal disagreement, went into his RV and came out pointing a snubnose revolver at us. Jim aka diehardcardfan and a bunch if others saw the whole thing......smh

You know when you wish you hadn't brought something up...

It pissed me of too, but the worst I would have had to put up with would have been telling the missus and her saying 'its only a game' or 'you'll get them next time' ... actually that's worse, where's my whipping towel....

 

[Cardiac]

Thanks! Dunno why i dropped that little tagline i used to use. Maybe because i've been posting more opinion lately than just researching facts when i see something that strikes me as inaccurate. Funny that you remember it!

...dbs

It is funny/scary/mystifying to me what I do and don't remember. I can tell you that I remember that tag line because it rang so true and you constantly found facts to correct assumptions and perceptions that all of us spout at one time or another that are wrong or at least open for discussion.

 

[cardncubfan]

Great stuff daves, truly love your posts and the research you do. Keep on keeping it real.

+1 Great stuff daves.

 

[TheHopToad]

The Jets just lost a game last month on a 10 second runoff.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/10/jets-patriots-brandon-marshall-penalty

Not something I'd care to mess around with...

 

[Garthshort]

Is there a coach who tells BA whether or not to challenge a call?

 

[Harry]

I'm okay with the challenge: win it you win the game. You simply can't see all the angles before you have to throw the flag.

I'm good with spiking at 11-13 seconds to guard against a runoff. The field goal will kill half the remains time. With a line drive kickoff you likely kill the rest. Worst case scenario is a 65 yard Hail Mary which is far less likely to beat you than a motion penalty on the line.

 

[Catfish]

Oh I love Arians but he has a really bad habit of challenging plays on what appear to just be anger or something. they had showed a replay that made it clear we weren't winning the challenge long before he threw the flag, if you look at the game thread you'll see a bunch of us saying it and then the flag came out.

Obviously he has people upstairs too but this has been the case as long as he's been there. Maybe he wanted to break any momentum Cincy had after the return by delaying it for the challenge, who knows, but I don't think even he believed that was a fumble.

It could have been a major issue at the end there with us having no timeouts.

I can't argue against that logic Russ. I am just saying that BA is, (and always will be), a pedal to the metal guy. He preaches, (and practices), situational football every practice, and this is precisely one of the situations he is has prepared every member of his offense for. You hear him say almost daily, "no risk it------no bisquit". Everybody has a few warts, and this is one of his. But he IS and old dog, and is not likely to change his spots now. I have simply prepared myself to go along with his program and enjoy the ride to 'who knows where'. We haven't had any rides like this before.

 

[Mitch]

I think Russ' spike it at 11 seconds strategy is ingenious.

 

[frankeegee1]

I think I either read or heard on an interview where he mentioned where he had someone helping him to make the decision of whether or not to challenge.

Also, I'm not so sure that not having those/any timeouts to use at the end wasn't a blessing in disguise, at least for the way this one turned out.

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