2017-2018 Draft Prospects watch.

[CardsSunsDbacks]

First off, Doncic isn't playing PG in the NBA EVER... no way, no how. At 6-8, he would have to be some otherworldly kind of athlete to even consider that, and he's not.

Secondly, I am hard pressed to find what anyone sees as so out of this world about him anyway. Yes, he has a decently mature court awareness and maybe above average handle for his age. But what does that really translate into? He shows no particular signs of being an outstanding shooter, rebounder, defender. I highly doubt he will be an especially high volume scorer, especially being defended by mostly superior athletes at the next level. If he does reach his full potential you maybe end up with a guy who at best is an offensively sound one way player, maybe a decent third or fourth option on a good team.

I see his ceiling as being something like a 15 ppg, 5 rpg, 6 apg kind of player. Not bad... assuming he even reaches his full potential. But not something you pass on two potentially all-league talents like Ayton and Bagley for... or even two high ceiling bigs like Bamba and Jackson.

I would be fine with Doncic as a pick if we end up slotted at somewhere like 5 or 6, or maybe even at 4. But as the top choice with some of the other guys on the board this year? It is sheer folly.

There is no way his ceiling is 15/6/5. That is more like his floor. His ceiling is something more like 25/8/8 IMO. Something in between those to sets of numbers might be the most likely, but his ceiling is without a doubt higher than 15/6/5.

 

[Hoop Head]

Was watching the highlights from Ayton's game on Friday against ASU. I don't know how anyone thinks you could pass on him at #1. He put up 25 points, grabbed 16 rebounds, dished 4 assists, and had 3 blocks. He really seems to be a complete player on the offensive end and is a good rebounder. He looks NBA ready and pairing him with Booker and Warren should allow him to ease his way into the pro game. With their scoring leading the way he wouldn't need to carry the team as a rookie and he could start off as the 2nd or 3rd option offensively. He would do better here than if he were selected by the Kings, Hawks, or Bulls.

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[ColdPickleNachos]

Is anyone even arguing against Ayton at #1 anymore? It seems even those who have concerns or like other players more than most are pretty much in agreement we can't pass on Ayton. I could be missing someone, but I think the consensus on here is that Ayton should be the #1 pick (which almost guarantees we won't get it).

 

[WildBB]

While I agree, I do want to point out that neither of the top-rated bigs are really defensive players. Ayton might be a worse defender than Shaq, and Bagley isn't much better. Additionally, the Suns are not good enough just yet to not take the best player available. I maintain that's Ayton, but he isn't a defensive presence.

Ok, I haven't watched much of him. But against ASU, he was at least changing and blocking shots.

What about the Mutombo guy, Bamba or something?

 

[WildBB]

Is anyone even arguing against Ayton at #1 anymore? It seems even those who have concerns or like other players more than most are pretty much in agreement we can't pass on Ayton. I could be missing someone, but I think the consensus on here is that Ayton should be the #1 pick (which almost guarantees we won't get it).

He won't be everyones #1, I'd suspect. No clear cut #1, mtl.

 

[SirStefan32]

Is anyone even arguing against Ayton at #1 anymore? It seems even those who have concerns or like other players more than most are pretty much in agreement we can't pass on Ayton. I could be missing someone, but I think the consensus on here is that Ayton should be the #1 pick (which almost guarantees we won't get it).

I am certainly not arguing against Ayton at #1. I am concerned about his defense, work ethic, and motor, but he is way too talented to not draft at #1. It gets murky after that, though. There is something about Bagley that bothers me, though I can't put my finger on it- he does a lot of thinks well, but he is not exceptional at any one thing. Doncic and Young- very concerned about their defense. Mamba is interesting, but I am just not sure about how he is going to develop. Jackson is interesting- he actually reminds me of Bender in a lot of ways- he can do a few things really well, seems to understand the game, and doesn't make too many silly mistakes. I think he has a fairly high floor, but I don't know what his ceiling is. Can't say anything about Porter because I have never seen him play.

 

[elindholm]

There is no way his ceiling is 15/6/5. That is more like his floor.

How can 15/6/5 be his floor, when he's not even getting those numbers now as one of the best players in Euroleague?

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

He’s going to get abused on D by Super quick guards or have to be hidden on D and turn the starting lineup upside down because of switches. If you have a chance at a complete player... a guy who could dominate at BOTH ends or at least be very effective at both ends, you don’t pass that up for a guy who will constantly putting you at a disadvantage on D.

I’m sick of this team being bad on D. Moving forward, two our three studs (if Donicic ended up a stud) would be average at best defensively. That ain’t winning us a title.

Not necessarily true if the other role players are 3 and D types.

Look at the draft this year. There are a lot of studs. None have exhibited the equal balance you’re craving:

Ayton - defense questionable
Doncic - defense liability
Young - defense liability
Bagley - defense liability
Porter - defense liability (also just don’t know beyond high school)
Bamba - offensively challenged
JJJ - maybe the most balance prospect now that I think of it - could he skyrocket up boards at draft time?
Sexton - currently defensively limited

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Was watching the highlights from Ayton's game on Friday against ASU. I don't know how anyone thinks you could pass on him at #1. He put up 25 points, grabbed 16 rebounds, dished 4 assists, and had 3 blocks. He really seems to be a complete player on the offensive end and is a good rebounder. He looks NBA ready and pairing him with Booker and Warren should allow him to ease his way into the pro game. With their scoring leading the way he wouldn't need to carry the team as a rookie and he could start off as the 2nd or 3rd option offensively. He would do better here than if he were selected by the Kings, Hawks, or Bulls.

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I’m an ayton or bust guy. But you don’t get it because you read a box score and watched highlights. His numbers skyrocketed down the stretch. Halfway through the game cheese texted me and said, “im not seeing the hype.” And ayton has those less impressive stretches. Like he had gamelong against UCLA. He’s atill the #1 in my eyes, and by a shot. But there’s reason for doubters.

 

[overseascardfan]

Not necessarily true if the other role players are 3 and D types.

Look at the draft this year. There are a lot of studs. None have exhibited the equal balance you’re craving:

Ayton - defense questionable
Doncic - defense liability
Young - defense liability
Bagley - defense liability
Porter - defense liability (also just don’t know beyond high school)
Bamba - offensively challenged
JJJ - maybe the most balance prospect now that I think of it - could he skyrocket up boards at draft time?
Sexton - currently defensively limited

Add Wendell Carter to that group, his stock looks to be on the rise and maybe the most well rounded big in the draft.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Add Wendell Carter to that group, his stock looks to be on the rise and maybe the most well rounded big in the draft.

Least upside though in my observation. I could see him being a Charles Oakley lunch pail guy.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

How can 15/6/5 be his floor, when he's not even getting those numbers now as one of the best players in Euroleague?

He is putting 18/5/5 in Euroleague this season and that is in 26 minutes per game (about as much minutes as anyone gets in that league). Per 36 that is 25/7/6.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

Least upside though in my observation. I could see him being a Charles Oakley lunch pail guy.

The guy I see him being compared to most on the high end is Al Horford, who's awesome, but also the penultimate pick in the all-star game draft.

 

[overseascardfan]

Least upside though in my observation. I could see him being a Charles Oakley lunch pail guy.

He is much more skilled than an Oakley lunch pail guy. He can play inside and has shown the ability to take his offense out to the 3pt line. Much better defender than people give him credit for because Duke as a whole is a bad defensive team. He pretty much does it all and comparisons to Al Horford are not far off.

 

[3rdside]

I am certainly not arguing against Ayton at #1. I am concerned about his defense, work ethic, and motor, but he is way too talented to not draft at #1. It gets murky after that, though. There is something about Bagley that bothers me, though I can't put my finger on it- he does a lot of thinks well, but he is not exceptional at any one thing. Doncic and Young- very concerned about their defense. Mamba is interesting, but I am just not sure about how he is going to develop. Jackson is interesting- he actually reminds me of Bender in a lot of ways- he can do a few things really well, seems to understand the game, and doesn't make too many silly mistakes. I think he has a fairly high floor, but I don't know what his ceiling is. Can't say anything about Porter because I have never seen him play.

Agreed on Bagley, part of it is he can’t shoot - his style when he shoots free throws suggests he has little idea what he’s doing - and not that he’s shoots that many but I reckon he’ll struggle with nba length three’s negating this ‘strength’ of his.

Pass.


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[elindholm]

He is putting 18/5/5 in Euroleague this season and that is in 26 minutes per game (about as much minutes as anyone gets in that league).

Thank you; for some reason when I first looked up his stats, I found different numbers.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Thank you; for some reason when I first looked up his stats, I found different numbers.

He has played in 2 leagues this year. His per game averages in both leagues combined is 16/5/5 and 23/8/6 per 36. The numbers in my previous post were only from Euroleague.

 

[SirStefan32]

Also, in Europe... stats are a bit different. generally speaking, there is less scoring than in the NBA, assists are kept track of differently, minutes are distributed more evenly, scoring tends to be more spread out too. 16/5/5 is bloody amazing in Europe.

 

[Carolinacacti]

Ping pong balls never work for the Suns. Take Ayton off the board and who do you take? I take the Euro kid.

 

[SirStefan32]

I need to watch more of that Jackson kid. He seems to be a good fit with Bender. Both of them can play 4 and 5, both of them can switch on smaller players on the perimeter, and both of them can hit threes.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I need to watch more of that Jackson kid. He seems to be a good fit with Bender. Both of them can play 4 and 5, both of them can switch on smaller players on the perimeter, and both of them can hit trees.

Now why we gotta take this all anti-arboreal?!?

 

[SirStefan32]

Now why we gotta take this all anti-arboreal?!?

Ha! Nice catch!

 

[Matt L]

I do think Ayton is number 1 overall. After that, I really like Bamba, i would work out Trae Young, I would trust the scouts about Doncic. Bagley looks like a really good college big man but an okay pro.

 

[ColdPickleNachos]

I go back and forth on Bamba as a top 3 pick. The Suns have so many raw young players that bringing in another concerns me in a draft the Suns can't afford to mess up. However, he would potentially be the perfect fit, his upside is huge, and he strikes me as the type of person who will work hard to reach that upside.

I mean, how many prospects can say they have a 7'9" wingspan AND attended the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT TWICE?!

 

[JCSunsfan]

I go back and forth on Bamba as a top 3 pick. The Suns have so many raw young players that bringing in another concerns me in a draft the Suns can't afford to mess up. However, he would potentially be the perfect fit, his upside is huge, and he strikes me as the type of person who will work hard to reach that upside.

I mean, how many prospects can say they have a 7'9" wingspan AND attended the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT TWICE?!

Bamba is a very intelligent kid. His interviews are quite impressive. I have no doubt he will be a student of the game. I know that head smarts do not always indicate basketball smarts. But when you put any kind of smarts together with a 7'9" wingspan, a 9'6" standing reach, and great athleticism, you have to get something good.