2017 & the Cap

Harry

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Over the Cap is an excellent website but you have to be careful how you use it. The cap space it shows is often an illusion. For example it shows the Cards have $37 million for 2017. However that number is based solely on players under contract. A closer look reveals a good chunk of that money will go to just field all the positions.

On offense the Cards have Boehm as the only center. He wasn't good enough to unseat Shipley. If you want Shipley back or any other starting center take $1 million at least off that cap. Want a top player like Alex Mack take off $4 million. Want to replace Mathis (FA) and have a Watford (FA) level backup, there goes another $5 million. So just filling the O-line with the same range of players eats up $6 million.

Want to play with 3 tight ends on the roster? Want a veteran with even Gresham level skills? That's another $3.5 million. Niklas and Momah are under contract for next year so now you've spent $9.5 million and it's time to look at running backs. Ellington and Johnson are both gone, so it's $3 million to replace them. That puts you at $12.5 used and the receivers will need some help.

Floyd is gone. Let's say they draft 12th and Mike Williams falls to them. That's around $2.5 million. Jaron Brown re-signed for about $1.5 million. So you've now spent $16.5 million and you really just have about the same level of players or less experienced ones on offense.

That doesn't seem like a disaster, you've got $21 million left for defense. I'll look at that in depth in a few days but if they tag Jones, there goes $15 million. Now you've still got to pay for the rest of the draft picks and oh yeah replace Campbell, Rucker, Minter, Jefferson and Swearinger with your remaining $6 million.

I've left out some maneuvering the Cards can do, which I'll cover later. However the Cards have cap problems just to put the same team on the field. That's why I say it's likely time to part with Palmer. That probably means Fitz leaves as well. Trying to squeeze out one more run seems a fantasy. The Cards have handsomely rewarded their good players. However, the bill is now coming due. The Cards need an impact draft, not the gambling projections they been mostly selecting. Sometimes a few wins just make a group over confident. It's time to place more secure selections and start developing some players. However, even with a good draft this will be a hard off-season just to come out a playoff contender.
 

gmabel830

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This assumes Palmer and Fitzgerald are still on the roster...but they would need to be replaced too if not back

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TJ

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This is like the third time Harry has indicated that the team will/should cut Palmer. :mulli:

The notion of cutting Palmer is not only unrealistic, it's absurd. If you let go of Palmer, you're forfeiting the 2017 season as there are no other options out there than could a) produce at his level and b) learn the offense in one season. If anything, the organization may look to add a QBotF to groom behind Palmer, but who knows based on recent track record.

Keim and Arians are not of the mindset of rebuilding. It's not part of their vernacular. Realistically, if the team stays the course, KEEPS PALMER, and re-signs key free agent, the window of hope can be extended by a year.

Then again, all bets are off if Palmer decides to retire, which I would say is unlikely to happen.
 
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SeattleCard

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Harry - great post, thanks!

I have to agree however with the sentiment that Palmer will be our QB in 2017. I can almost guarantee Larry will be back. He appears very interested in leaving the greatest legacy possible and that includes stats.

It's going to be tough to field a team that can win the superbowl in 2017.

I wonder what Seattle's cap position looks like in 2017? Do they face the same issues? Would it level the playing field?
 

kerouac9

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This is like the third time Harry has indicated that the team will/should cut Palmer. :mulli:

The notion of cutting Palmer is not only unrealistic, it's absurd. If you let go of Palmer, you're forfeiting the 2017 season as there are no other options out there than could a) produce at his level and b) learn the offense in one season. If anything, the organization may look to add a QBotF to groom behind Palmer, but who knows based on recent track record.

Keim and Arians are not of the mindset of rebuilding. It's not part of their vernacular. Realistically, if the team stays the course, KEEPS PALMER, and re-signs key free agent, the window of hope can be extended by a year.

Then again, all bets are off if Palmer decides to retire, which I would say is unlikely to happen.

I think Palmer will be back, but there are a lot of QBs who could play below-average football that Palmer's playing. You could get Jay Cutler on maybe a "prove-it" deal for whatever you're having to pay Carson next year. Heck, Drew Stanton wouldn't be a huge drop off from the uninspired football we've seen from CP3.
 

Shane

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This is like the third time Harry has indicated that the team will/should cut Palmer. :mulli:

The notion of cutting Palmer is not only unrealistic, it's absurd. If you let go of Palmer, you're forfeiting the 2017 season as there are no other options out there than could a) produce at his level and b) learn the offense in one season. If anything, the organization may look to add a QBotF to groom behind Palmer, but who knows based on recent track record.

Keim and Arians are not of the mindset of rebuilding. It's not part of their vernacular. Realistically, if the team stays the course, KEEPS PALMER, and re-signs key free agent, the window of hope can be extended by a year.

Then again, all bets are off if Palmer decides to retire, which I would say is unlikely to happen.

Window or hope with CP??? OMG that's funny TJ... Hes done dude time to accept it.
 

cardpa

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Reading Harry's post brought to mind a question. With guys like Niklas you wonder why they don't just offer him a injury settlement . Can a player decline one and how does that affect the cap situation. What does it do with an existing contract.
 

Russ Smith

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This is like the third time Harry has indicated that the team will/should cut Palmer. :mulli:

The notion of cutting Palmer is not only unrealistic, it's absurd. If you let go of Palmer, you're forfeiting the 2017 season as there are no other options out there than could a) produce at his level and b) learn the offense in one season. If anything, the organization may look to add a QBotF to groom behind Palmer, but who knows based on recent track record.

Keim and Arians are not of the mindset of rebuilding. It's not part of their vernacular. Realistically, if the team stays the course, KEEPS PALMER, and re-signs key free agent, the window of hope can be extended by a year.

Then again, all bets are off if Palmer decides to retire, which I would say is unlikely to happen.


I think the only logical reason to cut Palmer would be one of 2 things, you want to tank the season and get a high pick to draft a QB in the next draft, if you really like one and I'm not sure who that is? This time a year ago I might have said Josh Rosen but he was not nearly as good this year in a pro set and then had a serious shoulder injury that required surgery. If you ask me now I might say Sam Darnold of USC a RS freshman who has completely turned their team around. Has size and a big arm, he can move and unlike Rosen he seems to see the field well. I mentioned him awhile back and most disagreed but the kid has been a revelation this year and will probably go into next season as a top 5 Heisman Favorite and again he's a RS freshman so I'm pretty sure he's draft eligible after next year even though he'll be 20 and won't turn 21 until June of 2018.

The other is if you think you have already identified the QBOTF and need cap space to both get that player and others. As others have mentioned I have absolutely no idea who that guy is. I don't think there is an obvious guy. People bring up Cutler and I've even seen him compared to Palmer in a guy who people wrote off until he got to a good team but Cutler inherited a playoff team in Denver and eventually they were so unhappy they didn't keep him and they're a playoff team again. The Bears won 9 games the year before they got Cutler and have only done that twice since they got him. Point being Palmer played for 2 terrible teams and terrible franchises before he got here, Cutler has played on an elite franchise and a Bears team that while not exactly loaded was not terrible when he got there. It's not clear to me his issues are as much to do with being on a bad team as Palmers were.

My guess is we keep him, I can't really see Keim or Arians wanting to tank.
 
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