2023 draft trade in hindsight

[GeorgiaCard88]

Now 2 years out- how do you feel about the 2023 infamous trade? I honestly feel like it turned out to be quite fair - and could really turn out to tip in the cardinals favor if Darius Robinson (who had one of the toughest hands that could possibly have been dealt to a rookie) plays well.

Texans got what looks like a consistent pro bowl caliber edge rusher in Anderson balanced by us getting a foundational rock at LT in Johnson and one of the rising best corners in Garrett Williams. BJ is a bust so far but has potential to change his stars this year if he can stay healthy and jury is out on Elijah jones.

 

[CardNots]

I’m fine with the trade and subsequent picks at this moment.

I need to see how the upcoming contracts workout for the players mentioned and the impact to the two teams before a solid yay or nay.

 

[Goldfield]

Seems like it was a good trade for both teams.

 

[kerouac9]

Based on the results to this point? We lost. We have a B-tier OT, a very good rotational corner who isn't where Honey Badger was at this point in his career, and magic beans.

If Darius Robinson and Beej turn out to be good, the equation changes. But there's vanishingly little evidence of that to date. Pure hopium.

Houston is 20-14 with two conference titles and two playoff wins since the trade. They were 7-26 in the two seasons before it.

Arizona is 12-22 since the trade, finishing last and next-to-last in the division. They were 15-19 in the two preceding seasons.

 

[Proximo]

I like it quite a bit. Garrett Williams is great, Paris is quite good. BJ has shown signs already of at least being decent, and Darius Robinson should turn out good too.

3 or 4 starters seems like a better deal than 1 who has less sacks than Josh Sweat over the last 2 years.

 

[Chopper0080]

Based on the results to this point? We lost. We have a B-tier OT, a very good rotational corner who isn't where Honey Badger was at this point in his career, and magic beans.

If Darius Robinson and Beej turn out to be good, the equation changes. But there's vanishingly little evidence of that to date. Pure hopium.

Houston is 20-14 with two conference titles and two playoff wins since the trade. They were 7-26 in the two seasons before it.

Arizona is 12-22 since the trade, finishing last and next-to-last in the division. They were 15-19 in the two preceding seasons.

This is why these discussions are so tough. Right now, the return for Houston seems to be more impactful. That also could change as there is the potential for further development from the Cardinals prospects.

The most interesting part of this is in the alternative reality where the Cardinals take Will Anderson, do they take Joe Alt in the 2024 draft instead of MHJ?

 

[kerouac9]

That also could change as there is the potential for further development from the Cardinals prospects.

Yeah but clocks ticking on that. Williams and PJJ are 11 months away from being extension-eligible. Beej, Darius Robinson, and Elijah Jones have zero NFL starts combined.

You aren’t getting the year back on any of those guys. Very soon we’ll start hearing that if Garrett Williams was a first- or second-round pick everyone would be very happy. So let’s just decide that Williams was the second round pick and Beej was the third and now that draft looks good.

 

[PDXChris]

This is why these discussions are so tough. Right now, the return for Houston seems to be more impactful. That also could change as there is the potential for further development from the Cardinals prospects.

The most interesting part of this is in the alternative reality where the Cardinals take Will Anderson, do they take Joe Alt in the 2024 draft instead of MHJ?

It's also though, because had we selected Will Anderson, he night have only gotten 3-4 sacks with that DL his rookie year and all the double teams he would have seen as a rookie. We might be calling him out as a B- player, too.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Yeah but clocks ticking on that. Williams and PJJ are 11 months away from being extension-eligible.

That is a weird statement. What does being Extension eligible have to do with this? The only date that matters for PJJ would be when they pick up his 5th year option, which is a no brainer yes. The only date that matters for Williams is when he becomes a FA in two years.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Right now it’s a very bad trade. It was made with the intention of having 2 probable top 5 picks last year.
The Cardinals upheld their part of the bargain by stinking but the Texans made the playoffs and solidified the top 2 impactful positions on the team.

Saying you liked this trade for the Cards is wearing complete cardinal colored glasses.

 

[kerouac9]

It's also though, because had we selected Will Anderson, he night have only gotten 3-4 sacks with that DL his rookie year and all the double teams he would have seen as a rookie. We might be calling him out as a B- player, too.

Your command of the multiverse is impressive

 

[kerouac9]

That is a weird statement. What does being Extension eligible have to do with this? The only date that matters for PJJ would be when they pick up his 5th year option, which is a no brainer yes. The only date that matters for Williams is when he becomes a FA in two years.

Because if the Cards aren’t ready to win right now, you’re looking at dawdling through the cost-controlled years of these players. Isn’t the point of building through the draft that you retain your young talent through their prime years?

 

[kerouac9]

3 or 4 starters seems like a better deal than 1 who has less sacks than Josh Sweat over the last 2 years

Anderson has 18 sacks over the past two years. Sweat has 14.5.

Yes, the trade looks much better if you don’t confine yourself to reality.

 

[HairZach]

I'm convinced we would have taken Paris at 3, so unless we cut Darius next year I think it worked out well. People got freaked out because last off season ONE website ranked Paris as the #3 OT in that draft behind Broderick and Darnell Wright, but Paris solidified himself as the top dog of that group in year 2. I think we still have a couple guys who downplay Paris because the Seahawks DL was so dominant or because he's not Sewell or Joe Alt?

Its a lot easier to find pass rush outside of the top 10 than a good LT

 

[outcent13]

Does the equation change if Stroud gets killed this year due to no offensive line?

I’m not sure how to grade the trade after two years. Anderson is good no doubt about it but this team needed so much more than one guy at the time so it’s hard to say we lost and I certainly wouldn’t say we won either(yet).

 

[MadCardDisease]

Because if the Cards aren’t ready to win right now, you’re looking at dawdling through the cost-controlled years of these players. Isn’t the point of building through the draft that you retain your young talent through their prime years?

Sure, one plus of building through the draft is cost control. However it isn't the main reason. Building through the draft allows you to continually build upon your young core. These young players are brought up through your system and culture. Ideally when their rookie contracts are up you re-sign them to long term deals keeping that core intact.

When you go through a complete rebuild like the Cardinals recently experienced, the first couple of draft classes initial cost control years will be wasted. There is no getting around that. Still I'm sure when Monti drafted PJJ the last thing on his mind was how much money he was saving on PJJ rookie contract. Don't make @Stout get his "Cap Space" jersey out!

 

[kerouac9]

When you go through a complete rebuild like the Cardinals recently experienced, the first couple of draft classes initial cost control years will be wasted. There is no getting around that.

Denver seemed to manage it. As did Houston.

This is not rule; it was a choice.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Denver seemed to manage it. As did Houston.

This is not rule; it was a choice.

Houston for sure did. Nick Caserio took over in 2021 and gutted that team. Nico Collins wasted away on two really bad teams in 2021 and 2022.

The Broncos choose not to do a complete rebuild. They are now as Mid a team as you can get.

 

[Chopper0080]

Denver seemed to manage it. As did Houston.

This is not rule; it was a choice.

I agree that what Monti did was make a choice of how he wanted to rebuild. I agree that other teams have handled a rebuild differently with success. I can't say if or how much Bidwill influenced our direction. I can say that Arizona's losing history has created a fan base that accepts losing as a viable strategy.

 

[BirdGangThing]

monti let zach allen and will anderson walk because he didn't plan to compete in his first year - probably because kyler was gimp mode - regardless - houston was in a different position and capitalized on it by being able to draft the two most important positions back to freakin back but monti had to wait on kyler - and we have to wait and see how them draft picks pan out

 

[BACH]

Based on the results to this point? We lost. We have a B-tier OT, a very good rotational corner who isn't where Honey Badger was at this point in his career, and magic beans.

If Darius Robinson and Beej turn out to be good, the equation changes. But there's vanishingly little evidence of that to date. Pure hopium.

Houston is 20-14 with two conference titles and two playoff wins since the trade. They were 7-26 in the two seasons before it.

Arizona is 12-22 since the trade, finishing last and next-to-last in the division. They were 15-19 in the two preceding seasons.

Yeah, but it's opium to make this a literal comparison.
You cannot use this as the only parameters.

Cardinals were one year behind in the re-build. The franchise QB was out of half the season. They play in a top 3 division, while Texans plays in the by far worst division.

You can only look at the player to player comparison. And you are hedging everything on a non-substantive pro-bowl selection made by fans. Anderson ranked #9 at a top 3 position. PJJ ranked #12 at a top 3 position. That is your metrics.

EDIT: Armstead has retired. It's now comparing the #9 Edge vs. the #11 OT.

Right now.

Texans
Anderson - 1B player at high-value position
Pro-Bowl level player, but not elite
Bullock - 3B player at low level position
Fringe starter with 13 starts in 2 seasons

Cardinals
PJJ - 2A player at high-value position
BJ - ? at high-value position
Williams - 1B player at mid-value position
Moore - ? at mid-value position
DR - ? at mid-value position

IMO even at the moment. Time will tell if that change.

But concluding that we don't know yet is the same as saying that we expect BJ, DR and Moore to make 0 contribution and PJJ to make 0 development. That is more just silly than the "hopium" statement from you.