2024 Build Through the Draft Weeks 1-4 Summary/Status

[Chopper0080]

This is team "build through the draft" so far. I am going to look at a couple different things.

2023 - 1 - Paris Johnson - OT - 97% of snaps this season.
Some claims that he is a top 12 OT.

2023 - 2 - BJ Ojulari - EDGE - 0% in 2024. (injured)
37% of snaps in 2023.

2023 - 3 - Garrett Williams - CB - 75.2% of snaps in 2024.
2 ints in 13 games played. Coverage #s have been but rocking a 27.6% missed tackle rate in 2024. Best coverage numbers for Cards but nickel only guy.

2023 - 3 - Michael Wilson - WR - 80.41% of snaps in 2024.
41.4 yards per game over career. 34.5 yards per game in 2024 which is down from 2023. I personally think he is best suited as a big, slot WR option and WR3.

2023 - 4 - Jon Gaines - IOL - 0% of snaps in 2024. (inactive)
sed all 2023 on IR, and inactive every game so far in 2024. Unsure where he fits after Froholdt extension.

2023 - 5 - Clayton Tune - QB - 2.4% of snaps in 2024.
Won backup battle with Ridder.

2023 - 5 - Owen Pappoe - LB - 15.35% of defensive snaps in 2024.
80% special teams snaps.

2023 - 6 - Kei'trel Clark - CB - 5.12% of defensive snaps.
30% special teams snaps. Seems like he is not long for this roster.

2023 - 6 - Dante Stills - DL - 37.01% of defensive snaps in 2024.
Less than LJ Collier. 4.5 sacks in 18 games played.

2024 - 1 - Marvin Harrison Jr - WR - 84.49% of snaps in 2024.
60.8 yards per game and 1 TD per game to start career.

2024 - 1 - Darius Robinson - EDGE - 0% of snaps in 2024 (injured)
Practice window not open yet.

2024 - 2 - Max Melton - CB - 27.56% of defensive snaps in 2024.
64.29% of special teams snaps. Coverage stats are not kind so far but limited sample size and zero pass rush.

2024 - 3 - Trey Benson - RB - 17.55% of offensive snaps in 2024.
3.2 yards per attempt. 2 receptions on the year.

2024 - 3 - Isaiah Adams - IOL - 2.45% of snaps in 2024.
Behind Evan Brown on the roster. Has been active every game (I believe).

2024 - 3 - Tip Raiman - TE - 42.04% of snaps in 2024.
0 targets.

2024 - 3 - Elijah Jones - CB - 0% of snaps in 2024. (injured)

2024 - 4 - Dadrion Taylor-Demerson - S- 4.72% of snaps in 2024.
Playing behind Baker and Thompson.

2024 - 5 - Xavier Thomas - EDGE - 23.23% of snaps in 2024.
Pre-season darling. Zero pressures. Zero TFLs.

2024 - 5 - Christian Jones - OT - 0% of snaps in 2024. (injured)
Practice window now open.

2024 - 6 - Tejhaun Palmer - WR - 0% (practice squad)

2024 - 7 - Jaden Davis - CB - 0% (practice squad)

 

[Chopper0080]

Looking at this with a snap judgement summary.

Monti has hit on both of his top 10 picks. Both play premium positions (WR and LT) and both have produced right away.

Round 2 is looking sketchy. Ojulari was not very impactful when he did play in 2023, and Melton is stuck behind a bad ST5. It's early, but these should have been layups on such a bad roster.

Round 3 might be ok. Monti seems to target this as a role player round or targeting guys at less key positions. Williams and Wilson were both slow starters in 2023. Both have looked good in 2024. Wilson might not be a WR2, but getting a WR3 and CB3 in round 3 is good. Tip has been essentially a 6th OL so far but is getting snaps and seems to be a decent blocker. Benson looks bad but is getting some snaps. Adams is behind the worst starting OL in Brown. That said, OG and RB are not bad positions to target in round 3. Kinda disappointing Monti seemed to cap the impact of this group with such a bad roster, but the results have been ok.

Rounds 4-7 have been almost a net zero. Dante Stills is pretty much the only guy getting on the field. Again, this isn't abnormal but it is disappointing when the Cardinals have such a bad team.

 

[schutd]

Great thread. Thanks for the time.

 

[Chopper0080]

Biggest hit?

Probably Paris Johnson. It is such a key position, and became an even better pick after the Cardinals lost DJ Humphries. Garrett Williams and Michael Wilson were both in consideration, but there were a lot of more impactful players drafted around them, and later on that year.

Biggest miss?

Probably Ojulari just because of the talent drafted around where he was selected in the draft. Gaines was also in consideration because he has just been such a net zero so far, but I there didn't seem to be as many key players drafted near his spot that I would consider it a miss.

 

[Chopper0080]

In two drafts Monti has delivered the following.

WR1
WR3
TE2
LT1
CB3

out of 21 picks. 11 of those picks in the top 100. If I had to grade now, I would probably give him a C-. A lot of this is due to the roster. Only 1 defensive starter (CB3) on a defense that is 32nd is pretty damning. Also, it's not like he hit on a bunch of offensive starters instead. However, always great to grab a LT and WR.

 

[Stout]

In two drafts Monti has delivered the following.

WR1
WR3
TE2
LT1
CB3

out of 21 picks. 11 of those picks in the top 100. If I had to grade now, I would probably give him a C-. A lot of this is due to the roster. Only 1 defensive starter (CB3) on a defense that is 32nd is pretty damning. Also, it's not like he hit on a bunch of offensive starters instead. However, always great to grab a LT and WR.

And, for a guy who hung his hat on an almost complete draft approach, that is not good.

 

[az jam]

Nice work and analysis. Still early to form too many conclusions especially with this year's draft class.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nice work and analysis. Still early to form too many conclusions especially with this year's draft class.

As long as you acknowledge that snap judgements are just that, I think it is fine.

 

[Chopper0080]

This breakdown of the defense is pretty telling.

4 defensive starters are Keim players.
(Collins, Gardeck, JT and Budda)

7 defensive starters are free agents. (1 UDFA in ST5)
Nichols, Lopez, Jones, White, Wilson, SMB, ST5)

1 defensive starter was a Monti draft pick. (CB3)
Garrett Williams.

 

[Chopper0080]

And, for a guy who hung his hat on an almost complete draft approach, that is not good.

Yeah, he has to be able to hit at a higher % if this is how he primarily intends to fill out the roster.

 

[kerouac9]

2024 - 3 - Tip Raiman - TE - 42.04% of snaps in 2024.
0 targets.

There's a lot of competition for targets out there. James Conner only has seven targets on the season. Brutal.

I think the key metric for Reiman is routes run. If he's not going to go out in patterns, you're just as well off (and maybe better off) putting a third tackle or Jon Gaines or something out there. "Good blocker for a TE" is a different world than "backup offensive lineman."

2024 - 5 - Xavier Thomas - EDGE - 23.23% of snaps in 2024.
Pre-season darling. Zero pressures. Zero TFLs.

Beware the preseason hype machine. Fifth round pick; really more of a caveat emptor reminder than a concerning pick.

Williams and Wilson were both slow starters in 2023. Both have looked good in 2024. Wilson might not be a WR2, but getting a WR3 and CB3 in round 3 is good.

It's cray cray that Dortch has more targets than Wilson. SMDH.

 

[602 Native]

Top picks look good but I would still want Anderson over Johnson.

Outside of the that MO hasn't hit on much and missed on a lot of guys who were drafted after his picks.
It's year 2 of the rebuild and he is failing my opinion.

 

[Harry]

I think Williams can play outside, though maybe a two. Wilson is way overrated. The second round picks are concerning. Thirds are good. Later need work.

 

[Chopper0080]

I think Williams can play outside, though maybe a two. Wilson is way overrated. The second round picks are concerning. Thirds are good. Later need work.

Here is where I will push back a little regarding Wilson. He has not been put in a situation that plays to his strengths.

1 - He is not fast.

2 - He generates separation with his route running, not speed.

3 - He is better vs zone than man.

So, let's look at his situation. He plays in an offense with little motion pre-snap to create space and leverage. He plays mostly outside which limits his two-way go option routes. He plays with a QB that is still developing as a timing and rhythm passer.

I said above, I think he is a very good WR 3 who can be moved around and is not a liability in the run game out of 11 personnel. Asking him to be an outside WR 90% of the time and not put in motion to help him create separation just emphasizes his limitations.

 

[Chopper0080]

Top picks look good but I would still want Anderson over Johnson.

Outside of the that MO hasn't hit on much and missed on a lot of guys who were drafted after his picks.
It's year 2 of the rebuild and he is failing my opinion.

I feel he has failed more in free agency which has highlighted an average to below-average draft record so far.

 

[ajcardfan]

I feel he has failed more in free agency which has highlighted an average to below-average draft record so far.

Yes, the free agency group is worse because it was considered that these defensive players would be starters and upgrades from last year. They have not done that. The defense I think is actually maybe worse than last year so far. The only signing I think is decent is Brown.

I am most disappointed in the CB draftees group. Five players, and not one of them really looks like a long term answer.

 

[Proximo]

And, for a guy who hung his hat on an almost complete draft approach, that is not good.

It is to early to judge this years rookies.

 

[Chopper0080]

It is to early to judge this years rookies.

It is too early to judge their careers. Not too early to judge their immediate impact. If Monti is choosing to pin his hopes on hitting on draft picks vs free agents, then he better be getting guys who produce at a high level and produce quickly. If he thought he was drafting players who needed time to develop, he should have signed more vet free agents. Again, this is on him and his choices.

 

[Chopper0080]

You can't say you plan to build through the draft and then complain about known issues in that process.

Everyone knows some of these players can take time to develop if they ever do develop. Can't use that as an excuse.

Everyone knows a lot of these picks wiff. Can't use that as an excuse.

Everyone knows guys get injured. Can't use that as a excuse.

 

[MadCardDisease]

You can't say you plan to build through the draft and then complain about known issues in that process.

Everyone knows some of these players can take time to develop if they ever do develop. Can't use that as an excuse.

Everyone knows a lot of these picks wiff. Can't use that as an excuse.

Everyone knows guys get injured. Can't use that as a excuse.

Building through the draft doesn't mean you draft a player and instantly plug them in as a starter. That is not how it works.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Building through the draft doesn't mean you draft a player and instantly plug them in as a starter. That is not how it works.

I could see this argument if they were drafting guys that were barely draft eligible/projects. Monti has focused on older players with a lower ceiling who allegedly were more NFL ready. For the most part, that hasn't been the case.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Building through the draft doesn't mean you draft a player and instantly plug them in as a starter. That is not how it works.

It is when you keep drafting older “more NFL ready” college players while essentially forgo free agency for two straight seasons and don’t even come close to spending to the cap.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Because of the pandemic the average age of players in the 2024 draft was 23.2 years old. It was the oldest draft class ever I believe. This was not just a Cardinals thing.

Also a rookie is still a rookie. I don't care how old they are. There will still be an adjustment to the NFL for 99% of kids coming out of college.

 

[Chopper0080]

Building through the draft doesn't mean you draft a player and instantly plug them in as a starter. That is not how it works.

It has to work that way tho if you are choosing not to add quality/veteran talent to start until those players are ready. Monti is making that choice.

Monti chose for his starting CBs to be SMB and ST5 if his 2nd and 3rd round CBs didn't work out right away. They are both giving up over a 70% completion rate and over a 95% QB rating. Monti doesn't get a pass just like Keim didn't.

 

[MadCardDisease]

Because of the pandemic the average age of players in the 2024 draft was 23.2 years old. It was the oldest draft class ever I believe. This was not just a Cardinals thing.

I was wrong. I believe that the 2022 draft class (another COVID class) was older with an average reported age of 24.1 years old.