2024 Draft Countdown/NFL Prospects thread

[Fitz4Ever]

I was very impressed with Odunze’s Combine performance. He’s a superior weapon on WR screens. He’s great on contested catches. I‘m not crazy about Harrison’s failure to perform in post season testing. He has talent and should be a great receiver but if they go with Odunze it means they’ve traded down and get one more quality player. Since I don’t see Harrison as having a major edge over Odunze the superior option seems the trade down.

I would also be fine with Odunze in a trade down scenario, but Im worried he goes as early as 5 or 6. Talk of the Chargers needing a WR is real, and if the Giants dont trade up its possible they go WR as well.

If we could trade down to #6 and pick up an early 2nd rounder...maybe that would be fine, but I would go in with the plan of trading up from #27 to try and land another blue chip guy.

 

[akg102]

A Trade might be okay if we can get Odunze and additional picks. I just don’t see how we can gaurantee that scenario.

Barring Odunze slipping, there is only 1 scenario I can imagine for a guarantee.

Top-3 QBs go and there is a battle for McCarthy at #4.
We choose NYG and guarantee Odunze or MHJ at #6.

My GUESS is that MIN is gearing up to trade for #4 OR #5 to jump NYG. We may be stuck if the Chargers are in play, or we could have a huge cash-in. Likely the former.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

I would also be fine with Odunze in a trade down scenario, but Im worried he goes as early as 5 or 6. Talk of the Chargers needing a WR is real, and if the Giants dont trade up its possible they go WR as well.

If we could trade down to #6 and pick up an early 2nd rounder...maybe that would be fine, but I would go in with the plan of trading up from #27 to try and land another blue chip guy.

Yeah - it sounds great to trade down and get more assets, but Odzune is projected to go as high as 5 or 6, and at that point, you're not getting much of a return.

 

[kerouac9]

I feel like there's a lot of wishcasting connecting NYG to a QB. Danny Dimes has a $47 million cap number this year, the prospects likely available aren't outstanding, and Dimes can be a playoff-caliber QB.

 

[Harry]

I feel like everything Odunze does, MHJ has the physical ability to do. I don't believe the reverse is true.

In reviewing games Odunze is better at short throws like screens and dealing with early congestion. Harrison is better at slants and deeper routes. Odunze seems to enjoy contact and the physicality of the game. Harrison runs better routes and is better at avoiding contact. I give Odunze a slight edge in blocking. Considering Murray is not great at ball placement and the Cards seemed to like him better throwing short routes, I think Odunze is a better match. Harrison would be fine and make deeper catches with his superior agility. He’d be a safe choice and you can’t go wrong picking either player. I just think the likely trade down with Odunze means another useful player. Harrison will have the somewhat better career but filling two slots is hard to resist.

 

[Harry]

A Trade might be okay if we can get Odunze and additional picks. I just don’t see how we can gaurantee that scenario.

Since they’re picking 4, if they trade with the NYG it’s a pretty safe bet.

 

[kerouac9]

Cards seemed to like him better throwing short routes

I thought this was fake news, so I looked it up. Kyler was 24th of 32 in intended air yards per attempt (7.3). A full half-yard less than Derek Carr and Josh Dobbs.

A lot of this can be drag based on the quality of personnel around him, though. Trey McBride's Average Depth of Target was 6.0, Rondale Moore's was 5.2.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Barring Odunze slipping, there is only 1 scenario I can imagine for a guarantee.

Top-3 QBs go and there is a battle for McCarthy at #4.
We choose NYG and guarantee Odunze or MHJ at #6.

My GUESS is that MIN is gearing up to trade for #4 OR #5 to jump NYG. We may be stuck if the Chargers are in play, or we could have a huge cash-in. Likely the former.

This is the scenario that I like for getting Odunze. Giants offer #6, #70, and a 2025 first for #4.

In my mind, Odunze is going to be a really good WR too and if you get a few more premium picks, it's well worth it.

Imagine packaging pairing third round picks with #27 and #35 to move up for both picks to get more premium players.

 

[daves]

A Trade might be okay if we can get Odunze and additional picks. I just don’t see how we can gaurantee that scenario.

In a trade down to #6 with the Giants for a QB, the Chargers (or someone trading up with them) could take Harrison or Odunze at #5, but one of them would be guaranteed to be available at #6.

But yeah, trading down any father leaves no guarantees. Hopefully Ossenfort would have a trade back up already agreed to in advance....

 

[daves]

This is the scenario that I like for getting Odunze. Giants offer #6, #70, and a 2025 first for #4.

Wow, I know people are essentialy saying that they don't want to trade down at all unless it's for a preposterous return... but this would be a preposterous return.

Per the Draftek trade value chart, the difference between #4 and #6 is 200 points. The Giants' 3rd rounder, #70, is worth 240... already a premium that teams tend to give up for a QB. A 2025 1st is worth an additional 590 points (based on the #32 pick), which is completely unrealistic.

If we could trade down to #6 and pick up an early 2nd rounder

This is a little more realistic, but the Giants' 2nd round pick at #47 is worth 430 points - a 115% premium over the 200 points in value the Cardinals would be giving up. Maybe reasonable if the Cardinals gave back their late 3rd (140) or 4th (86).

But then as @kerouac9 noted, it's questionable whether the Giants would even want the 4th QB off the board, let alone be willing to give up a "massive haul" for a guy who might just fall to them at #6 anyway.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Wow, I know people are essentialy saying that they don't want to trade down at all unless it's for a preposterous return... but this would be a preposterous return.

Per the Draftek trade value chart, the difference between #4 and #6 is 200 points. The Giants' 3rd rounder, #70, is worth 240... already a premium that teams tend to give up for a QB. A 2025 1st is worth an additional 590 points (based on the #32 pick), which is completely unrealistic.


This is a little more realistic, but the Giants' 2nd round pick at #47 is worth 430 points - a 115% premium over the 200 points in value the Cardinals would be giving up. Maybe reasonable if the Cardinals gave back their late 3rd (140) or 4th (86).

But then as @kerouac9 noted, it's questionable whether the Giants would even want the 4th QB off the board, let alone be willing to give up a "massive haul" for a guy who might just fall to them at #6 anyway.

Dreaming is free!

 

[Krangodnzr]

Wow, I know people are essentialy saying that they don't want to trade down at all unless it's for a preposterous return... but this would be a preposterous return.

Per the Draftek trade value chart, the difference between #4 and #6 is 200 points. The Giants' 3rd rounder, #70, is worth 240... already a premium that teams tend to give up for a QB. A 2025 1st is worth an additional 590 points (based on the #32 pick), which is completely unrealistic.


This is a little more realistic, but the Giants' 2nd round pick at #47 is worth 430 points - a 115% premium over the 200 points in value the Cardinals would be giving up. Maybe reasonable if the Cardinals gave back their late 3rd (140) or 4th (86).

But then as @kerouac9 noted, it's questionable whether the Giants would even want the 4th QB off the board, let alone be willing to give up a "massive haul" for a guy who might just fall to them at #6 anyway.

This is what it would take for me to move.

That old draft value chart goes out the window for teams trading up for a QB.

 

[Krangodnzr]

And I agree with @kerouac9 that the Giants aren't really going to take a QB. They likely take one of the three WRs.

 

[Cardiac]

Wow, I know people are essentialy saying that they don't want to trade down at all unless it's for a preposterous return... but this would be a preposterous return.

Per the Draftek trade value chart, the difference between #4 and #6 is 200 points. The Giants' 3rd rounder, #70, is worth 240... already a premium that teams tend to give up for a QB. A 2025 1st is worth an additional 590 points (based on the #32 pick), which is completely unrealistic.


This is a little more realistic, but the Giants' 2nd round pick at #47 is worth 430 points - a 115% premium over the 200 points in value the Cardinals would be giving up. Maybe reasonable if the Cardinals gave back their late 3rd (140) or 4th (86).

But then as @kerouac9 noted, it's questionable whether the Giants would even want the 4th QB off the board, let alone be willing to give up a "massive haul" for a guy who might just fall to them at #6 anyway.

This is why I like the trade with the Vikings. A lot more draft capital which can be used like Monti did last year with Paris.
Trade down to 11 getting both their #1s this year and a 1 next year.

 

[kerouac9]

This is why I like the trade with the Vikings. A lot more draft capital which can be used like Monti did last year with Paris.
Trade down to 11 getting both their #1s this year and a 1 next year.

To do what? Get another pick we need to trade up from?

 

[kerouac9]

The Minnesota Vikings were 7-10 last year with Joshua Dobbs starting four games and shadow-tanking the end of the season (1-6 down the home stretch with a 1-4 record in games decided by one point or less).

If they get a legit QB prospect (not McCarthy), why would you think they'd be worse than us next year? Are we going to be bad on purpose again in 2024? Is that what you're anticipating?

 

[Stout]

This is the scenario that I like for getting Odunze. Giants offer #6, #70, and a 2025 first for #4.

In my mind, Odunze is going to be a really good WR too and if you get a few more premium picks, it's well worth it.

Imagine packaging pairing third round picks with #27 and #35 to move up for both picks to get more premium players.

I could be convinced. Still could get MHJ but guarantees either him or Odunze.

 

[Cardiac]

To do what? Get another pick we need to trade up from?

Yes. I take it that you didn't like what Monti did in the 1st rd last year.
If we trade with the Vikings and get 11,23 and first or 2nd rd pick in 2025 then you have ammo to move back up to still get Odunze.
Thing is you still get your #1 WR and now have more draft capital.
Or you get a quality edge and then take one of the many great WRs at 23.

 

[Stout]

Yes. I take it that you didn't like what Monti did in the 1st rd last year.
If we trade with the Vikings and get 11,23 and first or 2nd rd pick in 2025 then you have ammo to move back up to still get Odunze.
Thing is you still get your #1 WR and now have more draft capital.
Or you get a quality edge and then take one of the many great WRs at 23.

If everything happens to dream-like perfection, sure. The minute you pull that big trade down trigger, there is zero guarantee you can trade up again or that the guy you want will be there. You know why it probably worked last year? Because PJJ wasn't a top-10 talent.

 

[Chopper0080]

In reviewing games Odunze is better at short throws like screens and dealing with early congestion. Harrison is better at slants and deeper routes. Odunze seems to enjoy contact and the physicality of the game. Harrison runs better routes and is better at avoiding contact. I give Odunze a slight edge in blocking. Considering Murray is not great at ball placement and the Cards seemed to like him better throwing short routes, I think Odunze is a better match. Harrison would be fine and make deeper catches with his superior agility. He’d be a safe choice and you can’t go wrong picking either player. I just think the likely trade down with Odunze means another useful player. Harrison will have the somewhat better career but filling two slots is hard to resist.

My pushback would be that Kyler has struggled to complete deeper passes because the smaller stature of his pass catchers emphasizes his struggles with ball placement. When Kyler was throwing the ball downfield to Hopkins, this wasn't as much of an issue. Marv would likely mirror the success Kyler had with Hop vs the struggles he has had with Brown

 

[Chopper0080]

If everything happens to dream-like perfection, sure. The minute you pull that big trade down trigger, there is zero guarantee you can trade up again or that the guy you want will be there. You know why it probably worked last year? Because PJJ wasn't a top-10 talent.

At least he wasn't across the league.

 

[Cardiac]

If everything happens to dream-like perfection, sure. The minute you pull that big trade down trigger, there is zero guarantee you can trade up again or that the guy you want will be there. You know why it probably worked last year? Because PJJ wasn't a top-10 talent.

Or Monti had done his homework and knew the lions wanted to trade back.

 

[MadCardDisease]

I could be convinced. Still could get MHJ but guarantees either him or Odunze.

Yes that is the only scenario where I would be comfortable trading out of #4 overall. Need to still be able to land MHJr or Odunze.

 

[kerouac9]

If everything happens to dream-like perfection, sure. The minute you pull that big trade down trigger, there is zero guarantee you can trade up again or that the guy you want will be there. You know why it probably worked last year? Because PJJ wasn't a top-10 talent.

That's the point of these conversations -- much of the draft is quite pre-determined -- especially the first handful of packs. Ossenfort absolutely had these deals in place when he traded down.

 

[Fitz4Ever]

I dont think there is anyway we get #6 and a 2025 1st rounder from the Giants....which is what would make the deal enticing. I suppose they could give us #47, but it doesnt really move the needle for me, certainly not enough to move off of MHJ and possible lose out on both.

Harry you would know better than I would, but would the Giants basically give the Cards a guarantee they aren't drafting MHJ or Odunze? I know its not official, but it seems like going back on something like that could get you a lot of heat around the league and someone not to deal with in the future.

The thing that makes some of these scenarios more possible is that there seems to be a wide range of opinions on the QBs. While we are looking at it saying, "someone is taking the #4 QB"....they could very well be getting their #1 or #2 guy on their board. My own opinion is Maye, Williams, McCarthy, Daniels....and I know that is vastly different from others.