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March Madness is pure chaos, and that’s why we love it. But it’s also a goldmine for NBA Draft scouting. With the Sweet 16 tipping off, here are seven questions I’m looking to answer about some of the top prospects still dancing:
Somehow John Calipari can paint his Razorbacks as some sort of a Cinderella story following upsets over Kansas and St. John’s to reach the Sweet 16. Every team remaining is a top six seed, other than Arkansas, a 10-seed. And all eyes will be on this game, in part because the shock factor of Cal bolting from Kentucky to Arkansas still hasn’t fully worn off.
But Texas Tech has a far superior offense than what they've faced so far with two NBA Draft prospects that have a chance to hijack the spotlight. Sophomore big man JT Toppin (rank 36th) and junior forward Darrion Williams (rank 43rd) could end up first-round picks on my board down the line because of their tremendous versatility. Toppin is an excellent interior scorer who shows soft touch from outside, while Williams plays virtually every role for the Red Raiders running point one play to setting screens the next. And both of them bring comparable versatility on defense.
The Red Raiders haven’t faced much resistance on their way to this point. But now they’ll get an Arkansas team playing its best basketball of the season. If Toppin and Williams shine under the lights, their stock could soar.
We know that Queen can fill it up. He’s a polished, crafty scorer who can get buckets from the post, the midrange, or the 3-point line. And as he showed in the round of 32, he’s clutch. But his skeptics have concerns about his defense because at 6-foot-10, he isn't overly big. And he's a limited athlete that doesn't block a ton of shots. In a way, he’s a bit of a modern tweener: Not quite quick enough to defend on the perimeter full-time, and not quite big enough to be a true rim protector.
Well, here comes Florida, one of the greatest 3-point shooting teams in the nation with the second-ranked offensive rating. Their center, Aussie bruiser Alex Condon, is the type of stretch big who will drag Queen out of the paint and force him to move. Florida’s constant motion and drive-and-kick game will test Queen’s foot speed, awarenes and conditioning. He will inevitably be asked to switch on to a guard, possibly even Florida’s sharpshooter Walter Clayton Jr.
Queen passed his opening-weekend test with flying colors. But this is the exam NBA scouts have been waiting for. If he aces it, he could soon be considered a lock for the top five.
The Wildcats have a 20-year-old center coming off their bench that has first-round potential. His name is Henri Veesaar. He’s a 7-footer from Estonia who plays a limited role for Arizona. That’s why eyebrows were raised this week when a reporter asked Tommy Lloyd if he was “hiding” Veesaar from NBA teams.
“That's insulting. Who are these NBA people? I've never seen them. Are these, like, sources?” Lloyd responded. “A lot of people have answers to tests they've never passed. I'm a coach. I'm coaching my team. Anybody that thinks I'm holding a kid back is crazy. But you know what? On a team, you have other players. You have other scenarios, and there's this thing called fouls, there's this thing called fatigue. You don't get to coach a team in a vacuum.”
Lloyd is implying that Veesaar has flaws that prevent him from playing more, and he’s absolutely correct. He’s still not that strong, so he gets pushed around. He fouls too much, with 2.7 per game in only 20.6 minutes. But he’s also insanely talented as an agile 7-footer, a solid shooter, and a constant lob threat.
Veesaar dropped 19 points in a big game against Baylor earlier in the season, then had 19 points in a conference tournament game against Kansas. He's capable of big performances. And to beat Duke’s massive, long frontcourt with Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, you’d think that the Wildcats will need Veesaar to play heavier minutes if they’re gonna have any chance of advancing.
Lloyd isn’t “hiding” Veesaar per se, but more questions will be asked if he doesn’t let him loose in the biggest game of the season.
Flagg had a dominant season, which is why he’s the consensus top-ranked prospect. But he also had two negative viral moments with slips on the floor leading to costly turnovers in Duke losses.
One happened way back in November against Kentucky, and then another last month against Clemson. In both instances, Duke trailed by two in the closing moments of the game. It looked like the floor was slippery on both occasions, but I hope we see the Blue Devils in another tightly contested game this weekend. And I hope the ball is in Flagg’s hands once again to give him a chance for redemption.
Wolf isn’t the biggest name nationally, but he could be soon as a 7-foot highlight generator. He runs point for Michigan, and has made some of the slickest passes of the entire college basketball season. And he’s capable of hitting ridiculous step-back 3-pointers.
I’m not sold on Wolf as an NBA prospect. He commits too many turnovers and his shooting numbers aren’t great (33% from 3, 60.3% from the line). But he’s undeniably fun and weird as hell. And Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup against Auburn is exactly the type of matchup that could show he’s got as much substance as he does style if he’s able to succeed against Auburn center Johni Broome and their stacked roster.
BYU will have its hands full trying to contain Alabama’s explosive backcourt, which features two NBA prospects in freshman Labaron Philon (rank 31st) and super senior Mark Sears (rank 58th). Alabama ranks second in the nation in offensive efficiency, and their guards are relentless. Both of them need to excel to raise their draft stocks, especially Sears as an undersized guard in his final college season.
Meanwhile, BYU had the 72nd-ranked defense this season, per KenPom. So all eyes will be on Egor Demin, who ranks 17th on my board. He’s BYU’s 6-foot-9 point guard who has undeniable playmaking wizardry, but has a streaky shot and questions about his defense. Containing an experienced, grizzled guard like Sears on a switch, and locking down a freshman in Philon, would help his case as a lottery prospect.
Because the reality is that concerns about Demin’s jumper won’t go away even if he continues his hot streak. But teams would feel increasingly confident in his floor as a player if he proves that he can stop great offensive talents. And if he struggles, it will only fuel the argument that Demin might be better off returning to school, especially with AJ Dybantsa arriving next year.
Richardson had zero points until the final two minutes of Michigan State’s victory over New Mexico. Then he deflected a pass, which led to a 3-point attempt in which he got fouled and then sank every free throw. The next play, his teammate missed a shot and he came flying in for a putback and-one layup:
It was a stinker offensively for Richardson, but he showed his ability to fight through adversity once again by coming through late in the game despite a poor performance. Michigan State can’t handle that again moving forward in the tournament though. They struggle to shoot 3s. Richardson is the only player who can consistently make them, which is why as a freshman his minutes and responsibility have skyrocketed over the final month of the season.
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1. Can Texas Tech steal the spotlight from Coach Cal?
Somehow John Calipari can paint his Razorbacks as some sort of a Cinderella story following upsets over Kansas and St. John’s to reach the Sweet 16. Every team remaining is a top six seed, other than Arkansas, a 10-seed. And all eyes will be on this game, in part because the shock factor of Cal bolting from Kentucky to Arkansas still hasn’t fully worn off.
But Texas Tech has a far superior offense than what they've faced so far with two NBA Draft prospects that have a chance to hijack the spotlight. Sophomore big man JT Toppin (rank 36th) and junior forward Darrion Williams (rank 43rd) could end up first-round picks on my board down the line because of their tremendous versatility. Toppin is an excellent interior scorer who shows soft touch from outside, while Williams plays virtually every role for the Red Raiders running point one play to setting screens the next. And both of them bring comparable versatility on defense.
The Red Raiders haven’t faced much resistance on their way to this point. But now they’ll get an Arkansas team playing its best basketball of the season. If Toppin and Williams shine under the lights, their stock could soar.
2. Does Derik Queen pass his toughest test of the season?
We know that Queen can fill it up. He’s a polished, crafty scorer who can get buckets from the post, the midrange, or the 3-point line. And as he showed in the round of 32, he’s clutch. But his skeptics have concerns about his defense because at 6-foot-10, he isn't overly big. And he's a limited athlete that doesn't block a ton of shots. In a way, he’s a bit of a modern tweener: Not quite quick enough to defend on the perimeter full-time, and not quite big enough to be a true rim protector.
Well, here comes Florida, one of the greatest 3-point shooting teams in the nation with the second-ranked offensive rating. Their center, Aussie bruiser Alex Condon, is the type of stretch big who will drag Queen out of the paint and force him to move. Florida’s constant motion and drive-and-kick game will test Queen’s foot speed, awarenes and conditioning. He will inevitably be asked to switch on to a guard, possibly even Florida’s sharpshooter Walter Clayton Jr.
Queen passed his opening-weekend test with flying colors. But this is the exam NBA scouts have been waiting for. If he aces it, he could soon be considered a lock for the top five.
3. Will Arizona unleash their 7-foot monster?
The Wildcats have a 20-year-old center coming off their bench that has first-round potential. His name is Henri Veesaar. He’s a 7-footer from Estonia who plays a limited role for Arizona. That’s why eyebrows were raised this week when a reporter asked Tommy Lloyd if he was “hiding” Veesaar from NBA teams.
“That's insulting. Who are these NBA people? I've never seen them. Are these, like, sources?” Lloyd responded. “A lot of people have answers to tests they've never passed. I'm a coach. I'm coaching my team. Anybody that thinks I'm holding a kid back is crazy. But you know what? On a team, you have other players. You have other scenarios, and there's this thing called fouls, there's this thing called fatigue. You don't get to coach a team in a vacuum.”
Lloyd is implying that Veesaar has flaws that prevent him from playing more, and he’s absolutely correct. He’s still not that strong, so he gets pushed around. He fouls too much, with 2.7 per game in only 20.6 minutes. But he’s also insanely talented as an agile 7-footer, a solid shooter, and a constant lob threat.
Veesaar dropped 19 points in a big game against Baylor earlier in the season, then had 19 points in a conference tournament game against Kansas. He's capable of big performances. And to beat Duke’s massive, long frontcourt with Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach, you’d think that the Wildcats will need Veesaar to play heavier minutes if they’re gonna have any chance of advancing.
Lloyd isn’t “hiding” Veesaar per se, but more questions will be asked if he doesn’t let him loose in the biggest game of the season.
4. Will there come a clutch moment for Cooper Flagg?
Flagg had a dominant season, which is why he’s the consensus top-ranked prospect. But he also had two negative viral moments with slips on the floor leading to costly turnovers in Duke losses.
One happened way back in November against Kentucky, and then another last month against Clemson. In both instances, Duke trailed by two in the closing moments of the game. It looked like the floor was slippery on both occasions, but I hope we see the Blue Devils in another tightly contested game this weekend. And I hope the ball is in Flagg’s hands once again to give him a chance for redemption.
5. Will Danny Wolf be more style or substance vs. Auburn?
Wolf isn’t the biggest name nationally, but he could be soon as a 7-foot highlight generator. He runs point for Michigan, and has made some of the slickest passes of the entire college basketball season. And he’s capable of hitting ridiculous step-back 3-pointers.
I’m not sold on Wolf as an NBA prospect. He commits too many turnovers and his shooting numbers aren’t great (33% from 3, 60.3% from the line). But he’s undeniably fun and weird as hell. And Michigan’s Sweet 16 matchup against Auburn is exactly the type of matchup that could show he’s got as much substance as he does style if he’s able to succeed against Auburn center Johni Broome and their stacked roster.
6. Who wins the battle between the Alabama and BYU guards?
BYU will have its hands full trying to contain Alabama’s explosive backcourt, which features two NBA prospects in freshman Labaron Philon (rank 31st) and super senior Mark Sears (rank 58th). Alabama ranks second in the nation in offensive efficiency, and their guards are relentless. Both of them need to excel to raise their draft stocks, especially Sears as an undersized guard in his final college season.
Meanwhile, BYU had the 72nd-ranked defense this season, per KenPom. So all eyes will be on Egor Demin, who ranks 17th on my board. He’s BYU’s 6-foot-9 point guard who has undeniable playmaking wizardry, but has a streaky shot and questions about his defense. Containing an experienced, grizzled guard like Sears on a switch, and locking down a freshman in Philon, would help his case as a lottery prospect.
Because the reality is that concerns about Demin’s jumper won’t go away even if he continues his hot streak. But teams would feel increasingly confident in his floor as a player if he proves that he can stop great offensive talents. And if he struggles, it will only fuel the argument that Demin might be better off returning to school, especially with AJ Dybantsa arriving next year.
7. Does Jase Richardson get back on track vs. Ole Miss?
Richardson had zero points until the final two minutes of Michigan State’s victory over New Mexico. Then he deflected a pass, which led to a 3-point attempt in which he got fouled and then sank every free throw. The next play, his teammate missed a shot and he came flying in for a putback and-one layup:
It was a stinker offensively for Richardson, but he showed his ability to fight through adversity once again by coming through late in the game despite a poor performance. Michigan State can’t handle that again moving forward in the tournament though. They struggle to shoot 3s. Richardson is the only player who can consistently make them, which is why as a freshman his minutes and responsibility have skyrocketed over the final month of the season.
Continue reading...
