- Joined
- May 8, 2002
- Posts
- 429,784
- Reaction score
- 44
The 2025 NFL Draft is exactly like the dozens that preceded it; a network of educated guesses as to which college stars will be able to transition to the speed, physicality and extended mental strain of the pro game.
Each year, can't-miss players fall short of expectations. Undrafted free agents develop into starters and stars. Even as data science improves, there's no foolproof formula to help teams and executives know who'll exceed their potential and who won't even scrape its surface.
LATEST NFL MOCK DRAFT:Saints trade up for Shedeur Sanders, Giants find their QB.
But we have learned a few lessons along the way. For five NFL franchises, we've got enough recent data to understand how not to torture their fans and wind up back at the top of the draft order again in 2026. So what do the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and others have to get right this spring in hopes of stopping recent spirals?
The Giants have the third overall pick. The Jets are seventh. Each is looking for a long-term quarterback solution and Shedeur Sanders may be a viable option for each.
But both teams have several other holes to fill besides quarterback. And they’ve got stopgap options to get them through 2025, whether that’s Justin Fields or a genuinely weird Russell Wilson/Jameis Winston combination. In a draft that may have only one consensus top-seven pick at quarterback, each of these teams could be tossing good draft assets after a bad fit.
This isn’t shade on Sanders, who is a big play machine. This is concern over two uneven blocking situations, a player who tends to hold the ball too long and two offenses well versed in the devastating effect of negative plays. Sanders is a gamble. Neither New York team has the house money to handle the fallout if he fails.
This works at least somewhat in concert with No. 1. The Saints may be tempted to jump the line and slide in front of the Jets from their place with the ninth overall pick. Rumors of a hungry team trading up to target Shedeur Sanders could force general manager Mickey Loomis to sell off draft assets in order to place a heavy bet on a first round talent.
That’s the kind of thinking that has landed New Orleans in a swamp of its own design. A perpetual place in salary cap hell has made it vital to find low-cost starters on rookie contracts. But in 2022 Loomis had only three picks before round five. In 2024, it was two selections in the first four rounds. That put massive stress on the Saints’ selections before even robbing the team of mid-draft picks who could have been penciled in as contributors from rounds three and four.
No team in the league has a worse salary cap situation for 2026 than New Orleans — and this is a league where the Cleveland Browns are paying off the balance of $230 million guaranteed for Deshaun Watson, who was accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct dating back to his time as a Houston Texan and the NFL’s 38th-best quarterback in his time as a Brown. The Saints have four picks in the top 93 selections. They need to hold on to those — or potentially even trade back to create more potential bargain starters — more than they need the second-best quarterback in a draft light on passing talent.
2025 NFL DRAFT:Every team's biggest needs, from the Titans to the Eagles.
N’Keal Harry was big and had a solid catch radius, but couldn’t separate from NFL cornerbacks. Tyquan Thornton had blazing straight line speed but a limited route tree and a myriad of problems that stemmed from that. Ja’Lynn Polk had strong contested catch abilities but wasn’t even the best wideout on his own roster. His rookie debut provided plenty of evidence *why* he had to make so many contested catches and was one of the NFL’s least efficient players.
These are the hallmarks of the wideout drafting failures that closed out Bill Belichick’s reign in Foxborough but continue to haunt the halls of Patriot Place. Signing Stefon Diggs pulled some of the focus away from the team’s rookie class, but he’s a stopgap solution. He’ll help Drake Maye, though the level of aid is a bit murky since he’s 31 years old and coming off a torn ACL.
New England needs someone to give Maye support behind an aging Diggs and the combo of Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. But its place with the fourth and 38th picks means the team could miss out on the upper crust of wideout prospects that ranges from Tetairoa McMillan to Emeka Egbuka (or Luther Burden, depending on how you feel about this year’s receivers).
Would the Patriots over-reach for a talented-but-flawed Plan B like Jayden Higgins (big with strong hands but lacks the physicality to consistently beat press coverage), Jaylin Noel (speedy but on the small size who may never translate college production to the pros) or Tre Harris (physical and smooth but lacking the explosiveness that could consistently free him against NFL coverage)? Or would new head coach Mike Vrabel preach patience and wait for the right fit to fall into his lap?
The Cowboys need extra beef in their front four, even after re-signing Osa Odighizuwa to a four-year contract extension. Mazi Smith has yet to pan out — and his struggles should be the exact warning sign Jerry Jones brings with him to a 2025 NFL Draft loaded with defensive tackle talent.
This probably won’t be an issue in the first round. Dallas has the 12th overall pick, which is well after Mason Graham will be off the board and before we’re likely to see other lane-clogging, quarterback-rushing tackles like Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon or Walter Nolen selected. But you can’t discount a trade back — it makes sense given the Cowboys needs! — and a potential reach to fortify the trenches. But with so much value at the position — we could see upwards of 15 tackles selected in the first three rounds alone — it doesn’t make sense for Dallas to focus here early given its needs at wideout, running back and across the secondary.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 3 NFL Draft traps teams (including the Cowboys) can’t fall into in 2025
Continue reading...
Each year, can't-miss players fall short of expectations. Undrafted free agents develop into starters and stars. Even as data science improves, there's no foolproof formula to help teams and executives know who'll exceed their potential and who won't even scrape its surface.
LATEST NFL MOCK DRAFT:Saints trade up for Shedeur Sanders, Giants find their QB.
But we have learned a few lessons along the way. For five NFL franchises, we've got enough recent data to understand how not to torture their fans and wind up back at the top of the draft order again in 2026. So what do the New York Jets, Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots and others have to get right this spring in hopes of stopping recent spirals?
1. The New York teams shouldn’t reach for a quarterback
The Giants have the third overall pick. The Jets are seventh. Each is looking for a long-term quarterback solution and Shedeur Sanders may be a viable option for each.
But both teams have several other holes to fill besides quarterback. And they’ve got stopgap options to get them through 2025, whether that’s Justin Fields or a genuinely weird Russell Wilson/Jameis Winston combination. In a draft that may have only one consensus top-seven pick at quarterback, each of these teams could be tossing good draft assets after a bad fit.
This isn’t shade on Sanders, who is a big play machine. This is concern over two uneven blocking situations, a player who tends to hold the ball too long and two offenses well versed in the devastating effect of negative plays. Sanders is a gamble. Neither New York team has the house money to handle the fallout if he fails.
2. The New Orleans Saints can’t afford to ship away picks for a trade up
This works at least somewhat in concert with No. 1. The Saints may be tempted to jump the line and slide in front of the Jets from their place with the ninth overall pick. Rumors of a hungry team trading up to target Shedeur Sanders could force general manager Mickey Loomis to sell off draft assets in order to place a heavy bet on a first round talent.
That’s the kind of thinking that has landed New Orleans in a swamp of its own design. A perpetual place in salary cap hell has made it vital to find low-cost starters on rookie contracts. But in 2022 Loomis had only three picks before round five. In 2024, it was two selections in the first four rounds. That put massive stress on the Saints’ selections before even robbing the team of mid-draft picks who could have been penciled in as contributors from rounds three and four.
No team in the league has a worse salary cap situation for 2026 than New Orleans — and this is a league where the Cleveland Browns are paying off the balance of $230 million guaranteed for Deshaun Watson, who was accused of more than 20 counts of sexual misconduct dating back to his time as a Houston Texan and the NFL’s 38th-best quarterback in his time as a Brown. The Saints have four picks in the top 93 selections. They need to hold on to those — or potentially even trade back to create more potential bargain starters — more than they need the second-best quarterback in a draft light on passing talent.
2025 NFL DRAFT:Every team's biggest needs, from the Titans to the Eagles.
3. The New England Patriots can’t take a wideout with only one above-average NFL trait
N’Keal Harry was big and had a solid catch radius, but couldn’t separate from NFL cornerbacks. Tyquan Thornton had blazing straight line speed but a limited route tree and a myriad of problems that stemmed from that. Ja’Lynn Polk had strong contested catch abilities but wasn’t even the best wideout on his own roster. His rookie debut provided plenty of evidence *why* he had to make so many contested catches and was one of the NFL’s least efficient players.
These are the hallmarks of the wideout drafting failures that closed out Bill Belichick’s reign in Foxborough but continue to haunt the halls of Patriot Place. Signing Stefon Diggs pulled some of the focus away from the team’s rookie class, but he’s a stopgap solution. He’ll help Drake Maye, though the level of aid is a bit murky since he’s 31 years old and coming off a torn ACL.
New England needs someone to give Maye support behind an aging Diggs and the combo of Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte. But its place with the fourth and 38th picks means the team could miss out on the upper crust of wideout prospects that ranges from Tetairoa McMillan to Emeka Egbuka (or Luther Burden, depending on how you feel about this year’s receivers).
Would the Patriots over-reach for a talented-but-flawed Plan B like Jayden Higgins (big with strong hands but lacks the physicality to consistently beat press coverage), Jaylin Noel (speedy but on the small size who may never translate college production to the pros) or Tre Harris (physical and smooth but lacking the explosiveness that could consistently free him against NFL coverage)? Or would new head coach Mike Vrabel preach patience and wait for the right fit to fall into his lap?
Bonus! The Dallas Cowboys don’t need a first round defensive tackle
The Cowboys need extra beef in their front four, even after re-signing Osa Odighizuwa to a four-year contract extension. Mazi Smith has yet to pan out — and his struggles should be the exact warning sign Jerry Jones brings with him to a 2025 NFL Draft loaded with defensive tackle talent.
This probably won’t be an issue in the first round. Dallas has the 12th overall pick, which is well after Mason Graham will be off the board and before we’re likely to see other lane-clogging, quarterback-rushing tackles like Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon or Walter Nolen selected. But you can’t discount a trade back — it makes sense given the Cowboys needs! — and a potential reach to fortify the trenches. But with so much value at the position — we could see upwards of 15 tackles selected in the first three rounds alone — it doesn’t make sense for Dallas to focus here early given its needs at wideout, running back and across the secondary.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 3 NFL Draft traps teams (including the Cowboys) can’t fall into in 2025
Continue reading...
