3-Way Tie favors Cards

[Cbus cardsfan]

too bad the Cardinals didn't finish off Minny and take care of business at home against Seattle. This discussion would never be happening. It's still been a very good year either way. I was one of the people thinking 3-5 wins.

 

[ajcardfan]

I may be missing something but if we win out, the Rams can't win the division can they?

if we win out we're 10-7 and the best the Rams can be is 10-7. But we would have beaten, them twice. If the Rams finish 10-7 and we win out it means the Rams beat Seattle so Seattle has at least 3 division losses so it can't be a 3 way tie.

We CAN win out and not win the division because Seattle either finishes 10-7 and wins head to head tiebreaker, or Seattle wins out and finishes 11-6,

We control our destiny for the division.

 

[TheCardinal]

We control our destiny for the division.

No, we don’t control our own destiny for the division. If we win out, we still need help:

Either the Seahawks lose any two ganes

OR

The Seahawks lose to the Rams AND the Rams beat the Jets.

 

[ajcardfan]

No, we don’t control our own destiny for the division. If we win out, we still need help:

Either the Seahawks lose any two ganes

OR

The Seahawks lose to the Rams AND the Rams beat the Jets.

Thank you. Of course the Seahawks have to lose.

 

[TheCardinal]

I may be missing something but if we win out, the Rams can't win the division can they?

if we win out we're 10-7 and the best the Rams can be is 10-7. But we would have beaten, them twice. If the Rams finish 10-7 and we win out it means the Rams beat Seattle so Seattle has at least 3 division losses so it can't be a 3 way tie.

We CAN win out and not win the division because Seattle either finishes 10-7 and wins head to head tiebreaker, or Seattle wins out and finishes 11-6,

You are correct in that should we win out, the Rams CANNOT win the West. Since we might still need their help to beat the Seahawks in the finale, it is important that the NFL doesn’t move their game to Sunday night since should we have gotten to 10-7 earlier in the day, the Rams might have no incentive to try against the Seahawks.

The three-way tie at 10-7 is still in play. We win out, the Seahawks lose only to the Rams (it’s fine if they lose more), and the Rams beat the Jets and Seahawks. Even though the Rams would be shut out of the division, if the Seahawks get to 10 wins by beating the Vikings and Bears, it is imperative that the Rams also win EXACTLY 10 games to bail us out. Seattle would have the worst division record at 3-3 which is what kills them in the tie-breaker. Overall record always comes first, the other stuff like H2H and divisional record only applies if teams have the same overall record.

 

[phillycard]

Me neither. Gannon has his warts but his team almost always comes out playing hard and has been particularly good at handling teams that are worse than them.

Cheese, if I'M reading it right, @ajcardfan is saying that we could just straight up get beat, and not because we took the Panthers lightly. Maybe I'm wrong, but I tend to agree with your take on it. AJ am I right?

 

[ajcardfan]

Cheese, if I'M reading it right, @ajcardfan is saying that we could just straight up get beat, and not because we took the Panthers lightly. Maybe I'm wrong, but I tend to agree with your take on it. AJ am I right?

Yes, that is what I meant and I think cheese did too.

 

[phillycard]

No, we don’t control our own destiny for the division. If we win out, we still need help:

Either the Seahawks lose any two ganes

OR

The Seahawks lose to the Rams AND the Rams beat the Jets.

So we need to pull for the Rams this Sunday?

 

[TheCardinal]

So we need to pull for the Rams this Sunday?

It depends.

If we lose our game, then we need the Rams to LOSE, otherwise we are eliminated (ignoring ties for now).

If we win our game, then it is *probably* better for the Rams to WIN. The rationale is a bit convoluted, see below and decide for yourself.

Both games are played at the same time, so there will be some uncertainty.


If Rams WIN against Jets:
- PROS: makes our path to the division at 10-7 much easier. The only other help we would need would be a SEA loss to LA (or losses by SEA in their other two games).
- CONS: forces us to go 10-7. No path to the playoffs at 9-8.

If Rams LOSE to Jets:
- PROS: keeps us alive should we lose to CRL or SF. If we go 9-8, we would need SEA to lose to the Rams and one other game (if our loss is to CRL) or all three games (if our loss is to SF).
- CONS: makes our path to the division at 10-7 more difficult (no three-way tie possible to save us). Would need SEA to lose any two games (and if they beat MIN, our playoff survival would depend on the Bears beating them the following week).

A Rams-Jets TIE is really bad in most scenarios.

 

[WisconsinCard]

It depends.

If we lose our game, then we need the Rams to LOSE, otherwise we are eliminated (ignoring ties for now).

If we win our game, then it is *probably* better for the Rams to WIN. The rationale is a bit convoluted, see below and decide for yourself.

Both games are played at the same time, so there will be some uncertainty.


If Rams WIN against Jets:
- PROS: makes our path to the division at 10-7 much easier. The only other help we would need would be a SEA loss to LA (or losses by SEA in their other two games).
- CONS: forces us to go 10-7. No path to the playoffs at 9-8.

If Rams LOSE to Jets:
- PROS: keeps us alive should we lose to CRL or SF. If we go 9-8, we would need SEA to lose to the Rams and one other game (if our loss is to CRL) or all three games (if our loss is to SF).
- CONS: makes our path to the division at 10-7 more difficult (no three-way tie possible to save us). Would need SEA to lose any two games (and if they beat MIN, our playoff survival would depend on the Bears beating them the following week).

A Rams-Jets TIE is really bad in most scenarios.

If we lose to Carolina we'll then do we really deserve to be in the hunt? This is a game we cannot lose and be taken as a serious playoff contender. It's do or due time. IMO