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Or more accurately titled, “why the Diamondbacks probably won’t re-sign Hudson.”
Sorry to make this so lengthy, I hope at least one person finds it useful or interesting.
Given the recent speculation over Orlando Hudson’s immanent free agent status as well the money potentially coming off the team’s books, now is probably a decent time to take a look at what kind of money the Diamondbacks are currently committed to as well as the ones that they could be in the near future. First off is some good news. We can reasonably deduce that Arizona will have the financial means to re-sign several key players over the next few years. The bad news is that Hudson probably won’t be one of them.
At least one big contract is finally off the team’s hands this winter. I suspect that several people are going to want to shoot me for even mentioning this name, but Russ Ortiz and his $8.5M salary in 2008 will be officially gone forever. As has been mentioned before, Randy Johnson is also out of a contract beginning once we reach November. However, due to the deferred money involved, that situation is significantly more convoluted. As far as can be discerned, he will be owed at least $4M in both 2009 and 2010 whether he is pitching for the Diamondbacks or not as part of his signing bonus given when he was traded back to Arizona. That is not the only deferred money he is due to receive, but it seems that it is the Yankees who are paying him that money owed for 2005 and 2006. However, he was also at one time owed at least $6M per year for the years 1999-2004, and it isn’t publicly known how much of that the Diamondbacks have already paid. Of course, Johnson could potentially even re-sign for one more year with Arizona (say what you will about his age, but he is still a capable fifth starter and even fifth starters are ridiculously expensive to replace if done so externally), but its safe to say if that does occur it won’t be for anything close to the $10M (salary only) he is currently making.
On that subject, Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez (as well as several others) both also at one time was owed deferred money, but details on how much (if any) is still due are not available as far as I have been able to find. Schilling was owed $5M per year for 2002 and 2003, but some of that might have been transferred to the Red Sox when they negotiated his extension in late 2003. A few years ago, the East Valley Tribune ran a rather candid interview with Ken Kendrick regarding the financial plan going forward for the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, I have not been able to dig up this interview again, but from what I can remember, the idea was to slowly increase the payroll by about $5M per season (which they have been, in fact the payroll increased by about $12M from last season) while paying out the deferred contracts as quickly as possible. That way, the deferred money would be done away with right in time to extend those youngsters who have earned raises.
As I said in the opener, due to expiring costs in both current contracts and money owed, the Diamondbacks have the flexibility to re-sign their core players. With the money committed currently, Arizona would not have a problem with paying Hudson for 2009, the concern lies elsewhere. That is to say, one issue looms large – both Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are scheduled to become UFAs after the 2010 season (strictly speaking, 2010 for both is a club option, but barring catastrophic injury those will obviously be picked up). The framework for possible Webb/Haren extensions has almost undoubtedly been set by the extension signed by Jake Peavy last December. Peavy’s new contract is worth a total of $48M over 2010-2012 with a $22M club option in 2013. If both are given similar contracts, then roughly $30M will be tied up between two players in 2011. In other words, if Hudson wants to stay, a two or maybe three year contract is probably the best he can hope for here, especially if he is looking for eight figures a year. Plus, some other team would probably be willing to give him at least four years on the open market. A bright spot in this is that Eric Byrnes and his $11M (2010 salary) will be over just in time for the possible Webb/Haren extensions to kick in. It should be noted that Doug Davis is also reaching UFA status at the end of 2009.
On other fronts, Lyon and Cruz are potential UFAs at the end of this season. Given the recent bullpen performance, that could be disaster. Also, Chris Snyder and Conor Jackson are RFAs at the end of this season (among a handful of others), with Jackson set to receive a nice boost in pay.
Major Salary Commitments for 2009 (does not include those with deferred money):
Eric Byrnes ($11M)
Doug Davis ($8.75M)
Brandon Webb ($6.5M)
Dan Haren ($5.5M)
Chad Tracy ($4.75M)
Chris Young ($1.75M)
Stephen Drew ($1.5M)
Justin Upton ($1.3M)
Max Scherzer ($1-1.5M)
That is a total of $42M for those nine players. The team is currently spending about $66M total this year, which should rise some for 2009.
RFAs: Jackson, Snyder, Qualls, Ojeda, Burke
UFAs: Johnson, Lyon, Cruz, Clark, Hudson
On cheap rookie contracts: Reynolds, Owings, Slaten, Romero, Montero, various relievers
*an edit will probably be coming, I might have missed a detail or two
Sorry to make this so lengthy, I hope at least one person finds it useful or interesting.
Given the recent speculation over Orlando Hudson’s immanent free agent status as well the money potentially coming off the team’s books, now is probably a decent time to take a look at what kind of money the Diamondbacks are currently committed to as well as the ones that they could be in the near future. First off is some good news. We can reasonably deduce that Arizona will have the financial means to re-sign several key players over the next few years. The bad news is that Hudson probably won’t be one of them.
At least one big contract is finally off the team’s hands this winter. I suspect that several people are going to want to shoot me for even mentioning this name, but Russ Ortiz and his $8.5M salary in 2008 will be officially gone forever. As has been mentioned before, Randy Johnson is also out of a contract beginning once we reach November. However, due to the deferred money involved, that situation is significantly more convoluted. As far as can be discerned, he will be owed at least $4M in both 2009 and 2010 whether he is pitching for the Diamondbacks or not as part of his signing bonus given when he was traded back to Arizona. That is not the only deferred money he is due to receive, but it seems that it is the Yankees who are paying him that money owed for 2005 and 2006. However, he was also at one time owed at least $6M per year for the years 1999-2004, and it isn’t publicly known how much of that the Diamondbacks have already paid. Of course, Johnson could potentially even re-sign for one more year with Arizona (say what you will about his age, but he is still a capable fifth starter and even fifth starters are ridiculously expensive to replace if done so externally), but its safe to say if that does occur it won’t be for anything close to the $10M (salary only) he is currently making.
On that subject, Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez (as well as several others) both also at one time was owed deferred money, but details on how much (if any) is still due are not available as far as I have been able to find. Schilling was owed $5M per year for 2002 and 2003, but some of that might have been transferred to the Red Sox when they negotiated his extension in late 2003. A few years ago, the East Valley Tribune ran a rather candid interview with Ken Kendrick regarding the financial plan going forward for the Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, I have not been able to dig up this interview again, but from what I can remember, the idea was to slowly increase the payroll by about $5M per season (which they have been, in fact the payroll increased by about $12M from last season) while paying out the deferred contracts as quickly as possible. That way, the deferred money would be done away with right in time to extend those youngsters who have earned raises.
As I said in the opener, due to expiring costs in both current contracts and money owed, the Diamondbacks have the flexibility to re-sign their core players. With the money committed currently, Arizona would not have a problem with paying Hudson for 2009, the concern lies elsewhere. That is to say, one issue looms large – both Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are scheduled to become UFAs after the 2010 season (strictly speaking, 2010 for both is a club option, but barring catastrophic injury those will obviously be picked up). The framework for possible Webb/Haren extensions has almost undoubtedly been set by the extension signed by Jake Peavy last December. Peavy’s new contract is worth a total of $48M over 2010-2012 with a $22M club option in 2013. If both are given similar contracts, then roughly $30M will be tied up between two players in 2011. In other words, if Hudson wants to stay, a two or maybe three year contract is probably the best he can hope for here, especially if he is looking for eight figures a year. Plus, some other team would probably be willing to give him at least four years on the open market. A bright spot in this is that Eric Byrnes and his $11M (2010 salary) will be over just in time for the possible Webb/Haren extensions to kick in. It should be noted that Doug Davis is also reaching UFA status at the end of 2009.
On other fronts, Lyon and Cruz are potential UFAs at the end of this season. Given the recent bullpen performance, that could be disaster. Also, Chris Snyder and Conor Jackson are RFAs at the end of this season (among a handful of others), with Jackson set to receive a nice boost in pay.
Major Salary Commitments for 2009 (does not include those with deferred money):
Eric Byrnes ($11M)
Doug Davis ($8.75M)
Brandon Webb ($6.5M)
Dan Haren ($5.5M)
Chad Tracy ($4.75M)
Chris Young ($1.75M)
Stephen Drew ($1.5M)
Justin Upton ($1.3M)
Max Scherzer ($1-1.5M)
That is a total of $42M for those nine players. The team is currently spending about $66M total this year, which should rise some for 2009.
RFAs: Jackson, Snyder, Qualls, Ojeda, Burke
UFAs: Johnson, Lyon, Cruz, Clark, Hudson
On cheap rookie contracts: Reynolds, Owings, Slaten, Romero, Montero, various relievers
*an edit will probably be coming, I might have missed a detail or two
