A Tectonic Shift In Movie Biz...

[Cheesebeef]

WB just announced that it’s ENTIRE 2021 Movie slate will now drop on HBOMAX on the same day and release date all of their movies will debut in theaters.

Zero upcharge per movie. This isn’t like Mulan. You have the service, the movies come with it.

https://deadline.com/2020/12/warner...-max-matrix-4-dune-in-the-heights-1234649760/

wow.

WOW.

 

[jf-08]

 

[Cheesebeef]

The move toward the end of movie theaters has been consistent, if not slow as molasses moving for a bit, but the pandemic has stepped on the fast forward button something fierce.

 

[BigRedRage]

I'm not sure the benefit of dropping it on HBO unless HBO is paying massive amounts for this but I do see the benefit of making movies available right away for less money in a direct to consumer model. I can see that bringing in more money than a theater only release. It really takes a lot to get me to go to the theater. Movies like the new terminator movie that came out or a blockbuster release to take my youngest to like Aladding make a lot of sense for me. A lot of the smaller stuff, even the ones I do want to see, I dont have much incentive to go to the movies vs just waiting for it to hit netflix. However, if a new harold and humar dropped or whatever example we want, maybe I'm home that night and like hey why not, I'll spend 4.99 to watch it now and you can get more money from me.

Then, when terminator 17 comes out and I decide I want the theater experience, charge me more, I am coming and paying for a premium event and I am willing to pay for the premium event when I make this decision.

It will lead to a lot less movie theaters but it is a better solution than movie theaters disappearing overall.

 

[Dr. Jones]

As long as the theaters that are left become absolute video and audio PALACES...... I'm ok with this.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I'm not sure the benefit of dropping it on HBO unless HBO is paying massive amounts for this but I do see the benefit of making movies available right away for less money in a direct to consumer model. I can see that bringing in more money than a theater only release. It really takes a lot to get me to go to the theater. Movies like the new terminator movie that came out or a blockbuster release to take my youngest to like Aladding make a lot of sense for me. A lot of the smaller stuff, even the ones I do want to see, I dont have much incentive to go to the movies vs just waiting for it to hit netflix. However, if a new harold and humar dropped or whatever example we want, maybe I'm home that night and like hey why not, I'll spend 4.99 to watch it now and you can get more money from me.

Then, when terminator 17 comes out and I decide I want the theater experience, charge me more, I am coming and paying for a premium event and I am willing to pay for the premium event when I make this decision.

It will lead to a lot less movie theaters but it is a better solution than movie theaters disappearing overall.

WB is HBO’s parent company. This will drive a TON of subscribers to their new subscription service HBOMAX.

and I think your scenario above is likely. The only movies in remaining theaters will be MASSIVE blockbusters (Marvel, DCEU, Star Wars, Avatar, etc) and the charge will definitely be a premium compared to now.

This has been coming for a while. The pandemic just sped up the timeline exponentially.

one thing about something you mentioned above... that you’ll wait for these movies to come to Netflix... none of these movies will go to Netflix. One of the main reasons each studio built streaming services was to be able to recoup all of their money on their own homegrown movies. Thus, WB movies will go to the HBOMAX exclusively. Eventually, Universal movies will likely only exist on Peacock. The Marvel and Star Wars movies will only be accessible on Disney+, etc, etc.

 

[AzStevenCal]

As long as the theaters that are left become absolute video and audio PALACES...... I'm ok with this.

Maybe it's because I haven't been to a theater since Pulp Fiction was new but I'm not really sure what you're talking about here?

 

[Dr. Jones]

Maybe it's because I haven't been to a theater since Pulp Fiction was new but I'm not really sure what you're talking about here?

Well.... It's also very subjective.

The things I like are:

Top class audio. AMC Dolby Cinema comes to mind.
AMC Prime seems nice to me but I don't need the seat moving.
IMAX or Large Format
Recliners
Great food, adult beverages, etc.

So in short, the experience has to be worth the price.

Big, clear, beautiful picture with insane audio at a high level. Especially for top end action movies. Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Star Wars etc.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Well.... It's also very subjective.

The things I like are:

Top class audio. AMC Dolby Cinema comes to mind.
AMC Prime seems nice to me but I don't need the seat moving.
IMAX or Large Format
Recliners
Great food, adult beverages, etc.

So in short, the experience has to be worth the price.

Big, clear, beautiful picture with insane audio at a high level. Especially for top end action movies. Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Star Wars etc.

I see.

 

[Cheesebeef]

Well.... It's also very subjective.

The things I like are:

Top class audio. AMC Dolby Cinema comes to mind.
AMC Prime seems nice to me but I don't need the seat moving.
IMAX or Large Format
Recliners
Great food, adult beverages, etc.

So in short, the experience has to be worth the price.

Big, clear, beautiful picture with insane audio at a high level. Especially for top end action movies. Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Star Wars etc.

I’m with ya. The movies are my greatest love. From a very very early age, all I wanted to do was make movies. It’s what I dropped out of law school to make my own. It’s why I moved to LA. That goal has shifted to TV over the years just because it’s where my career has taken me (and because you can do much more interesting work in TV). But the movies are still my first love as far as entertainment goes and always will be.

 

[Bada0Bing]

As long as the theaters that are left become absolute video and audio PALACES...... I'm ok with this.

Yup, same here. I may go to the theater once or twice a year at most. I'm perfecting happy watching most movies at home in chunks when I'm on the bike trainer or when I have a bit of extra time. My home entertainment system is adequate for the big action films. Honestly, I would be somewhat miserable sitting in a theater seat for 3+ hours watching an Avengers flick.

However, ever so often a movie like Creed comes along that I'd like to see in the theater.

 

[Devilmaycare]

WB is HBO’s parent company. This will drive a TON of subscribers to their new subscription service HBOMAX.

and I think your scenario above is likely. The only movies in remaining theaters will be MASSIVE blockbusters (Marvel, DCEU, Star Wars, Avatar, etc) and the charge will definitely be a premium compared to now.

This has been coming for a while. The pandemic just sped up the timeline exponentially.

one thing about something you mentioned above... that you’ll wait for these movies to come to Netflix... none of these movies will go to Netflix. One of the main reasons each studio built streaming services was to be able to recoup all of their money on their own homegrown movies. Thus, WB movies will go to the HBOMAX exclusively. Eventually, Universal movies will likely only exist on Peacock. The Marvel and Star Wars movies will only be accessible on Disney+, etc, etc.

On another board I was told I was nuts yesterday when I said this is the death of the movie theaters. I don't think people realize the trouble AMC and the like are already in. With this we might see bankruptcies with the studio either needing to bail out or buy the theaters now that they're allowed to own them. They need to keep them around for the big blockbusters.

I don't think the streaming services can support stuff the the MCU. $10/month to have a room full of people as many times as you want doesn't offset the $15/person/viewing while it's in the theaters if the movie has a $500m budget. On the plus side, maybe we'll get more Jokers and less Birds of Preys.

Well.... It's also very subjective.

The things I like are:

Top class audio. AMC Dolby Cinema comes to mind.
AMC Prime seems nice to me but I don't need the seat moving.
IMAX or Large Format
Recliners
Great food, adult beverages, etc.

So in short, the experience has to be worth the price.

Big, clear, beautiful picture with insane audio at a high level. Especially for top end action movies. Mission Impossible, Top Gun, Star Wars etc.

I know I'm in the minority here, but my home theater setup is better than the cinemas. Being able to get a home release at the same time has been a want of mine for the longest time. So for someone like me that's invested in home theater it's a plus. At the same time I don't want theaters to go away since they are fun once in awhile and I know it's not reasonable for most people to put the time and money into what I have. My only fear now is that the streams won't be at high enough quality. The closer to UHD discs the better.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I've seen a ton of high end... 15k and 20k home setups and I have yet to see one with the same sound level combined with the size and grandeur of a top end cinema.

I had a cousin with a 20k setup.... Amps, high end speakers, and a 75in 8k that still ain't the same.

Sent from my mobile device using Tapatalk Pro

 

[Zobaczcie suki]

Once the pandemic is over, and if indeed the big time movie theatres disappear or are limited to "blockbusters", I would like to see a boom or revival of the smaller independent local movie houses showing independent and artistic films. It may be wishful thinking in corporate America, but who knows.

There are some fabulous ones out there. When I sent to school in Moscow Idaho, the big place to go was the "Micro Moviehouse" which was actually an old residence converted to a theatre. Not sure if it is still there. And when my son was in LA, he went to several higher end historic but smallish movie theatres that looked amazing.

 

[Devilmaycare]

I've seen a ton of high end... 15k and 20k home setups and I have yet to see one with the same sound level combined with the size and grandeur of a top end cinema.

I had a cousin with a 20k setup.... Amps, high end speakers, and a 75in 8k that still ain't the same.

I'm up over 30k into mine now. I'll take my sound over any theater that I've seen. The big advantage the home has is with bass, which I love. It's not practical to get low frequencies at high enough levels in a huge theater compared to a home theater. Plus I have tactile response devices built into the seating for the low frequencies so that you feel everything. Some movies are almost an interactive ride here. I actually broke a glass 2 nights ago with the Balrog in the new LotR release*.

I'll give you picture size, for now. My room size limits the throw distance so I was limited to 85". Ideally for the distance I am from the screen it should be about 100" to match FoV that you get in a theater.

*If you guys haven't picked up the new LotR UHD yet they're great. The PQ is amazing on them with the new Dolby Vision remaster and the new Atmos track is reference quality. It's been really fun watching them again this week.

 

[Dr. Jones]

I'm up over 30k into mine now. I'll take my sound over any theater that I've seen. The big advantage the home has is with bass, which I love. It's not practical to get low frequencies at high enough levels in a huge theater compared to a home theater. Plus I have tactile response devices built into the seating for the low frequencies so that you feel everything. Some movies are almost an interactive ride here. I actually broke a glass 2 nights ago with the Balrog in the new LotR release*.

I'll give you picture size, for now. My room size limits the throw distance so I was limited to 85". Ideally for the distance I am from the screen it should be about 100" to match FoV that you get in a theater.

*If you guys haven't picked up the new LotR UHD yet they're great. The PQ is amazing on them with the new Dolby Vision remaster and the new Atmos track is reference quality. It's been really fun watching them again this week.

Love the detail sir!

Do you have any issues with what I have always termed "rattle"?

How are you deadening the sound outside of your viewing area?

Sent from my mobile device using Tapatalk Pro

 

[DWKB]

So what price point does HBOMax now settle on?

 

[Devilmaycare]

Love the detail sir!

Do you have any issues with what I have always termed "rattle"?

How are you deadening the sound outside of your viewing area?

Turn it up loud enough that you can't hear the rattles.

The house I'm in right now is pretty solid in that regard. Everything in the room is solid when it comes to rattles and how I'm positioned it doesn't cause much in other rooms, at least nothing loud enough to notice. Only probably I've had is with a couple specific scenes that were very LFE heavy I got a little rattle from the AC vent. Very few movies hit that level at that frequency though.

I live alone, so deadening outside the room hasn't been a concern. I do have acoustic panels on the walls and large bass traps in the corners to help control ringing. They also help to lower the noise leak. Along those lines the room has a 6' window that I basically boxed in as an acoustic panel since I alway have the curtains blocking it for light. That cut down most of the noise if I go out to the street.

When I buy my next ouse I'm going to build a proper room for it for noise. There are bunch of techniques with insulations, a "goo" that you put between drywall sheets, how the drywall is hung, etc. that you can do to contain the sound in the room. What I'd really love but is hard for AZ is a basement that I could turn into one.

 

[Cheesebeef]

So what price point does HBOMax now settle on?

i think it stays where it is. This entire shift, IMO is because the HBOMAX rollout was a bit of a catastrophe. Not a Quibi level disaster but they didn’t get anywhere near the enrollment they were hoping for/needed to offset for studio losses overall this year.

so I think it stays for a while, to entice people to subscribe and then I wouldn’t be surprised if they started nudging upwards come late summer or fall once the pandemic subsides and people are now hooked to the service and what it provides.

 

[Devilmaycare]

i think it stays where it is. This entire shift, IMO is because the HBOMAX rollout was a bit of a catastrophe. Not a Quibi level disaster but they didn’t get anywhere near the enrollment they were hoping for/needed to offset for studio losses overall this year.

so I think it stays for a while, to entice people to subscribe and then I wouldn’t be surprised if they started nudging upwards come late summer or fall once the pandemic subsides and people are now hooked to the service and what it provides.

I think you can blame Game of Thrones Season 8 for the bad roll out. They were supposed to have the spin off and junk that all go canned after that disaster of a season. If S8 had lived up to anywhere close to expectation I think HBOMax would be in a much better situation.

 

[Cheesebeef]

I think you can blame Game of Thrones Season 8 for the bad roll out. They were supposed to have the spin off and junk that all go canned after that disaster of a season. If S8 had lived up to anywhere close to expectation I think HBOMax would be in a much better situation.

yeah... they didn’t have their signature show to launch the way Netflix did with House Of Cards. HBOMAX just showed up, no one knew if they had to get it plus HBO, it doesn’t really have a brand as far as content.

so, this is their way of standing out from the Netflix, Hulu, Amazons of the world... we’ve got NEW MOVIES.

I think it’s a pretty smart course correction.

 

[Chaplin]

J

yeah... they didn’t have their signature show to launch the way Netflix did with House Of Cards. HBOMAX just showed up, no one knew if they had to get it plus HBO, it doesn’t really have a brand as far as content.

so, this is their way of standing out from the Netflix, Hulu, Amazons of the world... we’ve got NEW MOVIES.

I think it’s a pretty smart course correction.

And the death knell for smaller services. This is where you are going to start seeing struggles from network streaming services like CBS and Peacock. If Disney+/Hulu, Netflix and HBOMax start pulling in content from all kinds of different sources, those streaming services are going to slowly die as they make deals with the bigger ones for their content.

It's always been the problem, going full streaming on a per channel basis isn't future proof. What HBO and Disney are doing is.

 

[Cheesebeef]

J

And the death knell for smaller services. This is where you are going to start seeing struggles from network streaming services like CBS and Peacock. If Disney+/Hulu, Netflix and HBOMax start pulling in content from all kinds of different sources, those streaming services are going to slowly die as they make deals with the bigger ones for their content.

It's always been the problem, going full streaming on a per channel basis isn't future proof. What HBO and Disney are doing is.

i feel like this is also going to just totally destroy a healthy chunk of feature writers’ income. Residuals on movies will be completely a thing of the past, much like they’re already becoming for TV writers. And there’s always that fight during negotiations where Feature Writers bitch and complain about striking or tough negotiations because TV writers are so focused on getting ANY kind of income lost on residuals from the streamers. Well, looks like the feature writers are going to finally understand why we make such a big deal out of getting as much as we can digitally while we can.

I also wonder how this effects stars on projects and their back end box office deals.

 

[Dback Jon]

yeah... they didn’t have their signature show to launch the way Netflix did with House Of Cards. HBOMAX just showed up, no one knew if they had to get it plus HBO, it doesn’t really have a brand as far as content.

so, this is their way of standing out from the Netflix, Hulu, Amazons of the world... we’ve got NEW MOVIES.

I think it’s a pretty smart course correction.

I dropped HBO after GOT ended. Nothing in HBOMax to convince me to add that to the bill.

I only have Amazon because it is bundled with Prime.

I MAY get Disney+ in the future (need new Apple TV box to get it).

 

[Dback Jon]

i feel like this is also going to just totally destroy a healthy chunk of feature writers’ income. Residuals on movies will be completely a thing of the past, much like they’re already becoming for TV writers. And there’s always that fight during negotiations where Feature Writers bitch and complain about striking or tough negotiations because TV writers are so focused on getting ANY kind of income lost on residuals from the streamers. Well, looks like the feature writers are going to finally understand why we make such a big deal out of getting as much as we can digitally while we can.

I also wonder how this effects stars on projects and their back end box office deals.

The economics of streaming new content is somewhat of a mystery to me. I can get Box Office + Video Sales.

But how does say, Netflix do the calculations to spend a huge budget on a show? New subscribers? Retained subscribers?

How would WB make a huge budget back if it is going to streaming right away? Yes, they would still have the reduced box-office, but will that be enough?