A Worst Case Scenerio If Free Agency

[George O'Brien]

The other day Joe mentioned the rumor we've been hearing that the Salary Cap might actually be reduced to $43 million. I keep hoping they are wrong and it will end up at about $45 million. If it is actually reduced to $43, it cause endless problems.

Right now the Suns are schedule to have just under $34 million in salaries, which would mean only $9 million in cap space at $43 million. Even if White is moved, it only clears $15 million and that is before accounting for a draft pick at $1.9 million. This would mean that the Suns would have to unload the pick or have him stay in Europe to have the $14 million or so to sign Kobe to the max allowed. Maybe he would go for a deal starting at $13 and maybe not.

In any case, it would leave the Suns with zero cap space and only Amare, Jake, and Lampe on the inside unless they could con Dice into playing for the veteran minimum.

An extra couple of million may not seem like much for an NBA team, but without it the situation gets very tight.

But the situation is even stranger if White does not go to the Bobcats. It turns out that $9 million is not really that much more than an above the cap team has to offer unless it is focused on a single player.

One of the paradoxes of the salary cap is that being just under the cap is far worse than be over it. The reason is that an over the cap team has a mid level exemption of $5.1 million, a lower leve exemption of $1.7 million, and can sign any player drafted. For the Suns, this is $1.9 million.

But for a team that is under the cap, anyone who is signed counts against the cap space including drafted rookies. This means that the Suns would only have just over $7 million in cap space to sign Vujanic and any other players they migh consider. If they were above the cap, they could use their LLE to sign Vujanic, but the same amount would bring the Suns available cap space to just over the MLE.

In this scenerio, the Suns could not even think of offering Dice more than the veteran minimum if they planned to hit the free agent market. This is because it would mean they would have less than the MLE to work with.

The paradox is that if White was not taken but the Suns were over the cap, they would have more money to work with. This is because they could resign Dice using his Bird rights, use the LLE on Vujanic, sign the draft pick, and still have the MLE.

Here is the scenerio:

1. No one is drafted by the Bobcats
2. The Suns draft an American player (Euros can be left in Europe)
3. Cap is reduced to $43 million

One really weird solution to this problem would be to resign Dice to a one year $9 million contract to put the team above the cap. They could use the LLE on Vujanic and still have the MLE. Then Dice and White would come off cap next season.

It would be a lot simplier if the Bobcats would take somebody.

 

[Dylan]

Interesting stuff. It gives me several thoughts:

1) Wouldn't it be nice to have that 1st rounder we gave up for Googs? With new owners, they probably wouldn't have done it... just bad timing.

2) Even tho I like White, and were glad when we got him, Brevin Knight's contract seems pretty nice right now, as it would be over.We got White early on when we hadn't given up the season, and thought we were gonna be all right. It wasn't long before we did give up and trade Marbury... just bad timing.

3) We make a push, by trading Marbury and Hardaway, to get cap space for free agents, and it is a year when the cap may go down, and only Kobe as real difference makers. Even the mid-level FA's are not all that exciting .. just bad timing.

With the Suns history of bad luck/bad timing, I wouldn't be surprised at all if what you say does happen. If the Suns feel they gotta get under the cap enough to sign Kobe, they will HAVE to make sure Charlotte, or someone, takes some of our cap money, and if they feel they will get Kobe, they will do it. otherwise this offseason may not be as exciting as we are all hoping.

 

[capologist]

One really weird solution to this problem would be to resign Dice to a one year $9 million contract to put the team above the cap. They could use the LLE on Vujanic and still have the MLE. Then Dice and White would come off cap next season.

Weird... and totally unnecessary.

When a free agent with Bird status is “in limbo”— i.e., you haven’t renounced his Bird rights and he hasn’t re-signed with you or signed with another team— he counts against your cap at 250% of his previous salary (if it’s above the league average) or 300% of his previous salary (if it’s below the league average). In Dice’s case, this is, um, a shitload. Several shitloads, actually. Heck, we could trade away our pick and every player we have under contract, and still be over the cap just on the limbo values of Dice and Keon Clark.

[Note: A bizarre effect of these rules is that a FA whose prior salary was just slightly under the league average salary actually counts more against your cap than a FA whose prior salary was at or just slightly above the average. Then again, as bizarre **** goes in the CBA, this is about #472 on the list.]

 

[Dylan]

And if he is renounced, we cannot resign him, can we, for a year or something? I thought I read that somewhere.

 

[capologist]

Slight correction: The percentages are actually 150% and 200%, not 250% and 300%. So Dice wouldn’t put us over the top if we traded away every contract. However, it’s still enough to keep us over the cap in our actual situation.

And Dylan, if you renounce a player’s Bird rights, you can still re-sign him with whatever cap room you have (or to minimum if you have no cap room).

The one-year effect of the renouncing applies only to the Bird status. I.e., if you renounce a player’s Bird rights, and he doesn’t go and sign with somebody else, he gets his Bird status back the following year. I suspect that this provision was included in order to allow the Bulls to offer Michael Jordan eleventy kajillion dollars to return after the lockout season. I don’t think anybody has ever actually taken advantage of the expiration of a Bird renouncement, and I doubt that anybody ever will.