About HS Picks

[Irish]

I was struct by an a oddity in this years "final four" of the NBA, all four teams featured big men drafted straight out of high school.

Andrew Bynum - 2005 - #10 pick by LA Lakers
Dwight Howard - 2004 - #1 pick Orlando
Kendrick Perkins - 2003 - #27 pick by Memphis traded to Boston
Amare Stoudemire - 2002 - #9 pick by Phoenix

It's not an anomoly, in that two other key players in the finals were originally drafted straight from HS

Kobe Bryant - 1996 - #13 pick drafted by Hornets, traded to LA Lakers
Keven Garmett - 1995 - #5 pick by the Wolves, traded to Bozton for group of players including Al Jefferson

Al Jefferson - 2004 - #15 p;ick by Boston, traded to Timberwolves for Garnett.
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Consider that only Garnett and Howard were premium (to seven) draft picks, it becomes apparent that hitting a home run with HS selections is a key way to get impact plasers later than the top seven. Without drafting high school guys, the result would have been far less impressive.

The rules have changed, so this path to success is restrictd. It seems likely that one and out college players are less likely to be steals.

 

[Mainstreet]

The rules have changed, so this path to success is restrictd. It seems likely that one and out college players are less likely to be steals.

Still I think this is a team's best bet to get a star if they are not drafting early.

 

[Tyler]

Still I think this is a team's best bet to get a star if they are not drafting early.

Name me 5 top level players drafted round 2 or later.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Name me 5 top level players drafted round 2 or later.

I'm not sure about top level players but there is value beyond the first round. Just to name a few, in no particular order:

Mehmet Okur
Steve Kerr
Steven Jackson
Anthony Mason
Rashard Lewis
Monta Ellis
Dennis Rodman
Gilbert Arenas
Paul Milsap
Cuttino Mobley
Nick Van Exel
Cliff Robinson
Cedric Ceballos
Vernon Maxwell
Mark Price
Manu Ginobili
Jeff Hornacek
PJ Brown
Antonio Davis
Anthony Mason
Toni Kukoc
Carlos Boozer
Michael Redd

Steve

 

[Tyler]

I'm not sure about top level players but there is value beyond the first round. Just to name a few, in no particular order:

Mehmet Okur
Steve Kerr
Steven Jackson
Anthony Mason
Rashard Lewis
Monta Ellis
Dennis Rodman
Gilbert Arenas
Paul Milsap
Cuttino Mobley
Nick Van Exel
Cliff Robinson
Cedric Ceballos
Vernon Maxwell
Mark Price
Manu Ginobili
Jeff Hornacek
PJ Brown
Antonio Davis
Anthony Mason
Toni Kukoc
Carlos Boozer
Michael Redd

Steve

You would give each and everyone of those max money and build a team around them?

 

[AzStevenCal]

You would give each and everyone of those max money and build a team around them?

Well, yeah - wouldn't you??? I'd start PJ Brown, Dennis Rodman, Anthony Mason, Antonio Davis and Stephen Jackson. We wouldn't win many games but we'd rebound well and probably win every fight.

Steve

 

[Tyler]

Well, yeah - wouldn't you??? I'd start PJ Brown, Dennis Rodman, Anthony Mason, Antonio Davis and Stephen Jackson. We wouldn't win many games but we'd rebound well and probably win every fight.

Steve

LOL, I would love them all on the same team. My real question was would you take everyone of them by themselves and match them with 5 other players that are not as good as they are on the same team and expect to make a run every year?

 

[AzStevenCal]

LOL, I would love them all on the same team. My real question was would you take everyone of them by themselves and match them with 5 other players that are not as good as they are on the same team and expect to make a run every year?

Actually, with a little tweaking of that roster, who knows. The NBA is a star driven league but I wonder what would happen if you had 8 guys that were all capable of being the 2nd or 3rd best player on a given team. We came pretty close to seeing just that with Boston during their last championship. Garnett was not quite the player he had been so they were pretty deep with players that were just short of dominant.

The point of this thread though is that the salary cap and draft scenario create a sort of handicap system that means if you get someone who is better than his draft position or better than his salary you have an advantage. The greater the discrepancy the greater the advantage. High school players offered pretty much the greatest reward in this area. You could find a superstar without drafting 1,2 or 3.

Steve

 

[Tyler]

Actually, with a little tweaking of that roster, who knows. The NBA is a star driven league but I wonder what would happen if you had 8 guys that were all capable of being the 2nd or 3rd best player on a given team. We came pretty close to seeing just that with Boston during their last championship. Garnett was not quite the player he had been so they were pretty deep with players that were just short of dominant.

The point of this thread though is that the salary cap and draft scenario create a sort of handicap system that means if you get someone who is better than his draft position or better than his salary you have an advantage. The greater the discrepancy the greater the advantage. High school players offered pretty much the greatest reward in this area. You could find a superstar without drafting 1,2 or 3.

Steve

I do agree with the high school kids having the higher ceiling regardless of draft position.

I think a team of Jared Dudley's could win an NBA title.

 

[binkar]

Name me 5 top level players drafted round 2 or later.

Might be a little tough since there are only 2 rounds.

 

[Irish]

Actually, with a little tweaking of that roster, who knows. The NBA is a star driven league but I wonder what would happen if you had 8 guys that were all capable of being the 2nd or 3rd best player on a given team. We came pretty close to seeing just that with Boston during their last championship. Garnett was not quite the player he had been so they were pretty deep with players that were just short of dominant.

The point of this thread though is that the salary cap and draft scenario create a sort of handicap system that means if you get someone who is better than his draft position or better than his salary you have an advantage. The greater the discrepancy the greater the advantage. High school players offered pretty much the greatest reward in this area. You could find a superstar without drafting 1,2 or 3.

Steve

I think you pretty much "get" my point, although my real focus was on bigs. Talented mid sized guys slip through the cracks all the time, but not star level bigs.

Lopez may prove to be the exception, but his college career would not have led you to believe he would particularly good.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Talented mid sized guys slip through the cracks all the time, but not star level bigs.

Correct. There's a reason that the Suns quest for a talented "true" big guy always brings to mind the search for the Holy Grail.

Steve

 

[Mainstreet]

Name me 5 top level players drafted round 2 or later.

Where did I mention the second round. What I was saying, college players who only play for one year and then enter the draft may be an NBA team's best bet for drafting a star if they are not drafting early. Less is known about a one year college player and the extent of his upside. Maybe some communication problems here.

However, as AzStevenCal noted, some very good players can be had in the second round but this was not the point I was trying to make.

 

[Tyler]

Where did I mention the second round. What I was saying, college players who only play for one year and then enter the draft may be an NBA team's best bet for drafting a star if they are not drafting early. Less is known about a one year college player and the extent of his upside. Maybe some communication problems here.

However, as AzStevenCal noted, some very good players can be had in the second round but this was not the point I was trying to make.

After re-reading your post with no inhibitors in my system I see that you said after the top 7. My mistake.