According to this Suns will not win the Championship

jbeecham

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Apparently those rankings & stats don't included strength of schedule in their calculations. Orlando is the only top 8 team that Boston has faced so far and they lost that game.

Top 8:
Boston
SA
PHX
Orlando
Utah
Dallas
Detroit
New Orleans (for now, probably Denver eventually)
 

Stargazer

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That's not totally crazy, but seems a little off. Boston definitely has the best chance of winning it all, simply because it seems so likely that they will make it to the finals, whereas there are several teams in the west that have a decent shot at making the finals (meaning that the odds for any one of them are lower).

That said, these rankings seem to suggest that the odds that the east will beat the west are 2:1, which I don't believe. I think strength of schedule may affect that.

Edit: whoops, not true -- the underlying rankings that are the basis for this calculation take strength of schedule into account. Looks like Boston's high score may be due to its outsized margin of victory (owing to the Knicks game).
 
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Covert Rain

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http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

According to this the Phoenix Suns will not win the NBA Championship

Neither will the Spurs.

ODDS of winning

Suns 4.7 %

Spurs 9.8%

Celtics 42.6% HUH?!?!?

:biglaugh:

I was watching NBA tonight. They finally had someone bring up the fact that if you look at the combining winning percentage of the teams the Celtics have beaten, it's way way way to early to crown them the best team in the NBA, let alone the best team in the East.
 

TheHopToad

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The odds for all Western Coinference teams are low because there are so many of them that are contenders. If you took "the field" in the WC, the odds would be quite high. Conversely, Boston appears to have a straight shot to the finals because the competition in the Eastern Conference is significantly weaker.
 

elindholm

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I'm not going to sort through his methodology, but something is fishy.

Each of his top three Eastern teams, according to his analysis, would be favored in the Finals if they were to get there. For example, he gives Boston a 53.6% chance of getting to the Finals and a 42.6% chance of winning, which means a 42.6/53.6 = 79.5% of winning a hypothetical Finals series. Orlando and Detroit both have percentages in the mid-60s. That doesn't make much sense to me. Even if you allow that Boston has a relatively easy road to the Finals, there's no way that they should be 4:1 favorites over whoever emerges from the West.

I do see that he has those three eastern teams ranked higher than anyone in the West in his overall rankings, but the gaps seem small to me, especially given how little information has been collected so far this season.

On the other side of the coin, he gives the Suns a 16.9% chance of reaching the Finals but only a 4.7% chance of winning, which means a 4.7/16.9 = 27.8% chance of winning should they get there. Given that the Suns have already swept the season series with Orlando, that seems unrealistically low to me. Even the Spurs are given only a 35.3% chance of winning a hypothetical Finals matchup.

Still, it's cute.
 

ASUCHRIS

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More mental masturbation by Hollinger...his excessively stat oriented background is really starting to get over the top.
 

LostInTexas

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awww he is just trying to give the easterners hope before the west destroys them latter in the year
 

mojorizen7

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As much as it pains me to say....when "stepping out of the box" & analizing with an unbias eye, i'd have to agree with the majority of those odds. Although i'd put Detroit slightly higher than Orlando because of the veteran experience there.
I believe that the SPURS, PISTON'S,JAZZ,CELTICS, & yes the MAGIC are more likely to win the championship than our SUNS. Although we'll in all likelyhood finish with a better regular season record than most.
Signed...."Hoping i'm very wrong!"
 

arwillan

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Apparently those rankings & stats don't included strength of schedule in their calculations. Orlando is the only top 8 team that Boston has faced so far and they lost that game.

Top 8:
Boston
SA
PHX
Orlando
Utah
Dallas
Detroit
New Orleans (for now, probably Denver eventually)

i can't say i see denver improving drastically. their defense is horrendous!i would say that 8th spot could be contested.... portland looks good, cleveland is very tough when they have a healthy lebron, houston is pretty good, indiana is decent, toronto (when healthy) is good. dallas is also in all sorts of trouble, i'm not even sure they deserve that top 8 ranking
 

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