Adam Eaton

[NavyVet]

Signs a long term deal with the ChiSox. To think what this new regime could have done with the talent at hand...

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...n-to-long-term-deal-worth-up-to-43-5-million/

 

[Dback Jon]

That is a lot of money for him.

 

[Phrazbit]

Its really only a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal. Those last couple big money years are team options. That is a great contract. Capable fielder, legit leadoff guy, he hit .300 last year.

If Skaggs develops even into a #3 starter that trade will probably go down as the dumbest of Towers many stupid moves.

 

[NavyVet]

I like Pollock and think he'll be a serviceable CF, I'm just more about the talent that was sent away and wondering, what if, Tony LaRussa had been brought on board two years ago?

That being said, I've watched some pre-season games, and I don't think we're as bad off as I originally thought. We have talent across the board and as with the AZ football Cardinals, it's a wait and see how they can develop the rooks, as well as re-develop the core. They didn't bring in Tony to sit on his flanks. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will exceed the doom-and-gloom expectation, and next year, should be in the mix for post-season play.

 

[Phrazbit]

I like Pollock too, when I lament that Eaton is gone its not Pollock who I would see sit but Trumbo, who should under no circumstances be in the out field... or really in the NL for that matter.

I think we might be able to score some runs, we've got some real potential in several of our bats, if a couple of those guys have breakout years then we'll score... however, we have a horrifying combination of terrible starting pitching, what looks like a horrible defense AND a pen full of shaky pitchers.

Looking at the pitching staff especially I cannot see how we lose less than 90 games.

 

[don7031]

Having less than two full years in the majors, Eaton still had a couple league minimum years and then three arbitration years to go under the rookie salary structure. In effect the arbitration money just got spread out over five years instead of three. The White Sox are gambling that what they got from Eaton last year is what they are going to get every year. If that turns out to be the case, then this will be a win/win deal.

 

[AZ Native]

I am happy for Eaton. I was upset about trading him and the BS reason given. I wish him well.

 

[gmabel830]

Who needs Eaton? We just picked up a minor league catcher from the ChiSox.. championship!

 

[unseenaz]

Another KT blunder.

Eaton was even dubbed "center fielder of the future" BY KT himself. Dude was a lunatic I hope he is never GM anywhere again

 

[PDXChris]

Who needs Eaton? We just picked up a minor league catcher/pitcher from the ChiSox.. championship!

FTFY

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Signs a long term deal with the ChiSox. To think what this new regime could have done with the talent at hand...

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2...n-to-long-term-deal-worth-up-to-43-5-million/

What about Eaton justifies this contract?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Oh for Pete's sake.

Pick the player:

486 AB .300 avg .362 obp 1 HR 15 SB 9 CS 35 RBI 76 runs .988 fielding % 3.7 war

265 AB .302 avg .353 obp 7 HR 14 SB 3 CS 24 RBI 41 runs .994 fielding % 3.9 war

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Player 2s batting with 231 extra ABs

12 HR 25 SBs 43 RBI 75 runs

 

[Phrazbit]

Oh for Pete's sake.

Pick the player:

486 AB .300 avg .362 obp 1 HR 15 SB 9 CS 35 RBI 76 runs .988 fielding % 3.7 war

265 AB .302 avg .353 obp 7 HR 14 SB 3 CS 24 RBI 41 runs .994 fielding % 3.9 war

Why does it have to be either/or and not both? No one is lamenting that we chose Pollack over him, its that we chose Trumbo over him.

Its basically 5 mil a year for 5 years, given the crazy money being dished out that is a pretty reasonable contract.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

If Eaton isn't at center then he is just an extremely poor man's Parra. He hit 1 home run in almost 500 at bats and got thrown out stealing 33% of the time.

Now do you think a guy with no power and average speed is going to keep hitting .300 in today's game? It's an aberration.

That contract isnt bad because of the average. It's bad because of the length. I doubt he is starting for anyone in two years.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

After stating the obvious that guys with no power and average speed rarely hit .300 I decided to go check Eaton babip. Sure enough, he was .294, .294, and then last year he was .359. Which inflated his batting average by a similar amount. So if he hits .252 again by just hitting league average of balls in play, has no power, and provides average at best speed...is that a five year deal player?

 

[Matt L]

He will never have power, but he will justify that contract if he is able to carry an OBP over .350 for the next five years and continue to play a competent center field. If he continues to get thrown out on the base path they can limit his steal attempts but an ability to get on base consistently is a very valuable skill.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

He will never have power, but he will justify that contract if he is able to carry an OBP over .350 for the next five years and continue to play a competent center field. If he continues to get thrown out on the base path they can limit his steal attempts but an ability to get on base consistently is a very valuable skill.

Except he has never had that OBP until he had an extremely lucky year with balls in play.

So are you going to bet on 5 years of a statistical outlier?

His average will be about .265 this year with an OBP around .300 just by having a normal season with balls in play.

 

[Matt L]

Except he has never had that OBP until he had an extremely lucky year with balls in play.

So are you going to bet on 5 years of a statistical outlier?

His average will be about .265 this year with an OBP around .300 just by having a normal season with balls in play.

In 900 plate appearances over three seasons his OBP was at .350, the league average over that time frame is .323. I agree that his BABIP will be less than .359 this year. Even if/when it is lower, I believe his will OBP around .330. The three projection systems on Fangraphs (ZIPS, Steamer, Depth Charts) give a range of OBP for this year from .337 to .354.

Ultimately, he has shown that he is better than average at getting on base and is a competent Center Fielder. I like the contract because they are basically buying out his arbitration years and adding options in case they do not want to let him hit free agency. I think this is a smart move when you are a team with a medium sized payroll.

 

[Phrazbit]

You're weighting averages compiled in 88 and 250 at bats and comparing them to numbers put up in 486 ABs and saying the significantly larger sample size is the outlier. IMO that does not make a ton of sense.

We're also talking about a guy that hit .350 with a .450 OBP in the minors. Those kinds of huge numbers translate and in his first year as a full-time player some of that potential was realized.

Eaton might not be great at stealing bases but he does have above average speed on the base paths. And there have been a ton of high average low power hitters. He looks like a prototypical leadoff guy, decent speed, good OBP sees a lot of pitches. I expect that over the next 5 years he will hit .280-300 with an OBP over .350, while providing solid defense.

That is worth 5 million easily.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I will put an avatar bet that he hits .270 or less this year, that must be used until pitchers and catchers report in the off season

 

[gmabel830]

I will put an avatar bet that he hits .270 or less this year, that must be used until pitchers and catchers report in the off season

Don't you have to clear big decisions like this with your soon-to-be wife now?

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Banging on Ahmed and his super low BABip made me want to revisit the guy who had a season of super high BABip that simply won't be duplicated. Lets see

LULZ Adam Eaton and his 5 year deal

BA .136
OBP .174
SLG .182
OPS .386
BABip .154

I predicted he would be benched this year but we will just assume he makes his career high of 486 ABs. To hit .300 as people predicted, he would have 145 hits.

He has 6 so far in 9% of his expected at bats.

So that leaves 139 needed in 442 remaining at bats.

So he just has to hit .315 for the remainder of the season to get .300.

His BABip of .359 got him to .300 last year. So he will need a BABip of around .370 the remainder of the season to get close to this, which is pretty much unheard of over any length of time.

My bet was .270 or less. He will need to hit about .285 the rest of the year to beat that.

Probably not happening.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Wow he is awful this year. At this rate he won't make it to June as the starter. He is killing the White Sox.

Fielding stats:

RTZ -5
RDRS -2


To give you an idea how bad this is, let's compare to Mark Trumbo

RTZ -4
RDRS -3

So basically he is giving you Mark Trumbo defense with Nick Ahmed's bat.

 

[Dback Jon]

Wow he is awful this year. At this rate he won't make it to June as the starter. He is killing the White Sox.

Fielding stats:

RTZ -5
RDRS -2


To give you an idea how bad this is, let's compare to Mark Trumbo

RTZ -4
RDRS -3

So basically he is giving you Mark Trumbo defense with Nick Ahmed's bat.

Wow - that is awful