Air Raid Run/Pass Option Analysis

[Sandan]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/nfl-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-offense-analytics

 

[Solar7]

Really good article. Was fun stuff to learn.

 

[Yuma]

So having watched the Chargers over the years, despite what analytics say, passing almost every down doesn't always win football games!

 

[slanidrac16]

Another Cardinal....FIRST DOWN!

 

[jf-08]

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/05/nfl-cardinals-kliff-kingsbury-offense-analytics

Great article.

 

[Sandan]

So having watched the Chargers over the years, despite what analytics say, passing almost every down doesn't always win football games!

It's the options not just passing

If you get predictable you lose. See the part on Chip Kelly

 

[Krangodnzr]

"On a traditional run play, the offense is playing 10-on-11 because the defense does not have to worry about the quarterback. Allowing the QB to read a player evens up the numbers. If you can use the quarterback as the runner on those RPO plays, now the offense has a numbers advantage, which explains why Kingsbury had his heart set on drafting Kyler Murray to run his offense."

Yep. This is why once this offense starts going it's going to be hard to stop.

Murray will have to be accounted for on every play. 90% of QBs in the league cant do this.

 

[Delmar M Lewis]

So having watched the Chargers over the years, despite what analytics say, passing almost every down doesn't always win football games!

Agreed if a team passes a vast majority of the while they score often and early it gives the opposing team a opportunity to do the same that has a more balanced R/P thus wearing the the defense down and running out the clock

 

[Krangodnzr]

Agreed if a team passes a vast majority of the while they score often and early if gives the opportunity to do the same that has a more balanced R/P this wearing the the defense down and running out the clock

Scoring often and alot puts alot of pressure on the opposing team. If you even have an average defense, they are going to get alot of turnovers and sacks.

 

[kerouac9]

"On a traditional run play, the offense is playing 10-on-11 because the defense does not have to worry about the quarterback. Allowing the QB to read a player evens up the numbers. If you can use the quarterback as the runner on those RPO plays, now the offense has a numbers advantage, which explains why Kingsbury had his heart set on drafting Kyler Murray to run his offense."

Yep. This is why once this offense starts going it's going to be hard to stop.

Murray will have to be accounted for on every play. 90% of QBs in the league cant do this.

D Watson
L Jackson
R Wilson
J Allen
P Mahomes
C Newton

That’s almost 10% of the starters without having to mention guys like C Wentz, D Prescott, Trubisky and a handful of others. Let’s not get crazy here.

One thing that I’m quietly concerned about is David Johnson being willing to block on those plays. He hasn’t been a willing or able blocker in the past, and on some of these RPOs, he’s going to have to slow up a defensive end.

 

[Harry]

I think most of the true RPOs will happen in the red zone. You’ll certainly see play action elsewhere but I don’t see them running Murray as often as they would in the college version of this offense.

 

[Krangodnzr]

D Watson
L Jackson
R Wilson
J Allen
P Mahomes
C Newton

That’s almost 10% of the starters without having to mention guys like C Wentz, D Prescott, Trubisky and a handful of others. Let’s not get crazy here.

One thing that I’m quietly concerned about is David Johnson being willing to block on those plays. He hasn’t been a willing or able blocker in the past, and on some of these RPOs, he’s going to have to slow up a defensive end.

Yeah a bit of hyperbole for sure, but most of those guys arent as athletic as Murray.

Great point on DJ. As good as his physical skills are, he still struggles at almost all of the mental skills of playing RB.

 

[football karma]

i keep going back to this ...

but if you look at how Russell Wilson uses the run, i thinks its a model for Murray

Early in games -- Wilson almost never runs off the RPO. its either a hand off, or, a play action pass. He will scramble for yards on a pass that breaks down, but as a last resort--

that changes late -- he will run after keeping on a RPO. He looks to run off of a pass set ....

Wilson kinda saves that stuff until its absolutely necessary.

 

[Goldfield]

Awesome read

 

[Krangodnzr]

I've never been a huge proponent of the TE position.

I loved the part about teams scoring more with less TEs. Mike Leach is spot on, TEs are really hard to find.

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

Great article.

I second that

 

[Cardsfaninlouky]

I've never been a huge proponent of the TE position.

I loved the part about teams scoring more with less TEs. Mike Leach is spot on, TEs are really hard to find.

I've always thought the TE was used too one dimensional in most offenses. The TE should pinch block for a split second, then release into space, whether that be the flat, or across the Middle to occupy a LBer. Make the defense cover the entire field & TE's can help do that. I'm excited to see how KK will use everyone on offense.