Anatomy of a Sleeper

[Irish]

After the fist half dozen picks in the NBA draft, it is very hard to make a good pick. Every prospect has holes in this game and by mid first round failures are very common. Some guys turn out to be total busts like Earl Clark and other take forever to develop like Robin Lopez. As a rule teams like the Suns have to hit a few home runs in the later picks by clicking with a sleeper. If it is hard to do well in the mid first round, it is horrible trying to click with a sleeper. But it can happen, though odds are against it, as Tucker and Strawberry demonstrated.

This year it would take trading for sleeper pick much as when the Suns took Barbosa in 2003. He was not what was advertised, but he had a productive career in Phoenix.. My sleeper candidate is Charles Jenkins of Hofstra. I can certainly imagine he might fail, but I think he’s worth a gamble.

What makes a player a sleeper? The starting point is that a sleeper is likely to get over looked. Jenkins is a perfect example.

• NOT VRY BIG: The size standards of the NBA are PG over 6’4”, SG over 6’6”, SF over 6’8”, PF over 6’10” and Centers over 7’0”. This means most college players are projected based on change of position. There are super athletes that can beat the tyranny of size, but it holds back many prospects.
• SENIOR: Due to the inevitable position change, seniors are often dismissed as having less “up side” than freshman or sophomores. Most super athletes are drafted early, so it is assumed that who is left is not interesting.
• NOT A VISIBLE PROGRAM: Guys with U. Conn, Duke, and Kansa get a lot of TV exposure. Teams from smaller schools are on TV less and programs that don’t even get into the tournament are almost invisible. Since the draft is at least partially geared toward selling tickets, low visibility programs aren’t a big draw.
• PERCEIVED WEAK COMPETITION: Visibility doesn’t mean a player is any good, but does mean he plays against more quality opponents.

Jenkins is almost a poster boy for the kind of player ignore by most scouts. He is 6’3” in shoes with a wing span of 6’75” which is OK for a point guard but not a shooting guard. He was a senior at Hofstra of the Colonial league. Oddly enough the Colonial league turned out to be better than most of us realized with Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth, and George Mason; still Hofstra did not get much attention even with some games against ranked opponents. Still, he could easily be overlooked.

Why bother? The thing that gets ones attention is his 22.6 ppg while shooting an impressive 42% for three and 56% for two pointers. By comparison, Fredette shot 38.6% for three and 49.1% for two. Jenkins scored 6 points a game less than Fredette, but on 6 fewer attempts per game. One of the things I was impressed by was that Jenkins relied much more on mid range shots than just layups..

Comparing Jenkins to Fredette is interesting because Fredette is ranked as a lottery pick, yet Jenkis had more assists, 4.8 to 4.3 with fewer turnovers 2.2 versua 3.8 ; but more steals steals 1.7 to 1.3, blocks 0.6 to 0, and equales Fredette in rpg at 3.4. http://www.draftexpress.com/stats.p...t2=DESC&pos=&stage=&min=20&conference=&sort=6

Perhaps the most intriguing part of his profile according DX is defense. “Size will continue to be an issue for Jenkins on defense, as well, but his energy level will help him to adapt. Jenkins is a physical defender, always willing to scrap. He plays with solid energy, closing out on perimeter shooters and always attempting to disrupt shots, even if his man gets by him. Furthermore, his lateral quickness looks to be above average and, while he will not be a defensive stopper, he will not be a liability, either.”

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Charles-Jenkins-6189/#ixzz1Ph0X6bBy
http://www.draftexpress.com

One thing they underplay is that Jenkins at 220 pounds and 16 bench presses at the Portland combine is a lot more likely to stand his ground on defense. Considering the defensive limitations of Nash and Brooks, I could see him having some value as defender.

The real question is going to be his point guard skills. ““I do think he can play the point because he has great strength and he can pass the ball very well,” adds Cassara [his coach]. “I think those things are really going to help him transition to that position.”

From DraftExpress.com http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Charles-Jenkins-6189/#ixzz1Ph3Rihxt
http://www.draftexpress.com

I have never seen him play, so I don’t know if he is as good as this write-up makes it seem. He compares well with many of the better know players.
http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Just-By-the-Numbers-the-2011-Guard-Crop-3749/ But he’s my sleeper for this draft.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Charles-Jenkins-6189/
.

 

[Irish]

I'm disappointed there has been no discussion of my prospect, Charles Jenkins or at least a discussion of other sleepers

In any case, Jenkins has the potential of being a like Barbosa off the bench but with the defensive skills. I don't know if he is going to be a future Suns PG, but might be of help.

 

[PhxGametime]

My sleeper pick is Iman Shumpert G Georgia Tech. 6'5.5 222 and the 2nd best athlete in Draft. I have him rated as top 5 defender in this Draft and can guard the 1, 2, and some 3's. Solid rebounder at close to 6 rebounds, around 3-4 assists, around 3 steals... But he get into the lane and averages around 5 FT's. He can split time with Dowdell at the PG and play alongside Nash.


He will need to improve 3PT shooting but is Andre Iguodala esque.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Faried fits your sleeper definition perfectly

 

[Irish]

DX has the two going back to back in the first round My concern is that he's not a great offensive player nor a proven PG. He has two inches in wing span over Jenkins and two pounds. I guess Schumpert will go earlier due to playing on a much better known team. We'll see.