Any fear of a 2021 1st round repeat?

[Stout]

A good top end for Dotson is probably Tyler Lockett or Jeremy Maclin though they both had better breakout scores than Dotson does. And Lockett was a 3rd rounder.

A good low end for Dotson is probably Lockett or Maclin though he is clearly better than both and will be a special player at the next level and has a ceiling higher than Hill.

I mean, if you're going to state random unsubstantiated "facts," I might as well join you. Your opinion holds no less nor more weight than mine, after all.

 

[DVontel]

ceiling higher than Hill.

I hope this isn’t Tyreek Hill, lol.

 

[Stout]

Wow, stout. I think you’re out to lunch here. Everyone understands that’s chopper’s opinion and in discussing the two items (the metric and the physical attributes) he’s just explaining the basis for his opinion. That’s a lot of vitriol you’re unpacking there buddy.

Eh, maybe you're right. I mean, he's stating opinion as fact, which reads as smarmy to me, but perhaps that's not his intent, and, at any rate, there's no need to overreact to it. My bad. It's late on my late day, and I'm hangry lol I think hangry should be a legal defense. What say you, Ouchie?

 

[Stout]

I hope this isn’t Tyreek Hill, lol.

I was in sarcasm mode, if you couldn't tell

 

[Chopper0080]

And to "not live in absolutes" here are the players who were in the top 25 in receiving yardage last year and did not meet this breakout age criteria.

Cooper Kupp
Deebo Samuel
Diontae Johnson
Michael Pittman
Hunter Renfrow
Jaylen Waddle (4.3)
Marquis Brown (4.3)

So, 7 out of the top 25. That top 25 excluded some guys who are normally in it, but I will leave it as is. Outside of the 4.3 guys, i don't believe any were taken in round 1.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

A good low end for Dotson is probably Lockett or Maclin though he is clearly better than both and will be a special player at the next level and has a ceiling higher than Hill.

I mean, if you're going to state random unsubstantiated "facts," I might as well join you. Your opinion holds no less nor more weight than mine, after all.

I can’t tell if you honestly believe what you just typed or if you’re using hyperbole to try to make a point here…

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

Eh, maybe you're right. I mean, he's stating opinion as fact, which reads as smarmy to me, but perhaps that's not his intent, and, at any rate, there's no need to overreact to it. My bad. It's late on my late day, and I'm hangry lol I think hangry should be a legal defense. What say you, Ouchie?

On an internet sports board? As good a defense as any other!

 

[DVontel]

Honestly, the Penn State guy we really need to focus on is Arnold Ebikiete.

 

[Matt L]

A player like Lockett could be deadly with Murray.

Could we just trade for lockett?

 

[BritCard]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

 

[Stout]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Nah, that's not an "elite measurable"

Yeah, the kid's a flat-out baller.

 

[cardpa]

xc_hide_links_from_guests_guests_error_hide_media

Yeah, I'm a PSU homer, however no matter how you cut it, Dotson knows how to get open and get separation. He catches everything thrown to him. He has played all three WR positions at PSU so it's not like he's pinned to one position like a slot receiver. He can get deep and take the top off a defense. I don't think you will find any QB who wouldn't like a WR who can not only get separation which makes throwing the football to them a little easier but who they know is going to catch it when it gets there.

I remember when a lot of people were swooning over Michael Floyd and I never understood why because when I watched his highlights he hardly ever got separation at the college level so how was that going to translate to the NFL and we all know how that turned out.

 

[BritCard]

Nah, that's not an "elite measurable"

Yeah, the kid's a flat-out baller.

I see where Chopper is coming from on the breakout score, it can be a good indicator. But like all indicators it's not perfect. There are plenty of players who met that criteria and sucked and plenty who didn't and were good, but generally speaking the odds are higher if they do and the draft is really all about playing the odds.

It's one reason I don't like Olave. I can't think of a successful NFL WR that regressed in rank over their college career from WR1 to WR3. And from a testing perspective I can only find three successful NFL WR's from the past 10 years that had a 32" vertical jump or less and that's Calvin Ridley (which is actually a spot on comp for Olave I haven't seen in height, weight, speed and testing), Jarvis Landry and Cooper Kupp.

From probably 1000 WR's that's not great odds, but that doesn't mean he won't be very good. Simply that statistically the odds are against him.

 

[BritCard]

Yeah, I'm a PSU homer, however no matter how you cut it, Dotson knows how to get open and get separation. He catches everything thrown to him. He has played all three WR positions at PSU so it's not like he's pinned to one position like a slot receiver. He can get deep and take the top off a defense. I don't think you will find any QB who wouldn't like a WR who can not only get separation which makes throwing the football to them a little easier but who they know is going to catch it when it gets there.

I remember when a lot of people were swooning over Michael Floyd and I never understood why because when I watched his highlights he hardly ever got separation at the college level so how was that going to translate to the NFL and we all know how that turned out.

The main plus for Dotson is that everything he achieved was with complete garbage at QB.

 

[DVontel]

Nah, that's not an "elite measurable"

Yeah, the kid's a flat-out baller.

I mean, him vs press is a valid concern. He didn’t get pressed in either clip.

I’m also curious as to why you don’t talk about the other touted Penn State player in Arnold Ebikeite. That’s a guy I would be more than fine with at 23 than Dotson.

 

[SoonerLou]

Schrager has Dotson going to the Packers now.

Zion Johnson to the Cardinals.
Linderbaum to the Cowboys..

 

[Stout]

I mean, him vs press is a valid concern. He didn’t get pressed in either clip.

I’m also curious as to why you don’t talk about the other touted Penn State player in Arnold Ebikeite. That’s a guy I would be more than fine with at 23 than Dotson.

I honestly just haven't delved too far into the draft pool yet. Outside of a few players, I don't know enough to get excited or down on them. He was good at PSU but I didn't see him as elite level. I'd certainly go for him in round 2, but probably not round 1. Then again, I want us to go offense in rounds 1-3 because the offense is our only real shot to be good.

 

[BritCard]

I honestly just haven't delved too far into the draft pool yet. Outside of a few players, I don't know enough to get excited or down on them. He was good at PSU but I didn't see him as elite level. I'd certainly go for him in round 2, but probably not round 1. Then again, I want us to go offense in rounds 1-3 because the offense is our only real shot to be good.

Is it?

FO had the defense higher ranked than the offense vs DVOA. The defense finished 5th. The offense was 15th.

I'd say it's more that the defense can afford to stay where it's at while the offense definitely needs to improve.

 

[Chopper0080]

I mean, him vs press is a valid concern. He didn’t get pressed in either clip.

I’m also curious as to why you don’t talk about the other touted Penn State player in Arnold Ebikeite. That’s a guy I would be more than fine with at 23 than Dotson.

I mean, he didn't get touched in either clip and in the first one it was still a contested catch even after he turned the DB from Rutgers around.

16 for Rutgers was a Freshman. 14 for Michigan was a special team who played some in sub packages. This is the problem with scouting WRs. They go against a lot of really bad DBs and make them look really bad. Every CB Dotson plays against will be significantly better than those two players.

 

[Stout]

Is it?

FO had the defense higher ranked than the offense vs DVOA. The defense finished 5th. The offense was 15th.

I'd say it's more that the defense can afford to stay where it's at while the offense definitely needs to improve.

Yes, but the defense was extremely poor against the run and we're set to be extremely poor in pass rush, too. I don't think it's realistic to expect much from the defense. That could improve, but we would have to invest significant high-end draft capital to do so, and I feel it is better spent on offense.

 

[BritCard]

Yes, but the defense was extremely poor against the run and we're set to be extremely poor in pass rush, too. I don't think it's realistic to expect much from the defense. That could improve, but we would have to invest significant high-end draft capital to do so, and I feel it is better spent on offense.

The run defense was actually 7th in DVOA. We just played a lot of good running teams. Although this was no doubt helped by several large leads that made teams abandon the run.

 

[juza76]

Nah, that's not an "elite measurable"

Yeah, the kid's a flat-out baller.

A mix between stephon Diggs and Emanuel Sanders

 

[kerouac9]

Yes, but the defense was extremely poor against the run and we're set to be extremely poor in pass rush, too. I don't think it's realistic to expect much from the defense. That could improve, but we would have to invest significant high-end draft capital to do so, and I feel it is better spent on offense.

This is fake news. The defense was 6th in total DVOA and 9th in weighted DVOA. We were 6th in rush DVOA.

The only place we were below average on Adjusted Line Yards was for runs off right tackle (23rd), which supports the argument that Markus Golden probably needs to play more disciplined or get fewer snaps.

 

[Stout]

The run defense was actually 7th in DVOA. We just played a lot of good running teams. Although this was no doubt helped by several large leads that made teams abandon the run.

This doesn't mean the run defense was actually good. It wasn't. Anybody watching those games could tell that any team dedicated to running against us would run against us, at will. VJ just didn't give a damn. It's his bend but eventually break defensive philosophy. Also, you say it here yourself, that our big leads helped a lot.

 

[Stout]

This is fake news. The defense was 6th in total DVOA and 9th in weighted DVOA. We were 6th in rush DVOA.

The only place we were below average on Adjusted Line Yards was for runs off right tackle (23rd), which supports the argument that Markus Golden probably needs to play more disciplined or get fewer snaps.

This is a fake news post. If DVOA has us as the 6th-best team against the run, then the stat is clearly broken. Our run defense absolutely sucked. Everybody knows it. Anybody that watched the games knows it. VJ doesn't care about trying to stop the run, and it showed, to our great detriment, later in the season when teams figured us out and ran it down our throats with wide-open running lanes, very few defensive stops, and long, excruciating drives.

It's simple. We're not good against the run. We're not BUILT to be good against the run.