Arenas KO returns and football analytics

[Russ Smith]

This comes up every weekend in the game threads so I thought it was interesting. We're all wondering why the hell Arenas keeps bringing out kicks and getting nowhere near the 20 yard line and not being benched for it?

turns out this is a league wide thing based on football analytics. Someone ran the numbers on the difference in predicted scoring if you down the ball and start at the 20, and if you take it out and are short of the 20. They then did the numbers on the odds of getting PAST the 20, or even scoring when you take it out. And they came to the conclusion that in most cases the odds dictate bring it out.

I submit the odds are wrong with the Cards, first anything inside about the 12 yard line and we're in danger of a safety. With Levi gone the safety odds decreased, you could always count on him getting a false start and moving the ball closer to the endzone. But still with our offensive issues starting anywhere near the 10 yard line scares me. Then you add in the frequency league wide of big returns called back for penalty.

But that's apparently why it's happening, the Bill James' of football stats have decided it makes sense and NFL teams are testing it. Will be interesting to see if they continue to do it.

 

[BigRedRage]

Being on the 20 gives you a lot more options vs being on the ten though. Beyond that, if you 3 and out its better to be near the 20 for your punt.

Maybe analytics show go for it but I think its dumb. Field position is vital and not only about scoring.

 

[Mulli]

So, the odds favor bringing it out, because there is no chance to get out past the 20 if you don't?

:brilliant:

 

[Russ Smith]

Being on the 20 gives you a lot more options vs being on the ten though. Beyond that, if you 3 and out its better to be near the 20 for your punt.

Maybe analytics show go for it but I think its dumb. Field position is vital and not only about scoring.

Yep the idea is the difference in anticipated result between say starting at the 12 vs the 20 is not negative enough to say just down it. You'll never pop one if you down them, and it's worth risking starting inside the 20 to get the occasional popped return.

My issue is I think it gives too much decision to the return guys, Arenas just doesn't seem smart enough(family thing) to say ok that kick hung up and was pretty deep, I probably ought to down it. Even when Stepfan Taylor is telling him to down it he brings it out.

But it's apparently by design, NFL teams want returners to try and break one.

 

[Russ Smith]

So, the odds favor bringing it out, because there is no chance to get out past the 20 if you don't?

:brilliant:

No that's only part of it. The odds of scoring aren't so much better from the 20 than say the 12, they're better, but not dramatically. So the downside of taking it out and being stopped short is not that bad they say. But the upside of taking it out and popping one is such that it's worth the risk.

I think maybe on some teams that's the case but on THIS team, with this OL and this QB, anything inside the 12 yard line and it's a terrible idea.

Especially when you add in we have a great punter and terrific coverage teams and a good defense. Much rather take it at the 20, not move the ball and punt and hope in the change of fields we can gain something or pin them deep etc.

 

[Mulli]

No that's only part of it. The odds of scoring aren't so much better from the 20 than say the 12, they're better, but not dramatically. So the downside of taking it out and being stopped short is not that bad they say. But the upside of taking it out and popping one is such that it's worth the risk.

I think maybe on some teams that's the case but on THIS team, with this OL and this QB, anything inside the 12 yard line and it's a terrible idea.

Especially when you add in we have a great punter and terrific coverage teams and a good defense. Much rather take it at the 20, not move the ball and punt and hope in the change of fields we can gain something or pin them deep etc.

Uh, this doesn't seem like new information.

 

[Russ Smith]

Uh, this doesn't seem like new information.

It's apparently why Arenas keeps doing it without losing his spot. Because the coaches actually want him to do it. I don't think they should I think we have 6 games of evidence he shouldn't.

But of course the first time he pops one it'll justify why the coaches want him to do it.

Point being people keep complaining about it but he's apparently doing what they want him to do, although I still say if Taylor tells him to down the ball and he brings it out, that's on him.

 

[earthsci]

Unless he is two or three yards deep, I wish that he would just down it.

 

[john h]

This comes up every weekend in the game threads so I thought it was interesting. We're all wondering why the hell Arenas keeps bringing out kicks and getting nowhere near the 20 yard line and not being benched for it?

turns out this is a league wide thing based on football analytics. Someone ran the numbers on the difference in predicted scoring if you down the ball and start at the 20, and if you take it out and are short of the 20. They then did the numbers on the odds of getting PAST the 20, or even scoring when you take it out. And they came to the conclusion that in most cases the odds dictate bring it out.

I submit the odds are wrong with the Cards, first anything inside about the 12 yard line and we're in danger of a safety. With Levi gone the safety odds decreased, you could always count on him getting a false start and moving the ball closer to the endzone. But still with our offensive issues starting anywhere near the 10 yard line scares me. Then you add in the frequency league wide of big returns called back for penalty.

But that's apparently why it's happening, the Bill James' of football stats have decided it makes sense and NFL teams are testing it. Will be interesting to see if they continue to do it.

Would not the stats be different each week depending on who you are playing and how good they are on special teams. Look at the stats for the team you are playing on returns and then base your decision on what your return man should do on that rather than an overall average?

 

[john h]

Unless he is two or three yards deep, I wish that he would just down it.

I could agree with that. Of course one has to recognize that the kick returner sees things we do not. He may think he sees a big hole so out he comes. I imagine some teams have the men blocking for him to tell him to not come out and he is supposed to do what he is advised by his blocker. As fans we see the entire field either on TV or in the stadium. The returner sees something a whole lot different and a whole lot less.

 

[Darkside]

No that's only part of it. The odds of scoring aren't so much better from the 20 than say the 12, they're better, but not dramatically. So the downside of taking it out and being stopped short is not that bad they say. But the upside of taking it out and popping one is such that it's worth the risk.

I think maybe on some teams that's the case but on THIS team, with this OL and this QB, anything inside the 12 yard line and it's a terrible idea.

Especially when you add in we have a great punter and terrific coverage teams and a good defense. Much rather take it at the 20, not move the ball and punt and hope in the change of fields we can gain something or pin them deep etc.

I don't disagree but I think they're looking at the wrong thing. Opponent field position is important, so the real measure is the odds of your opponent scoring when you punt from the 12 vs punting from the 20 etc. Kicking from inside your 20 almost guarantees 3 points for your opponent.

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[Russ Smith]

I don't disagree but I think they're looking at the wrong thing. Opponent field position is important, so the real measure is the odds of your opponent scoring when you punt from the 12 vs punting from the 20 etc. Kicking from inside your 20 almost guarantees 3 points for your opponent.

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Right that's supposedly taken in to this analysis though. That's why they actually would favor the Cards doing this. Because we have a good punter and excellent coverage so we can afford to take a risk and have to punt from deeper.

I don't agree with it at all. I think on some teams it makes sense, if I had Rodgers or Brady or Brees etc I'd do it. But on this team the closer we get to our own goalline only bad things happen.

 

[Darkside]

Right that's supposedly taken in to this analysis though. That's why they actually would favor the Cards doing this. Because we have a good punter and excellent coverage so we can afford to take a risk and have to punt from deeper.

I don't agree with it at all. I think on some teams it makes sense, if I had Rodgers or Brady or Brees etc I'd do it. But on this team the closer we get to our own goalline only bad things happen.

Understood--interesting nonetheless, thanks for sharing.


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[JeffGollin]

I don't disagree but I think they're looking at the wrong thing. Opponent field position is important, so the real measure is the odds of your opponent scoring when you punt from the 12 vs punting from the 20 etc. Kicking from inside your 20 almost guarantees 3 points for your opponent.

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Also a factor is how good (or bad) a team's offense is when pinned inside the ten. Evidently, ours isn't very good. This makes running back deep kicks riskier than it would be for some other teams (whose QB's and RB's protect the ball better).

Stats provide useful info, but can also mislead because they assume the context is identical for all teams and it's not. Team talent varies. Opponents (& when you play 'em) vary. Crowd noise (& how QB's deal with it) varies. And so on.

 

[earthsci]

I could agree with that. Of course one has to recognize that the kick returner sees things we do not. He may think he sees a big hole so out he comes. I imagine some teams have the men blocking for him to tell him to not come out and he is supposed to do what he is advised by his blocker. As fans we see the entire field either on TV or in the stadium. The returner sees something a whole lot different and a whole lot less.

You're right but Arenas keeps seeing things that aren't there, or not seeing things that are. I don't know if I would care as much if someone else was back there but I honestly remember two returns that have gone beyond the 30. Maybe I have bad memory but it sure seems that way with this kid.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Unless he is two or three yards deep, I wish that he would just down it.

Personally it doesn't really matter to me if he is 2 yards deep or 7 yards deep. Either way he shouldn't bring it out if it hangs in the air too long. A line drive kick that is caught 6-7 yards deep is fine to return if it had a low hangtime. One thing that I have noticed is that it seems like teams will intentianally kick the ball up in the air and have it land about 2-3 yards deep, baiting the returner to take it out.

 

[BigRedRage]

http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-car.../arenas-weighs-decisions-when-returning-kicks

 

[CardsFan88]

That's why analytics is a crap shoot. It's a guess. It doesn't really mean anything. Just an easy way for idiots to pass the buck when it doesn't work out.

I was just following.....and you would have done the same.

It's absolutely pathetic.

Is there a spot for analytics? Sure. As something on the back page that doesn't really influence your decision. Too bad all forms of statistics are treated as some gold standard and used in every way that sane people teach you NOT to use them. They're supposed to be a tertiary double checker, NOT THE REASON YOU DO SOMETHING.

Now it may be a stretch to think the Cards are doing it because of what the analytics state, but if they are, they are certifiable morons.

JA needs to put that knee down. He has single handedly put this offense in a horrible situation numerous times. It's actually probably the #1 thing that frustrates me with this team this season...above all else.

What's worse is that even if some moron people decided to follow the analytics, they are too inept to notice that there isn't even enough data to make a valid claim. It's not like the data is the same year after year after year. We only recently went back to this kickoff format, which means not only is the whole structure wrong, but whatever it tells you is based off a limited data set.

s/ But just remember, they know more because they make more then us. /s

 

[JeffGollin]

Analytics are like any other set of statistics - garbage in/garbage out. And what you do (& don't do) with those numbers.

My favorite example of the mis-use of statistics are cause & effect studies that tell you that a given food is good or bad for you. The implication is that it's all due to the chemistry in the food. But if, let's say, the study concludes that people who consume a small amount of red wine each day are less likely to have heart attacks, this could just as likely to be because wine drinkers are more social and have more outgoing relationships than those who don't imbibe (i.e. more social activities and not the ingrediants in the wine result in fewer heart attacks).

Numbers have value; just use them wisely.