Duke is #5 with 5 losses, and if they beat 'Cuse this week, I'll bet dollars-to-donuts the AP and Coaches have them leapfrog us even if we sweep Utah and CU. The Selection Committee will take our "W" against Duke into consideration, but for ranking purposes, it does not matter to the voters.
I still contend a resume that includes road wins against Michigan and SDSU and a neutral site win against Duke would be tough to ignore to push us back too far, even with 4-5 losses at the end of the regular season.
I get what you're saying but you have to remember seeding for the tourney one of the metrics they use is last 10 games. If UA finishes up with 4-5 losses, 3-4 of them would be in the last 10.
The other issue is the committee takes into account injuries, they admitted they dropped UCLA and gave the seed to UA last year because Adams was out, and it worked out to be the right move as UCLA got blown out in the first game. They will downgrade UA because they don't have Ashley, especially if they have 4-5 losses in the last 10 games, without him.
If get to the end with 2-3 losses they're a 1 for sure. 4 is doable if the other 2 losses are to good teams on the road. The thing is Colorado lost Dinwiddie so I'm not sure that's a good loss anymore, but that's probably the one of the 4 road games UA could lose without much penalty. Actually after looking I think anymore than 3 losses and UA drops out of contention for a 1, is looking at a 2-3. 4 losses goes 3-4 and 5 losses is 4-5.
I don't expect them to lose more than 2 more in the regular season, wouldn't surprise me at all if they go 5-1 or 6-0.
