Aytons rookie season

[Bufalay]

Emeka Okafor averaged 15 and 10.9 as a rookie. 13 and 10 in year 2.

 

[Phrazbit]

Emeka Okafor averaged 15 and 10.9 as a rookie. 13 and 10 in year 2.

He was also 22 and on a veteran laden roster.

 

[Mainstreet]

well, I think there's a solid amount of difference as far as scoring ability between a guy who scores 20 ppg and 24 ppg but even if you argued different, we're not looking at those two numbers in a vacuum.

we're talking about going from 16 ppg (with very little sign of upward trajectory toward the end of the season) to 24 ppg. That's a pretty big jump, IMO. Now, again, if we saw Ayton trending upwards towards season end, the way other big guys like Towns, Boogie and Davis did down the stretch of their rookie year, then maybe I could see that big of a leap. But that didn't happen. Anton's progress has been pretty stagnant all seasons... my biggest criticism of both he and Igor.

Hope to be proven wrong there, but time will tell...

There may not be enough basketballs for Ayton to make this jump next season with Booker, Oubre and the return of healthy veterans. Then there is free agency and the draft. The Suns scoring may be much more diversified next season.

I was sort of looking at it this way. If the Suns remained the same (of course there will be changes) and they added a point guard then I could see the jump. IMO, Ayton almost coasted to 16/10. I can only imagine if he had a point guard to get him the ball.

Both 24/12 and 20/11 are reasonable expectations based upon what we know now.

 

[AzStevenCal]

I'd be fine if Ayton basically maintained his current point and rebounds as along as he improves his intensity and defensive awareness. But I'm sure he'll eventually learn how to take over games, he clearly has the skills to do it.

 

[Mainstreet]

4 points per game is an enormous jump. It’s the difference between booker averaging 26 and 30 points per game this season. Enormous jump. And that wouldn’t even be the actual jump - that would be going from 15 to 24. That’s a jump of 9 points per game. You don’t think that’s much different from a jump of 5 points a game? Cmon man.

And increasing rebounding even by a single rebound per game is a big step. By two per game? It’s the difference between a 10% increase to a 20% increase in production.

Those are BIG differences.

I'm an optimist but I can see it happening based upon how the Suns use add Ayton next season and the addition of a distributing point guard.

It's not unreasonable to think both Ayton and Kokoskov improve as player and coach. Ayton averaging 24-12 is probably on the high end but it's hard to know what is possible because the Suns mostly functioned without a point guard this season.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

I'm an optimist but I can see it happening based upon how the Suns use add Ayton next season and the addition of a distributing point guard.

It's not unreasonable to think both Ayton and Kokoskov improve as player and coach. Ayton averaging 24-12 is probably on the high end but it's hard to know what is possible because the Suns mostly functioned without a point guard this season.

Eh, the fact that Ayton didn’t get to the FT speaks volumes to me. It has zero to do with a pg and everything to do with energy and want to. I don’t think a pg impacts that substantially. Ayton’s growth might account for 2 pts Igor’s growth for a point and a pg for 2. I think that leaves him at 19-20. Anything beyond is unexpected at this juncture because his lack of dog combined with little-to-no apparent growth over the season has greatly lowered my personal expectations for him.

 

[Mainstreet]

Eh, the fact that Ayton didn’t get to the FT speaks volumes to me. It has zero to do with a pg and everything to do with energy and want to. I don’t think a pg impacts that substantially. Ayton’s growth might account for 2 pts Igor’s growth for a point and a pg for 2. I think that leaves him at 19-20. Anything beyond is unexpected at this juncture because his lack of dog combined with little-to-no apparent growth over the season has greatly lowered my personal expectations for him.

If Ayton keeps improving I think we will all be happy.

 

[Ouchie-Z-Clown]

If Ayton keeps improving I think we will all be happy.

But there’s an important operative word there . . . it assumes this has already been happening. As cheese’s research indicates it hasn’t been happening. In fact it’s been the opposite as his numbers have regressed. The opposite of what we saw from other rookie bigs and from bagley, Trae and doncic this year alone.

 

[1Sun]

But there’s an important operative word there . . . it assumes this has already been happening. As cheese’s research indicates it hasn’t been happening. In fact it’s been the opposite as his numbers have regressed. The opposite of what we saw from other rookie bigs and from bagley, Trae and doncic this year alone.

Bagley, Young and Doncic all have coaches who know what the heck they're doing and who can get their points across to their players. Replace Igor with even an average coach, heck even a below-average Jay Triano type, and Ayton would blossom. Keep the historically bad Igor, and watch Ayton and others continue to regress.

 

[Sunburn]

Emeka Okafor averaged 15 and 10.9 as a rookie. 13 and 10 in year 2.

Okafor was not nearly as offensively gifted as Ayton.

 

[1Sun]

Okafor was not nearly as offensively gifted as Ayton.

He also had a bad back.

 

[Cheesebeef]

But there’s an important operative word there . . . it assumes this has already been happening. As cheese’s research indicates it hasn’t been happening. In fact it’s been the opposite as his numbers have regressed. The opposite of what we saw from other rookie bigs and from bagley, Trae and doncic this year alone.

and KAT and Davis during their rookie years as well.

the FT thing worries me, but looking at KAT and Davis, those numbers weren't great season 1 either.

 

[GatorAZ]

Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite 3pt shooter for his position. I’m starting to back away from that comparison. I don’t really see a good one currently. He’ll never be the facilitator Jokic is nor defensive juggernaut Embiid/Gobert are.

 

[AzStevenCal]

Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite 3pt shooter for his position. I’m starting to back away from that comparison. I don’t really see a good one currently. He’ll never be the facilitator Jokic is nor defensive juggernaut Embiid/Gobert are.

I can't find a great comp for Ayton, maybe LaMarcus Aldridge?

 

[Mainstreet]

But there’s an important operative word there . . . it assumes this has already been happening. As cheese’s research indicates it hasn’t been happening. In fact it’s been the opposite as his numbers have regressed. The opposite of what we saw from other rookie bigs and from bagley, Trae and doncic this year alone.

All solid points.

 

[BC867]

4 points per game is an enormous jump. It’s the difference between booker averaging 26 and 30 points per game this season. Enormous jump. And that wouldn’t even be the actual jump - that would be going from 15 to 24. That’s a jump of 9 points per game. You don’t think that’s much different from a jump of 5 points a game? Cmon man.

And increasing rebounding even by a single rebound per game is a big step. By two per game? It’s the difference between a 10% increase to a 20% increase in production.

Those are BIG differences.

Concerning scoring, in general, yes. But would a significant jump be a surprise if the two conditions that have existed this season are resolved?

Namely, as has been discussed, no true Lead Point Guard feeding him and Ayton spending too much time setting picks far outside, then having to work his way inside.

If Igor is still calling the shots next season, yes it would be large. If another Head Coach is, or if Igor has a revelation, it's a whole different ball game.

Regarding rebounding, with Ayton averaging 10.3 boards in 30.7 minutes in his rookie season, are two more rebounds per game in over 30 minutes out of the question?
Considering he'll be starting next season with a year's worth of experience and expected to bulk up to some degree.

Two additional rebounds per game sounds pretty do-able following a rookie season if he has good coaching. A skilled big-man coach would help, too.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Concerning scoring, in general, yes. But would a significant jump be a surprise if the two conditions that have existed this season are resolved?

Namely, as has been discussed, no true Lead Point Guard feeding him and Ayton spending too much time setting picks far outside, then having to work his way inside.

If Igor is still calling the shots next season, yes it would be large. If another Head Coach is, or if Igor has a revelation, it's a whole different ball game.

Regarding rebounding, with Ayton averaging 10.3 boards in 30.7 minutes in his rookie season, are two more rebounds per game in over 30 minutes out of the question?
Considering he'll be starting next season with a year's worth of experience and expected to bulk up to some degree.

Two additional rebounds per game sounds pretty do-able following a rookie season if he has good coaching. A skilled big-man coach would help, too.

Ayton does need to be fed the ball more. I do not agree about setting picks though. He needs to do it more and get better at it. Ayton sets half hearted picks. The result is that the pg does not get as free as he should get and then the roll does not work well. The pick and roll and pick and pop should be the bread and butter of Ayton's game. He is perfectly suited for it with that sweet mid range shot of his.

I assume he will get better at these things. Younger bigs always take time to develop. He has a nice foundation to work on.

As far as two more boards per game. It depends. If we add a legit pf this summer like Zion, he might actually get less boards. Zion will get some of his boards.

 

[BC867]

As far as two more boards per game. It depends. If we add a legit pf this summer like Zion, he might actually get less boards. Zion will get some of his boards.

Good point. But then, that will be good for the team.

But, of course, the odds are that we will not luck out again in the draft.

In which case, we'll need a strong PF to take that pressure off Ayton.

It is time for the Suns to put together a complete team, whatever that takes.

It has been a lousy decade!

 

[GatorAZ]

I can't find a great comp for Ayton, maybe LaMarcus Aldridge?

I was going to say an explosive Vucevic....

 

[sunsfan88]

According to Zach Lowe, DeAndre Ayton reportedly will not finish even top 3 in ROY voting.

Trae Young and Luka Doncic were obvious as they had better seasons but I’m curious as to who #3 will be.

 

[95pro]

According to Zach Lowe, DeAndre Ayton reportedly will not finish even top 3 in ROY voting.

Trae Young and Luka Doncic were obvious as they had better seasons but I’m curious as to who #3 will be.

Bagley

 

[dscher]

I can't find a great comp for Ayton, maybe LaMarcus Aldridge?

Poor man's Aldridge

 

[AzStevenCal]

Poor man's Aldridge

Are you comparing him at 20 years of age to Aldridge in his prime? If not, it's the other way around and by quite a margin. Ayton had a far superior rookie year than LMA.

 

[dscher]

Are you comparing him at 20 years of age to Aldridge in his prime? If not, it's the other way around and by quite a margin. Ayton had a far superior rookie year than LMA.

Aldridge now

 

[AzStevenCal]

Aldridge now

That works. But I'd hope that Deandre passes him by in a few years.