Bill Simmons's 2006 predictions

[gusmahler]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/060906

Of particular relevance to this board:

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To everyone who jumped on the "Cards are a sleeper" bandwagon over the past few weeks. First, it's not a sleeper anymore if everyone thinks it's a sleeper. You should know that by now. Second, it's the Cardinals -- they suck bettors and experts in every August and it's never worked out once. Third, everyone's missing the real sleeper in the NFC West because they're too busy ogling the Cards (more on this in a second).

And fourth, you realize that the Arizona QBs are Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart, right? Warner was washed up three years ago; Leinart lost me forever during the episode of "Punk'd" when the cops mock-arrested him and a friend for soliciting a prostitute, then agreed to drop Leinart's charges if he sold out his buddy … followed by Leinart incredibly agreeing to do so … followed by an ecstatic Ashton Kutcher leaping out of a van to tell him he'd been Punk'd. Does that sound like something a great QB would do? Would Tom Brady or Brett Favre EVER sell a buddy like that? No way. That show told me everything I ever needed to know about Matt Leinart's future as an NFL quarterback. Pencil them in for 6-10.
(See, that's the kind of hard-hitting analysis you just don't get from Peter King and the NFL Network.)

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To the poor Seahawks for battling two insurmountable curses at the same time: The Super Bowl Loser Curse (no 21st-century Super Bowl loser has ever bounced back to win even eight games) and the Madden Cover Jinx (which replaced the SI Jinx in terms of relevance, cultural impact and undeniable consistency). And that's before we mention Steve Hutchinson's departure, Mike Holmgren's constant complaining about the officiating in Super Bowl XL (yeah, like the refs won't be holding a grudge), a brutal slate of road games (including K.C., Denver, Chicago, Tampa and the Detroit/St. Louis domes), the depleted WR group and everything else. Would you want to be one of Shaun Alexander's anterior cruciate ligaments right now? Me neither. Pencil them in for 7-9. Do it. Do it right now.

My 2006 sleeper is … (drumroll please) … the Rams of St. Louis.
The explanation: Last year's team underachieved because of the ongoing Martz soap opera, Marshall Faulk's awkward situation and various injuries. The Rams have a fairly easy schedule that includes San Fran, Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay in the first five weeks, followed by a clash against rival Seattle at home in Week 6 (and Alexander's ACL should have exploded by then). They beefed up a lousy defense with three marquee free agents (Corey Chavous, La'Roi Glover and Will Witherspoon, who was great for the Panthers), drafted corner Tye Hill in the first round and hired Jim Haslett as their defensive coordinator. (Note: I like when teams hire former head coaches as coordinators, they're almost overqualified for the job).

The Rams have genuine firepower on offense (Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marc Bulger, even Kevin Curtis), as well as a new head coach, Scott Linehan, who worked under Nick Saban and seems exceedingly competent by all accounts. Throw in Seattle's inevitable collapse and the Rams absolutely REEK of sleeperdom. That's why I'm picking them.

 

[gusmahler]

If you don't know who Simmons is, he is formerly the "Boston Sports Guy", currently the "Sports Guy". He came to fame as a huge fan of Boston teams and later got an ESPN column. He writes from the generic "sports fan" perspective, as opposed to the insider perspective of most sports writers. He's gained quite a cult following. His column is featured on the front page of ESPN.com every week.

His basketball writing is decent. He's obviously a fan of the NBA and seemingly knows a lot about basketball.

His football writing isn't. It's almost completely devoid of any real analysis. This explains his knocking of Warner and Leinart without any analysis of their strengths or weaknesses. 6-10 is probably within the standard deviaion for ARI. 7-9 for SEA isn't. Most pundits think that SEA has a very easy schedule and will coast to the division title.

 

[MaoTosiFanClub]

Well, he is right in that the Cards do sucker a lot of people every August into calling them a sleeper. But he loses all credibility when he bases his take on Leinart's future on a TV program that he assumes is real when everty rational person in the United States can smell the BS and realizes it's completely set up.

 

[CardinalChris]

How does this guy know from interveiws and their play on the football field what Tom Brady and Brett Favre would do?

 

[jmr667]

This guy does not even try to be any sort of professional analyst. His stuff is strictly for humor purposes. Along with writing for ESPN he was also a writer for the Jimmy Kimmel show on TV. He is actually pretty funny once in a while.

Don't waste time trying to take him seriously though.

 

[TheCardFan]

Here is the video of Punk'd...

http://youtube.com/watch?v=VQwvqY1qa34

 

[arthurracoon]

wether you think he is right or not, he usually is pretty funny. And some of his yearly articles (top 40 untouchable NBA players, NFL playoff picks, etc...) are solid

 

[gusmahler]

wether you think he is right or not, he usually is pretty funny. And some of his yearly articles (top 40 untouchable NBA players, NFL playoff picks, etc...) are solid

He's usually an entertaining writer. And he usually knows his limitations. E.g., he doesn't try to do a serious analysis of the NFL because he doesn't know much about it. But he does do serious analysis of the NBA (and I think he's one of the better NBA writers out there.) (An aside, he thinks he knows poker and tries to write about it. He doesn't know anything about poker.)

It just ticks me off because he's dissing the Cards based on the same old stereotypes. And Warner is far from washed up. Anyone who watched Warner in the preseason knows that.

 

[JPlay]

Some of his theories actually have merit. Like the "Ewing Theory" and the SI cover jinx. These things may not have any basis in actual scientific fact, but they continue to be right. I think the Leinart thing is bull. Didn't he see him in pre-season.

Oh and also he's on the Patriots Nuttzz

 

[CaptTurbo]

umm if that wasnt punk'd and was a real situation I'd sell out my friwend too, He will get a fine in court. ill pay his fine and drop a quater mil on him for helping out.

No big deal to me.

 

[D-Dogg]

umm if that wasnt punk'd and was a real situation I'd sell out my friwend too, He will get a fine in court. ill pay his fine and drop a quater mil on him for helping out.

No big deal to me.

Ab-so-freaking-lutely

 

[abomb]

Ab-so-freaking-lutely

You're dead to me.

 

[D-Dogg]

You're dead to me.

If you stood to make 56 million dollars in the next month, and you had the opportunity to skate on my back on some bogus charge and you didn't do it, I'd punch you in the nuts so hard you'd fail steroid tests.

Let me take the fall, bail me out and give me a quarter million thank you present. FFS, when you roll with a superstar baller you have to expect that kind of scenario.

 

[abomb]

If you stood to make 56 million dollars in the next month, and you had the opportunity to skate on my back on some bogus charge and you didn't do it, I'd punch you in the nuts so hard you'd fail steroid tests.

Let me take the fall, bail me out and give me a quarter million thank you present. FFS, when you roll with a superstar baller you have to expect that kind of scenario.

This is why you are the brains of the operation.