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Every year dozens of mock drafts project players to teams on the basis of need. And every year NFL general managers do post-draft interviews where they swear up and down that the guys they took were on the top of their board and that they couldn't believe their luck that the guys were still there.
Everyone drafts for need but no one seems to want to admit it. There's good reason for that — no general manager has to apologize for taking the best guy on the board if it didn't work out, but if he passed over a player with a higher grade and that player turns into Anquan Boldin or Terrell Owens or (gulp), Tom Brady, then that GM has a lot to answer for. So teams will massage their boards to ensure that their picks will end up on top.
Fortunately, thanks to the Internet, it is possible for fans to independently verify the quality of their team's draft choices. A virtual cottage industry has sprung up around the draft, and ex-scouts and professional (and amateur) draftniks have flooded the web with scouting reports, mock drafts and player rankings. While there are always disagreements, there is a surprising degree of consensus that builds up about many of the prospects, so that examining these boards can provide a good impression of what the general perception was about these players on the eve of the draft.
In the next eight editions of Four Downs, we are going to examine every team's draft to see how it stacks up against a collection of major draft site boards. A player will be considered a steal if he was taken at or beyond the point in the draft that he was projected to go, and a reach if he was taken before that point. He will be considered a major reach or steal if he came off the board more than a round before or after he was slotted. We will also put up the best available player who was available at the time of the selection according to the independent draft boards.
Arizona Cardinals
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5590920 {There is a chart I can’t paste here}
Not every draft has a defining moment, a decision or sequence of decisions that profoundly alters the course of two franchises, but one such moment took place at the 9-10 junction of the 2006 draft. Detroit and Arizona were in some ways mirror images of each other. Both teams had invested heavily in their receiving corps. In recent years, Detroit drafted three wide receivers in the first round, while Arizona drafted two in the first and one in the second. Both teams spent the off-season throwing money at the quarterback position in an attempt to lock in at least competent play after years of below-average starters. Both teams had need of an impact defensive player. Both drafts were directed by men on the hot seat who could ill-afford to whiff on the pick. When Detroit was on the clock they opted for need, while the Cardinals took the best player on the board. When Lions fans are watching Matt Leinart hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2008, all of Matt Millen's wide receiver picks will seem positively benign next to this one.
Denny Green has been drafting BPA since he arrived in Arizona; his first three drafts are textbook examples of how to infuse a team with a base of young talent in a short period of time. By ignoring the composition of his roster and drafting based simply on player grades, he has netted quality young talent like Larry Fitzgerald, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Antrel Rolle, Eric Green, Elton Brown and Darryl Blackstock. This year, Green followed the same approach, and it's highly likely that this draft class will bear similar fruit. Leonard Pope and Gabe Watson were both considered late first round possibilities, but Green landed them in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. Both players have some issues — Pope is a poor blocker for a man of his size and does not run crisp routes, while Watson is notorious for taking plays off — but each one will step into the starting lineup and provide a tremendous upgrade in size and athleticism. (That Pope plays a position where Arizona had a huge hole is just an added bonus.) Jonathan Lewis and Todd Watkins could have come off the board in the fourth or fifth round, yet Green was able to nab them both at the back end of the draft. In all five of his seven selections were considered the best available player by at least one of the draft boards, and two of them were unanimously considered to
be so.
But it is the Leinart selection that will define this draft. Not unlike Carson Palmer before him, Leinart will be dropped into an offensive unit that is stacked at the skill positions. He is going to a quarterback-friendly system that suits his skill set, and will be playing for a coach who has shown himself willing to give young quarterbacks playing time if they earn it. He won't have to worry about inclement weather in any of his home games or any divisional away games. There has never been a rookie quarterback who has come into the league with the sort of on-the-job training Leinart has received — three years of excelling in a pro-style offense run by NFL coaches — and there have been few who have been put into as advantageous a situation. Arizona was on the rise anyway thanks to Green's astute eye for talent, but thanks to their draft class of 2006, they are poised to put their reputation as a laughingstock franchise to bed in much the way that Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay teams did in the late 90's.
Recent free agent moves
Arizona signed LB Mark Brown and P Fred Capshaw on May 4th. Brown, who played for the Jets over the last three seasons, had a career-high 65 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble last season. The former Auburn UDFA will bring much-needed depth to the Cardinals' linebacker corps. Capshaw was cut by the 49ers in their 2003 training camp.
Remaining team needs
Although Lutui was a good pickup, serious questions still abound as to the potential effectiveness of the Cardinal o-line. Leinart, in particular, will not be used to such a porous front five. That's the downside of the pro-level training he received at USC—he was also the beneficiary of a series of great offensive lines. Edgerrin James will also presumably feel the effects of running without Indy's line, ranked first by Football Outsiders in 2005 in Adjusted Line Yards. Arizona's success will be dependent, first and foremost, on this underachieving unit. Defensively, the secondary requires Antrel Rolle's return — but the 2005 first-rounder may need arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. This is the same knee that required meniscus surgery and forced Rolle to miss nine games in his rookie season.
Undrafted free agents of note
Arizona agreed to terms with ten undrafted free agents on May 4th. Perhaps the most
interesting talent is Georgia Tech receiver Damarius Bilbo. Bilbo played three seasons at wideout for the Yellowjackets, and enjoyed a career-high 40 receptions for 591 yards in 2005. He's also a lock for induction into anyone's NFL All-Name Team. Another receiver, Pitt's Greg Lee, will be reunited with former teammate Larry Fitzgerald, at least in the short term. Princeton CB Jay McCareins is the younger brother of Jets receiver Justin McCareins, and led Division I-AA with 9 interceptions, 20 passes defended, two interceptions for touchdowns and 236 interception return yards during the 2005 season.
Everyone drafts for need but no one seems to want to admit it. There's good reason for that — no general manager has to apologize for taking the best guy on the board if it didn't work out, but if he passed over a player with a higher grade and that player turns into Anquan Boldin or Terrell Owens or (gulp), Tom Brady, then that GM has a lot to answer for. So teams will massage their boards to ensure that their picks will end up on top.
Fortunately, thanks to the Internet, it is possible for fans to independently verify the quality of their team's draft choices. A virtual cottage industry has sprung up around the draft, and ex-scouts and professional (and amateur) draftniks have flooded the web with scouting reports, mock drafts and player rankings. While there are always disagreements, there is a surprising degree of consensus that builds up about many of the prospects, so that examining these boards can provide a good impression of what the general perception was about these players on the eve of the draft.
In the next eight editions of Four Downs, we are going to examine every team's draft to see how it stacks up against a collection of major draft site boards. A player will be considered a steal if he was taken at or beyond the point in the draft that he was projected to go, and a reach if he was taken before that point. He will be considered a major reach or steal if he came off the board more than a round before or after he was slotted. We will also put up the best available player who was available at the time of the selection according to the independent draft boards.
Arizona Cardinals
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/5590920 {There is a chart I can’t paste here}
Not every draft has a defining moment, a decision or sequence of decisions that profoundly alters the course of two franchises, but one such moment took place at the 9-10 junction of the 2006 draft. Detroit and Arizona were in some ways mirror images of each other. Both teams had invested heavily in their receiving corps. In recent years, Detroit drafted three wide receivers in the first round, while Arizona drafted two in the first and one in the second. Both teams spent the off-season throwing money at the quarterback position in an attempt to lock in at least competent play after years of below-average starters. Both teams had need of an impact defensive player. Both drafts were directed by men on the hot seat who could ill-afford to whiff on the pick. When Detroit was on the clock they opted for need, while the Cardinals took the best player on the board. When Lions fans are watching Matt Leinart hoist the Lombardi Trophy in 2008, all of Matt Millen's wide receiver picks will seem positively benign next to this one.
Denny Green has been drafting BPA since he arrived in Arizona; his first three drafts are textbook examples of how to infuse a team with a base of young talent in a short period of time. By ignoring the composition of his roster and drafting based simply on player grades, he has netted quality young talent like Larry Fitzgerald, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Antrel Rolle, Eric Green, Elton Brown and Darryl Blackstock. This year, Green followed the same approach, and it's highly likely that this draft class will bear similar fruit. Leonard Pope and Gabe Watson were both considered late first round possibilities, but Green landed them in the third and fourth rounds, respectively. Both players have some issues — Pope is a poor blocker for a man of his size and does not run crisp routes, while Watson is notorious for taking plays off — but each one will step into the starting lineup and provide a tremendous upgrade in size and athleticism. (That Pope plays a position where Arizona had a huge hole is just an added bonus.) Jonathan Lewis and Todd Watkins could have come off the board in the fourth or fifth round, yet Green was able to nab them both at the back end of the draft. In all five of his seven selections were considered the best available player by at least one of the draft boards, and two of them were unanimously considered to
be so.
But it is the Leinart selection that will define this draft. Not unlike Carson Palmer before him, Leinart will be dropped into an offensive unit that is stacked at the skill positions. He is going to a quarterback-friendly system that suits his skill set, and will be playing for a coach who has shown himself willing to give young quarterbacks playing time if they earn it. He won't have to worry about inclement weather in any of his home games or any divisional away games. There has never been a rookie quarterback who has come into the league with the sort of on-the-job training Leinart has received — three years of excelling in a pro-style offense run by NFL coaches — and there have been few who have been put into as advantageous a situation. Arizona was on the rise anyway thanks to Green's astute eye for talent, but thanks to their draft class of 2006, they are poised to put their reputation as a laughingstock franchise to bed in much the way that Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay teams did in the late 90's.
Recent free agent moves
Arizona signed LB Mark Brown and P Fred Capshaw on May 4th. Brown, who played for the Jets over the last three seasons, had a career-high 65 tackles, 1.5 sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble last season. The former Auburn UDFA will bring much-needed depth to the Cardinals' linebacker corps. Capshaw was cut by the 49ers in their 2003 training camp.
Remaining team needs
Although Lutui was a good pickup, serious questions still abound as to the potential effectiveness of the Cardinal o-line. Leinart, in particular, will not be used to such a porous front five. That's the downside of the pro-level training he received at USC—he was also the beneficiary of a series of great offensive lines. Edgerrin James will also presumably feel the effects of running without Indy's line, ranked first by Football Outsiders in 2005 in Adjusted Line Yards. Arizona's success will be dependent, first and foremost, on this underachieving unit. Defensively, the secondary requires Antrel Rolle's return — but the 2005 first-rounder may need arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. This is the same knee that required meniscus surgery and forced Rolle to miss nine games in his rookie season.
Undrafted free agents of note
Arizona agreed to terms with ten undrafted free agents on May 4th. Perhaps the most
interesting talent is Georgia Tech receiver Damarius Bilbo. Bilbo played three seasons at wideout for the Yellowjackets, and enjoyed a career-high 40 receptions for 591 yards in 2005. He's also a lock for induction into anyone's NFL All-Name Team. Another receiver, Pitt's Greg Lee, will be reunited with former teammate Larry Fitzgerald, at least in the short term. Princeton CB Jay McCareins is the younger brother of Jets receiver Justin McCareins, and led Division I-AA with 9 interceptions, 20 passes defended, two interceptions for touchdowns and 236 interception return yards during the 2005 season.
