Breakout Or Bust? A Look At Leandro, Boris, and House

[Dr. Dumas]

It also means you won't be getting much PT.

You are correct, if I was talking about 7-8 PG. But I was not. Someone is going to have to give Nash some rest regardless.

 

[Joe Mama]

I've read several posts talking about Barbosa's fast-break abilities as a positive. If you are talking about him stealing the ball and taking it quickly for an open layup I agree that he is good. If you are talking about him handling the ball in a 3-2 fast break I think he is below average. He reminds me of Tony Delk. There's almost no reason to guard the other players because you know Barbosa is going to go all the way to the basket. When he does pass it he usually waits too long or gives it to the wrong player.

My guess is that Barbosa looks about the same this season as he has over the last couple seasons. I was encouraged by a few pick and roll plays I saw him run in a summer league game though. Perhaps that's something he's been working on, and he'll surprise us.

BTW the general rule is that great summer leagues don't necessarily translate into good NBA play, but poor performances in the summer leagues (especially multiple flops) are an indicator that a player is not going to do much in the NBA. I'm not sure they'll works the same way in international play.

Joe Mama

 

[JCSunsfan]

PHX may/could/hopefully not be in a position mid-way through the season in which they need to go out and get a true backup PG.

To my surprise, the articles on hoopshype today about Payton going to Miami indicated that he had also had serious discussion with the Suns shortly before reaching his decision. I really don't think he would have been a good fit in Phoenix, but it is certainly true that the backup PG position is a huge question mark right now.

It looks to me like Phoenix and Miami were negotiating with both House and Payton at the same time. House was the prize, Payton the consolation.

I would think that once we signed House, we dropped out of the Payton talks, opening the way for Miami to ink him.

 

[fordronken]

While I agree that summer success often has no relation whatsoever to NBA success, it can. Nash, for instance, really took over for the Canadian national team one summer, if I remember correctly, and it gave him the confidence to come in the next year and really start his tear. Nowitzki did something very similar. Those were instances, however, of a really subpar team getting totally taken over by a player. France isn't exactly like that. It is, however, something Barbosa did to a degree. Players like Barbosa need confidence in some situation to start getting good in the NBA atmosphere. I'm not saying it happened, since he dominates every summer, but it could have.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

In essence, I think both Diaw and Barbosa still have a shot at being quality NBA players if the fans remain patient.
Actually, I doubt the patience of the fans has much effect at all.

I agree that they both still have a shot; my only point is that the ability to tear up other leagues doesn't say anything one way or the other about a player's NBA potential.

This is 100% accurate and irrelevant to fans. Most fans want Diaw to succeed because he is big and athletic and it would in some small way give credence to the JJ trade. So far this is a summary of why Daiw will succeed.

1. Played well for Team France
2. Is athletic and big
3. Played on a bad teams and lost confidence

the only argument I can buy is that he has better players around him will showcase his athletic talents, but mainly having Nash on the court with him certainly will give him the best chance to gather easy buckets and open looks. The others are not indicators on how well he will do IMO.

1. Paraphrasing elindholm, playing well in post NBA season leagues has rarely been a great indicator of NBA season success. I can't say how much I agree here, fans often get excited when a player does really well against subpar talent often the assumption is that it directly translates to the the highest levels of competition. This is often seen in the 4th quarter of NFL football games when players tear up 3rd string talent, then fans are shocked as to why that player struggles when the real NFL season starts..I see this as a parallel to the NBA offseason leagues. I am pretty sure Leandro was the summer league MVP or at least one of the top players, look how his season ended.

2. Being athletic and big is a nice building block, but again hardly any reason to expect success. I can only judge him on his stats and video I have seen and he looks just ok to me.

3. Playing on a bad team should have yielded him more PT yet he often found himself on the bench, if he was so good then I doubt Atlanta would have given him up with a smile on their faces. Atlanta is a bad franchise but even they were surprised the Suns asked for Daiw. I just hope the same scout who jonesed for Tim Perry isn't the same one handpicking Boris.

This Suns team is too good to baby a player through this season and give him big minuets, look at Leandro's season last year as an example, D'Antoni loses confidence on his marginal players quickly, if you are not making a contribution then you are on the bench... I will also point out Leandro found the bench rather easily last season on a shallow team; One thing we can all agree on is this team has a lot of depth at the swing positions. This much is for certain to me, if Boris wants to make that big impression and play, he needs to do it early and consistently on both ends or he will find his playing time at the end of blowouts.
Leandro has been in the system and my guess is coach will favor that at least at first, so my second guess is that Barbosa gets the first shot at significant PT, if he produces early I suspect he will get the majority of the minuets off the bench over Daiw as I have serious doubts that both will receive significant minuets night in and night out. Therefore, I think Leandro has the best chance just by default, and if he understands this is his last chance here.

Im going to address your concerns tree.....(being that your glass is always half empty )

1. Yes it is never a true indicator of how a player is doing to look at preseason or offseason results. However, have you considered the alternative. If Diaw was playing poorly, there would be almost no chance of his being able to contribute this season, as if he cant excel against the "lesser" comp, then what hope would he have against the NBA talent. I look at Parker as it seems this guy has been in a downward spiral pretty much half way through last year. His poor performance is not an indicator that his poor play will carry over into the season, but Spurs fans can't feel too good that their starting PG is looking just plain worn down. He does have a lot less to prove then Pietrus and Diaw so that is a possible factor.

Another point to counter what you are saying is that Euro play is MUCH better than summer league play. While not the same quantity of talent there are plenty of NBA guys playing and check out the games were Bobo matched up with AK47 and Okur. He was actually matched up against these guys and he absolutly posterized Kirilinkeo. Thats nice to see. Its not like the places this guys play in are like the sterile NBA arenas. He has shown alot of mental toughness (FT's aside, but im looking more at his % from last year as an indicator) to go into Serbia's home court and knock them off. To that point im not sure Joe in his earlier stages would have risen up to that type of challenge.

2. Im going to make this point and for future reference this is what guides my thought process on how good i think NBA players are (see my Top 10 NBA players thread from waaaaaay back) The taller you are the less skilled you have to be to be successful. This is what hurts Barbosa and House in my mind. While i would counter that both of them have more "Game" than Diaw, you cant teach height and wing span. Diaw has more room for error. This is what makes guys like Spud Webb and AI so good, becuse in terms of actual skills, they are some of the best bball players ever. If AI was 6'6 he would be compared favorably to MJ. I truly believe that, and i hate the player.

Now Joe was tall but i think he lacked Diaw's athletic ability. Diaws size and athleticism will make him at the very least a good defender and an excellent rebounder. We are all just hoping his shot develops, and then he could feasibly entirely replace Joe. I wouldn't look for that this season however. Lets just say he has a good foundation to work with.

3. I can't hear this argument ever again. NOTE: Rules of logic do not apply to the Hawks or Clippers. Lets look at some reasons:

- This team has a plethora of swingmen. Childress, Josh smith and Al Harrington all play this guys position (as it is obvious his PG play has not been allowed to develop due to lack of game time)

-All those guys are bigger names with higher draft positions and that plays a HUGE roll in who gets PT.

-Diaw is a quiet french men. How easy is it for a coach with no eye for talent and no ability to develop said talent to let that guy waste away on the bench? Very easy. I have read stories that Diaw was a bit of a malcontent but that sounds like spin from a woebegone franchise to me. Dude's quiet and so was Joe. If JJ was traded to the Hawks from the Celtics, I guarantee he would have never turned into the player he is now. They would have stuck his a$$ behind "chillz" and "smoove" and his confidence would have been shot. Joe owes our team quite a bit in terms of his getting that 70 mill.

-Mike woodson is a first time coach and Billy Knight is tied with Baylor as the worst GM's in basketball. Their ineptitude is staggering and its safe to say they are not getting the most out of ANY of their players.

-The style of play is a huge factor as well. Notice where Boris is playing well? Yeah its in the euro tournament. Euro = Wide open and running n gunning. Guess what NBA team plays the same style of ball and ALSO has a coach who understands international stars and international style of play better then anyone? and if you guessed the Mavericks you are only half right..... (as Donnie Nelson has an good feel for international guys as well)

-I read a stat that Atlanta has not drafted an All-Star since like 1976. But many times they have taken the player that is the consensus pick at their drafting position. So what gives? They cant develop players (sensing a theme here). Smoove and Chillz had excelled (and i use that term lightly) INSPITE of their bosses. They will probaly become all stars for some other team any way.

Atlanta was surprised because they have no idea what they had. "An athletic 6'8, ball handling, passing 1,2, or 3? What the heck are we going to do with that?" says Billy Kniight. As i have said about Joe, those guys dont exactly grow on trees. And i have enough confidence in our coaches that if the guy has the drive, they will get him to maximize his potential. like i said im not sure what he can bring to the table this season, but im actually happy we got him instead of "Chillz" because i think with the right coaching, Diaw has more upside......

 

[elindholm]

It looks to me like Phoenix and Miami were negotiating with both House and Payton at the same time. House was the prize, Payton the consolation.

This is a joke, right? I guarantee you Pat Riley is not saying, "Oh hell, Phoenix snapped up House, now we're going to have to settle for Payton." Even at his advanced age, Payton is five times the point guard that House is. House may be able to carve out a niche for himself as an undersized shooting guard, but those are a dime a dozen among fringe NBA players.

 

[JCSunsfan]

This is 100% accurate and irrelevant to fans. Most fans want Diaw to succeed because he is big and athletic and it would in some small way give credence to the JJ trade. So far this is a summary of why Daiw will succeed.

1. Played well for Team France
2. Is athletic and big
3. Played on a bad teams and lost confidence

There's a straw man argument if I ever saw one. Put words in "fan's" mouths and then judge the motives for it.

1. The only fan's who've really paid any attention to Diaw are the message board die-hards who somehow feel constrained to talk about basketball in August, when most of the players and coaches are'nt even talking about it much.

2. The Sun's message board fans are talking about Diaw because HE'S THE ONLY PLAYER ON THE SQUAD WHO IS PLAYING ANYWHERE RIGHT NOW!

3. His performance in Europe is a pleasant surprise (look at Darko). Certainly its no guarantee whatsoever how he will perform here, but if he were averaging 10 mins. 2 pts. .5 rebs. etc. we would KNOW that he CAN'T play here. So, at least, the door is open.

4. There is a 4th reason why Suns fans are harboring some hope that Diaw will succeed--and it is the most important one. The Sun's scouting staff has been high on him since before he was drafted. They--to Atlanta's surprise--demanded Diaw in the JJ s&t when the Atlanta brass were expecting they would demand one of the Josh's. Now it may be that the Suns scouting staff isn't so high on him as much as they are unimpressed with the Josh's--but we've been around this management group long enough to realize that they often see things (correctly) in players that other's don't.

5. I think, as I have read on this board and others, that most people want Diaw to succeed (we're fans after all), most think there is a possibility that he might succeed (a greater possibility that he could fail), and if he does its just a bonus from the JJ trade--not anything essential to making it seem successful.

 

[JCSunsfan]

It looks to me like Phoenix and Miami were negotiating with both House and Payton at the same time. House was the prize, Payton the consolation.

This is a joke, right? I guarantee you Pat Riley is not saying, "Oh hell, Phoenix snapped up House, now we're going to have to settle for Payton." Even at his advanced age, Payton is five times the point guard that House is. House may be able to carve out a niche for himself as an undersized shooting guard, but those are a dime a dozen among fringe NBA players.

Sorry, its not a joke. With bench players you are looking at physical ability, ability to stay healthy, play multiple positions, lockerroom presence etc. I would rather have House than Payton and would expect the same with Miami--although the difference is not huge. Riley really likes House, who has played for him before.

Pg skills vs. pg skills, I think Payton is the better player, but he is declining quickly. The other factors--along with the Suns running style of play, make House a better choice.

Both would be bench warmers most of the time.

 

[elindholm]

Now it may be that the Suns scouting staff isn't so high on him as much as they are unimpressed with the Josh's--but we've been around this management group long enough to realize that they often see things (correctly) in players that other's don't.

I think it's a good point, but unfortunately it's also worth pointing out that the Suns' draft record is pretty poor over the last few years. Besides Stoudemire, they've taken Jacobsen, Cabarkapa, Barbosa, and Vroman, all of whom have been relative disappointments for their draft positions (except maybe Vroman). It could well be that when they think they see something that other teams don't, they're wrong.

 

[se7en]

It could well be that when they think they see something that other teams don't, they're wrong.

Well they weren’t wrong when they traded for (saw raw talent in) Joe Johnson. And Barbosa for all of his flaws is still better than most players drafted with the last pick in the first round. And Cabarkapa was finally showing improvement for the Warriors with increased playing time. You might be able to make a case for Jacobsen. But even that is debatable since he wasn’t really a high draft pick either. There are many worse players who were taken before him. I think the Suns have the right mind set with lower first round draft picks. You’re lucky to get anything better than a bench warmer most of the time so you may as well role the dice on a flawed player with the hope that they may end up being something more than average. It doesn’t always work but it’s a better plan than filling your roster with bench warmers you could just as easily sign through free agency.

Now you might try to make an argument that Jacobsen ruins my theory about taking a flyer on a player that may end up being better than average. But I would disagree. I think he was looked at as someone who might have developed into a deadeye 3 point shooter like a Kerr, Barry or even Horny. There was a chance that he could have become one of those players and it was worth a shot. It’s not as if there were a bunch of players with All-Star potential available with that pick.

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Now it may be that the Suns scouting staff isn't so high on him as much as they are unimpressed with the Josh's--but we've been around this management group long enough to realize that they often see things (correctly) in players that other's don't.

I think it's a good point, but unfortunately it's also worth pointing out that the Suns' draft record is pretty poor over the last few years. Besides Stoudemire, they've taken Jacobsen, Cabarkapa, Barbosa, and Vroman, all of whom have been relative disappointments for their draft positions (except maybe Vroman). It could well be that when they think they see something that other teams don't, they're wrong.

Completly disagree.....You have to weigh costs and benefits when drafting in the lower half of the first round. Jacobson was a calculated risk wwho they felt could develop into athree point specialist. They were banking on his high production in college to translate into spot success in the NBA. However they drafted him with a role for him in mind. STAT was obviously the difference maker they drafted that year.

Cabarkpa was playing very well before Fortson destroyed his mind by fouling him. It has taken a while but if you watch Zarko in Golden State games (which i have watched about 7-8 from last year)it looks like dumping him will turn out to be a mistake not to far down the line. It is obvious Mullin and Monty are high on him and he will get lots more PT this year. Just because the national media has not picked up this fact does not mean its not true. Drafting him where they did, it was a calculated risk again with his skill sand size he has boom or bust potential. Thats all u can hope for in the latter half of the first round (and go ahead and bring up all the success stories from guys drafted 15-30 and i will show you ten more from that same draft who didn't make it.

Barbosa is playing as well as you could hope the last player of the first round would play. He has shown flashes and in his third year now, he could possibly develop into a solid contributor. Look back at guys also drafted in that position and i bet many are fringe players or not even in the NBA.

Vroman. Once again a defined role. Hustle guy off the bench. And they were right.

Also remember the suns intended to draft Iggy before they traded the pick, and he has turned out to be a coup for the sixers

You cant underestimate the suns talent evaluation. While Marion, Nash, Finley, and STAT all seem like no brainers now, the Suns were going against conventional wisdom at the time. I read an article about 6 months ago extolling the Suns as the second or third best drafting team in the last ten years. The writer even stated in the article he gained more respect for their scouting department after doing the actual research.

Eric, if you are expecting all-stars every year in the second half of the 1st round, you are kidding yourself. Every guy available at that time is a risk and no one gets rotation players drafting where we have EVERY YEAR. The Suns have done well in getting Wes. Person, Nash, and Finley in the spots they did when 90% of other teams get no where near the production of those kind of picks. Do the research and i guarantee it will bear it out (start from three years ago) The suns have been lauded in their ability to get players late and a couple guys not turning into top 7-8 players of a team is not that big a deal. Now if the Suns were drafting top 10 every year you might have a case, but every time they do get a pick that high, they either trade it away (Deng) or hit the freaking jackpot (Marion, STAT) Really i couldn't disagree with you more.....

 

[Arizona's Finest]

Well they weren’t wrong when they traded for (saw raw talent in) Joe Johnson. And Barbosa for all of his flaws is still better than most players drafted with the last pick in the first round. And Cabarkapa was finally showing improvement for the Warriors with increased playing time. You might be able to make a case for Jacobsen. But even that is debatable since he wasn’t really a high draft pick either. There are many worse players who were taken before him. I think the Suns have the right mind set with lower first round draft picks. You’re lucky to get anything better than a bench warmer most of the time so you may as well role the dice on a flawed player with the hope that they may end up being something more than average. It doesn’t always work but it’s a better plan than filling your roster with bench warmers you could just as easily sign through free agency.

Now you might try to make an argument that Jacobsen ruins my theory about taking a flyer on a player that may end up being better than average. But I would disagree. I think he was looked at as someone who might have developed into a deadeye 3 point shooter like a Kerr, Barry or even Horny. There was a chance that he could have become one of those players and it was worth a shot. It’s not as if there were a bunch of players with All-Star potential available with that pick.

Posted just after you....exactly my point...........

 

[elindholm]

Eric, if you are expecting all-stars every year in the second half of the 1st round, you are kidding yourself.

Ugh, settle down. I didn't say the picks were terrible. I think that over the last FEW years -- so before Marion and the famous run of mid-round steals -- the Suns have been probably an average drafting team. I supported the gambles taken on Jacobsen, Cabarkapa, etc. then, and I support them now, even though they didn't pan out.

My point, which I'll state again, is that it's not all that convincing to portray the Suns brain trust as seeing things that other teams don't. They're playing guessing games and rolling the dice, just like everyone else. So I'm not all that impressed that they were interested in Diaw two years ago -- in fact, it strikes me as pretty much irrelevant.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Over the past 10 years, who has drafted better than the Suns? Just curious.

I can't think of ANYONE who, cumulatively, has a better record. Four all-stars in 10 drafts is not bad.

Michael Finley
Steve Nash
Shawn Marion
Amare Stoudemire

 

[se7en]

Over the past 10 years, who has drafted better than the Suns? Just curious.

I can't think of ANYONE who, cumulatively, has a better record. Four all-stars in 10 drafts is not bad.

Michael Finley
Steve Nash
Shawn Marion
Amare Stoudemire

Especially amazing considering that the Suns never even sniffed one of the top 3 picks where franchise players are usually found.

 

[JCSunsfan]

Especially amazing considering that the Suns never even sniffed one of the top 3 picks where franchise players are usually found.

I guess its actually eleven drafts (to the present) but in 3 of those years, the Suns had no pick at all. So that's 4 all-stars in 8 drafts in which the Suns held a first round pick.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Over the past 10 years, who has drafted better than the Suns? Just curious.

I can't think of ANYONE who, cumulatively, has a better record. Four all-stars in 10 drafts is not bad.

Michael Finley
Steve Nash
Shawn Marion
Amare Stoudemire

You are missing the point here. There is no doubt that the Suns are one of if not the best drafting team of the past decade when you consider value of a pick.

Eric's point is that in the last 3 years, the magic touch has faded. They aren't the Raptors, but they aren't doing anything special either.

The biggest reasoning for this is JCs lack of involvement. From what I am told he was amazing at picking people out during workouts, and the only time he missed in the last decade was Mario Bennett.

JCs last real active draft was in 2002 when Amare was taken. Since then his involvement has significantly decreased.

 

[panfolk]

Just curious as you guys might know but what was Chapman's involvement in these last few years of gamble picks and could that be why he isn't here anymore? Who spotted Diaw years ago? JC?

Also you gotta figure that young Euros with raw potential (i.e. speed, length) get bumped up a few spots by speculation inflation so Cabarkapa was really only worth a second round pick or maybe a late late first round pick. I agree that he is going to pan out for GS I think the change of venue and the harshness of a trade might be what switched his brain from the quasitragic season destroyer that breaking your shooting wrist could be into something of a fresh state. After all he might've been focusing on what a dissappointment he was to the Suns who knows with foreign value systems. Anyhow Barbosa's real worth is probably a second rounder if he had college behind him but his raw potential is phenomenal and it's too early to give up on him. My biggest concern with him is that he isn't much of a fighter (like Zarko) and is more of a thrive on success type that needs a kick start. Who knows? Maybe his international game will inspire him a bit. Anyhow they weren't bad gambles at all. I really hope we don't trade Barbosa before he is an UFA and I still wish we had kept Zarko (even though it might not have been best for him) and I still like Vroman as a neo-Outlaw ith more potential. Casey I have to admit I couldn't care less about having back. That pains me a little really because he works so hard it's difficult not to like him. I'm sure somebody will call me a homer, but I do want to sign Robinson and Vroman back (yes I know Robinson may not have been their choice had they kept their picks) or at least that they go to the Sonics, Blazers, or Warriors. My personal top 10 teams has Phoenix in the top 7 positions and those three tagging along for the ride. I can't stand the Knicks but may have to watch them a little to see how Nate pans out.

Anyhow how sure are we that the Suns brass demanded Diaw? I haven't seen it on press releases (or may have missed it). I think their scouting of him may say a lot. I think others have made good judgements on how Diaw could have been overlooked by Atlanta. I think the mentality of playing under a Euro experienced coach in a free flowing system where your talents are going to be exploited rather than having to be a dynamic one on one player to get recognition may make for success for him. Dunno. It just feels right. I'm thinking the PG position may not work out (though I dearly hope it does) but that the Suns will be able to get good use out of him regardless.

House is my big questoin mark really. I don't see how he fits. Maybe I'm blind. Anyhow the evidence shown hasn't proven how he can be point to me... Luckily I'm not in charge. As a three pont shooter I think we are better off getting that from the wings than from the distributor. The create his own shot part would imply he looks for it first like Barbosa most likely. Or does he actilvely distribute. The only thing my limited knowledge compares him to is a Bobby Jackson type livewire to throw in when things go awry and our strategies aren't working. That could be useful really. I don't see him getting more development attention than Barbosa and Diaw because of the aforementioned lack of upside compared to those two.

Really I hope Diaw wins because I don't like Barbosa/Marbury style point guards to watch. I like unselfish points, explosive wings, and finesse big men. Amare's fun to watch but I'm really looking forward to the addition of KT.

 

[thegrahamcrackr]

Anyhow how sure are we that the Suns brass demanded Diaw?

I am very very sure that the Suns were extremely interested in Diaw from the moment Atlanta was linked to Joe Johnson.

It has been reported that they have been interested since he was in the draft.

 

[panfolk]

cool. Thanks.

 

[Errntknght]

I can't believe no one has brought up the name of Percudani when it comes to the Suns drafting acumen. He was widely acknowledged as the prime mover behind the drafting for several years until he died about four years ago, which means that Nash, Finley and Marion were all taken on his watch. Before him the Suns were not particularly good and Amare is the only thing keeping them from being second rate since.

I don't give the Suns any credit for good drafting because they were contemplating Iggy - they didn't judge the whole situation correctly. My guess is they wouldn't have drafted him because he was most noted for his defense and the Suns haven't used a pick on a defensive stalwart since 1988 (Marjele).

I don't really follow the draft much nor other teams but it seems to me that you have to give the Spurs top marks for drafting and otherwise acquiring players in the last few years. Nesterovic and 'Big Dog' are the closest they've come to missteps and they haven't really hurt them. (Naturally, I'm hoping that van Exel and Finley prove to be more damaging acquisitions.)

 

[elindholm]

I can't believe no one has brought up the name of Percudani when it comes to the Suns drafting acumen.

I would have if I could have remembered it. I was going to say something like, "I thought there was some guy who was supposed to be a really good talent evaluator and retired a few years ago," but it sounded too lame, so I kept quiet.