Here it is: The 3 guys that can beat us--Duncan, Manu and Parker.
1) Tony Parker: Put Marcus Banks on him. Tell Marcus to not worry about offense and just make Tony work for every single thing he does, whether that's shoot or pass. Make him exhausted and not able to run the Spur offense.
2) Manu: He had a good Game 3, but single coverage with Raja seems to be working, so don't change it.
3) Duncan: DOUBLE, DOUBLE, DOUBLE! This is where James Jones becomes extremely valuable. Help KT when Duncan is down low, and let Marion roam to get more of those blocks from behind he seems to have patented in this series.
These strategies give Nash, LB and Marion the freedom to really run the Spurs ragged. Will D'Antoni do something like that? I think he'll go with Point 2 and maybe Point 3, but Point 1? Probably not. But if you have Marion and KT playing the big guys, Raja on Manu or FInley (whoever is in), and Nash on Bowen, that's a pretty solid job. Let Shawn school Oberto and Elson pretty much at will. He certainly won't have to worry about disrupting Amare from doing anything in the paint. And it's not like our pick-and-roll was working very well anyway.
This is a game we can win, especially since we'll be at home with hopefully a very hostile crowd.