How sure can you be about the bolded above? Both Nick Foles and Sam Bradford had career seasons for Chip Kelly and got significant contract extensions on the basis of those performances. Heck, Mark Sanchez got a $9M contract after a year in Kelly's system.
It's quite possible that Kaepernick in the Kelly offense can cobble together a 4K yard season with 30 TDs rushing and receiving and San Fran is forced to pick up another year on the deal.
I can't find any confirmation that Philly's mos def taking a QB, although there could be writers filing those stories as we speak.
Kapernick's flaw is his ability to process information fast. That's why he's been so bad on his later progressions. He gets lost like bad QB's do mentally.
This flaw was hidden with Harbuagh's system which simplified the offense, and put him in space. If he found an opening, he could run, if a guy was wide open, it was an easy throw.
The problems really began when they took the training wheels off and asked him to mentally do more.
That's why at times he was making throws like Ryan Lindley. It's not that he's inaccurate per se. It's that timing wise he was doing things he mentally cannot handle at the NFL level. So the net effect is, he is inaccurate, because mentally he cannot handle it.
Now as I've said before, if Kapernick has a chance to get back to his previous form, his best shot is with a strong defense and a system that limits his exposure to his flaws. That's exactly what Kubiak's system of boots and rollouts would do.
Chip Kelly's offense by contrast is very mentally tough. It's about having three plays called and reading the defense to know which play is actually going to be run, and then recognizing that the other players know what's up and having the timing down to go through progressions and complete passes on time.
That system seems to be built off the part that is Kaepernick's biggest flaw. What Kelly especially needs most, Kaepernick is worst at.
I also don't think the running plays will help him stay healthy. Kaepernick had three offseason surgeries, so the hits might be starting to get to him. How much he's lost, if any, we don't know, but I'd rather take a Kubiak 40 yard wide open rollout until he gets out of bounds, to a series of 5-15 yard runs out of Kelly's offense where he risks getting hit in the middle of the field.
If I can make a rudimentary comparison. If on a scale of 1-10, Harbuagh's offense was a 4, and last year he sucked at say a 7, he's really going to struggle with Kelly's which is like a 10.
He can hit wide open guys. He can run like the wind. But put all this in motion and it's too much. Think of it like old videogames, where each level got faster and faster. At some point everyone hits a limit and they just can't handle it. A good NFL QB can go to much higher levels then he can.
So I don't expect him to improve, if anything I expect him to regress. Of course he can have a good run here, hit a guy wide open there, but consistently, I don't see it, not in this offense. But even if he just sucked as bad as last year, he would not be worthy of them keeping him at that salary as a backup QB. Additionally as long as they keep him on the roster practicing and/or playing they risk having to fully pay the guarantees for 2017 and 2018 built into the contract. One wrong play this preseason and they could be on the hook for the next 2-3 years capwise AFTER this year.
So he's basically guaranteed this year unless he gets injured, and with the Broncos he'd be getting less this year but an extra year at a salary more realistic to keep him on, in a system that he should be much more likely to produce in.
Sam Bradford has flaws, but one of them isn't a lack of an ability to go through his progressions and make decisions fast and pretty accurately. He's 10x Kaepernick on that note imo.
