I think we can all agree this is officially no longer a “re-tool” but a “rebuild”. I want to pose a serious question...Can a team actually go from the doghouse to the penthouse in one season? And if so, how does a team actually do it.
It’s early, but it appears the Browns may have effectively rebuilt in 1 season. Their early picks have started and played well so far (Mayfield looks like the real deal). They aggressively went after high profile players in free agency (Landry led the league in receptions last year. Hyde has been a quality starting RB in this league) and they made a switch in management (new GM - John Dorsey)
I’d love to hear your specific thoughts on how you think the Cardinals can become a perennial playoff team beginning next season. What are the next steps? What’s priority #1? What positions must the Cards address? Do they need to make changes in management?
Good and relevant post, Josiah!
Going from the doghouse to the penthouse happens, and for some teams the transformation lasts all the way to the Super Bowl, and last year the Eagles even won it. It does take some pretty big changes, though, and here I won’t get into more detailed changes.
Using 2014 as the basic, only three teams in the entire league went from a losing record in 2014 to a winning record in 2015. All three of them made the playoffs, and Carolina managed to get to the Super Bowl before they lost. The other two were beaten in the Wildcard Round.
Seven teams went from a losing record in 2015 to a winning record in 2016, and five of them made the playoffs. Four of them were eliminated in the Wildcard Round, while the last one were beaten in the Divisional Round.
The following season seven teams with losing records in 2016 managed to get a winning record in 2017, and six of them made the playoffs. Three of them lost in the Wildcard Round, one of them were eliminated in the Divisional Round, one of them lost in the AFC championship game, and the last one won the Super Bowl.
In 2014 two of the teams had second year head coaches while the third had a veteran coach.
In 2015 three of the teams had rookie head coaches while one had a second year coach.
In 2016 four of the teams had rookie head coaches while one (the one that won it all) had a second year head coach.
It seems pretty clear to me that a new head coach can go a very long way in making the transformation from one year to another as seven of the 17 teams had rookie head coaches. Four times a second year head coach has done it, including the one going all the way to win the Super Bowl.
Interestingly enough, the team with the biggest swing in the win-loss-column from 2014 to 2015 was the Carolina Panthers going from 7-8-1 to 15-1, and they actually didn’t change that much. The head coach was the same (Ron Rivera in his 5th year), the coordinators were the same (Sean McDermott in his 4th year and Mike Shula in his 3rd), and the quarterback were the same (Cam Newton in his 5th season). They re-made their offensive line, and they changed a player here and there, but other than that it was pretty much the same team.
From 2015 to 2016 Dallas Cowboys had the biggest swing, going from 4-12 to 13-3. Like the Panthers the year before, Dallas had the same head coach (Jason Garrett in his 6th season), the same coordinators (Scott Linehan in his 2nd season and Rod Marinelli in his 3rd season), but the personnel had changed some. Dak Prescott was the new quarterback, and Ezekiel Elliot was the new focus of the offense. The defense was more or less the same.
From 2016 to 2017 two teams had a seven game swing – the Jaguars from 3-13 to 10-6, and the Rams from 4-12 to 11-5. Both teams had new head coaches, but while the Jaguars’ two coordinators was in their second seasons with the team, the Rams also had new coordinators. On the Jaguars’ offense the biggest changes were runningback Leonard Fournette and left tackle Cam Robinson, while on the defense it was defensive lineman Calais Campbell and cornerback A.J. Bouye. The Rams had a new full-time starter at quarterback, two new cornerstones on their offensive line, two new top receivers, while not much changed on the defense.
I don’t really know what to take from this as there obviously is no blueprint to follow. Sometimes teams with veteran head coaches make big swings in the win-loss-column from year to year, and sometimes teams with rookie head coaches does it. Sometimes the coordinators are the same, sometimes both the coordinators and the personnel is changed. I guess one important lesson is that all four teams have had very good offensive lines, and key offensive acquisitions has been essential for three of the teams.
It’s also important to note that these big swings from one season to another doesn’t simply happen over one offseason. With Carolina they were 12-4 in 2013 with much of the same personnel, while the Cowboys were 8-8 in both 2012 and 2013, and they were 12-4 in 2014. So, while they had down-years, much of the core of the teams had been built over several years.
Even the Rams did win seven games in 2012 and 2013, before they won six in 2014, and seven again in 2015, so it wasn’t like they had been destroyed for years. Going back to 2015 several players on their offensive line was the same in 2016, 2017, and is the same now, their primary offensive weapon has been the same for four straight seasons, two of their defensive tackles have been the same, some players from the secondary have been the same. I know that some wants us to believe that the Rams got good overnight, but the reality is that it doesn’t happen that way in the NFL. Continuity matter.
