Can someone explain to me Geno?

[NashDishesDimes]

Can someone please explain to me why Geno is not a franchise QB? I am not saying he is one, I just keep hearing everywhere that he is not worthy of a top pick but I have never herd anyone give a reason why. I read just as many draft articles as the next guy and I have yet to see one good analysis of Geno's game. What are the guy's weaknesses?

Im starting to think that the draft is a bandwagon of epic proportions. If one analyst goes on TV and say that Geno is not a franchise QB, then the 5,000 people that herd it, go around and say he is not a franchise QB.

Marcus

 

[Dr. Jones]

Wildly inconsistent accuracy down the field. Sometimes great, sometimes Scud-like.
Major reliance on short throws and long runs (inflating his stats).
Hasn't stepped up in big moments.
Average velocity on deep throws. No major zip.
His lean build scares me a bit.
I have not seen very good pocket footwork or awareness. This scares the hell out of me.


IMO he is a borderline top 20 prospect and would be an enormous reach anywhere above #15. Could we hit the lottery? Sure. Are there better options to bet on? Hell yes.

 

[JeffGollin]

Home-made Definition of a Franchise QB:

Can someone please explain to me why Geno is not a franchise QB? I am not saying he is one, I just keep hearing everywhere that he is not worthy of a top pick but I have never herd anyone give a reason why. I read just as many draft articles as the next guy and I have yet to see one good analysis of Geno's game. What are the guy's weaknesses?

Im starting to think that the draft is a bandwagon of epic proportions. If one analyst goes on TV and say that Geno is not a franchise QB, then the 5,000 people that herd it, go around and say he is not a franchise QB.

Marcus

A franchise QB is someone you can slot into the starting QB place on your depth chart and feel comfortable that he'll be The Man for at least 5 or 6 years - & further, that he will take the team into the playoffs more often than not. You plug him in, turn over the keys and let him do his thing.

It's not that Geno can't be that guy; it's that we don't know if he'll be that guy - certainly not well enough to make him a #7 draft pick. His body of work simply hasn't been consistent enough in various areas of play to make many coaches trust his ability to deliver game in and game out. Contrast this with the feeling of confidence most people had in Luck and to a somewhat lesser extent, Barkley.

The tricky thing about evaluating Geno are that his best skills are different from the traditional skills most coaches want in a starting QB - He can run in the 4.5's (maybe the emergence of the option-read will make that skill more desirable) and he's the King of Checkdowns, but one other trend seems to be moving in the direction of passers who are consistently accurate pushing the ball downfield and on deep routes. Not that he can't or won't master those skills; it's just that he's not surefire to do so, and this makes him less safer as high as #7 and a better investment, perhaps at 32 (or maybe #38)?

My guess - Chip Kelly might view Geno as the ideal fit for his uptempo offense,

 

[Jetstream Green]

Geno has all the tools. Can be insanely accurate. I think he throws a beautiful deep ball and really can read the defense more than some give him credit for. Oh yeah, he also crumbles in his ability to play the position when he does not have a clean pocket to throw out of...that is my problem with him but by the same token that is something which possibly could be coached, toughen his mentality.

 

[bg7brd]

The way I see it, there's not a big gap between Smith and another QB that we can get in the 2nd. Would anyone be be really shocked if Smith was a bust and EJ Manuel became a solid starter? Take the closest thing to a sure bet with Warmack and get a QB in the second.

 

[Jetstream Green]

The way I see it, there's not a big gap between Smith and another QB that we can get in the 2nd. Would anyone be be really shocked if Smith was a bust and EJ Manuel became a solid starter? Take the closest thing to a sure bet with Warmack and get a QB in the second.

So very true. Heck, EJ Manuel has more of a body of work and probably more physical skills in probably a more conventional offense than Smith. Who knows, but we all know the risk with a guy like Warmack is far less and we need OL help as much as a QB at the moment.

 

[Shane]

So very true. Heck, EJ Manuel has more of a body of work and probably more physical skills in probably a more conventional offense than Smith. Who knows, but we all know the risk with a guy like Warmack is far less and we need OL help as much as a QB at the moment.

Care to back that up with anything concrete?

 

[Jetstream Green]

Care to back that up with anything concrete?

Sure anytime, by body of work, I mean a body of work that translates more to the pro game in my opinion that one can judge rather than the gimmick offense Smith ran. Manuel is also taller and weighs a lot more than Geno and is more solidly built along with the athletic traits they still both share. The point is is that there really might not be much seperating these two QBs and it would not be shocking to see either one fail or succeed. That is the point, there is really no clear cut idea that should make Geno a run away top ten pick but the others not if one wants to accept that Geno is that good. I feel all the QBs are 2nd round talent with not much seperating them. You bet a second rounder can possibly become a franchise QB, but this draft is hazy towards deciding who in my opinion

 

[Dr. Jones]

Care to back that up with anything concrete?

Before we get into intangibles which are inherently based on eyes and opinions, let's just look at the college production.

Geno:
2012 - 71% comp - 8.12 ypa - 42td - 6int - 163.9 rating.
2011 - 65.8 comp - 8.34 ypa - 31td - 7int - 152.6 rating.
2010 - 64.8 comp - 7.43 ypa - 24td - 7int - 144.7 rating.

EJ:
2012 - 68% comp - 8.77 ypa - 23td - 10int - 156.0 rating.
2011 - 65.3 comp - 8.57 ypa - 18td - 8int - 151.2 rating.
2010 - Didn't play enough to warrant consideration here.

I don't see anything here that says Geno is that much better than EJ. Throws shorter passes for a higher percentage. Longer passes tend to be riskier so EJ has a few more TO's.

Geno benefited from some of the highest Run after catch yardage stats in the college game last year. And had a receiving staff of much higher quality than EJ.

I don't see any clear winner in this evaluation. Do you Shane? What concrete things have you found?

 

[Vermont Maverick]

So very true. Heck, EJ Manuel has more of a body of work and probably more physical skills in probably a more conventional offense than Smith. Who knows, but we all know the risk with a guy like Warmack is far less and we need OL help as much as a QB at the moment.

Manuel was recruited by Chip Kelly at Oregon. If Philly does not take Geno in the First, I believe Manuel goes to Philly in the Second. We need to trade ahead of them if we have interest.

 

[Reddog]

My biggest issue with him is that he never recovered from the drubbing he took from Texas Tech. He went on to lose the next four and then didn't really post in his bowl game. Even if he has the physical tools you better know what his emotional state is before you make him your top ten franchise QB.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Before we get into intangibles which are inherently based on eyes and opinions, let's just look at the college production.

Geno:
2012 - 71% comp - 8.12 ypa - 42td - 6int - 163.9 rating.
2011 - 65.8 comp - 8.34 ypa - 31td - 7int - 152.6 rating.
2010 - 64.8 comp - 7.43 ypa - 24td - 7int - 144.7 rating.

EJ:
2012 - 68% comp - 8.77 ypa - 23td - 10int - 156.0 rating.
2011 - 65.3 comp - 8.57 ypa - 18td - 8int - 151.2 rating.
2010 - Didn't play enough to warrant consideration here.

I don't see anything here that says Geno is that much better than EJ. Throws shorter passes for a higher percentage. Longer passes tend to be riskier so EJ has a few more TO's.

Geno benefited from some of the highest Run after catch yardage stats in the college game last year. And had a receiving staff of much higher quality than EJ.

I don't see any clear winner in this evaluation. Do you Shane? What concrete things have you found?

Honestly didn't realize their stats were this close. Another thing I would point out is the fact that even with all that YAC yards that Geno benefitted from he still had a lower YPA than EJ. I haven't seen too much on EJ, how good is he on deep throws?

 

[Brian]

My problem with Geno is he was never asked to dissect a defense from the line. The plays weren't called in the huddle. WV goes to the line, the coaches look over the defense and send in the play from the sideline.

I know Cam Newton did that at Auburn, but Geno didn't torch SEC competition like Cam did.

No way do I hand over a franchise to a QB who was never asked to do that in college.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

I think if he makes it to the 7th pick than that says all you need to know about him. Because if he is good enough a team will either draft him in front of us or will trade up in front of us to take him. Not saying it is proof that he won't be good, but it would show what the league in general thinks of him.

 

[Bodha]

Passing up on a shot on the best QB in the draft for Scrub Stanton makes me sick.

If its not this year, itll just be Manziel or Bridgewater next year. We should go after a potential franchise QB for once rather than continue to go through recycled losers.

Theres no Lucks in this draft. There wont be for another 10 years so everyone quit expecting all the QBs in every draft to be the next Joe Montana. They all have pros, they all have flaws.


as for Genos analysis -

Cons -

Footwork isnt great
Inconsistent
Struggles if play isnt there
Needs to improve pocket presence

Pros -

One of the best deep ball QBs ive ever seen (BAs offense is strongly downfield oriented)
Very accurate when hes on point (goes back to consistency.)
His offense puts up alot of points
Rarely throws picks (good decision making)
Solid character guy


I think Geno is a franchise QB. Flaccos never been a superstar and he just won a superbowl. Alex Smith isnt special and he fluorished with the coaching change in SF. Geno is better then both those guys coming out of college. If he were in last years draft, hed be the 3rd QB taken after Luck and RG3. Hes solid.

But we will pass on him and go into the year with Stanton and another 5-11 awaits us. Should be fun

I think if he makes it to the 7th pick than that says all you need to know about him. Because if he is good enough a team will either draft him in front of us or will trade up in front of us to take him. Not saying it is proof that he won't be good, but it would show what the league in general thinks of him.

Kaepernick, Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady say hi

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

Passing up on a shot on the best QB in the draft for Scrub Stanton makes me sick.

If its not this year, itll just be Manziel or Bridgewater next year. We should go after a potential franchise QB for once rather than continue to go through recycled losers.

Theres no Lucks in this draft. There wont be for another 10 years so everyone quit expecting all the QBs in every draft to be the next Joe Montana. They all have pros, they all have flaws.


as for Genos analysis -

Cons -

Footwork isnt great
Inconsistent
Struggles if play isnt there
Needs to improve pocket presence

Pros -

One of the best deep ball QBs ive ever seen (BAs offense is strongly downfield oriented)
Very accurate when hes on point (goes back to consistency.)
His offense puts up alot of points
Rarely throws picks (good decision making)
Solid character guy


I think Geno is a franchise QB. Flaccos never been a superstar and he just won a superbowl. Alex Smith isnt special and he fluorished with the coaching change in SF. Geno is better then both those guys coming out of college. If he were in last years draft, hed be the 3rd QB taken after Luck and RG3. Hes solid.

But we will pass on him and go into the year with Stanton and another 5-11 awaits us. Should be fun




Kaepernick, Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady say hi

He won't be there at 7. If he is there at 7 than that means that the 6 teams in front of us (a few of which could use QB help) decided he wasn't worth it and quite a few teams behind that also need a QB felt he wasn't good enough to trade up a couple spots to get him either. Again not saying he won't be good (personally I think he will be), but you have to question what is wrong with him if the best QB in he draft doesn't go in the top 6.

 

[AZ Native]

Hopefully he will go before 7

 

[Krangodnzr]

Before we get into intangibles which are inherently based on eyes and opinions, let's just look at the college production.

Geno:
2012 - 71% comp - 8.12 ypa - 42td - 6int - 163.9 rating.
2011 - 65.8 comp - 8.34 ypa - 31td - 7int - 152.6 rating.
2010 - 64.8 comp - 7.43 ypa - 24td - 7int - 144.7 rating.

EJ:
2012 - 68% comp - 8.77 ypa - 23td - 10int - 156.0 rating.
2011 - 65.3 comp - 8.57 ypa - 18td - 8int - 151.2 rating.
2010 - Didn't play enough to warrant consideration here.

I don't see anything here that says Geno is that much better than EJ. Throws shorter passes for a higher percentage. Longer passes tend to be riskier so EJ has a few more TO's.

Geno benefited from some of the highest Run after catch yardage stats in the college game last year. And had a receiving staff of much higher quality than EJ.

I don't see any clear winner in this evaluation. Do you Shane? What concrete things have you found?

Honestly didn't realize their stats were this close. Another thing I would point out is the fact that even with all that YAC yards that Geno benefitted from he still had a lower YPA than EJ. I haven't seen too much on EJ, how good is he on deep throws?

The stats AREN'T that close. Geno's worst year passing he was still better than EJ's best year.

Sure EJ's YPA is higher, but compare yardage totals and attempts. I would do the leg work but my internet connection isn't great over here so I'll let others do that comparison.

If you delve deep into EJ Manuel, you will also find that he didn't play in a traditional offense, and for the most part, threw to his first read nearly every play. I've seen enough footage of Geno checking down to his second and third read to know that this talk of him throwing to his first read is bunk. Sure, he threw in a spread offense, but Geno has enough longer attempts to show he definitely has a passing deep ball.

On youtube there is a nice little compilation made by a Chiefs fan that shows some of the positives of Geno. Check it out and you'll walk away impressed with him. I doubt we take him but I would be happy with him as the #7 overall.

 

[CardsSunsDbacks]

The stats AREN'T that close. Geno's worst year passing he was still better than EJ's best year.

Sure EJ's YPA is higher, but compare yardage totals and attempts. I would do the leg work but my internet connection isn't great over here so I'll let others do that comparison.

If you delve deep into EJ Manuel, you will also find that he didn't play in a traditional offense, and for the most part, threw to his first read nearly every play. I've seen enough footage of Geno checking down to his second and third read to know that this talk of him throwing to his first read is bunk. Sure, he threw in a spread offense, but Geno has enough longer attempts to show he definitely has a passing deep ball.

On youtube there is a nice little compilation made by a Chiefs fan that shows some of the positives of Geno. Check it out and you'll walk away impressed with him. I doubt we take him but I would be happy with him as the #7 overall.

Let me rephrase than. I didn't realize that his completion percentage was that good. Pretty much right there with Geno. The higher YPA would indicate that he is pushing the ball down the field more than Geno and we know it's not because he was benefiting from YAC more than Geno was.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Let me rephrase than. I didn't realize that his completion percentage was that good. Pretty much right there with Geno. The higher YPA would indicate that he is pushing the ball down the field more than Geno and we know it's not because he was benefiting from YAC more than Geno was.

Possibly that he is pushing the ball downfield more, but he also had over 100 less attempts last year, which could also push his ypa DOWN since many times that tends to be the case.

The glaring difference is that Geno is more experienced, threw less picks and a lot more TDs.

I actually like both as prospects, but I don't think we'll get a shot at EJ in the second round unless we trade up, and at this point I question why we would waste draft capital to trade up since we're rebuilding right now.

 

[Chopper0080]

I have been critical of Geno Smith for a couple reasons, but one of the things, which I haven't seen mentioned so far, that has reinforced my feelings on him is the Chiefs.

I believe most would agree that Andy Reid knows QBs. He has been fantastic throughout his career developing QBs and getting the most out of their skills.

Also, the Chiefs have a pretty solid roster and obviously have used free agency to fill most of the holes they have had.

The one hole the Chiefs had on their roster and was the contributing factor to their record in 2012 was at QB. Coaching also had a part in it, but QB was the overwhelming hole on the Chiefs roster

Finally, the Chiefs hold the number 1 pick in the draft. Prior to FA, everyone knew they were going to cut Matt Cassel and were going to have their pick of all the players coming out this year with their number 1 pick.

So, the natural thought was the Chiefs would use the number 1 pick on the best QB in the draft and Andy Reid would coach him up like he has done with several QBs throughout his career which would solve their Qb situation. Also, due to new NFL rules, the pick would not be cap restrictive as the salary would be already set as a bit over the 4 mil Andrew Luck made last year. This was a no brainer especially when you consider the lack of top of the draft talent in this draft. That QBs name is Geno Smith.

So, did the Chiefs stand pat, prepare to use their number 1 pick to draft Geno Smith, and fill the rest of their roster issues through FA and with their high 2nd round pick?

No, the Chiefs instead traded away that high 2nd round draft pick to trade for Alex Smith. The initial thought was it was done to get solid QB play for less money than what the Chiefs would have had to pay Geno Smith (a little over 4 mil). That proved to be false as the Chiefs instead would pay Alex Smith 8.5 mil in 2013.

So the big question for me is why would the Chiefs trade a very valuable draft pick and pay twice as much money(8.5 mil) to acquire Alex Smith when they could just stand pat, keep their high 2nd round pick, get the top QB in the draft in Geno Smith for a pretty cheap contract(a bit over 4 mil), and let Andy Reid develop Smith like he has done to several QBs in the past?

The answer to that question would seem to be because Andy Reid, QB guru, didn't see enough in Geno Smith to believe he could develop him to produce better numbers than Alex Smith. to me, that is very telling.

 

[slinslin]

The answer to that question would seem to be because Andy Reid, QB guru, didn't see enough in Geno Smith to believe he could develop him to produce better numbers than Alex Smith. to me, that is very telling.

What a bunch of BS. The only thing it tells me is that KC wanted a veteran QB that could play right away and is low risk. And Alex Smith plus whoever they draft #1 is probably better to them that Geno Smith and whoever they would have drafted in the 2nd round.

Please tell me again what QB Guru Andy Reid though of Kevin Kolb or the amazing QB play of the Eagles in the last 6 years.

 

[john h]

Can someone please explain to me why Geno is not a franchise QB? I am not saying he is one, I just keep hearing everywhere that he is not worthy of a top pick but I have never herd anyone give a reason why. I read just as many draft articles as the next guy and I have yet to see one good analysis of Geno's game. What are the guy's weaknesses?

Im starting to think that the draft is a bandwagon of epic proportions. If one analyst goes on TV and say that Geno is not a franchise QB, then the 5,000 people that herd it, go around and say he is not a franchise QB.

Marcus

Fans are sure of the herd mentality as are reporters. One or two guys report someone as the next superstar and soon a giant turnaround is made in draft predictions. No matter how you look at it drafting is a gamble. There are no sure things. Think of the money lost when you make a wrong call in the first ten picks? How much did Leinart or Kolb set us back in the long run. Not just in money. One year, two years, three years? These guys were back to back losers of epic proportions. Is it any wonder we are a team in trouble? GMs with outstanding judgement in selecting players are more valuable than gold.

 

[john h]

The way I see it, there's not a big gap between Smith and another QB that we can get in the 2nd. Would anyone be be really shocked if Smith was a bust and EJ Manuel became a solid starter? Take the closest thing to a sure bet with Warmack and get a QB in the second.

I would not be shocked at all. Any QB in any draft is a gamble. At the start of the year Smith was not being mentioned much at all. He was just another college QB who had good result and who met some of the physical requirements we place on QBs. Now as we near the draft he is the best thing since sliced bread but is still the same Geno Smith that started the year and played in college. I was shocked to see Wilson and Keperneck end up the year as outstanding starters in the NFL. I knew next to nothing about them at the draft last year.

 

[john h]

Geno has all the tools. Can be insanely accurate. I think he throws a beautiful deep ball and really can read the defense more than some give him credit for. Oh yeah, he also crumbles in his ability to play the position when he does not have a clean pocket to throw out of...that is my problem with him but by the same token that is something which possibly could be coached, toughen his mentality.

So much of the value of a QB depends on his brain and ability to function and read under pressure. We just cannot accurately measure that.