Cap Issues Ahead for Cardinals?

[ARZCardinals]

As the Cards stand today they are $9 million OVER the cap.

I have no idea how the Cards are going restructure or move Larry without HUGE HUGE issues. IMO it's either bite the bullet and take the hit now...or put a medium sized leak in the boat and let it last 2-3 years.

I don't see the Cards being able to keep Cromartie...and that's gonna suck

Keim has his work cut out still cleaning the crap contracts left over from Graves.

 

[BigRedMO]

Cut Fitz and long way down the road to problem being solved.

 

[CardsFan88]

You have to remember that with the new-ish CBA deal, and how they BACKLOAD the cap increases, the cap is going to be moving up 15-20 million a year for the rest of the CBA. Could it come in a little lower like 12 million, perhaps. But it's big cap jumps every year from now until the end of the CBA.

They had small increases the first couple of year, and last year we saw the first decent sized jump. But the jumps are accelerating.

Basically by the end of the CBA expect the cap to be in the 200-225 million range or so. They have to hit a certain percentage of revenues, and they low ball it early to make sure they hit the revenues from the owners perspective.

They hit those, and even exceeded it, plus the newer small tv deals, like CBS getting Thursday night football.

So yeah, I'm not worried about the cap, even with Fitz. Even if we do nothing, the cap increase will literally take care of Fitz's cap hit increase. Of course then we'd be hamstrung in other areas, so it's really not as big of a deal as people are thinking.

Of course, we could end up doing something drastic with Fitz/Dockett so we can really sign a bunch of people in the value way we've been doing so. But we're not even going to be up against the cap with those contracts. Again, cap wise we're not nearly in as big of a predicament as people are thinking.

 

[kerouac9]

I wish the title of this thread were "cap issues" and not "money issues." I thought that there was news that the team was experiencing some kind of cash-flow problem.

As to the OP, I don't think that the cap problem is great enough to merit this concern trolling. The Fitzgerald contract is going to resolve itself by March 15 or so. Darnell Dockett's contract situation will be resolved before then, in all likelihood.

No, Antonio Cromartie is not coming back. If that causes you heartache, you didn't learn anything from the Karlos Dansby experience.

 

[dreamcastrocks]

I wish the title of this thread were "cap issues" and not "money issues." I thought that there was news that the team was experiencing some kind of cash-flow problem.

As to the OP, I don't think that the cap problem is great enough to merit this concern trolling. The Fitzgerald contract is going to resolve itself by March 15 or so. Darnell Dockett's contract situation will be resolved before then, in all likelihood.

No, Antonio Cromartie is not coming back. If that causes you heartache, you didn't learn anything from the Karlos Dansby experience.

Edited title. Makes more sense. I thought that Bidwills will having money troubles before I clicked....

 

[BigRedRage]

I wish the title of this thread were "cap issues" and not "money issues." I thought that there was news that the team was experiencing some kind of cash-flow problem.

As to the OP, I don't think that the cap problem is great enough to merit this concern trolling. The Fitzgerald contract is going to resolve itself by March 15 or so. Darnell Dockett's contract situation will be resolved before then, in all likelihood.

No, Antonio Cromartie is not coming back. If that causes you heartache, you didn't learn anything from the Karlos Dansby experience.

CRO can go, he shied away from tackles too many times for my taste. I don't like finesse pansy football players.

and yes we are fine with the cap once we iron out a few small things. but to be fair, if people dont have an addiction to following every bit of information that leaks about the team, maybe people dont understand the moves that are coming to free the room up.

I have that addiction. All is well.

 

[Chopper0080]

We won't have enough to go on a spending spree, but we will be able to re-sign the players we want back, and add a piece or two. A lot of things which will be resolved prior to the start of free agency as stated above.

 

[WildBB]

You have to remember that with the new-ish CBA deal, and how they BACKLOAD the cap increases, the cap is going to be moving up 15-20 million a year for the rest of the CBA. Could it come in a little lower like 12 million, perhaps. But it's big cap jumps every year from now until the end of the CBA.

They had small increases the first couple of year, and last year we saw the first decent sized jump. But the jumps are accelerating.

Basically by the end of the CBA expect the cap to be in the 200-225 million range or so. They have to hit a certain percentage of revenues, and they low ball it early to make sure they hit the revenues from the owners perspective.

They hit those, and even exceeded it, plus the newer small tv deals, like CBS getting Thursday night football.

So yeah, I'm not worried about the cap, even with Fitz. Even if we do nothing, the cap increase will literally take care of Fitz's cap hit increase. Of course then we'd be hamstrung in other areas, so it's really not as big of a deal as people are thinking.

Of course, we could end up doing something drastic with Fitz/Dockett so we can really sign a bunch of people in the value way we've been doing so. But we're not even going to be up against the cap with those contracts. Again, cap wise we're not nearly in as big of a predicament as people are thinking.

I think many don't realize this when talking about Fitz contract.

A few teams may even have to shell out stupid money for players who don't deserve it, just to meet salary requirements. I would hope they'd at least take care of their own.

 

[kerouac9]

I think many don't realize this when talking about Fitz contract.

A few teams may even have to shell out stupid money for players who don't deserve it, just to meet salary requirements. I would hope they'd at least take care of their own.

I dunno. CF88 should cite a source or something. The consensus seems to be that the salary cap is going to be about $140M next year.

 

[CardsFan88]

As a little additional clarification, what the CBA says (or as it was reported to say), is that the players get a AVERAGE percentage of revenue through the course of the CBA.

I don't remember off hand what the exact percentage was, but say for argument it is 60 percent. So 60 percent of revenue average over the CBA must be given to players.

Now, if you go through the logic of this, coupled with how they kept it flat (or almost flat) for 2-3 years, what that means is the following...

They got far less then 60 percent those years, they need to get up to 60 percent, and then the last couple of years they need to go OVER 60 percent, to get it to average 60. (remember the 60 is whatever number they agreed to in the CBA, might be 55 or 58 or whatever).

So they took it conservative early on, and since then they added additional revenue, so the numbers have to get up there and the only way for that to happen is for some big jumps year after year. Also since the entire pie is growing from merchandise and other, the percentage has to keep up with this growing pie.

It's just like the NBA, where right now is the best time to sign people long term, because the cap increases that are going to occur in the near term will make the contracts even the highest end guys sign look like they are mid-tier talent in a couple of years.

If you know your salary cap is basically going to come close to doubling in the next 6-7 years, there is a massive opportunity to stack talent in the front end, be in a superior situation on the back end, and be able to weather another potential flattening period the first few years of the next CBA.

In the near term, very few teams will be in cap hell. So just about everyone is going to be a spender, which is going to push up contracts massively. In the medium term, some teams are going to misallocate this space and waste this opportunity, and on the back end, some of these teams will be back in cap hell. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on the back end. Such a steep increase and then a sudden stop in increases will play major havoc to some on the back end. Those who fill it wisely on the way up, will once again be in a buyers market. At least that's how I see it playing out. Of course nothing is set completely in stone. There are outside factors that could significantly influence revenue for the NFL, but if everything stays on track, I think it will play out like this.

 

[gmabel830]

We had the same problem last year and things worked out just fine.

 

[CardsFan88]

I dunno. CF88 should cite a source or something. The consensus seems to be that the salary cap is going to be about $140M next year.

Well something should be on ASFN, it was discussed on one of the threads talking about the CBA negotiations.

The main point to understand is that it's 'average revenue' over the course of the CBA. So they lowball it early, and then make it up on the back end. Because the increases in revenue aired game over aired game were so massive, plus additional revenue streams, the increases are going to be massive.

I'll try to find something, but it's been a while.

 

[kerouac9]

As a little additional clarification, what the CBA says (or as it was reported to say), is that the players get a AVERAGE percentage of revenue through the course of the CBA.

I don't remember off hand what the exact percentage was, but say for argument it is 60 percent. So 60 percent of revenue average over the CBA must be given to players.

Now, if you go through the logic of this, coupled with how they kept it flat (or almost flat) for 2-3 years, what that means is the following...

They got far less then 60 percent those years, they need to get up to 60 percent, and then the last couple of years they need to go OVER 60 percent, to get it to average 60. (remember the 60 is whatever number they agreed to in the CBA, might be 55 or 58 or whatever).

So they took it conservative early on, and since then they added additional revenue, so the numbers have to get up there and the only way for that to happen is for some big jumps year after year. Also since the entire pie is growing from merchandise and other, the percentage has to keep up with this growing pie.

It's just like the NBA, where right now is the best time to sign people long term, because the cap increases that are going to occur in the near term will make the contracts even the highest end guys sign look like they are mid-tier talent in a couple of years.

If you know your salary cap is basically going to come close to doubling in the next 6-7 years, there is a massive opportunity to stack talent in the front end, be in a superior situation on the back end, and be able to weather another potential flattening period the first few years of the next CBA.

In the near term, very few teams will be in cap hell. So just about everyone is going to be a spender, which is going to push up contracts massively. In the medium term, some teams are going to misallocate this space and waste this opportunity, and on the back end, some of these teams will be back in cap hell. It will be interesting to see how this plays out on the back end. Such a steep increase and then a sudden stop in increases will play major havoc to some on the back end. Those who fill it wisely on the way up, will once again be in a buyers market. At least that's how I see it playing out. Of course nothing is set completely in stone. There are outside factors that could significantly influence revenue for the NFL, but if everything stays on track, I think it will play out like this.

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying cite some sources that expect the salary cap to rise above $140M this year.

The Salary Cap in 2013 was about $123M (per Google)
The Salary Cap in 2014 was about $133M (ibid)
The Salary Cap in 2015 is expected to be between $141M and $144M (CBSSports.com)

We'll know for sure in a month. But what we know for sure is that the NFL did a lot of "smoothing" in determining the salary cap going forward so that there isn't an enormous one-year spike as the TV deals come on line. How do I know?

Because I checked some facts. Find out for yourself: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/15/salary-cap-spike-not-expected-this-year-or-any-year/

 

[TJ]

The team was 11-5 with several key players on IR with very few key players hitting free agency. The primary focus of the offseason is to restructure some contracts, obviously Fitz, Dockett and possibly Campbell.

The team just needs to have a very good draft, not make a big splash in free agency.

 

[CardsFan88]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_NFL_lockout

What I've found so far is that the TV deal is worth 12-16 billion per year.

I also found the number is 47 percent of ALL REVENUE.

So 12B/32=$375,000,000 per team, per year, at the lowest 12 billion per year number
16B/32 = $500,000,000 per team, per year, at the highest end.

Of course I'm sure the NFL takes some of this, so it is ballpark, but let's take 47 percent of those numbers for another ballpark number. This ballpark number would be what the players are owed in salaries...

$375,000,000*.47=176,250,000 in salaries per team
$500,000,000*.47=235,000,000 in salaries per team

...and this is JUST TV revenue, and revenue BEFORE the newer CBS deal, plus of course the growing merchandise, and higher priced concessions, etc etc.

As we saw the cap number was nowhere near here. They had it much, much lower for the past few years. They'll have to make that up on the back end.

So yeah, it's even possible that by the end they are well north of $250 million cap. Of course we'll see, but it's all right there.

There's some holes with info we don't have, but the numbers are so massively higher, there's no way we don't see massive jumps year after year. Especially since they don't want a single super massive jump.

 

[CardsFan88]

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying cite some sources that expect the salary cap to rise above $140M this year.

The Salary Cap in 2013 was about $123M (per Google)
The Salary Cap in 2014 was about $133M (ibid)
The Salary Cap in 2015 is expected to be between $141M and $144M (CBSSports.com)

We'll know for sure in a month. But what we know for sure is that the NFL did a lot of "smoothing" in determining the salary cap going forward so that there isn't an enormous one-year spike as the TV deals come on line. How do I know?

Because I checked some facts. Find out for yourself: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/15/salary-cap-spike-not-expected-this-year-or-any-year/

I'm not sure when the increases will come. They could keep putting them off. We could be in a situation where the numbers we received are fuzzy numbers. We don't know the tv contracts. The 12-16 billion per year might end up being less. If it's tied to viewership, odds are, not. But there's tons of clauses they could have that affect it.

But what we know is, the NFL is required to pay per the CBA, 47 percent of ALL REVENUE. So it's all about revenue. How accurate the media is about the revenue is really the biggest sticking point, and at what point the rate increases.

So I am assuming that now that the cap increases are increasing, and they have to get it up to average 47 percent, the increase should be bigger then last year.

There is a spike, but it's not a spike. It's a new normal, until it isn't. A big spike, if the numbers are accurate would be say a jump to 200 million or more this season. They are averaging it out, and the numbers, if accurate, showcase massive increases year over year.

But also remember the nature of numbers. What seems big today, won't in five years. Just like at some point a 100,000 increase in salaries was 'big', a decade later that went to 1 million or more increase in salary per year.

If they have to get to a $250 million average, and they've been below that, if revenue remained static on every other front, the back end would need to be above 250 so the overall averaged 250.

 

[kerouac9]

Also, the CBA doesn't expire until 2021.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/07/25/the-cba-in-a-nutshell/

If you want to see a better breakdown of the 47% rule (must average 47% of all revenues over the 10 year period of the CBA), check here:

http://nflcommunications.com/2011/07/21/nfl-clubs-approve-comprehensive-agreement/

 

[MadCardDisease]

Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying cite some sources that expect the salary cap to rise above $140M this year.

The Salary Cap in 2013 was about $123M (per Google)
The Salary Cap in 2014 was about $133M (ibid)
The Salary Cap in 2015 is expected to be between $141M and $144M (CBSSports.com)

We'll know for sure in a month. But what we know for sure is that the NFL did a lot of "smoothing" in determining the salary cap going forward so that there isn't an enormous one-year spike as the TV deals come on line. How do I know?

Because I checked some facts. Find out for yourself: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/15/salary-cap-spike-not-expected-this-year-or-any-year/

Yep. Teams were informed back in mid December that the Salary cap would most likely be around $138.6-141.8M this year. That's just an estimate but no where have I heard of a huge spike above that this year.

 

[CardsFan88]

Great link k9

Beginning in 2012, salary cap to be set based on a combined share of “all revenue,” a new model differentiated by revenue source with no expense reductions. Players will receive 55 percent of national media revenue, 45 percent of NFL Ventures revenue, and 40 percent of local club revenue.
Beginning in 2012, annual “true up” to reflect revenue increases or decreases versus projections.

Player share must average at least 47 percent for the 10-year term of the agreement.

League-wide commitment to cash spending of 99 percent of the cap in 2011 and 2012.

For the 2013-2016 seasons, and again for the 2017-2020 seasons, the clubs collectively will commit to cash spending of at least 95 percent of the cap.

Each club committed to cash spending of 89 percent of the cap from 2013-2016 and 2017-2020.

 

[CardsFan88]

What's interesting here is they were projecting 18 billion in revenue by 2016. They also bring up a great point about pension/health care.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=6687485

As revenues are projected to possibly double by 2016 to $18 billion annually, retired players will benefit from improved health and pension funding that is expected to increase significantly.

 

[Stout]

The team was 11-5 with several key players on IR with very few key players hitting free agency. The primary focus of the offseason is to restructure some contracts, obviously Fitz, Dockett and possibly Campbell.

The team just needs to have a very good draft, not make a big splash in free agency.

Yeah, we shouldn't have to make a big splash to be successful, you're right. Still, can you imagine Murray or Lynch in our backfield?

 

[kerouac9]

Yeah, we shouldn't have to make a big splash to be successful, you're right. Still, can you imagine Murray or Lynch in our backfield?

According to the Grantland NFL Podcast, Dallas offered Murray 4 years, $16M in their opening contract bid. I don't want to touch DeMarco Murray (curse of 370), but it might not take much to bring in a fairly good free agent running back.

 

[Gee!]

Where's joeschmo when you need him?

 

[iRobot]

OverTheCap projects 2015 salary cap at $144M but thats a # from NFLPA and the $137M - $141M is something noted in press releases RE: the NFL -- I'd expect it to be around somewhere in any of those #s but no higher.

Arizona knew it has cap decisions to make.. and tough choices to make. But if you trim some of the fat, there is a healthy amount of cap to use for FA/draft etc.