Cardinals draft Dilemma

[BullheadCardFan]

Thinking you are going to find that next franchise QB is pretty non existent. I think the best a team could hope for is to find a competent QB who fits into your offense and hope you can develop both physically and mentally as well as break poor habits and one that can be some sort of leader who the team believes in. I personally think you need to select one that you believe has the mental capacity to learn the pro game and learn to go through his reads and move in the pocket and not one that will simply take off anytime there is pressure or the first read is not open.

+1

Good summary of what we need in a QB. Can our staff develop a young QB and teach him these things? Will it translate to NFL game speed? Can they learn the offense so they know where there 2nd and 3rd reads are?

 

[TheCardFan]

Sensible numbers, but keep in mind that last year 7/12 playoff teams had QBs who were selected in the first round.

In 2015-2016, this number was 8/12.

In both years, only three playoff teams were led by QBs drafted outside the top 2 rounds, and they were the same 3 teams.

Over 50% of playoff quarterbacks in recent history have been drafted in the 1st.

90% of those QB's were drafted in the top 3.

How many were selected outside of the top 10 in round 1 (where we are picking)? The answer is 2 (Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben). That is 2 in the last 14 years.

My take...QB's in round 2 have just as much success as QB's taken after pick 10 in round 1. If you don't have a top 3 pick and a clear cut #1 guy...don't reach.

 

[cardpa]

Then... Garrison Hearst wasn't a lottery ticket. Simeon Rice wasn't a lottery ticket. Andre Wadsworth wasn't a lottery ticket. Leonard Davis wasn't a lottery ticket.

You can cherry pick the successes all you want, but just looking at top 5 picks in AZ that weren't QBs, they were lottery tickets that didn't bring success to the Cardinals.

Of the players you mentioned I would argue that Hearst was terribly mishandled by Buddy, he ended up having a nice career after he left AZ. Rice was a good player who had head problems. Again he also had a nice career just not in AZ. Wadsworth was be felled by injuries which had nothing to do with his abilities. When healthy he was a pretty good player. Davis was also put in a position to fail. It was obvious he wasn't a competent tackle yet was forced to play there instead of being moved to guard where he played like a pro bowler. I think these players' failures had more to do with how the team was ran at the time than the players themselves.

 

[Cardiac]

Then... Garrison Hearst wasn't a lottery ticket. Simeon Rice wasn't a lottery ticket. Andre Wadsworth wasn't a lottery ticket. Leonard Davis wasn't a lottery ticket.

You can cherry pick the successes all you want, but just looking at top 5 picks in AZ that weren't QBs, they were lottery tickets that didn't bring success to the Cardinals.

See CardPa's post about the above. So let's say all draft picks are lottery picks but some are the daily numbers lottery picks and some are Power Ball lottery pick odds. The vast majority of QB's are Power Ball lottery odds.

 

[cardpa]

See CardPa's post about the above. So let's say all draft picks are lottery picks but some are the daily numbers lottery picks and some are Power Ball lottery pick odds. The vast majority of QB's are Power Ball lottery odds.

Very accurate assessment Cardiac.

 

[JeffGollin]

I have no problem with the Cards taking an annual shot at a QBOF, understanding of course that the odds of failure is probably at least 4 in 5.

But I wouldn't take the risk at the expense of bipassing another player who could help us win earlier.

Not that drafting a non-QB guarantees a lock (I'd set the odds that we'd strike oil on a non-QB at 50-50 & that sets the risk/talent gap between the two options closer than you'd think). Still, I think the talent-gap between any of the top 5 QB's and the top 13 non-QB's is enough to make rolling the dice on a QB at #13 too risky.

 

[TheCardFan]

This draft is deep with talent. If the Cards are 90% sure that one of these guys has a legit chance at QBOF, I would take a shot in round 2 on Kizer or Mahomes (if they fall to us). If not, I would rather take a shot later in the draft (Kelly is my choice) and fill up the roster in round 1-3 with quality players that can start faster and make contributions this year.

I am also a fan of trading for McCarron and cutting Stanton.

 

[Reddog]

I don't expect Carson to retire after this year which makes the need to reach to grab that QB less likely. I think if a good solution drops in our lap then pull the trigger. If not wait til next year when the QB class is much stronger and grab him then.

 

[WildBB]

Palmer might not last through this year, let alone depending on him to return again next. Last year was the window, this year a last ditch effort.

They'll draft a QB in this draft. Mtl, 3rd-5th Rd's, if they're unable to execute a reasonable trade.

 

[Stout]

Palmer might not last through this year, let alone depending on him to return again next. Last year was the window, this year a last ditch effort.

They'll draft a QB in this draft. Mtl, 3rd-5th Rd's, if they're unable to execute a reasonable trade.

EXACTLY. Anyone that's counting on Palmer after this season are absolutely delusional. We're not approaching the point of diminishing returns with him; we're there. This year IS a last-ditch effort, which is why the FO is also clearly building for the future. And, what's the most important piece when you build for the future? QB.

I don't expect Carson to retire after this year which makes the need to reach to grab that QB less likely. I think if a good solution drops in our lap then pull the trigger. If not wait til next year when the QB class is much stronger and grab him then.

That's the way you end up going 3-13, by counting on the relic to automatically return, and then to somehow be good. And if you're thinking that's okay because it means tanking and getting a top pick for a QB, look at the timeline and puke--that would mean a wasted year this year AND next year and HOPING we have a QBOF THREE YEARS from now. Not a good way to approach the position.

Good teams take care of these situations before they become critical; losing teams leave them go until they become critical and then panic trying to patch the holes.