Cardinals Economics - Kyler and the Future

[Chris_Sanders]

Either you think that Kyler is and can be better than Kirk Cousins for the next five years, or you don’t.

If you think he’s better, you sign him to a deal that’s between Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Allen.

If you don’t, you trade him away to someone who does and reset.

I think that despite everything Kyler is better than Cousins, so I said weeks ago that we need to pay him.

This is exactly correct.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I've agreed with you on the trade him/pay him proposal. I would much rather trade him than give him 50+ million at this point in his career. I disagree that it's impossible to make him play and earn it this year, but it's not ideal. The problem with the pay him idea is that you might cripple the organization for 5+ years if the QB doesn't change after given incentive to do the same thing he's been doing before. What kind of neat accounting takes do you have that will help us in that instance? I get the ride-or-die thought process, but I'd much rather not pin all our hopes on KM doing a complete 180 AFTER a ginormous reward deal.

Finally, what kind of leadership trend does it send to the rest of your team/organization when pouting and Eff You behavior (refusing to re-enter a playoff game) gets not only rewarded, but record-setting NFL pay rewarded? It sends a godawful message.

Oh, and nice walking the line with "stupid and shortsighted." We both know the insult is meant, under the thin veneer of "the idea."

I believe the idea that just punt on settling this til next year was ever an option is stupid and that was apparently that was the organizational idea. Every bit of this off season is pretty much not what I would do.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Ravens GM Wants To Get A Deal Done: No Way Jackson Steps On The Field Without A New Deal

Lamar Jackson apparently represents himself but this is the next domino

 

[kerouac9]

I've agreed with you on the trade him/pay him proposal. I would much rather trade him than give him 50+ million at this point in his career. I disagree that it's impossible to make him play and earn it this year, but it's not ideal. The problem with the pay him idea is that you might cripple the organization for 5+ years if the QB doesn't change after given incentive to do the same thing he's been doing before. What kind of neat accounting takes do you have that will help us in that instance? I get the ride-or-die thought process, but I'd much rather not pin all our hopes on KM doing a complete 180 AFTER a ginormous reward deal.

Finally, what kind of leadership trend does it send to the rest of your team/organization when pouting and Eff You behavior (refusing to re-enter a playoff game) gets not only rewarded, but record-setting NFL pay rewarded? It sends a godawful message.

Oh, and nice walking the line with "stupid and shortsighted." We both know the insult is meant, under the thin veneer of "the idea."

After Wentz and Goff I can't believe this is really an assertion that reasonable people can make anymore.

 

[Stout]

After Wentz and Goff I can't believe this is really an assertion that reasonable people can make anymore.

Yeah, and I trust Keim to structure the contract so it's easy to cut bait, and I trust that KM would accept that deal.

 

[Chopper0080]

After Wentz and Goff I can't believe this is really an assertion that reasonable people can make anymore.

If you told me Kyler would sign for 5 years and an average of 45 with reasonable outs due to injury, I would probably take it as this point (a little begrudgingly at this point tbh). Despite his flaws he is still a top 12 QB in the NFL. We might be a perennial 8 -10 win team that never wins the division or makes a serious playoff run, but I just can't see a better path right now.

 

[Ronin]

Thank you Dhop!

 

[Ronin]

Field Yates

@FieldYates
·
18m

The Cardinals converted WR Deandre Hopkins $10.65M roster bonus into a signing bonus, creating $7.1M in 2022 cap space, per source.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Well at least they are executing what looked like a path to being competitive.

 

[Stout]

Well at least they are executing what looked like a path to being competitive.

If not a plan to improve on last season. We are at best treading water, at this point, and will have to do massive work to even get back to where we were last season, let alone improve.

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Well at least they are executing what looked like a path to being competitive.

Being competitive or winning enough to get into the playoffs?

The FO's track record is not stellar

 

[Krangodnzr]

If not a plan to improve on last season. We are at best treading water, at this point, and will have to do massive work to even get back to where we were last season, let alone improve.

Just not losing Hopkins alone will help the Cardinals out next season.

 

[Chris_Sanders]

With less trade partners every day the cost of Kyler just goes up and the return on a trade dwindles.

 

[Stout]

Just not losing Hopkins alone will help the Cardinals out next season.

Yes, having him back is crucial. Problem is, he's only one player, star though he is. As clear as it was that the roster wasn't good enough last season, especially in the depth department, the roster is not just worse right now, but significantly worse at premium positions. And, at this point, it's looking like the draft is the only way to remedy this, which is a terrible strategy on the face of it, and that's before you add in our lack of picks and awful drafting GM.

We knew it didn't look good heading into the offseason; it looks a lot worse at this point in time.

 

[BritCard]

With less trade partners every day the cost of Kyler just goes up and the return on a trade dwindles.

I don't see it that way as there is no need to trade him this year. He can play out year 4 with the 5th year option lined up.

And there are teams that if Kyler was made available would move on from their current QB.

 

[dscher]

Ertz: Outside expectations want Kyler Murray to be 'prototypical Tom Brady'

Count the likes of tight end Zach Ertz and running back James Conner as a couple of returning vets that trust and believe in QB Kyler Murray.

arizonasports.com

 

[Chris_Sanders]

I don't see it that way as there is no need to trade him this year. He can play out year 4 with the 5th year option lined up.

And there are teams that if Kyler was made available would move on from their current QB.

He isn't playing on the current contract. His agent has said it. 98.7 has reported it multiple times.

There isn't an outcome where everyone else gets extended / resigned and Murray just accepts being the only guy that has to play it out.

 

[BritCard]

He isn't playing on the current contract. His agent has said it. 98.7 has reported it multiple times.

There isn't an outcome where everyone else gets extended / resigned and Murray just accepts being the only guy that has to play it out.

Players say they aren't going to play on the current contract until it gets to the bit where they are going to not get paid, and lose an accrued season and it dawns on them that they come off worse.

I expect a deal to get done anyway.

 

[Stout]

Players say they aren't going to play on the current contract until it gets to the bit where they are going to not get paid, and lose an accrued season and it dawns on them that they come off worse.

I expect a deal to get done anyway.

Exactamundo, including on the deal getting done.

 

[Stout]

Ertz: Outside expectations want Kyler Murray to be 'prototypical Tom Brady'

Count the likes of tight end Zach Ertz and running back James Conner as a couple of returning vets that trust and believe in QB Kyler Murray.

arizonasports.com

This article buoyed me somewhat. I'm still not pleased with the kid, but it speaks well that guys want to play with him and will speak highly of him. Sure, you could argue that they just wanted to get paid, but I'm choosing to walk on the light side of the street here

 

[Stout]

He isn't playing on the current contract. His agent has said it. 98.7 has reported it multiple times.

There isn't an outcome where everyone else gets extended / resigned and Murray just accepts being the only guy that has to play it out.

If the team took a hard-line stance, you can bet your bottom dollar he'd play. He's not giving up the $$$ and sitting out a season just to hold out. That said, it shouldn't come to that, and I don't think it will.

 

[Krangodnzr]

Yes, having him back is crucial. Problem is, he's only one player, star though he is. As clear as it was that the roster wasn't good enough last season, especially in the depth department, the roster is not just worse right now, but significantly worse at premium positions. And, at this point, it's looking like the draft is the only way to remedy this, which is a terrible strategy on the face of it, and that's before you add in our lack of picks and awful drafting GM.

We knew it didn't look good heading into the offseason; it looks a lot worse at this point in time.

Almost every team losing their #1 target will significantly hurt their offense.

 

[Krangodnzr]

This article buoyed me somewhat. I'm still not pleased with the kid, but it speaks well that guys want to play with him and will speak highly of him. Sure, you could argue that they just wanted to get paid, but I'm choosing to walk on the light side of the street here

Pretty much every negative thing you're hearing about Murray isn't coming from the Cardinals. Players have all said great things about him.

 

[Stout]

Almost every team losing their #1 target will significantly hurt their offense.

Absolutely. We'll have him back, hopefully at full speed for the whole season. What about the rest of the offense? We shall see.

 

[Jetstream Green]

I wanted to put this in one area so people can be informed as to what we are facing in the next 3 years.

Cardinals Cap Space Right Now: $2,186 This is comically bad. The team will have to make several moves in the next two weeks to do anything

We can generate cap space in the following manners:

Pre June 1st Cuts over 2 million

DJ Humphries 15 million
Jordan Phillips $4,095,666
Rodney Hudson $4,570,000
Justin Pugh $9,848,529
Jordan Hicks $6,500,000
Devon Kennard $4,858,088
Matt Prater $3,575,000
Marcus Golden $3,235,294
Byron Murphy $2,540,000
Zach Allen $2,540,000
Justin Murray $2,294,118

Cuts over 1 million

Kelvin Beachum $1,675,000
Tanner Vallejo $1,594,118
Andy Isabella $1,126,347

Trade Pre June 1st:

Kyler Murray $5,489,360
JJ Watt 6,300,000

Restructures Max:

DeAndre Hopkins $10,786,667
JJ Watt $9,285,000
Budda Baker $6,643,33
Jordan Phillips $6,660,00
Rodney Hudson $7,297,500
Devon Kennard $2,815,000

Extensions Max (Only listing players you may actually want to extend)

Hopkins: $12,944,000
Humphries $10,304,000
JJ Watt $9,904,000
Budda Baker $7,972,000
Rodney Hudson: $7,784,000
Justin Pugh: $6,324,000
Kyler Murray: $3,619,488
Matt Prater: $1,964,000
Zach Allen $1,260,000
Jalen Thompson $1,260,000


2023 Salary Cap Space: $133,379,000 (Projected new TV deals will impact)

Kyler Murray 5th year extension $29,000,000

2024 Salary Cap Space $202,649,597 (Projected new TV deals will impact)

Kyler Murray 1st year franchise tag $35 million

2025 Only players current impacting the salary cap are due to pro rated bonuses so basically full cap -5.4 million

JJ Watt $2.4 million
Jordan Phillips $1.3 million
Rodney Hudson 1.76 million

Kyler Murray Second Franchise Tag $49 million

So what does this all mean with Kyler Murray and money?

He from 2023 - 2025 he is guaranteed $113 million dollars at MINIMUM if he plays well at all OR the Cardinals lose him with no compensation.

Conversely if you trade him you would net at $118.5 million cap savings over 4 years minimum. Unfortunately most QBs cost right in this area (Watson for instance) so it is basically a wash unless you tank and draft a new one again.

Become more efficient at drafting