Mitch
Crawled Through 5 FB Fields
Well, well, well...all eyes are on March 5th...because that's the official date of the new NFL season and it is very much expected that a lockout imposed on the Players' Union by the NFL Owners is a fait accompli.
The gist of the owners' plight is that they want the new CBA to enact the following changes:
(1) A reduction of the 59.5% revenue figure that the owners currently have to allocate to the players. The owners complain that some organizations cannot make a profit in this struggling economy due to rising stadium costs and player salaries.
The problem is: the owners of such franchises do not wish to open their books to the Players' Union. Something smells very fishy about that.
Imagine what we and the players might learn about the Bidwills, for example. It's quite possible---especially the way they and other owners this year saved significant money on the previous year's salary cap (in the Cardinals' case it was nearly $30M---wow) that if we were to learn the exact number of the profits the Bidwills made in this year and in past years---that we would be so outraged, we would be loathe to buy tickets or merchandise ever again.
Fans would likely feel the disdain George Bailey felt toward Mr. Potter in It's A Wonderful Life.
And the players...they would feel even more screwed.
Prediction: Unless the owners open their books (which they absolutely will never do), there is no reason why the players should budge from the 59.5% figure.
The best compromise would be for owners to adopt a profit sharing system that would allow the more struggling owners a little more financial assistance (as they do in MLB)...which would mean that the owners would have to open their books to each other. Think that would ever happen? Do you honestly think the wealthiest owners could care less about the struggling ones?
Thus...this is where the new CBA hinges.
2. The owners want a salary scale for rookies selected in the NFL Draft that would prevent first rounders from entering the NFL at salaries that exceed the majority of veterans' on the team.
Prediction: This has a very good chance at passing. The veterans will want more money available to them...and the owners would rather pay deserving veterans. Plus...it's inane to throw millions at college athletes who have never played a snap of pro football.
3. The owners would like to add a 17th game in lieu of 1 pre-season game.
Prediction: as long as slightly larger rosters numbers are agreed to, this is going to pass...and eventually move to 2 pre-season games and 18 regular season games. This means more revenue for everyone. Thus, this is a slam dunk.
4. The owners would like to tweak the recent salary cap figures of approximately $129M maximum and $112M minimum.
Prediction: It's not certain at this time what figures the owners want to settle on, but there could be a scenario that would allow a struggling owner a one or two year grace period to go under the minimum. Again, however, this would behoove the struggling owner to open his books...so it just isn't likely this would ever happen at all.
5. Lastly (of the major issues on the table), the owners want more leverage with regard to getting back signing bonus money from players whom they consider breached the terms of their contracts.
Prediction: This one is sticky...because it involves a very detailed determination of why and when a player's contract can be considered as breached. This one could take considerable time and negotiating to solve.
The reality is...the looming lockout...comes at the worst imaginable time. Despite the struggling economy, the NFL, as a product, has been flourishing. The NFL has never been more popular...as a business---it has never been more lucrative. Football has clearly become the most popular sport in America.
If the owners do what everyone expects them to and they lockout the players come March 5...and a new CBA isn't agreed to in short order...the owners will be as nationally abhored and villified as the unconscionable Wall Street and mortgage company white shirts who fleeced average Americans for billions of dollars.
While this may seem a tad overstated...if it's one thing the average American John and Jane do not ever wish to feel---it's being ripped off by greedy capitalists whose cups are already flowing over.
The owners are tightly-knit group, aren't they? Look at how many of them feathered their nests this year. One gets the sense that they prepared for next year's potential strike year by squeezing as many dollars as they could out of the fans this year. It's quite possible that some of the owners have already made a portion of the profits they would make next year...so they can sit tight as long as they wish.
Many of the owners have covered their tails too by negotiating stadium agreements where they do not have to pay stadium fees in a strike year.
How many of the owners have been signing players to new deals?
There are a record number of unsigned players in limbo---many of whom---like Deuce Lutui---were screwed out of free agency last year. A new batch of 4th and 5th year players awaits this year.
The thing is...what happens if the lockout drags into the middle of the summer? Let's say hypothetically that a new CBA is agreed to in late July. What happens then? Will we see the biggest flurry of free agent activity ever??? All in a matter of a couple of weeks???
What happens with the 2011 NFL Draft? For the first time, teams will not be fully aware of what their biggest needs are because they haven't signed any free agents yet who would already address those needs.
For the first time the draftees will not know what their salaries will look like...how will that affect the players who are on the fence about whether to declare for the draft or not?
What's likely to happen is that teams will feel all the more pressured to draft for need---y'know the old bird in hand adage.
This would put the Cardinals in a precarious dilemma---if they knew going into the draft they had already re-signed Larry Fitzgerald and signed a free agent OLB like Lamarr Woodley, for example---do you think that would change their thinking in the draft?
You bet.
And get this---while it has rarely been proved that free agents have been tampered with prior to the beginning of free agency---which always makes you wonder how some high profile guys are signed at the tick of midnight---this year the tampering may be rampantly egregious, as teams try to know whom they can count on, if and when the CBA is agreed to.
What I fear---as I did this year when the Bidwills cut most the corners they could (and look what happened---as they say---"you get what you pay for")---the Cardinals will be completely unprepared for what to expect and thus will twiddle their thumbs once again---they will try to tell us they are building the team the Pittsburgh way---through the draft and through adding a couple of mid-range free agents---which is akin to what I have come to understand when a woman informs me that she is "old-fashioned." What that really means---she expects the guy to arrange and pay for everything.
It seems that given any excuse to do little to nothing---the Cardinals will.
Let's see if there's any movement from the Cardinals' FO between now and March 5th. Anyone have an inkling of what the FO might do between now and then?
The gist of the owners' plight is that they want the new CBA to enact the following changes:
(1) A reduction of the 59.5% revenue figure that the owners currently have to allocate to the players. The owners complain that some organizations cannot make a profit in this struggling economy due to rising stadium costs and player salaries.
The problem is: the owners of such franchises do not wish to open their books to the Players' Union. Something smells very fishy about that.
Imagine what we and the players might learn about the Bidwills, for example. It's quite possible---especially the way they and other owners this year saved significant money on the previous year's salary cap (in the Cardinals' case it was nearly $30M---wow) that if we were to learn the exact number of the profits the Bidwills made in this year and in past years---that we would be so outraged, we would be loathe to buy tickets or merchandise ever again.
Fans would likely feel the disdain George Bailey felt toward Mr. Potter in It's A Wonderful Life.
And the players...they would feel even more screwed.
Prediction: Unless the owners open their books (which they absolutely will never do), there is no reason why the players should budge from the 59.5% figure.
The best compromise would be for owners to adopt a profit sharing system that would allow the more struggling owners a little more financial assistance (as they do in MLB)...which would mean that the owners would have to open their books to each other. Think that would ever happen? Do you honestly think the wealthiest owners could care less about the struggling ones?
Thus...this is where the new CBA hinges.
2. The owners want a salary scale for rookies selected in the NFL Draft that would prevent first rounders from entering the NFL at salaries that exceed the majority of veterans' on the team.
Prediction: This has a very good chance at passing. The veterans will want more money available to them...and the owners would rather pay deserving veterans. Plus...it's inane to throw millions at college athletes who have never played a snap of pro football.
3. The owners would like to add a 17th game in lieu of 1 pre-season game.
Prediction: as long as slightly larger rosters numbers are agreed to, this is going to pass...and eventually move to 2 pre-season games and 18 regular season games. This means more revenue for everyone. Thus, this is a slam dunk.
4. The owners would like to tweak the recent salary cap figures of approximately $129M maximum and $112M minimum.
Prediction: It's not certain at this time what figures the owners want to settle on, but there could be a scenario that would allow a struggling owner a one or two year grace period to go under the minimum. Again, however, this would behoove the struggling owner to open his books...so it just isn't likely this would ever happen at all.
5. Lastly (of the major issues on the table), the owners want more leverage with regard to getting back signing bonus money from players whom they consider breached the terms of their contracts.
Prediction: This one is sticky...because it involves a very detailed determination of why and when a player's contract can be considered as breached. This one could take considerable time and negotiating to solve.
The reality is...the looming lockout...comes at the worst imaginable time. Despite the struggling economy, the NFL, as a product, has been flourishing. The NFL has never been more popular...as a business---it has never been more lucrative. Football has clearly become the most popular sport in America.
If the owners do what everyone expects them to and they lockout the players come March 5...and a new CBA isn't agreed to in short order...the owners will be as nationally abhored and villified as the unconscionable Wall Street and mortgage company white shirts who fleeced average Americans for billions of dollars.
While this may seem a tad overstated...if it's one thing the average American John and Jane do not ever wish to feel---it's being ripped off by greedy capitalists whose cups are already flowing over.
The owners are tightly-knit group, aren't they? Look at how many of them feathered their nests this year. One gets the sense that they prepared for next year's potential strike year by squeezing as many dollars as they could out of the fans this year. It's quite possible that some of the owners have already made a portion of the profits they would make next year...so they can sit tight as long as they wish.
Many of the owners have covered their tails too by negotiating stadium agreements where they do not have to pay stadium fees in a strike year.
How many of the owners have been signing players to new deals?
There are a record number of unsigned players in limbo---many of whom---like Deuce Lutui---were screwed out of free agency last year. A new batch of 4th and 5th year players awaits this year.
The thing is...what happens if the lockout drags into the middle of the summer? Let's say hypothetically that a new CBA is agreed to in late July. What happens then? Will we see the biggest flurry of free agent activity ever??? All in a matter of a couple of weeks???
What happens with the 2011 NFL Draft? For the first time, teams will not be fully aware of what their biggest needs are because they haven't signed any free agents yet who would already address those needs.
For the first time the draftees will not know what their salaries will look like...how will that affect the players who are on the fence about whether to declare for the draft or not?
What's likely to happen is that teams will feel all the more pressured to draft for need---y'know the old bird in hand adage.
This would put the Cardinals in a precarious dilemma---if they knew going into the draft they had already re-signed Larry Fitzgerald and signed a free agent OLB like Lamarr Woodley, for example---do you think that would change their thinking in the draft?
You bet.
And get this---while it has rarely been proved that free agents have been tampered with prior to the beginning of free agency---which always makes you wonder how some high profile guys are signed at the tick of midnight---this year the tampering may be rampantly egregious, as teams try to know whom they can count on, if and when the CBA is agreed to.
What I fear---as I did this year when the Bidwills cut most the corners they could (and look what happened---as they say---"you get what you pay for")---the Cardinals will be completely unprepared for what to expect and thus will twiddle their thumbs once again---they will try to tell us they are building the team the Pittsburgh way---through the draft and through adding a couple of mid-range free agents---which is akin to what I have come to understand when a woman informs me that she is "old-fashioned." What that really means---she expects the guy to arrange and pay for everything.
It seems that given any excuse to do little to nothing---the Cardinals will.
Let's see if there's any movement from the Cardinals' FO between now and March 5th. Anyone have an inkling of what the FO might do between now and then?
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