Cardinals Over Under 8.5 2025 Season

[BirdGangThing]

Second time you’ve tossed this out there. What’s the factual basis for this??

right? it's not like microwave popcorn

 

[kerouac9]

You are basicly making my point with this.

Of the 21 players some will not pan out. And I 100% agree that Clark, Gaines, Pappoe and WR Palmer are the most likely candidates. QB Tune is a huge ?

BJO and DR were high draft picks that contributed nothing due to injury. I absolutely expect an impact from both - especially when the baseline is 0. Add CB Jones to that list.

9 of 10 Elite OTs do not reach their level until their 3rd year. I expect MHJ to develop. For both, we do not know if that means all-pro level. But I certainly expect PJJ to move up from his 12th ranking and MHJ from his 21st ranking.

You are probably right that Stills will not develop further

That leaves 10 additional players + Higgins, CB Thomas and WR Xavier. Yeah, I absolutely expect to see a leap forward from some of those 13 players

Melton showed he belongs, but had great games and terrible games. I expect more consistency and a higher floor.

Reiman and Adams showed elite capability in one aspect of the game, but struggled in the other aspect. I expect Reiman to be more involved in the passing game and Adams to develop in pass-pro.

I expect DTD to take over and be an improvement from Thompson's play last year.

I expect Higgins to mature as he has not played TE that long.

Christian Jones showed improvement from Pre-season to end of the season when he was forced into action. I expect that to continue.

There are only 22 starters.

Only 15 players play more than one-third of the offensive snaps last season; only 12 players played more than a third of the defensive snaps.

Why does this matter?

If Melton, ST5, and Adams all improve, the end result is only a moderate improvement for the Arizona Cardinals; they can't all play meaningful snaps.

If Higgins and Reiman both take a quantum leap there isn't much to get excited about, because they played less than 900 combined snaps last year, and if they're on the field, they're likely taking away snaps from MHJ or Michael Wilson.

If you give Xavier Weaver all of Zay Jones' snaps, it doesn't really make a meaningful impact on the bottom line.

What's the real benefit of PJJ improving from the 13th-best OT to the sixth? Would you even be able to tell the difference?

This team doesn't need more mid players; they need more top line players. Christian Jones being better than Jackson Barton looks good on Monti's resume, but it doesn't do much for the Cards in the win-loss column.

The only thing that matters, realistically, in the Cards being meaningful playoff contenders through Christmas is Beej and Darius Robinson performing like above-average NFL starters, Charmin Harrison having a Terry McLaurin/CeeDee Lamb caliber season, and someone else (Trey Benson, our first- or second-round draft picks) becoming above-average starters.

 

[BACH]

There are only 22 starters.

Only 15 players play more than one-third of the offensive snaps last season; only 12 players played more than a third of the defensive snaps.

Why does this matter?

If Melton, ST5, and Adams all improve, the end result is only a moderate improvement for the Arizona Cardinals; they can't all play meaningful snaps.

If Higgins and Reiman both take a quantum leap there isn't much to get excited about, because they played less than 900 combined snaps last year, and if they're on the field, they're likely taking away snaps from MHJ or Michael Wilson.

If you give Xavier Weaver all of Zay Jones' snaps, it doesn't really make a meaningful impact on the bottom line.

What's the real benefit of PJJ improving from the 13th-best OT to the sixth? Would you even be able to tell the difference?

This team doesn't need more mid players; they need more top line players. Christian Jones being better than Jackson Barton looks good on Monti's resume, but it doesn't do much for the Cards in the win-loss column.

The only thing that matters, realistically, in the Cards being meaningful playoff contenders through Christmas is Beej and Darius Robinson performing like above-average NFL starters, Charmin Harrison having a Terry McLaurin/CeeDee Lamb caliber season, and someone else (Trey Benson, our first- or second-round draft picks) becoming above-average starters.

1 The defense is playing more and more rotations. Improvements for non starters have a bigger impact than it did earlier.

2. Of the players listed there are what 5-7 expected starters

3. Your argument is irrelevant in this discussion as my argument was that you had to take some improvement into the equation and the counter was that it was unrealistic to take player improvement of any kind into the discussion

 

[BACH]

Second time you’ve tossed this out there. What’s the factual basis for this??

Pretty common knowledge IMO

It’s been known for years that OL is one of the 3 positions where it takes longer to adjust to the NFL.

If you listen to some of the more knowledgeable experts you have the reasoning for the stupid money thrown at very mid range OL that teams are taking a chance that they get better because OL mature slower.

Plenty of metrics proving it. Wirfs is the only recent that was elite as a rookie. All the rest matured over 2-4 seasons.
I’ll post it when I get away from the living hell I’m currently in - at a playgym with my toddler kids

 

[kerouac9]

Pretty common knowledge IMO

It’s been known for years that OL is one of the 3 positions where it takes longer to adjust to the NFL.

If you listen to some of the more knowledgeable experts you have the reasoning for the stupid money thrown at very mid range OL that teams are taking a chance that they get better because OL mature slower.

Plenty of metrics proving it. Wirfs is the only recent that was elite as a rookie. All the rest matured over 2-4 seasons.
I’ll post it when I get away from the living hell I’m currently in - at a playgym with my toddler kids

Bro back up your assertion that “9 of 10 Elite OTs do not reach their level until their 3rd year”

“Podcasts” is not an answer. Otherwise just admit you threw some out there and got called on it.

Wouldn’t be the first time.

 

[BACH]

Bro back up your assertion that “9 of 10 Elite OTs do not reach their level until their 3rd year”

“Podcasts” is not an answer. Otherwise just admit you threw some out there and got called on it.

Wouldn’t be the first time.

Read my last sentence….

And love the double stand when you never support any of you claims yourself.

And in your typical fashion you take a bit of one of my 3 points in my post to disqualify all 3 points. Are you really that desperate to be right?

 

[QuebecCard]

Read my last sentence….

And love the double stand when you never support any of you claims yourself.

And in your typical fashion you take a bit of one of my 3 points in my post to disqualify all 3 points. Are you really that desperate to be right?

A rhetorical question, as you well know the answer.

 

[CardNots]

Are you really that desperate to be right?

You expected something different?

 

[kerouac9]

Read my last sentence….

And love the double stand when you never support any of you claims yourself.

And in your typical fashion you take a bit of one of my 3 points in my post to disqualify all 3 points. Are you really that desperate to be right?

I literally support all my assertions with evidence. Starting with my snap counts analysis that you dismiss without addressing.

Weak sauce brother.

 

[Chopper0080]

If you are banking on young player "improvement" to boost win totals...I agree there are probably only a handful of players on the roster who matter.

Isaiah Adams. If he can develop into a better OG than Evan Brown in year 2, that will make a small difference.

Max Melton. If he can supplant SMB or STV, that makes a small difference.

Darius Robinson. If he can be the 2nd best DL player in year 2, that will make a large difference.

Trey Benson. If Benson can be a 40%-50% RB back with Conner, that will make a small difference.

BJ Ojulari. If he can get into the rotation and play 40%-50% snaps, that will make a small difference. Interestingly enough, I think his job is a little in jeopardy depending on the draft. He is currently EDGE 4 on the roster behind Sweat, Collins and Browning. I understand Rallis likes to rotate, but his role right now looks to be Collins backup. Monti could easily go EDGE in one of the first three rounds, and now Ojulari is bottom of the group.

 

[Carolinacacti]

I loved the over last year and I won. It's always a gamble if players get injured the bet is over. I like the number this year and will put the money down. Some on this board would debate that the Cards could still hit the over without Kyler. I'm not in that camp so

 

[kerouac9]

If you are banking on young player "improvement" to boost win totals...I agree there are probably only a handful of players on the roster who matter.

Isaiah Adams. If he can develop into a better OG than Evan Brown in year 2, that will make a small difference.

Max Melton. If he can supplant SMB or STV, that makes a small difference.

Darius Robinson. If he can be the 2nd best DL player in year 2, that will make a large difference.

Trey Benson. If Benson can be a 40%-50% RB back with Conner, that will make a small difference.

BJ Ojulari. If he can get into the rotation and play 40%-50% snaps, that will make a small difference. Interestingly enough, I think his job is a little in jeopardy depending on the draft. He is currently EDGE 4 on the roster behind Sweat, Collins and Browning. I understand Rallis likes to rotate, but his role right now looks to be Collins backup. Monti could easily go EDGE in one of the first three rounds, and now Ojulari is bottom of the group.

MHJ would make a huge difference.

I think Benson being able to effectively spell Conner would make a moderate difference if we're planning to play into December.

One hundred percent agree on Beej. I think he can contribute at a smaller snap percentage (I think Gannon and Rallis would be very happy with most of the front-five players getting no more than 40-45% of game snaps), but you'd like to see him complete with Browning for reps, and not just taking the leftovers from Luketa/Okwara/Dimukeje/Xavier Thomas/Gardeck.

 

[BACH]

I literally support all my assertions with evidence. Starting with my snap counts analysis that you dismiss without addressing.

Weak sauce brother.

90% of your posts are slamming a point without offering anything to qualify your own POV, dude

But returned from a birthday party with the kids - Metrics as promised...

Here is the list of the OTs ranked higher than PJJ in the league and their respective PFF grade - elite grading is 85+.

Tristan Wirfs - between pro bowl and elite as rookie with 84.8, so I'll count that in​

Jordan Mailata - Elite level in his 4th year
2018 - No snaps
2019 - No Snaps
2020 - 70,4
2021 - 88.3

Penei Sewell - Elite level in his 3rd year​

2021 - 77.0
2022 - 80.6
2023 - 92.8
2024 - 89.6

Lane Johnson - Elite level in his 7th year
2013 - 74.9
2014 - 83.5
2015 - 74.8
2016 - 84.6
2017 - 80.6
2018 - 80.1
2019 - 88.8

Terron Armstead - Elite level in his 3rd year
2013 - 76.3
2014 - 78.6
2015 - 92.5

Trent Williams - Elite level in his 4th year
2010 - 63.4
2011 - 79.0
2012 - 80.4
2013 - 91.8

Bernanrd Reiman - Elite Level in his 3rd year
2022 - 73.3
2023 - 82.7
2024 - 85.1

Christian Darrisaw - Elite Level in his 2nd year
2021 - 71.9
2022 - 90.1

Rashad Slater - Very good as rookie but not Elite level until his 4th year
2021 - 83.6
2022 - 84.0
2023 - 76.6
2024 - 90.9

Zach Tom - Elite level in his 3rd year
2022 - 68.3
2023 - 79.7
2024 - 85.8

Charles Cross - have not reached elite level yet after 3 seasons
2022 - 63.1
2023 - 67.6
2024 - 82.5

PJJ - have not reached elite level yet after 2 seasons
2023 - 60.6
2024 - 80.8

 

[Stout]

Agreed about the incremental progress only yielding slight benefits. What needs to happen is that Big Johns need to be drafted or developed NOW. If MHJ can take a leap, that will be a major help. If somehow Benson becomes a stud and fills in when JC goes down, again, that would be a major help. Melton becoming a shut down corner and starter NOW would be a major help. Without those kinds of leaps, it won't do much beyond bulk up our depth, which is not where we are deficient. This is why trading back for more Draft Picks makes very, very little sense. We don't need more roster fillers and depth. If anything, we should be trading UP to get targeted talent to lead this team NOW.

 

[gimpy]

Sounds like a reasonable opinion.

Agreed about the incremental progress only yielding slight benefits. What needs to happen is that Big Johns need to be drafted or developed NOW. If MHJ can take a leap, that will be a major help. If somehow Benson becomes a stud and fills in when JC goes down, again, that would be a major help. Melton becoming a shut down corner and starter NOW would be a major help. Without those kinds of leaps, it won't do much beyond bulk up our depth, which is not where we are deficient. This is why trading back for more Draft Picks makes very, very little sense. We don't need more roster fillers and depth. If anything, we should be trading UP to get targeted talent to lead this team NOW.

 

[ASUCHRIS]

Agreed about the incremental progress only yielding slight benefits. What needs to happen is that Big Johns need to be drafted or developed NOW. If MHJ can take a leap, that will be a major help. If somehow Benson becomes a stud and fills in when JC goes down, again, that would be a major help. Melton becoming a shut down corner and starter NOW would be a major help. Without those kinds of leaps, it won't do much beyond bulk up our depth, which is not where we are deficient. This is why trading back for more Draft Picks makes very, very little sense. We don't need more roster fillers and depth. If anything, we should be trading UP to get targeted talent to lead this team NOW.

I've been railing for years that we're in desperate need of above average starters, and for the most part (sans Tomlinson/Sweat), it's been entirely hoping that draft capital will solve the problem. We're still waiting, and still can't compare to the tops teams 3 years into this experiment. In the meantime, the Rams with less valuable draft picks have run circles around our FO, acquiring instant impact players. (Who knew that was a thing?) Good times!

 

[kerouac9]

90% of your posts are slamming a point without offering anything to qualify your own POV, dude

But returned from a birthday party with the kids - Metrics as promised...

Here is the list of the OTs ranked higher than PJJ in the league and their respective PFF grade - elite grading is 85+.

Tristan Wirfs - between pro bowl and elite as rookie with 84.8, so I'll count that in​

Jordan Mailata - Elite level in his 4th year
2018 - No snaps
2019 - No Snaps
2020 - 70,4
2021 - 88.3

Penei Sewell - Elite level in his 3rd year​

2021 - 77.0
2022 - 80.6
2023 - 92.8
2024 - 89.6

Lane Johnson - Elite level in his 7th year
2013 - 74.9
2014 - 83.5
2015 - 74.8
2016 - 84.6
2017 - 80.6
2018 - 80.1
2019 - 88.8

Terron Armstead - Elite level in his 3rd year
2013 - 76.3
2014 - 78.6
2015 - 92.5

Trent Williams - Elite level in his 4th year
2010 - 63.4
2011 - 79.0
2012 - 80.4
2013 - 91.8

Bernanrd Reiman - Elite Level in his 3rd year
2022 - 73.3
2023 - 82.7
2024 - 85.1

Christian Darrisaw - Elite Level in his 2nd year
2021 - 71.9
2022 - 90.1

Rashad Slater - Very good as rookie but not Elite level until his 4th year
2021 - 83.6
2022 - 84.0
2023 - 76.6
2024 - 90.9

Zach Tom - Elite level in his 3rd year
2022 - 68.3
2023 - 79.7
2024 - 85.8

Charles Cross - have not reached elite level yet after 3 seasons
2022 - 63.1
2023 - 67.6
2024 - 82.5

PJJ - have not reached elite level yet after 2 seasons
2023 - 60.6
2024 - 80.8

I don't make wild assertions of fact and then get Big Mad when they're challenged.

As always, PFF grades are pure hokum. They're not acceptable as evidence for me. Do better.

Second, if your argument were "it takes time for OL to develop into above average starters," I'd completely agree with you. But that's not the assertion you made. Here's the assertion that you made:

- PJJ is already a good LT and will not develop despite every single OT in league usually breaks through in their 3rd year

9 of 10 Elite OTs do not reach their level until their 3rd year.

It doesn't even seem like your own fake metrics bear that out.

And then there's just a pure logic error in saying that because some OTs break out and become elite in their third season it will probably happen for PJJ in his third. There's no causal relationship there.

Again, it's not unfair to single out your weakest arguments and hold them up for scrutiny. That's what argumentation is. That's how logic works. If it makes you sad, have stronger arguments or assume that when you say something controversial it's gonna be questioned.

 

[DVontel]

If you are banking on young player "improvement" to boost win totals...I agree there are probably only a handful of players on the roster who matter.

Isaiah Adams. If he can develop into a better OG than Evan Brown in year 2, that will make a small difference.

Max Melton. If he can supplant SMB or STV, that makes a small difference.

Darius Robinson. If he can be the 2nd best DL player in year 2, that will make a large difference.

Trey Benson. If Benson can be a 40%-50% RB back with Conner, that will make a small difference.

BJ Ojulari. If he can get into the rotation and play 40%-50% snaps, that will make a small difference. Interestingly enough, I think his job is a little in jeopardy depending on the draft. He is currently EDGE 4 on the roster behind Sweat, Collins and Browning. I understand Rallis likes to rotate, but his role right now looks to be Collins backup. Monti could easily go EDGE in one of the first three rounds, and now Ojulari is bottom of the group.

We sure Collins isn’t a backup himself & Sweat/Browning aren’t the starters?

 

[Chopper0080]

I've been railing for years that we're in desperate need of above average starters, and for the most part (sans Tomlinson/Sweat), it's been entirely hoping that draft capital will solve the problem. We're still waiting, and still can't compare to the tops teams 3 years into this experiment. In the meantime, the Rams with less valuable draft picks have run circles around our FO, acquiring instant impact players. (Who knew that was a thing?) Good times!

I am going to defend Monti a bit. TBF, Les Snead has been the GM of the Rams since 2012.Also, his coach has been McVay since 2017. There is a different level of knowledge regarding scheme, player type, roster that comes with that level of stability. Cardinals aren't even close to that.

 

[Chopper0080]

We sure Collins isn’t a backup himself & Sweat/Browning aren’t the starters?

I could be wrong, but I don't see the Cardinals starting a 251lb edge and a 240lb edge in a division that is as run heavy as the NFC West looks to be. depending on how the draft goes, I could see Sweat and Browning on the field together in situations, but I believe it will be situational.

Again, no inside knowledge, but thinking about the ability to play shell coverage out of base and nickel and still stop the run.

 

[kerouac9]

We sure Collins isn’t a backup himself & Sweat/Browning aren’t the starters?

Not sure, but the Cards sure seem to like Collins a bunch and Browning missed 25% of this tackles during his time here last year(!!!!).

Collins has an inch and 20 lbs on Browning (All this according to PFR). I'm sure we'll use a bunch of combinations trying to find the right thing, but on first and second down I imagine we'll have Sweat mainly rushing the passer with the DL and Collins in a more flexible role depending on the read.

 

[unseenaz]

I don't make wild assertions of fact and then get Big Mad when they're challenged.

As always, PFF grades are pure hokum. They're not acceptable as evidence for me. Do better.

Second, if your argument were "it takes time for OL to develop into above average starters," I'd completely agree with you. But that's not the assertion you made. Here's the assertion that you made:





It doesn't even seem like your own fake metrics bear that out.

And then there's just a pure logic error in saying that because some OTs break out and become elite in their third season it will probably happen for PJJ in his third. There's no causal relationship there.

Again, it's not unfair to single out your weakest arguments and hold them up for scrutiny. That's what argumentation is. That's how logic works. If it makes you sad, have stronger arguments or assume that when you say something controversial it's gonna be questioned.

PFF grades are usually a lazy way to label a player and a terrible marker for some positions, but for O-line and D-line specifically it’s a reasonable tool to compare multiple players across the position with.

 

[kerouac9]

PFF grades are usually a lazy way to label a player and a terrible marker for some positions, but for O-line and D-line specifically it’s a reasonable tool to compare multiple players across the position with.

I'd generally agree with that but (1) they don't seem to be very predictive of future performance and (2) players and coaches generally disagree when asked about the PFF grade of X or Y player.

Also, they're not real metrics, they're graded by individuals with the usual biases and imperfections that go with it. What is the difference between an 85 and an 83? Is it really so much that one player is "elite" and the other isn't?

I don't think so.

The DVOA guys had a blown blocks metric that I liked a lot, but I haven't bought their annual since they left the old site/the old site stopped issuing paychecks. I'll probably get it this year (part of the problem is that FTN is pretty clearly a gambling-adjacent site, and I don't want to get blocked by my work computer.

For OL especially, I feel like All Pro teams are the best measure of elite status, followed by Pro Bowl. It's more transparently squishy than PFF grades are, but that's where it is.

 

[Mulli]

I'd generally agree with that but (1) they don't seem to be very predictive of future performance and (2) players and coaches generally disagree when asked about the PFF grade of X or Y player.

Also, they're not real metrics, they're graded by individuals with the usual biases and imperfections that go with it. What is the difference between an 85 and an 83? Is it really so much that one player is "elite" and the other isn't?

I don't think so.

The DVOA guys had a blown blocks metric that I liked a lot, but I haven't bought their annual since they left the old site/the old site stopped issuing paychecks. I'll probably get it this year (part of the problem is that FTN is pretty clearly a gambling-adjacent site, and I don't want to get blocked by my work computer.

For OL especially, I feel like All Pro teams are the best measure of elite status, followed by Pro Bowl. It's more transparently squishy than PFF grades are, but that's where it is.

Tl; dr

 

[BirdGangThing]

didn't rashawn slater go probowl his rookie year?