Carlos Baerga

[AZZenny]

Hey, that Carlos Baerga - is he almost awesome, or what?!

 

[adbacksfan]

I say he is a keeper!
I love his hustle.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by schillingfan
"anti" can also mean opposite of as opposed to just being against something.

I believe Derek meant anti-fan, in the same vein as anti-hero. An anti-hero is not against heroes, an anti-hero is the opposite of a hero, or someone who's personality characteristics are the opposite of a hero.

Thus, as an anti-fan, he meant that your characteristics as a poster are the opposite of what a typical fan's characteristics are.COLOR]

Antihero is one word. No -

 

[AZZenny]

Yes, but I believe that goes on the William Safire Memorial Grammar and Syntax-head Thread, doesn't it?

Just for amusement, while most anti+ words do not have a - (or is it an -) some do, especially those that specify a cultural group or a name. Anti-Nordic, Anti-Western, Anti-Womack. But also, see anti-inflammatory, which is closer to what the good-fan (or is that goodfan) bad-fan (etc.) debate could use.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by AZZenny
Yes, but I believe that goes on the William Safire Memorial Grammar and Syntax-head Thread, doesn't it?COLOR]

Send me a link.

 

[Ryanwb]

Damn, a Rlakin bashing thread, I was too busy pissing and moaning about the Cardinals and I missed it.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Ryanwb
Damn, a Rlakin bashing thread, I was too busy pissing and moaning about the Cardinals and I missed it.

Yeah, we've already had one of those on the other board. You participated if I remember correctly and didn't look too good in the end.

http://www.arizonasportsfans.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6036

 

[Ryanwb]

By all means, pay yourself on the back a little more. How does that saying go?....even a blind squirrel finds a nut now and again

 

[AZZenny]

OK, back to the general topic - BB says he will make the first position-player cuts this weekend. Obviously Baerga is safe, and I'd think Donnels. Most likely all the babybacks will get sent across the street - Olson, Hammock, Morales, Kata, DeVore and Terrero - assuming Dellucci is back in working condition. Mike Bell? Cintron?

 

[Moose Lady]

Originally posted by AZZenny
OK, back to the general topic - BB says he will make the first position-player cuts this weekend. Obviously Baerga is safe, and I'd think Donnels. Most likely all the babybacks will get sent across the street - Olson, Hammock, Morales, Kata, DeVore and Terrero - assuming Dellucci is back in working condition. Mike Bell? Cintron?

OHHHH NOOOOOOOO I'm going down this weekend and I want to see ALL of them.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Hey Lakin, Overbay's only been in the organization now for 3 years or so, and it's not like he came out of nowhere. He's been getting pub ever since he became the first player in the history of baseball to have over 100 RBI in short season rookie ball.

Wandering through the thread looking for some actual baseball talk and I stumbled upon this statement by Derek. When he first posted this it kinda stuck in my head because it sounded so impressive to me, yet had a bit of that "Mark Grace has the most hits in the 90's" feel to it.

Like Grace's "record" in that getting a lot of hits is nice but choosing an arbitrary limit to make him first.

Overbay getting so many RBIs is a good thing, yet there are some --what seem-- arbitrary and external factors that add to Overbay's "record"

Firstly Overbay was a 22 yr old playing in a league of 19 yr olds. I don't care if he was only drafted in the 18th round, when there is a 3 year age difference he must have felt like he was repeating his freshman year in college. I doubt there are very many 22 yr olds playing short season rookie ball in the history of the minors.

Secondly, as a 22 yr old Overbay got to play in almost all of those games. There is a tendancy for a successful minor leaguer to get moved up from one league to another when he appears to be under-matched. Similar to Overbay going from A-ball South Bend to AA El Paso in 2000. So I doubt even a lot of the players under 22 that were playing good ball would have stayed down for the whole season. RBIs are a counting stat that requires oppertunities and you don't get those if you don't play in the games.

This leads into the third thing I noticed about Overbay's 1999 season. He had 101 RBIs in 105 hits. Either Overbay was extremely "clutch" that year or he practically always had a man on base when he was up. I wasn't able to find the teams stats to see who was the OBP machine in front of him if there was one, but it might have been Closser.

J.D Closser was playing on that same team that year as a 19 yr old C. He played in 76 games (1 more than Overbay) and --although he didn't hit as well as Overbay-- had a damn good season. Closser had 14 less hits in 30 less ABs and managed a .971 OPS scoring 73 runs (.458 OBP). Overbays OPS was 1.006. What amazed me is that Closser had 71 BBs in 76 games on top of his 86 hits. Closser only managed to get 54 RBIs, a little over 1/2 of Overbay's.

Seems to me that Closser had the better year on the 1999 Missoula team even though Overbay holds the "record". Closser had similar numbers at a much more difficult defensive position and at 3 years younger age than Overbay. This piles on the belief that the DBacks didn't move Overbay up the ladder well possibly caused by starting him on too low a rung in the first place.

 

[RLakin]

Very interesting. I can't say I'm too familiar with Overbay, and I don't put too much stock in minor league, let alone rookie ball numbers. I don't think he D-backs do either. Otherwise Alex Cabrera would still be in their organization.
I thought Overbay's hitting over .300 and driving in 100 runners on a consistent basis was impressive, although his HR totals were very low. I guess that's why all the Grace analogies.

 

[schillingfan]

Originally posted by DWKB
Firstly Overbay was a 22 yr old playing in a league of 19 yr olds. I don't care if he was only drafted in the 18th round, when there is a 3 year age difference he must have felt like he was repeating his freshman year in college. I doubt there are very many 22 yr olds playing short season rookie ball in the history of the minors.

I don't think that statement is true. Since the amateur draft is in June and a player, even an 18 year old just out of high school won't go to the team until after he has graduated, I think that most players go right into rookie ball after they are drated rather than low "a" ball, since rookie ball is short season and doesn't really start until June or so anyway.

I could be wrong of course.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

Well you can dissect it all you want DWKB, but my point wasn't the achievement itself, but all the publicity it generated. I know that RBI is a team stat more than an individual player's stat. I just couldn't understand how somebody who claimed to "follow the team" didn't know about Overbay. But then Lakin just follows the ones close to home that he can throw smack at. There isn't any fun in running smack at players in Missoula, Yakima, and South Bend, right Rod?

I don't put too much stock in minor league, let alone rookie ball numbers. I don't think he D-backs do either. Otherwise Alex Cabrera would still be in their organization.

How would you know? You just got through saying you don't know anything about the DBacks minor league system. Cabrera couldn't hit a curve ball, was old to be even considered a prospect, and had an attitude/ego problem,. That's why he isn't even in MLB, and that's why he isn't getting any offers even though he's hitting a ton of home runs over in Japan.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
You just got through saying you don't know anything about the DBacks minor league system.

Another lie.

Like most fans who watch D-Backs broadcasts and read the newspaper, I've known about Overbay for awhile. I just haven't seen him play enough to have a take on what type of player he is. His stats suggest certain things, but as I said earlier on this thread, interrepting stats doesn't always tell the whole story. When I see him play, I'll know more.
As to Cabrera, I think the latter of your suggestions is why he was moved out of the organization. I don't think anybody can hit 50 HRs in a professional league and be still have that "can't hit a curve ball" label. That label seems to accompany young power hitters a lot, similar to the defensive sterotype that DWKB explained about Overbay.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

So instead of taking 4 years worth of numbers, you'll base your opinion on Overbay by seeing him just how many times? Maybe DWKB can explain to you the significance of minor league numbers and how they can be used to project major league performance. I'm sure he can find some material for you to read about Bill James and MLEs.

Did you watch Cabrera when he was with the Diamondbacks in 2000? If you did then you would have seen all those swings and misses at offspeed pitches. But who knows, maybe he cured that ill when he got to Japan. I do know that he was abysmal in the 2nd half of 2000, and if he really was all that, don't you think the DBacks would have gotten some kind of offer from another MLB club?

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
So instead of taking 4 years worth of numbers, you'll base your opinion on Overbay by seeing him just how many times? Maybe DWKB can explain to you the significance of minor league numbers and how they can be used to project major league performance. I'm sure he can find some material for you to read about Bill James and MLEs.

Did you watch Cabrera when he was with the Diamondbacks in 2000? If you did then you would have seen all those swings and misses at offspeed pitches. But who knows, maybe he cured that ill when he got to Japan. I do know that he was abysmal in the 2nd half of 2000, and if he really was all that, don't you think the DBacks would have gotten some kind of offer from another MLB club?

Again, I never said that my opinion was solely based on numbers nor on just seeing him play. Rather that I like to take to take in a combination of the two before making a whole hearted player evaluation, especially when all we have are minor league numbers, which I think DWKB explained in the thread, can sometimes be skewed.
Also, I never suggested that the D-Backs should have, could, would, or wanted to trade Cabrera, but if their sole factor for minor league evaluations was statistics then Cabrera (who tore up their system) would probably still be around. He's not, though, and probably more because of the attitude than anything else. If he had a good attitude, I presume that the organization would have kept him around to help solve some of the deficiencies that you cite above.

 

[Derek in Tucson]

You'll have to pardon me if I don't trust your judgmenet after you see Overbay play in person. Just from reading your material over the last year or so, I don't think I can trust you to give an unbiased view. And nno, the DBacks don't don't use stats exclusively, but then they have actual baseball scouts to watch them and not some self appointed journalist.

And DWKB's post on Overbay's RBI total in minor league ball doesn't point out any real skew of the numbers. Any decent baseball fan knows that RBI isn't a good stat to look at when judging a hitter, and that age vs league has to be taken into context. Those are just basic prinicples.

 

[RLakin]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
You'll have to pardon me if I don't trust your judgmenet after you see Overbay play in person.

Didn't ask. Don't care.

 

[DWKB]

Originally posted by Derek in Tucson
Well you can dissect it all you want DWKB, but my point wasn't the achievement itself, but all the publicity it generated. I know that RBI is a team stat more than an individual player's stat.

Well my disecting the statement was more for my benifit than to say anything about your intentions. What you said is a fact and I don't think you attempted to be misleading regarding the meaning behind it, but I can see how people will read the statement and interpret more out of it than was there. I just wanted to lay out my though process and discovery.


Yes, minor league numbers do mean something and there are teams who use them regularly and are rather successful at it. Right now OAK has an OF (Rontrez Johnson) and 2 middle relief pitchers that they picked up in the Rule 5 draft soley based on their minor league numbers. They are evaluating them in ST now that they've taken them of course but this doesn't change the fact that the numbers were used and are useful.

Yes there are things that you've got to keep in mind when looking at minor league numbers but it's not that different than looking at MLB numbers. They age vs. league aspect is about the only main difference but you've still gotta keep in mind park factors and such. Those are easily adjusted for though if you just pay attention.