I think there are a lot of franchises that would rather miss games (even a season or two) than return to business as usual or anything near that. IMO, almost all the giving, almost all the compromising is going to have to come from the players side and I just don't think they will be willing to do that until things turn dire for many of them. I don't think it's a game of chicken at all, the owners are not bluffing.
Steve
The nba is making more money than ever. The problem is players AND revenue sharing. Right now, in order for the system to work, small market teams have to remain under the lux tax, and large market teams have to go way over. But when large market teams do not, they make tons more money. When small market teams go over, they lose tons.
Small market owners have a choice, be competitive or lose money. Sometimes its both. Cleveland could not afford to put quality players around LeBron, so LeBron bolted for Miami. Its a catch-22 for those teams.
IMO, the real need is some sort of substantive revenue sharing AND a limitation on free agency, especially for star players. These things have to happen.
1. Teams must be allowed a franchise player tag. Salary must be appropriate but teams must be able to keep their primary player.
2. Some sort of signing bonus/non-guaranteed contract system must be implemented. I think it should be an immediate buyout clause on every contract. Teams should be able to buyout any player for something like 60% of the remaining value of his contract. It allows teams to get out from under those huge, bad contracts that just cripple teams. For most players, they will not be out any money since they will immediately become free agents. If they are worth at least 40% of their previous deal on the open market, they will lose nothing. Its a reasonable compromise.
3. Some sort of revenue sharing must be in place. I am not sure how TV revenues are split now, but that might be the place.