Renz
An Army of One
Don't Believe the (Preseason) Hype
Which teams are the most consistently overrated (and underrated) by the preseason polls?
By Richard Cirminiello
Since 1971, 31 college football programs have graced the AP’s preseason Top 20—Top 25 beginning in 1989—at least 10 different years. Some have routinely lived up to their expectations, rewarding voters by either meeting or exceeding summer expectations with a solid season. Many others over the last 35 years, however, have not been as kind to the pollsters, often fading quickly and failing to meet their advanced billing.
Beyond being just interesting factoids and fodder for message boards, it’s relevant to understand which programs have historically received the benefit of the doubt in August, only to tank once the one meaningful barometer of success—live action—begins in September.
Preseason polls are vital because they establish expectations and give those chosen schools a decided head start in the race for a national championship. And if Behemoth U. is getting a perennial lofty ranking because of its reputation and national notoriety, well, that’s cause for a closer look. There’s little debate that biases exist in the rankings, but until preseason and postseason polls are compared side-by-side, it’s difficult to truly and tangibly know which schools have been overrated and which have earned their station on the charts.
For this exercise, we’ve sampled AP rankings from the last 35 years and are only evaluating schools that have been recognized in 10 or more preseason polls. Trying to cull some meaning out of, say, Kansas, Indiana or any other school that makes a once-every-decade cameo in summer rankings would prove fruitless.
Composite score represents the average annual number of spots a school's final ranking fell below its preseason ranking since 1971.
The 31 teams that have been at least ten preseason AP polls ...
The Most Underrated Team Has Been ...
31. Miami – The ‘Canes were a little late getting to this party, but once they arrived in the early 1980s, they were here to stay. The 1983 team traveled from No. 20 to No. 1, and kicked off a 10-year stretch in which Miami finished in the Top 10 eight times. Since that championship season, they’ve also crashed and burned just once. That was the one-year rebuilding period of 1997, when the ‘Canes went 5-6, lost by 47 to Florida State and had a rare postseason without a bowl game.
*Composite Score: -2.41
30. Florida State – To understand Florida State’s place in this analysis, all you really need to know is that from 1987 to 2000, the ‘Noles never finished a year outside the AP’s Top 5, a truly incomprehensible accomplishment. Now, the program hasn’t been back to that zip code since, which is why they’ve recently fallen behind Miami. Not since 1983, when they lost five games, has Florida State finished a season unranked that they began in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: -2.64
29. Virginia Tech – The Hokies’ first preseason AP ranking didn’t occur until 1994, but they’ve attracted enough attention to pick up the requisite 10 mentions to qualify for this debate. They’ve replaced spectacular with steady, notching at least seven wins and a bowl berth in each of the last 13 seasons. The bottom has yet to fall out since they started getting respect in the polls, and they’ve had just enough double-digit jumps in the polls to manufacture a very respectable composite score.
*Composite Score: -2.70
28. Nebraska – Of those programs that have been preseason ranked in at least 30 of the last 35 years, none has been more reliable and consistent than Nebraska. Considering that there’s always been far more territory in the rankings background than foreground, the Huskers’ composite score is alarmingly good. The numbers paint a clear picture of sustained dominance. Nebraska has been ranked at the beginning of the year 32 times since 1971, yet finished just one of those seasons—2002—unranked. And of the 29 times the Huskers started in the Top 10, they stayed there until January 23 times.
*Composite Score: -3.25
27. Georgia – Georgia’s strength has come from its ability to fool the forecasters more regularly than any other team in college football over the last 35 years. They’ve been ranked in the preseason two dozen times and have met or exceeded expectations a cool dozen of those years. That’s helped to offset the inevitable slip and fall that bit the Dawgs in 1977 and 1993. Since Mark Richt arrived five years ago, the program has continued its positive trend, climbing the rankings three years and sliding just four spots in 2004.
*Composite Score: -3.29
26. Oklahoma – There were some dark days in the 1990s, when Oklahoma wasn’t Oklahoma, but the Sooners built a foundation of success and reliability in the 1970s and 1980s that still endures today. For an amazing 10-year run beginning in 1971, OU either met or passed its preseason placement nine times, mostly under the watchful eye of Barry Switzer. Before last season’s decline, Bob Stoops was building an unmistakable bridge to those glory days of Oklahoma football. The 2000 team came from the No. 19 hole to cop that year’s national championship.
*Composite Score: -3.68
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes are a fixture in the preseason polls, and they’ve earned that luxury through consistency. Ohio State has rarely deviated far from expectations, and when they do, it’s often in a northern direction, such as the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 squads, all of which were +6 or better at the end of the year. The one gross deviation that sticks out came from John Cooper’s 1999 team, which was picked ninth when the season kicked off, but went 6-6 and became the first Buckeye team in 11 years not to play in a bowl game.
*Composite Score: - 4.06
24. Michigan – Since 1971, no school has been ranked in the AP preseason poll more times than the Wolverines. They’ve been unranked just once, in 1985, a slight that prompted a defensively-dominant 10-1-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl victory over Nebraska. Last year’s unexpected freefall to 7-5 represented just the second time in the last 35 years that Michigan began the year in the Top 25, yet couldn’t maintain their ranking at the end of the bowl season.
*Composite Score: -4.21
23. Penn State – The 21st century has been a rollercoaster ride in Happy Valley, but the previous three decades held few surprises. Penn State was about as steady as they come from 1971 to 1999, giving voters the confidence they needed to champion them in the polls every summer. And they rarely disappointed. In fact, the Lions have improved their preseason ranking 15 times in 35 years, more than any other school in college football during that time. Recent black eyes in 2000 and 2003 have thwarted some momentum, and raised questions how the program will respond when ranked later this summer.
*Composite Score: -4.25
22. Alabama – For much of the last 35 years, ‘Bama has been as consistent as, well, the tides. There have been the occasional flops, but, year after year, few programs have been better at meeting or exceeding August expectations. From 1971 to 1981, the Tide won a pair of national championships and never fell more than four spots from their preseason perch. Deduct the debacle that was the Mike DuBose era, and ‘Bama soars to right behind Virginia Tech as the least overrated program. On DuBose’s watch, the team sunk to new depths in 1997 and 2000 just a year after winning 10 games.
*Composite Score: - 4.43
21. Washington – Those with short memories will forget just how competitive the Huskies were from the late 1970s until just a few years ago. They were the Pac-10’s most consistent program over that time, and as it turns out, the most underrated as well. Voters just never quite gave them enough preseason credit. From 1979 to 1984, they blew past their ranking four times, easily the best of any school during that stretch. All hasn’t been rosy in Seattle, however. Washington sunk badly in 2002 and 2003, and haven’t sniffed the polls since losing to Nevada three years ago.
*Composite Score: -5.63
20. Iowa – The Hawkeyes have had their share of disappointing years, such as 1988, 1989, 1992 and last fall, but have been able to offset those seasons with unexpectedly strong campaigns along the way. Iowa has gone north in the polls in nearly half of their 13 preseason appearances, which is well above the national average. Hayden Fry coached up his kids an impressive five different times between 1983 and 1996, and Kirk Ferentz has done his part to keep that tradition alive.
*Composite Score: -5.85
19. Florida – With Steve Spurrier on the sidelines, Florida never deviated more than seven spots from their preseason ranking in 12 years. With Doug Dickey, Charley Pell, Galen Hall and Ron Zook at the helm, the Gators were far less predictable, often sliding double digits or completely out of the picture by the time bowls began. Where the school goes from here is in the hands of Urban Meyer, who began with a solid -2 in his quest to guide the Gators back to being a perennial player in the SEC and national title chases.
*Composite Score: -6.08
18. BYU – There was a time between 1980 and 1994 that you couldn’t keep the Cougars off the preseason charts. That feels like a long time ago since the program has been ranked in the summer just once in the last 11 years. BYU really exploded on to the scene in 1979, paving the way for a No. 12 finish the following year. At that point, it was impossible to sneak up on anyone, and the bar was instantly raised to a level that wasn’t so easy to reach. From 1982 to 1993, the Cougars failed to match or surpass their preseason ranking in all eight years they were recognized. Ironically, that 1984 team that went 13-0 and won the national championship began the season outside the Top 20.
*Composite Score: - 6.33
17. Tennessee – Like so many teams in the SEC, Tennessee is a program that, historically, you can rank, put up your feet and assume they won’t make you look bad. Of course, last year was a huge exception to that rule. The 2005 Vols had the look of a fringe national championship contender, but wound up slipping under .500 for the first time in 17 years and playing the role of one of the year’s biggest disappointments. The 1998 squad that beat Florida State for the national title began the year at No. 10.
*Composite Score: -6.67
16. LSU – Throughout the years, LSU has been easy to predict for voters. With only a couple of exceptions, the program has rarely strayed far from its preseason poll position, a consistency that still exists today. Those exceptions in 1989 and 1998, however, were egregious enough to keep the Tigers from joining the elite programs in this evaluation. Both of those teams began the season in the AP’s Top 10, and ended it with hard-to-explain 4-7 records.
*Composite Score: -6.74
15. Maryland –Every ten years or so, the Terps emerge from their shells, and string a few solid seasons together that are worthy of preseason recognition. They peaked with a sweet run under Jerry Claiborne in the mid 1970s, and had a Ralph Friedgen-led revival a few years ago, but lost some steam in the 1980s by falling a little short of some lofty projections. All in all, not bad, considering 2004 was the only time Maryland slipped below .500 the same year they were ranked in the AP’s preseason poll.
*Composite Score: - 7.10
14. Clemson – The Tigers have been pretty steady throughout the last 35 years, rarely having one of those heinous seasons that sends voters scurrying in other directions for a few years. 1992 was one of those uncommon and particularly rough falls for Clemson fans. The Tigers entered the season ranked No. 13 and riding a fancy five-year streak of at least nine wins, but struggled to win close games and sagged to a 5-6 mark.
*Composite Score: -7.19
13. USC – The Trojans were like granite, and then the 1990s began, and Troy showed serious signs of erosion. The most significant problems arose in 1991, 1996, 1997 and 1999, when USC got the benefit of the doubt from voters, but couldn’t even get a low-level bowl invitation in December. The tide has obviously turned since Pete Carroll’s arrival, but it’s going to take a few more Top 5 finishes in order to offset the damage done by Paul Hackett and John Robinson: The Sequel.
*Composite Score: - 7.73
12. Texas A&M – It’s been a three-decade rollercoaster ride for the Aggies in the polls, but it’s the last trimester that’s most responsible for their residence in the bottom half of this list. While the 1970s were a time to regain a foothold in the nation’s conscience, since 1995, A&M has failed to live up to its advanced billing six of the last seven times it was preseason ranked. None was more egregious than 2005, however, when an Aggie squad chock full of talent slumped to 5-6 and needed rallies to beat Baylor and I-AA Texas State.
*Composite Score: - 8.68
T10. UCLA – Save for Washington and Washington State, which didn’t qualify, the Pac-10 doesn’t fare particularly well in this discussion. Witness UCLA, one of the most difficult programs to size up each year. When you think up they’re up, they’re down. And when you think they’re down, they wind up winning 10 games, such as last year. The Bruins have historically done an awful job of living up to their talent, failing to maintain preseason rankings 75% of the time and dropping completely out of the polls nearly once every two years. From 1989 to 1995, UCLA received preseason love from the voters five times, yet ended just one of those seasons in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: - 9.96
T10. Texas – Alright, it’s damn tough to sell Texas as overrated with last year’s national championship still fresh in our minds, however, since 1971, this has, by no measure, been one of the most consistent programs in the country. The ‘Horns get weighed down by 1976, 1988, 1991 and 1997, four losing seasons in the face of lofty preseason predictions. Good thing for Mack Brown. Remove the coach’s tenure from the record books, and Texas is just behind Michigan State, or dangerously close to being college football’s most overrated school of the last 35 years.
*Composite Score: -9.96
9. Colorado – Bookended around Colorado’s national prominence in the 1990s has been a trend of mediocrity and missed targets. In its three preseason poll appearances in the 1970s, the Buffs could only manage a single bowl game. And since 1996, they’ve been ranked five times, and finished below expectations each year. Voters finally cooled on Colorado after the 2000 campaign, when they sunk to 3-8, the school’s sorriest performance in 16 years.
*Composite Score: -10.33
8. Notre Dame – Rejoice, Irish haters. The 35-year evidence bears out your long-held belief that Notre Dame football gets way more credit in the polls than it deserves. The Irish have been ranked in 30 preseasons since 1971, but have been able to maintain or improve upon that projection a mere eight times. And on 11 occasions, they slid completely off the charts by the time the final bowl game had been played. The last three times Notre Dame was ranked in the preseason—1999, 2001 and 2003—it failed to manufacture more than five wins.
*Composite Score: -10.40
7. Auburn – Remember, this is a 35-year review, not just a recent peek at history. The Tigers have vexed experts the last few years, but from 1971 to 1998, they were nearly three times more likely to go south than north when beginning the season ranked. And the declines were often precipitous. The 1973, 1975, 1980, 1991 and 1998 editions all opened the year ranked, but failed to even have winning records, a surefire way to earn the distinction of being one of college football’s most overrated programs.
*Composite Score: -11.19
6. North Carolina – Carolina has had 11 chances since 1971 to prove they belong in the national forum in football, but has never really soared past preseason poll expectations. Now, they were outstanding in the early 1980s under Dick Crum, going 37-9 to open the decade, but that surprised no one. What did catch observers off guard were the 1973 and 1978 teams, both of which began the season in the Top 20, but ended it below .500.
*Composite Score: -11.36
5. Arkansas – Under Houston Nutt, the Hogs have earned a reputation as a plucky, overachieving bunch, but that’s a stark contrast to the early days of this study, when the program was more likely to tank than remain ranked. Arkansas broke voters’ straws in 1990 by going from No. 14 in the preseason to 3-8, the school’s first non-winning year in a quarter of a century. Since then, they’ve gained the confidence of preseason pollsters just once, in 1999.
*Composite Score: -11.40
4. Pittsburgh – Pitt was far more relevant to the rankings in the 1970s and 1980s, when players like Hugh Green, Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino called the Steel City home. Over the past two decades, however, voters have tabbed the Panthers just five times in the summer, and considering their performance, the lack of respect was warranted. In four of those years, they failed to remain in the polls, marked by a pair of 3-7-1 disasters in 1984 and 1990. Dave Wannstedt’s first Pitt team began 2005 No. 23 in the country, but only managed five wins in a forgettable return home for the coach.
*Composite Score: -11.71
3. Arizona State – The Sun Devils have long been one of college football’s most schizophrenic programs, underachieving when big things are predicted and catching everyone by surprise when little is expected. They regularly outperformed forecasts in the first half of the 1970s, but gave a harbinger of the future in 1976, going 4-7 after beginning the season No. 3 in the country and riding a 13-game winning streak. Of the 17 times since 1971 that ASU began a season ranked, they ended 10 of those years somewhere on the outskirts of the Top 25.
*Composite Score: - 11.94
2. Wisconsin – The Badgers didn’t become a preseason player until the mid-1990s, but they’ve been a fixture ever since. Whether that’s been warranted is up for debate. After playing the role of media darlings in 1998 and 1999 with unexpected Big Ten crowns and Rose Bowl triumphs, they’ve been disappointing ever since. Wisconsin got the nod five straight years after beating Stanford 17-9 in the 2000 Rose Bowl, but underachieved noticeably in four of those seasons. The Pasadena afterglow finally faded, pollsters, for the first time since 1996, gave the Badgers the cold shoulder in 2005. And, naturally, hard-to-figure Wisky responded with 10 wins and a No. 15 ranking in the final AP poll.
*Composite Score: -12.50
The Most Overrated Team Has Been ...
1. Michigan State – No matter how good they look or how many starters are back, do not do it. Do not champion the Spartans, America’s most overrated college football program. Resist that temptation and you’ll prove wiser than your peers in the end. Ten times since 1971, Michigan State has been ranked in the preseason. In nine of those years, they ended the season unranked. And there are some real clunkers in the school vault, including Bobby Williams’ last team, which opened 2002 at No. 17, yet could only manage four victories and a host of off-field missteps.
*Composite Score: -19.80
http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2006/Columnists/RC/OverratedTeams.htm
Which teams are the most consistently overrated (and underrated) by the preseason polls?
By Richard Cirminiello
Since 1971, 31 college football programs have graced the AP’s preseason Top 20—Top 25 beginning in 1989—at least 10 different years. Some have routinely lived up to their expectations, rewarding voters by either meeting or exceeding summer expectations with a solid season. Many others over the last 35 years, however, have not been as kind to the pollsters, often fading quickly and failing to meet their advanced billing.
Beyond being just interesting factoids and fodder for message boards, it’s relevant to understand which programs have historically received the benefit of the doubt in August, only to tank once the one meaningful barometer of success—live action—begins in September.
Preseason polls are vital because they establish expectations and give those chosen schools a decided head start in the race for a national championship. And if Behemoth U. is getting a perennial lofty ranking because of its reputation and national notoriety, well, that’s cause for a closer look. There’s little debate that biases exist in the rankings, but until preseason and postseason polls are compared side-by-side, it’s difficult to truly and tangibly know which schools have been overrated and which have earned their station on the charts.
For this exercise, we’ve sampled AP rankings from the last 35 years and are only evaluating schools that have been recognized in 10 or more preseason polls. Trying to cull some meaning out of, say, Kansas, Indiana or any other school that makes a once-every-decade cameo in summer rankings would prove fruitless.
Composite score represents the average annual number of spots a school's final ranking fell below its preseason ranking since 1971.
The 31 teams that have been at least ten preseason AP polls ...
The Most Underrated Team Has Been ...
31. Miami – The ‘Canes were a little late getting to this party, but once they arrived in the early 1980s, they were here to stay. The 1983 team traveled from No. 20 to No. 1, and kicked off a 10-year stretch in which Miami finished in the Top 10 eight times. Since that championship season, they’ve also crashed and burned just once. That was the one-year rebuilding period of 1997, when the ‘Canes went 5-6, lost by 47 to Florida State and had a rare postseason without a bowl game.
*Composite Score: -2.41
30. Florida State – To understand Florida State’s place in this analysis, all you really need to know is that from 1987 to 2000, the ‘Noles never finished a year outside the AP’s Top 5, a truly incomprehensible accomplishment. Now, the program hasn’t been back to that zip code since, which is why they’ve recently fallen behind Miami. Not since 1983, when they lost five games, has Florida State finished a season unranked that they began in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: -2.64
29. Virginia Tech – The Hokies’ first preseason AP ranking didn’t occur until 1994, but they’ve attracted enough attention to pick up the requisite 10 mentions to qualify for this debate. They’ve replaced spectacular with steady, notching at least seven wins and a bowl berth in each of the last 13 seasons. The bottom has yet to fall out since they started getting respect in the polls, and they’ve had just enough double-digit jumps in the polls to manufacture a very respectable composite score.
*Composite Score: -2.70
28. Nebraska – Of those programs that have been preseason ranked in at least 30 of the last 35 years, none has been more reliable and consistent than Nebraska. Considering that there’s always been far more territory in the rankings background than foreground, the Huskers’ composite score is alarmingly good. The numbers paint a clear picture of sustained dominance. Nebraska has been ranked at the beginning of the year 32 times since 1971, yet finished just one of those seasons—2002—unranked. And of the 29 times the Huskers started in the Top 10, they stayed there until January 23 times.
*Composite Score: -3.25
27. Georgia – Georgia’s strength has come from its ability to fool the forecasters more regularly than any other team in college football over the last 35 years. They’ve been ranked in the preseason two dozen times and have met or exceeded expectations a cool dozen of those years. That’s helped to offset the inevitable slip and fall that bit the Dawgs in 1977 and 1993. Since Mark Richt arrived five years ago, the program has continued its positive trend, climbing the rankings three years and sliding just four spots in 2004.
*Composite Score: -3.29
26. Oklahoma – There were some dark days in the 1990s, when Oklahoma wasn’t Oklahoma, but the Sooners built a foundation of success and reliability in the 1970s and 1980s that still endures today. For an amazing 10-year run beginning in 1971, OU either met or passed its preseason placement nine times, mostly under the watchful eye of Barry Switzer. Before last season’s decline, Bob Stoops was building an unmistakable bridge to those glory days of Oklahoma football. The 2000 team came from the No. 19 hole to cop that year’s national championship.
*Composite Score: -3.68
25. Ohio State – The Buckeyes are a fixture in the preseason polls, and they’ve earned that luxury through consistency. Ohio State has rarely deviated far from expectations, and when they do, it’s often in a northern direction, such as the 1993, 1994, 1995 and 1996 squads, all of which were +6 or better at the end of the year. The one gross deviation that sticks out came from John Cooper’s 1999 team, which was picked ninth when the season kicked off, but went 6-6 and became the first Buckeye team in 11 years not to play in a bowl game.
*Composite Score: - 4.06
24. Michigan – Since 1971, no school has been ranked in the AP preseason poll more times than the Wolverines. They’ve been unranked just once, in 1985, a slight that prompted a defensively-dominant 10-1-1 season and a Fiesta Bowl victory over Nebraska. Last year’s unexpected freefall to 7-5 represented just the second time in the last 35 years that Michigan began the year in the Top 25, yet couldn’t maintain their ranking at the end of the bowl season.
*Composite Score: -4.21
23. Penn State – The 21st century has been a rollercoaster ride in Happy Valley, but the previous three decades held few surprises. Penn State was about as steady as they come from 1971 to 1999, giving voters the confidence they needed to champion them in the polls every summer. And they rarely disappointed. In fact, the Lions have improved their preseason ranking 15 times in 35 years, more than any other school in college football during that time. Recent black eyes in 2000 and 2003 have thwarted some momentum, and raised questions how the program will respond when ranked later this summer.
*Composite Score: -4.25
22. Alabama – For much of the last 35 years, ‘Bama has been as consistent as, well, the tides. There have been the occasional flops, but, year after year, few programs have been better at meeting or exceeding August expectations. From 1971 to 1981, the Tide won a pair of national championships and never fell more than four spots from their preseason perch. Deduct the debacle that was the Mike DuBose era, and ‘Bama soars to right behind Virginia Tech as the least overrated program. On DuBose’s watch, the team sunk to new depths in 1997 and 2000 just a year after winning 10 games.
*Composite Score: - 4.43
21. Washington – Those with short memories will forget just how competitive the Huskies were from the late 1970s until just a few years ago. They were the Pac-10’s most consistent program over that time, and as it turns out, the most underrated as well. Voters just never quite gave them enough preseason credit. From 1979 to 1984, they blew past their ranking four times, easily the best of any school during that stretch. All hasn’t been rosy in Seattle, however. Washington sunk badly in 2002 and 2003, and haven’t sniffed the polls since losing to Nevada three years ago.
*Composite Score: -5.63
20. Iowa – The Hawkeyes have had their share of disappointing years, such as 1988, 1989, 1992 and last fall, but have been able to offset those seasons with unexpectedly strong campaigns along the way. Iowa has gone north in the polls in nearly half of their 13 preseason appearances, which is well above the national average. Hayden Fry coached up his kids an impressive five different times between 1983 and 1996, and Kirk Ferentz has done his part to keep that tradition alive.
*Composite Score: -5.85
19. Florida – With Steve Spurrier on the sidelines, Florida never deviated more than seven spots from their preseason ranking in 12 years. With Doug Dickey, Charley Pell, Galen Hall and Ron Zook at the helm, the Gators were far less predictable, often sliding double digits or completely out of the picture by the time bowls began. Where the school goes from here is in the hands of Urban Meyer, who began with a solid -2 in his quest to guide the Gators back to being a perennial player in the SEC and national title chases.
*Composite Score: -6.08
18. BYU – There was a time between 1980 and 1994 that you couldn’t keep the Cougars off the preseason charts. That feels like a long time ago since the program has been ranked in the summer just once in the last 11 years. BYU really exploded on to the scene in 1979, paving the way for a No. 12 finish the following year. At that point, it was impossible to sneak up on anyone, and the bar was instantly raised to a level that wasn’t so easy to reach. From 1982 to 1993, the Cougars failed to match or surpass their preseason ranking in all eight years they were recognized. Ironically, that 1984 team that went 13-0 and won the national championship began the season outside the Top 20.
*Composite Score: - 6.33
17. Tennessee – Like so many teams in the SEC, Tennessee is a program that, historically, you can rank, put up your feet and assume they won’t make you look bad. Of course, last year was a huge exception to that rule. The 2005 Vols had the look of a fringe national championship contender, but wound up slipping under .500 for the first time in 17 years and playing the role of one of the year’s biggest disappointments. The 1998 squad that beat Florida State for the national title began the year at No. 10.
*Composite Score: -6.67
16. LSU – Throughout the years, LSU has been easy to predict for voters. With only a couple of exceptions, the program has rarely strayed far from its preseason poll position, a consistency that still exists today. Those exceptions in 1989 and 1998, however, were egregious enough to keep the Tigers from joining the elite programs in this evaluation. Both of those teams began the season in the AP’s Top 10, and ended it with hard-to-explain 4-7 records.
*Composite Score: -6.74
15. Maryland –Every ten years or so, the Terps emerge from their shells, and string a few solid seasons together that are worthy of preseason recognition. They peaked with a sweet run under Jerry Claiborne in the mid 1970s, and had a Ralph Friedgen-led revival a few years ago, but lost some steam in the 1980s by falling a little short of some lofty projections. All in all, not bad, considering 2004 was the only time Maryland slipped below .500 the same year they were ranked in the AP’s preseason poll.
*Composite Score: - 7.10
14. Clemson – The Tigers have been pretty steady throughout the last 35 years, rarely having one of those heinous seasons that sends voters scurrying in other directions for a few years. 1992 was one of those uncommon and particularly rough falls for Clemson fans. The Tigers entered the season ranked No. 13 and riding a fancy five-year streak of at least nine wins, but struggled to win close games and sagged to a 5-6 mark.
*Composite Score: -7.19
13. USC – The Trojans were like granite, and then the 1990s began, and Troy showed serious signs of erosion. The most significant problems arose in 1991, 1996, 1997 and 1999, when USC got the benefit of the doubt from voters, but couldn’t even get a low-level bowl invitation in December. The tide has obviously turned since Pete Carroll’s arrival, but it’s going to take a few more Top 5 finishes in order to offset the damage done by Paul Hackett and John Robinson: The Sequel.
*Composite Score: - 7.73
12. Texas A&M – It’s been a three-decade rollercoaster ride for the Aggies in the polls, but it’s the last trimester that’s most responsible for their residence in the bottom half of this list. While the 1970s were a time to regain a foothold in the nation’s conscience, since 1995, A&M has failed to live up to its advanced billing six of the last seven times it was preseason ranked. None was more egregious than 2005, however, when an Aggie squad chock full of talent slumped to 5-6 and needed rallies to beat Baylor and I-AA Texas State.
*Composite Score: - 8.68
T10. UCLA – Save for Washington and Washington State, which didn’t qualify, the Pac-10 doesn’t fare particularly well in this discussion. Witness UCLA, one of the most difficult programs to size up each year. When you think up they’re up, they’re down. And when you think they’re down, they wind up winning 10 games, such as last year. The Bruins have historically done an awful job of living up to their talent, failing to maintain preseason rankings 75% of the time and dropping completely out of the polls nearly once every two years. From 1989 to 1995, UCLA received preseason love from the voters five times, yet ended just one of those seasons in the Top 25.
*Composite Score: - 9.96
T10. Texas – Alright, it’s damn tough to sell Texas as overrated with last year’s national championship still fresh in our minds, however, since 1971, this has, by no measure, been one of the most consistent programs in the country. The ‘Horns get weighed down by 1976, 1988, 1991 and 1997, four losing seasons in the face of lofty preseason predictions. Good thing for Mack Brown. Remove the coach’s tenure from the record books, and Texas is just behind Michigan State, or dangerously close to being college football’s most overrated school of the last 35 years.
*Composite Score: -9.96
9. Colorado – Bookended around Colorado’s national prominence in the 1990s has been a trend of mediocrity and missed targets. In its three preseason poll appearances in the 1970s, the Buffs could only manage a single bowl game. And since 1996, they’ve been ranked five times, and finished below expectations each year. Voters finally cooled on Colorado after the 2000 campaign, when they sunk to 3-8, the school’s sorriest performance in 16 years.
*Composite Score: -10.33
8. Notre Dame – Rejoice, Irish haters. The 35-year evidence bears out your long-held belief that Notre Dame football gets way more credit in the polls than it deserves. The Irish have been ranked in 30 preseasons since 1971, but have been able to maintain or improve upon that projection a mere eight times. And on 11 occasions, they slid completely off the charts by the time the final bowl game had been played. The last three times Notre Dame was ranked in the preseason—1999, 2001 and 2003—it failed to manufacture more than five wins.
*Composite Score: -10.40
7. Auburn – Remember, this is a 35-year review, not just a recent peek at history. The Tigers have vexed experts the last few years, but from 1971 to 1998, they were nearly three times more likely to go south than north when beginning the season ranked. And the declines were often precipitous. The 1973, 1975, 1980, 1991 and 1998 editions all opened the year ranked, but failed to even have winning records, a surefire way to earn the distinction of being one of college football’s most overrated programs.
*Composite Score: -11.19
6. North Carolina – Carolina has had 11 chances since 1971 to prove they belong in the national forum in football, but has never really soared past preseason poll expectations. Now, they were outstanding in the early 1980s under Dick Crum, going 37-9 to open the decade, but that surprised no one. What did catch observers off guard were the 1973 and 1978 teams, both of which began the season in the Top 20, but ended it below .500.
*Composite Score: -11.36
5. Arkansas – Under Houston Nutt, the Hogs have earned a reputation as a plucky, overachieving bunch, but that’s a stark contrast to the early days of this study, when the program was more likely to tank than remain ranked. Arkansas broke voters’ straws in 1990 by going from No. 14 in the preseason to 3-8, the school’s first non-winning year in a quarter of a century. Since then, they’ve gained the confidence of preseason pollsters just once, in 1999.
*Composite Score: -11.40
4. Pittsburgh – Pitt was far more relevant to the rankings in the 1970s and 1980s, when players like Hugh Green, Tony Dorsett and Dan Marino called the Steel City home. Over the past two decades, however, voters have tabbed the Panthers just five times in the summer, and considering their performance, the lack of respect was warranted. In four of those years, they failed to remain in the polls, marked by a pair of 3-7-1 disasters in 1984 and 1990. Dave Wannstedt’s first Pitt team began 2005 No. 23 in the country, but only managed five wins in a forgettable return home for the coach.
*Composite Score: -11.71
3. Arizona State – The Sun Devils have long been one of college football’s most schizophrenic programs, underachieving when big things are predicted and catching everyone by surprise when little is expected. They regularly outperformed forecasts in the first half of the 1970s, but gave a harbinger of the future in 1976, going 4-7 after beginning the season No. 3 in the country and riding a 13-game winning streak. Of the 17 times since 1971 that ASU began a season ranked, they ended 10 of those years somewhere on the outskirts of the Top 25.
*Composite Score: - 11.94
2. Wisconsin – The Badgers didn’t become a preseason player until the mid-1990s, but they’ve been a fixture ever since. Whether that’s been warranted is up for debate. After playing the role of media darlings in 1998 and 1999 with unexpected Big Ten crowns and Rose Bowl triumphs, they’ve been disappointing ever since. Wisconsin got the nod five straight years after beating Stanford 17-9 in the 2000 Rose Bowl, but underachieved noticeably in four of those seasons. The Pasadena afterglow finally faded, pollsters, for the first time since 1996, gave the Badgers the cold shoulder in 2005. And, naturally, hard-to-figure Wisky responded with 10 wins and a No. 15 ranking in the final AP poll.
*Composite Score: -12.50
The Most Overrated Team Has Been ...
1. Michigan State – No matter how good they look or how many starters are back, do not do it. Do not champion the Spartans, America’s most overrated college football program. Resist that temptation and you’ll prove wiser than your peers in the end. Ten times since 1971, Michigan State has been ranked in the preseason. In nine of those years, they ended the season unranked. And there are some real clunkers in the school vault, including Bobby Williams’ last team, which opened 2002 at No. 17, yet could only manage four victories and a host of off-field missteps.
*Composite Score: -19.80
http://www.collegefootballnews.com/2006/Columnists/RC/OverratedTeams.htm
