10 Things I Learned in Maui
posted: Wednesday, November 23, 2005 |
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Sixteen games of great college basketball in one of the most beautiful spots in the world was nice.
But what did NBA executives and scouts learn from their three-day trip to Maui?
Here are 10 things to chew on over the Thanksgiving weekend ...
1. Maurice Ager looks like a legit prospect for the NBA Draft's first round.
No one's stock took a bigger jump than Ager's. He was considered a marginal NBA prospect after just a so-so junior year at Michigan State, but he really shined here.
Ager proved that he could shoot the lights out in the first two games, going 11-for-22 from an extended college 3-point line (they moved the line back a foot as an experiment for the tournament), and in the Spartans' game vs. Arizona, he showed scouts he also has the quickness and hops to be an explosive driver and finisher. To top it off, he's a great kid and a hard worker.
Scouts wish he were an inch or two taller, but if he keeps playing like he did in Maui, he'll be a mid-to-late first round pick this year.
2. Rudy Gay has the potential to be an awesome NBA player.
But the key word is still potential. He's athletic, long and skilled, but his aggressiveness is a question mark, as is his ball-handling.
And if coach Jim Calhoun doesn't run plays for him and leaves him hanging out on the wing, I'm not sure we're going to see many other 28-point games like the one he produced against Arkansas.
Maybe when point guard Marcus Williams comes back, the game will open up a bit for Gay. But after such a brilliant start in Maui, his last two games left most of the NBA folks I talked to Wednesday night underwhelmed.
3. Adam Morrison may be the most exciting draft prospect on the board.
Just about everyone loves the way he plays. He loves to play the game and it shows. Morrison is very skilled, is always looking for his shot, and finds creative ways of getting it.
But his lack of defense is an issue. And even though scouts are trying to stay positive, his lack of athleticism will matter at the next level on the offensive end as well. He'll have to find a way to get separation to get his shot off against the bigger, longer and more athletic threes in the NBA.
People keep comparing him to Larry Bird because of his swagger. But he doesn't rebound or shoot the ball as well as Larry did. To quote one NBA exec who knew Larry well, "He ain't no Larry Bird."
Morrison will go high because he's so intriguing. But I wonder if Reggie Miller and maybe Wally Szczerbiak are better comparisons than Bird.
4. Ronnie Brewer is an aggressive, athletic guard with great quickness.
He proved in Maui the way he played the passing lanes that he's going to be a steals machine. And, as ugly as that jump shot is, it does go in at a decent clip.
But is he a point guard? He handed out just five assists in three games. To be a high lottery pick, Brewer needs to sell scouts on the fact that he can be a point in the pros. While he impressed in many ways in Maui, he didn't show that here.
5. Kansas has six NBA prospects, and big man C.J. Giles tops the list.
That's according to KU head coach Bill Self, who told me after Giles' 21-point, nine-rebound performance against Chaminade that the NBA people he had talked to look at Giles as the best prospect on the Jayhawks' squad.
"He's going to be a special player," Self said. "He's still learning the game, but he's progressing nicely."
The NBA scouts and executives that I talked to mostly agreed. Giles is still a major project, but scouts love the tools.
I don't think we'll be seeing a lot of dominating performances from Giles this year. The 6-10, athletic center has the talent to produce double doubles. But he's still very raw, and without a solid point guard to set him up, he isn't going to have a lot of opportunities to score. Still, the potential is there. And with such a weak center class, Giles' stock will continue to rise and you can bet that NBA scouts will be trying to lure him into the draft.
6. The rest of KU's draft prospects could use at least two years in school.
This group includes Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers, Micah Downs and Sasha Kaun, each of whom needs seasoning before he considers declaring for the draft.
Of the five, Rush's game looks the most mature right now. He is athletic, with an NBA body, and he shoots the ball really well. When all is said and done, he could turn out to be the best of the Rush brothers (though Kareem has come on of late for the Charlotte Bobcats).
Down the road, however, I think Wright could end up being the best player of this group. He has yet to find his niche at KU, but he's got all the tools.
By the way, a two-year wait to declare would do Giles some good, too.
7. Paul Davis, disappointing last season, has looked solid this season.
If he can continue averaging a double double and playing with the aggressiveness he showed in Maui, he should slip into the first round. There just aren't many good bigs in this draft and Davis has enough skills to make an NBA roster. If Jake Voshkul can make it in the NBA, Davis should be able to as well.
8. Hassan Adams looks great when he puts on his high-flying act.
But can someone at Arizona please tell him to stop shooting the long ball? It's just not his game.
Every scout and NBA executive I talked to still has him pegged as a second-rounder.
Meanwhile, the best prospect on the Wildcats team may be freshman Marcus Williams. He's getting decent minutes, and he was pretty impressive down the stretch against Michigan State on Wednesday, the key missed free throws notwithstanding.
9. I didn't see anyone on Maryland that looked like a great NBA prospect.
Some scouts are intrigued with guard D.J. Strawberry, but after a pretty good opening game against Gonzaga, he struggled.
Fans love Nik Caner-Medley, but it's tough to see how his game translates to the NBA.
Big man Ekene Ibekwe had a good game against Arkansas, but I can't imagine him sneaking into the first round based on what scouts saw here in Maui.
10. No one's stock took a harder hit this week than UConn's Josh Boone.
He started off last season great, then faltered midseason. Many scouts held out hope that he'd rebound this season and repair his stock, playing his way back up to lottery status. But after watching him play three games here, I'm not sure he's even the best big man on his own team. Senior Hilton Armstrong is bigger, and was, for the most part, more effective.
Morrison dominates Day 2 in Maui
posted: Wednesday, November 23, 2005
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Adam Morrison looks more like Billy Crudup in the film "Almost Famous" than like a basketball player.
But Tuesday in Maui, when the ball was tipped and the game got under way, he quickly proved that it's going to be tough to find a better offensive player in college basketball this season. After going off for 25 points on the tournament's opening night, Morrison really turned it on in Gonzaga's win over Michigan State, dropping in an EA Sport Maui Invitational-record 43 points.
Morrison was, in a word, awesome. He scored from everywhere. One minute he was launching a 3. The next, he was taking his man off the dribble and weaving his way to the basket. Then he'd pull up for a sweet, 15-foot jumper. Then he'd drive and drop in a beautiful floater.
Morrison hit several clutch shots for the Zags in their triple-overtime victory and made all of his free throws down the stretch to seal the 109-106 victory. It was one of the best college games I've ever seen, and Morrison was a big reason why.
Afterwards, several NBA scouts and GMs were buzzing.
"At the end of the day, your team needs to score to win basketball games," one NBA executive told me. "He has the potential to be a 20-point-a-night scorer in the league. He's so versatile, defenses may be able to take away one or two scoring avenues, but not all of them."
Scouts uniformly love the intensity, swagger and, occasionally, downright nastiness with which Morrison plays the game. The 6-8 forward doesn't have the physical skills of some other top prospects, but few players have the feel for the game he has.
While most NBA scouts and GMs here believe he's a lock for the top 10 (many think top five) if he declares for the draft, not everyone feels that way.
Said one NBA executive, "Someone's going to take him real high because they're in love with the charisma with which he plays the game. But the truth is he's probably worthy of a mid-first-round pick based on how his skills will translate to the pros."
"He won't be able to guard his position in the pros," a different NBA GM told me. "He's not quick enough to guard threes and not strong enough to guard fours. Fans may love him, but I know a lot of head coaches who won't. You've got to be able to play defense in the NBA, and I don't think he can."
Morrison was repeatedly burned by Michigan State's Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager when Gonzaga switched to man-to-man defense. At one point, after Ager blew by him for a layup, Morrison actually turned to Gonzaga head coach Mark Few and made a signal to him to start playing zone.
However, both Brown and Ager possess exceptional quickness and project as two-guards in the pros.
Another GM defended Morrison's defensive ability.
"He'll struggle with super-quick small forwards," the GM told me, "but he'll be just fine with most of the guys in the league. He's long, he's not afraid to get physical and he has a motor that constantly keeps working. There are ways to hide any individual deficiencies that he has. The bottom line is that the positives outweigh the negatives with him."
What else were scouts saying?
Michigan State's Maurice Ager has made a major impression on scouts so far in Maui. The 6-5 shooting guard had a great opening night, scoring 23 points and shooting 4-of-5 from beyond the arc.
He followed that up Tuesday with a 36-point performance, including seven 3s. Three of those 3s were in the last minute of the second half, the final one at the buzzer, sending the game into overtime. As good as Morrison was on Tuesday, Ager was, for the most part, his equal.
Ager did miss 10 of his 17 3-point attempts, but he hit all the clutch ones when it mattered. Couple that with good athleticism and the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, and it looks like we have Ager rated way too low on our Top 100.
Several NBA scouts and executives in Maui are projecting Ager as a mid-to-late first-round pick if he continues playing at this level. It's clear that head coach Tom Izzo is giving him the green light to shoot away, meaning Ager could put up big numbers this year.
Michigan State's other two intriguing draft prospects, big man Paul Davis and combo guard Shannon Brown, were also good.
Davis, a 6-11 forward/center, has been projected as a top prospect since a breakout freshman season. But he never progressed the way scouts had hoped.
Davis has great size and good athleticism for a big man, but he's never been as assertive as his talent suggests he should be. That changed some during the NCAA tournament last spring, and it seems to be carrying over to this season. Davis had 16 points and 13 rebounds versus Chaminade in the opener and followed up with 26 points and 13 boards against Gonzaga. Davis was aggressive with the ball and had a number of dunks (and an impressive five offensive rebounds).
While he still projects as a second-round pick right now, this type of production will clearly move him up into the first round.
Brown is more of an enigma. He is built like a tank, plays good defense and is a phenomenal athlete, but he's undersized to play the two in the pros and doesn't possess real point-guard skills. He's averaging 18.5 ppg in the tournament, but he's shooting just 4-of-12 from 3-land. Right now he's a second rounder at best (and maybe undrafted).
I made a big deal out of Rudy Gay's dominant, 28-point performance against Arkansas on Monday. On Tuesday, the bizarro Rudy showed up instead. After posting the best game of his career Monday, he was two late free throws away from posting the worst game of his career Tuesday. He was tentative on both ends of the floor, his shot looked awful, he committed four costly turnovers, and he drew the ire of head coach Jim Calhoun repeatedly during the game.
What's going on? While it's clear that Gay has all the physical tools to be a great NBA player, the old concerns about him bubbled to the surface late Tuesday.
"Maybe we were all a little punch-drunk after that performance on Monday," one NBA scout said. "As good as Rudy could be, he's not totally there yet. He still doesn't know how to play and sometimes it just looks like he doesn't have the drive to be a great player. Great players show up for every game. I didn't think he showed up tonight."
Scouts who were calling him the undisputed top prospect in the draft on Monday began hedging on Tuesday. They pointed out that he's reluctant to put the ball on the floor. His jump shot is inconsistent. He always hesitates when he passes. He doesn't move all that well without the ball. He seems to lose his confidence when he doesn't get it going early.
I can't wait to see him go head-to-head against Morrison in the championship game on Wednesday.
A few random notes...
<LI>Scouts all love the potential of Arizona freshman forward Marcus Williams, especially after he gave Gay problems on both ends of the floor.
<LI>UConn senior Hilton Armstrong is long and athletic, and the 6-11 forward/center had a breakout game against Arizona, scoring 14 points and grabbing eight boards. He's got a lot of talent, but his head is a big question mark.
<LI>Ronnie Brewer's shot might be ugly, but it's still going in. Arkansas' 6-7 junior guard scored 23 points in Tuesday's 65-64 win over Kansas (going 3-of-6 from 3-point country). He scored 25 points in Monday's 77-68 loss to UConn.
<LI>Kansas freshman guard Brandon Rush had a good game against Brewer, scoring 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting. Of the four super freshmen at KU, he plays with the most maturity right now.
<LI>The 3-of-16 shooting by Arizona senior guard Hassan Adams in the Wildcats' first-round win over Kansas had one scout dub him the "next Greg Buckner." No, that wasn't a compliment.
Gay wows NBA scouts in Maui
posted: Tuesday, November 22, 2005
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Last week we put UConn's Rudy Gay atop our Preaseason Top 100 with a few mixed feelings. Clearly he had as much potential as any player in the draft. But could he live up to the lofty expectations of being a No. 1 pick? Scouts questioned whether he had the drive and the aggressiveness to truly live up to his limitless potential. Even head coach Jim Calhoun wondered aloud before the season began. Rudy got the message and answered his critics here with an amazing 28-point performance against Arkansas on the opening night of the EA Sports Maui Invitational.
In front of nine NBA GMs and a host of NBA scouts, Gay put on the best performance of his college career.
Gay did it all. He got it going in the first half with several silky-smooth 18-foot jump shots and a nice turnaround 10-foot jumper over the outstretched arms of Ronnie Brewer. Then he grabbed a board and took it coast to coast for a contested layup, wowing scouts with his speed and ballhandling skills. In the second half, it just got ridiculous, with Gay hammering home two spectacular dunks in traffic and then adding a circus shot from behind the backboard in the waning moments of the game.
After the game, GMs and scouts declared the obvious.
"If he plays like that all year, he's a lock for the No. 1 pick," one prominent GM told me. "His game is tailor-made for the NBA. He's got it all: size, athleticism, skill, and he's a great kid. If he can keep playing with that aggressiveness, he has a chance to be superstar in the NBA."
He didn't have a perfect night. Brewer gave Gay some problems when he tried to handle the ball, and he had a couple of ugly misses on his jumper, but all in all, it was the type of buzz-creating performance that Gay needed to secure his stock as the frontrunner for the top pick in the draft.
What else were scouts saying?
Brewer had a great game. He's added about 15 pounds of muscle and it shows. He was great slashing to and finishing around the basket and was a nightmare in the passing lanes, picking up six steals. He also had some nice passes, though he rarely played point guard. His jump shot mechanics are still terribly ugly, but often enough the ball was going in. Brewer finished with 25 points on 8-for-17 shooting. His aggression on both ends of the floor really impressed several GMs that I talked to and all had him pegged as a top-10 prospect.
Gonzaga's Adam Morrison also drew a lot of positive reviews after his 25-point performance against Maryland. GMs called him "smart" "efficient" and "nasty," and all seemed to be backing off their concerns that his athleticism would hurt his draft stock.
"He's just so fun to watch," one GM said. "I love the way he plays. You just can't take your eyes off him."
Kansas is loaded with as many as six potential NBA prospects, but none looked ready for the NBA against Arizona on Monday. Four are freshmen (Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers and Micah Downs) and the other two are sophomores (C.J. Giles and Sasha Kaun).
Rush (11 pts, seven boards) and Kaun (12 points, six boards) had the best games, but scouts believe that Giles and Wright have the most NBA potential. Giles is long and athletic and had a respectable 10 boards and three blocks on Monday, but he was very shaky from the field (1 of 6) and has questionable hands. He couldn't hold onto the ball on Monday. Wright is long, athletic and reminds some scouts of a smaller Kevin Garnett, but right now he really doesn't have a game. He just runs the floor and picks up the garbage. In other words, it looks like their entire squad could use another year together before thinking about the pros.
Arizona's Hassan Adams is just 6-foot-4, but he outjumped the very athletic 6-10 Giles on the opening tip. Adams played with his characteristic toughness at both ends and his shooting form looked improved, but the ball wasn't going in the basket. Adams ended up shooting 3-for-16 from the field.
Danny Ainge (Boston Celtics), Bryan Colangelo (Phoenix Suns), Mitch Kupchak (Los Angeles Lakers), Kevin O'Connor (Utah Jazz), R.C. Buford (San Antonio Spurs), Danny Ferry (Cleveland Cavaliers), Larry Harris (Milwaukee Bucks), Ed Stefanski (New Jersey Nets) and Elgin Baylor (Los Angeles Clippers) were among the NBA execs in attendance on Monday. Overall, I counted representatives from 27 teams in attendance.
posted: Wednesday, November 23, 2005 |
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Sixteen games of great college basketball in one of the most beautiful spots in the world was nice.
But what did NBA executives and scouts learn from their three-day trip to Maui?
Here are 10 things to chew on over the Thanksgiving weekend ...
1. Maurice Ager looks like a legit prospect for the NBA Draft's first round.
No one's stock took a bigger jump than Ager's. He was considered a marginal NBA prospect after just a so-so junior year at Michigan State, but he really shined here.
Ager proved that he could shoot the lights out in the first two games, going 11-for-22 from an extended college 3-point line (they moved the line back a foot as an experiment for the tournament), and in the Spartans' game vs. Arizona, he showed scouts he also has the quickness and hops to be an explosive driver and finisher. To top it off, he's a great kid and a hard worker.
Scouts wish he were an inch or two taller, but if he keeps playing like he did in Maui, he'll be a mid-to-late first round pick this year.
2. Rudy Gay has the potential to be an awesome NBA player.
But the key word is still potential. He's athletic, long and skilled, but his aggressiveness is a question mark, as is his ball-handling.
And if coach Jim Calhoun doesn't run plays for him and leaves him hanging out on the wing, I'm not sure we're going to see many other 28-point games like the one he produced against Arkansas.
Maybe when point guard Marcus Williams comes back, the game will open up a bit for Gay. But after such a brilliant start in Maui, his last two games left most of the NBA folks I talked to Wednesday night underwhelmed.
3. Adam Morrison may be the most exciting draft prospect on the board.
Just about everyone loves the way he plays. He loves to play the game and it shows. Morrison is very skilled, is always looking for his shot, and finds creative ways of getting it.
But his lack of defense is an issue. And even though scouts are trying to stay positive, his lack of athleticism will matter at the next level on the offensive end as well. He'll have to find a way to get separation to get his shot off against the bigger, longer and more athletic threes in the NBA.
People keep comparing him to Larry Bird because of his swagger. But he doesn't rebound or shoot the ball as well as Larry did. To quote one NBA exec who knew Larry well, "He ain't no Larry Bird."
Morrison will go high because he's so intriguing. But I wonder if Reggie Miller and maybe Wally Szczerbiak are better comparisons than Bird.
4. Ronnie Brewer is an aggressive, athletic guard with great quickness.
He proved in Maui the way he played the passing lanes that he's going to be a steals machine. And, as ugly as that jump shot is, it does go in at a decent clip.
But is he a point guard? He handed out just five assists in three games. To be a high lottery pick, Brewer needs to sell scouts on the fact that he can be a point in the pros. While he impressed in many ways in Maui, he didn't show that here.
5. Kansas has six NBA prospects, and big man C.J. Giles tops the list.
That's according to KU head coach Bill Self, who told me after Giles' 21-point, nine-rebound performance against Chaminade that the NBA people he had talked to look at Giles as the best prospect on the Jayhawks' squad.
"He's going to be a special player," Self said. "He's still learning the game, but he's progressing nicely."
The NBA scouts and executives that I talked to mostly agreed. Giles is still a major project, but scouts love the tools.
I don't think we'll be seeing a lot of dominating performances from Giles this year. The 6-10, athletic center has the talent to produce double doubles. But he's still very raw, and without a solid point guard to set him up, he isn't going to have a lot of opportunities to score. Still, the potential is there. And with such a weak center class, Giles' stock will continue to rise and you can bet that NBA scouts will be trying to lure him into the draft.
6. The rest of KU's draft prospects could use at least two years in school.
This group includes Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers, Micah Downs and Sasha Kaun, each of whom needs seasoning before he considers declaring for the draft.
Of the five, Rush's game looks the most mature right now. He is athletic, with an NBA body, and he shoots the ball really well. When all is said and done, he could turn out to be the best of the Rush brothers (though Kareem has come on of late for the Charlotte Bobcats).
Down the road, however, I think Wright could end up being the best player of this group. He has yet to find his niche at KU, but he's got all the tools.
By the way, a two-year wait to declare would do Giles some good, too.
7. Paul Davis, disappointing last season, has looked solid this season.
If he can continue averaging a double double and playing with the aggressiveness he showed in Maui, he should slip into the first round. There just aren't many good bigs in this draft and Davis has enough skills to make an NBA roster. If Jake Voshkul can make it in the NBA, Davis should be able to as well.
8. Hassan Adams looks great when he puts on his high-flying act.
But can someone at Arizona please tell him to stop shooting the long ball? It's just not his game.
Every scout and NBA executive I talked to still has him pegged as a second-rounder.
Meanwhile, the best prospect on the Wildcats team may be freshman Marcus Williams. He's getting decent minutes, and he was pretty impressive down the stretch against Michigan State on Wednesday, the key missed free throws notwithstanding.
9. I didn't see anyone on Maryland that looked like a great NBA prospect.
Some scouts are intrigued with guard D.J. Strawberry, but after a pretty good opening game against Gonzaga, he struggled.
Fans love Nik Caner-Medley, but it's tough to see how his game translates to the NBA.
Big man Ekene Ibekwe had a good game against Arkansas, but I can't imagine him sneaking into the first round based on what scouts saw here in Maui.
10. No one's stock took a harder hit this week than UConn's Josh Boone.
He started off last season great, then faltered midseason. Many scouts held out hope that he'd rebound this season and repair his stock, playing his way back up to lottery status. But after watching him play three games here, I'm not sure he's even the best big man on his own team. Senior Hilton Armstrong is bigger, and was, for the most part, more effective.
Morrison dominates Day 2 in Maui
posted: Wednesday, November 23, 2005
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Adam Morrison looks more like Billy Crudup in the film "Almost Famous" than like a basketball player.
But Tuesday in Maui, when the ball was tipped and the game got under way, he quickly proved that it's going to be tough to find a better offensive player in college basketball this season. After going off for 25 points on the tournament's opening night, Morrison really turned it on in Gonzaga's win over Michigan State, dropping in an EA Sport Maui Invitational-record 43 points.
Morrison was, in a word, awesome. He scored from everywhere. One minute he was launching a 3. The next, he was taking his man off the dribble and weaving his way to the basket. Then he'd pull up for a sweet, 15-foot jumper. Then he'd drive and drop in a beautiful floater.
Morrison hit several clutch shots for the Zags in their triple-overtime victory and made all of his free throws down the stretch to seal the 109-106 victory. It was one of the best college games I've ever seen, and Morrison was a big reason why.
Afterwards, several NBA scouts and GMs were buzzing.
"At the end of the day, your team needs to score to win basketball games," one NBA executive told me. "He has the potential to be a 20-point-a-night scorer in the league. He's so versatile, defenses may be able to take away one or two scoring avenues, but not all of them."
Scouts uniformly love the intensity, swagger and, occasionally, downright nastiness with which Morrison plays the game. The 6-8 forward doesn't have the physical skills of some other top prospects, but few players have the feel for the game he has.
While most NBA scouts and GMs here believe he's a lock for the top 10 (many think top five) if he declares for the draft, not everyone feels that way.
Said one NBA executive, "Someone's going to take him real high because they're in love with the charisma with which he plays the game. But the truth is he's probably worthy of a mid-first-round pick based on how his skills will translate to the pros."
"He won't be able to guard his position in the pros," a different NBA GM told me. "He's not quick enough to guard threes and not strong enough to guard fours. Fans may love him, but I know a lot of head coaches who won't. You've got to be able to play defense in the NBA, and I don't think he can."
Morrison was repeatedly burned by Michigan State's Shannon Brown and Maurice Ager when Gonzaga switched to man-to-man defense. At one point, after Ager blew by him for a layup, Morrison actually turned to Gonzaga head coach Mark Few and made a signal to him to start playing zone.
However, both Brown and Ager possess exceptional quickness and project as two-guards in the pros.
Another GM defended Morrison's defensive ability.
"He'll struggle with super-quick small forwards," the GM told me, "but he'll be just fine with most of the guys in the league. He's long, he's not afraid to get physical and he has a motor that constantly keeps working. There are ways to hide any individual deficiencies that he has. The bottom line is that the positives outweigh the negatives with him."
What else were scouts saying?
Michigan State's Maurice Ager has made a major impression on scouts so far in Maui. The 6-5 shooting guard had a great opening night, scoring 23 points and shooting 4-of-5 from beyond the arc.
He followed that up Tuesday with a 36-point performance, including seven 3s. Three of those 3s were in the last minute of the second half, the final one at the buzzer, sending the game into overtime. As good as Morrison was on Tuesday, Ager was, for the most part, his equal.
Ager did miss 10 of his 17 3-point attempts, but he hit all the clutch ones when it mattered. Couple that with good athleticism and the ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, and it looks like we have Ager rated way too low on our Top 100.
Several NBA scouts and executives in Maui are projecting Ager as a mid-to-late first-round pick if he continues playing at this level. It's clear that head coach Tom Izzo is giving him the green light to shoot away, meaning Ager could put up big numbers this year.
Michigan State's other two intriguing draft prospects, big man Paul Davis and combo guard Shannon Brown, were also good.
Davis, a 6-11 forward/center, has been projected as a top prospect since a breakout freshman season. But he never progressed the way scouts had hoped.
Davis has great size and good athleticism for a big man, but he's never been as assertive as his talent suggests he should be. That changed some during the NCAA tournament last spring, and it seems to be carrying over to this season. Davis had 16 points and 13 rebounds versus Chaminade in the opener and followed up with 26 points and 13 boards against Gonzaga. Davis was aggressive with the ball and had a number of dunks (and an impressive five offensive rebounds).
While he still projects as a second-round pick right now, this type of production will clearly move him up into the first round.
Brown is more of an enigma. He is built like a tank, plays good defense and is a phenomenal athlete, but he's undersized to play the two in the pros and doesn't possess real point-guard skills. He's averaging 18.5 ppg in the tournament, but he's shooting just 4-of-12 from 3-land. Right now he's a second rounder at best (and maybe undrafted).
I made a big deal out of Rudy Gay's dominant, 28-point performance against Arkansas on Monday. On Tuesday, the bizarro Rudy showed up instead. After posting the best game of his career Monday, he was two late free throws away from posting the worst game of his career Tuesday. He was tentative on both ends of the floor, his shot looked awful, he committed four costly turnovers, and he drew the ire of head coach Jim Calhoun repeatedly during the game.
What's going on? While it's clear that Gay has all the physical tools to be a great NBA player, the old concerns about him bubbled to the surface late Tuesday.
"Maybe we were all a little punch-drunk after that performance on Monday," one NBA scout said. "As good as Rudy could be, he's not totally there yet. He still doesn't know how to play and sometimes it just looks like he doesn't have the drive to be a great player. Great players show up for every game. I didn't think he showed up tonight."
Scouts who were calling him the undisputed top prospect in the draft on Monday began hedging on Tuesday. They pointed out that he's reluctant to put the ball on the floor. His jump shot is inconsistent. He always hesitates when he passes. He doesn't move all that well without the ball. He seems to lose his confidence when he doesn't get it going early.
I can't wait to see him go head-to-head against Morrison in the championship game on Wednesday.
A few random notes...
<LI>Scouts all love the potential of Arizona freshman forward Marcus Williams, especially after he gave Gay problems on both ends of the floor.
<LI>UConn senior Hilton Armstrong is long and athletic, and the 6-11 forward/center had a breakout game against Arizona, scoring 14 points and grabbing eight boards. He's got a lot of talent, but his head is a big question mark.
<LI>Ronnie Brewer's shot might be ugly, but it's still going in. Arkansas' 6-7 junior guard scored 23 points in Tuesday's 65-64 win over Kansas (going 3-of-6 from 3-point country). He scored 25 points in Monday's 77-68 loss to UConn.
<LI>Kansas freshman guard Brandon Rush had a good game against Brewer, scoring 20 points on 8-of-10 shooting. Of the four super freshmen at KU, he plays with the most maturity right now.
<LI>The 3-of-16 shooting by Arizona senior guard Hassan Adams in the Wildcats' first-round win over Kansas had one scout dub him the "next Greg Buckner." No, that wasn't a compliment.
Gay wows NBA scouts in Maui
posted: Tuesday, November 22, 2005
LAHAINA, Hawaii -- Last week we put UConn's Rudy Gay atop our Preaseason Top 100 with a few mixed feelings. Clearly he had as much potential as any player in the draft. But could he live up to the lofty expectations of being a No. 1 pick? Scouts questioned whether he had the drive and the aggressiveness to truly live up to his limitless potential. Even head coach Jim Calhoun wondered aloud before the season began. Rudy got the message and answered his critics here with an amazing 28-point performance against Arkansas on the opening night of the EA Sports Maui Invitational.
In front of nine NBA GMs and a host of NBA scouts, Gay put on the best performance of his college career.
Gay did it all. He got it going in the first half with several silky-smooth 18-foot jump shots and a nice turnaround 10-foot jumper over the outstretched arms of Ronnie Brewer. Then he grabbed a board and took it coast to coast for a contested layup, wowing scouts with his speed and ballhandling skills. In the second half, it just got ridiculous, with Gay hammering home two spectacular dunks in traffic and then adding a circus shot from behind the backboard in the waning moments of the game.
After the game, GMs and scouts declared the obvious.
"If he plays like that all year, he's a lock for the No. 1 pick," one prominent GM told me. "His game is tailor-made for the NBA. He's got it all: size, athleticism, skill, and he's a great kid. If he can keep playing with that aggressiveness, he has a chance to be superstar in the NBA."
He didn't have a perfect night. Brewer gave Gay some problems when he tried to handle the ball, and he had a couple of ugly misses on his jumper, but all in all, it was the type of buzz-creating performance that Gay needed to secure his stock as the frontrunner for the top pick in the draft.
What else were scouts saying?
Brewer had a great game. He's added about 15 pounds of muscle and it shows. He was great slashing to and finishing around the basket and was a nightmare in the passing lanes, picking up six steals. He also had some nice passes, though he rarely played point guard. His jump shot mechanics are still terribly ugly, but often enough the ball was going in. Brewer finished with 25 points on 8-for-17 shooting. His aggression on both ends of the floor really impressed several GMs that I talked to and all had him pegged as a top-10 prospect.
Gonzaga's Adam Morrison also drew a lot of positive reviews after his 25-point performance against Maryland. GMs called him "smart" "efficient" and "nasty," and all seemed to be backing off their concerns that his athleticism would hurt his draft stock.
"He's just so fun to watch," one GM said. "I love the way he plays. You just can't take your eyes off him."
Kansas is loaded with as many as six potential NBA prospects, but none looked ready for the NBA against Arizona on Monday. Four are freshmen (Brandon Rush, Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers and Micah Downs) and the other two are sophomores (C.J. Giles and Sasha Kaun).
Rush (11 pts, seven boards) and Kaun (12 points, six boards) had the best games, but scouts believe that Giles and Wright have the most NBA potential. Giles is long and athletic and had a respectable 10 boards and three blocks on Monday, but he was very shaky from the field (1 of 6) and has questionable hands. He couldn't hold onto the ball on Monday. Wright is long, athletic and reminds some scouts of a smaller Kevin Garnett, but right now he really doesn't have a game. He just runs the floor and picks up the garbage. In other words, it looks like their entire squad could use another year together before thinking about the pros.
Arizona's Hassan Adams is just 6-foot-4, but he outjumped the very athletic 6-10 Giles on the opening tip. Adams played with his characteristic toughness at both ends and his shooting form looked improved, but the ball wasn't going in the basket. Adams ended up shooting 3-for-16 from the field.
Danny Ainge (Boston Celtics), Bryan Colangelo (Phoenix Suns), Mitch Kupchak (Los Angeles Lakers), Kevin O'Connor (Utah Jazz), R.C. Buford (San Antonio Spurs), Danny Ferry (Cleveland Cavaliers), Larry Harris (Milwaukee Bucks), Ed Stefanski (New Jersey Nets) and Elgin Baylor (Los Angeles Clippers) were among the NBA execs in attendance on Monday. Overall, I counted representatives from 27 teams in attendance.
