Changing the narrative- Dbacks Farm System

[Chris_Sanders]

Current narrative on the board is that our farm system is ruined. Let's look at that...

MLB top 100

Bradley #10
Shipley #44
Touki #80
Blair #82
Lamb: #93

4 pitchers (the only team with 4 pitchers in the top 100) and a hitter.

Drury, O'Brien, and Wilson are all in the next 20 after the top 100 (being 50 rated, same as #100)

So 8 players in the top 120 for MLB.

Here is a post August 1st review of the farm systems. DBacks rank #13.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-mlb-farm-systems-post-trade-deadline/page/19


Next year will be a transition year but these are names we should be seeing in 2016 for sure.

 

[82CardsGrad]

Current narrative on the board is that our farm system is ruined. Let's look at that...

MLB top 100

Bradley #10
Shipley #44
Touki #80
Blair #82
Lamb: #93

4 pitchers (the only team with 4 pitchers in the top 100) and a hitter.

Drury, O'Brien, and Wilson are all in the next 20 after the top 100 (being 50 rated, same as #100)

So 8 players in the top 120 for MLB.

Here is a post August 1st review of the farm systems. DBacks rank #13.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-mlb-farm-systems-post-trade-deadline/page/19


Next year will be a transition year but these are names we should be seeing in 2016 for sure.

'Course, some would say that all of that young talent would be nothing but trade bait for KT...

 

[Chris_Sanders]

Bradley and Drury will be part of the Diamondbacks Fall League team. I may go check out a game or two.

 

[Mulli]

Go Cubs!

 

[DWKB]

That never was the narrative I don't think. A farm system isn't some static thing, it's constantly producing new talent hopefully. What the narrative really entailed was that from 2011 to 2013 we had a consistently top 10 rated system that KT turned into over priced vets and post arb players who have ended up being failures on the field. That has led to a progressively over priced and under performing team the past few seasons with no real relief in the near future.

82 is partially correct in that I would say it's simply trade bait for KT (were he still around), but even worse, it would be trade bait for less value because this organization didn't know how to evaluate baseball production. We'll see if that changes in the future.

Also, can you link to the list? Baseball America only has us listed with 3 top 100 prospects (Bradley, Shipley, and Owings)

 

[Chris_Sanders]

That never was the narrative, but makes for a nice straw man.

I have seen several posters say the farm system is empty. This is the first post that I have seen to challenge that notion. So yes that is "Changing the narrative"

it's constantly producing new talent hopefully.

Agreed. It has been hit or miss this year but we have had some big performances from our rookies, especially Anderson, Peralta, and Pollock.

What the narrative really entailed was that from 2011 to 2013 we had a consistently top 10 rated system that KT turned into over priced vets and post arb players who have ended up being failures on the field.

Yep. We are still in the top 15 so not too bad.

That has led to a progressively over priced and under performing team the past few seasons with no real relief in the near future.

Ah now that is the narrative I was speaking of. We have 4 arms in the top 100 prospects and multiple hitters in the top 120, all with a target date of 2016. That sure looks like real relief in the near future.

Also, can you link to the list? Baseball America only has us listed with 3 top 100 prospects (Bradley, Shipley, and Owings)

Mlb.com

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

 

[DWKB]

I have seen several posters say the farm system is empty. This is the first post that I have seen to challenge that notion. So yes that is "Changing the narrative"




Agreed. It has been hit or miss this year but we have had some big performances from our rookies, especially Anderson, Peralta, and Pollock.




Yep. We are still in the top 15 so not too bad.




Ah now that is the narrative I was speaking of. We have 4 arms in the top 100 prospects and multiple hitters in the top 120, all with a target date of 2016. That sure looks like real relief in the near future.



Mlb.com

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/

Thanks for the link. I honestly never go to mlb.com as most of the team information seems to just be team PR mouthpiece stuff.

In regards to relief I'm speaking of contracts for those vet and post arb salaries, but in reality 2016 isn't the near future IMO. 2015 is the near future and that's assuming these kids come out like gangbusters in MLB and don't take an adjustment period (like most prospects do).

You wanna talk changing the narrative, lets talk about trading Montero in the offseason.

 

[82CardsGrad]

You wanna talk changing the narrative, lets talk about trading Montero in the offseason.

I like Miggy... but, he clearly needs to go. I do believe there is something to the smoke about him not being able to effectively call games. And, I believe we have already seen his best days at the plate.
Just not sure what he would really bring back to us in a trade...

 

[Dback Jon]

I like Miggy... but, he clearly needs to go. I do believe there is something to the smoke about him not being able to effectively call games. And, I believe we have already seen his best days at the plate.
Just not sure what he would really bring back to us in a trade...

So if we don't trade him people will complain.

If we do trade him, you are saying that we won't get much in return, and people will complain about not getting anything for an All-Star.



So who catches next year? Clearly not Tuffy.

 

[Matt L]

So if we don't trade him people will complain.

If we do trade him, you are saying that we won't get much in return, and people will complain about not getting anything for an All-Star.



So who catches next year? Clearly not Tuffy.

I agree with Jon. I think they will trade him if they have to cut payroll and he is one of the only players that another team may be willing to take on his $10+million per year salary. That said, he is a solid Catcher at a reasonable salary. I am not sure who we could get to replace him.

 

[82CardsGrad]

So if we don't trade him people will complain.

If we do trade him, you are saying that we won't get much in return, and people will complain about not getting anything for an All-Star.



So who catches next year? Clearly not Tuffy.

And that is precisely the dilemma and why great GM's earn their $$...

 

[Phrazbit]

I'm not wild about Miggy and if we could get a good return for him I'd be fine with moving him, but unless the return is pretty solid we should keep him. Tuffy is awful, Stryker Trahan is a bust... unless we want to scrape the bargain bin its going to be tough to replace Miggy by next season.

 

[Dback Jon]

Would Peter O'Brien be ready, or any good? As a replacement for Miggy?

 

[Brian]

I like Miggy... but, he clearly needs to go. I do believe there is something to the smoke about him not being able to effectively call games. And, I believe we have already seen his best days at the plate.
Just not sure what he would really bring back to us in a trade...

Not saying Miggy has to go yet, but I'm a big believer in CERA. With that being said, I'm not sure what Yadier Molina's is but his handling of the Cardinal's staff is well documented. He is invaluable to that team.

I'm too lazy to look up Miggy's vs. Molina's right now. Chris Snyder at one time had the best CERA in baseball but couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

 

[Phrazbit]

Would Peter O'Brien be ready, or any good? As a replacement for Miggy?

He has a poor batting average and a terrifying strikeout rate in AA, unless we have some batting coach work a miracle on him I can't see a guy with those peripherals in AA being productive in the bigs. I also believe he has been playing most of his games as outfield or 1b the last few years... which would lead me to believe he is pretty spotty behind the plate.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

He has a poor batting average and a terrifying strikeout rate in AA, unless we have some batting coach work a miracle on him I can't see a guy with those peripherals in AA being productive in the bigs. I also believe he has been playing most of his games as outfield or 1b the last few years... which would lead me to believe he is pretty spotty behind the plate.

Poor BA? He's hitting .271 on the season.. Since coming to the Diamondbacks organization, he's hit .385 with a .429 OBP and a .1044 OPS (.910 on the season). If that's bad numbers, I'll take it all day and every day.

 

[AZ Native]

Poor BA? He's hitting .271 on the season.. Since coming to the Diamondbacks organization, he's hit .385 with a .429 OBP and a .1044 OPS (.910 on the season). If that's bad numbers, I'll take it all day and every day.

Haven't you been reading this site. All those stats are useless. You need to only consider MEPY, PQYC, YWXM and YPXW.

 

[Phrazbit]

Poor BA? He's hitting .271 on the season.. Since coming to the Diamondbacks organization, he's hit .385 with a .429 OBP and a .1044 OPS (.910 on the season). If that's bad numbers, I'll take it all day and every day.

Haven't you been reading this site. All those stats are useless. You need to only consider MEPY, PQYC, YWXM and YPXW.

lol, give me a break... those numbers with Arizona are in THIRTEEN AT BATS!!!

I'm not using any fancy stats when saying that O'Brien does not appear to have much potential.

He hit .245 in AA Trenton (in 274 at bats... call me crazy but that weighs a bit heavier than his 4 games in AA Mobile). His strike out rate his dreadful, he has whiffed in roughly 30% of his minor league at bats... and thats without him ever advancing past AA. He has 72 walks against 307 minor league strikeouts... those numbers are waaaaaaay worse than even Mark Reynolds.

So, spam giant laughing, sarcasm faces all you guys want... but please, look up the numbers first.

And like I said, he has been playing less catcher as his minor league career has progressed. He has committed 18 errors and has 41 (yes FORTY ONE) passed balls in 147 games behind the plate, he also has thrown out a mere 18% of stolen base attempts. Those numbers are not just bad... they're mega-extreme-ultra-super-horrendous-pukey bad.

So, seeing as he is a strikeout machine who has serious issues fielding... I don't think its that crazy of me to say he is not quite ready to step in as a major league catcher.

 

[Diamondback Jay]

Nice to see you failed to mention his OPS, which was .851 in Trenton. For grins alone, the current Eastern League leader in OPS is Matt Duffy.. His OPS? .842. Also his .245 batting average isn't exactly the worst in the world. Nor does the fact that he is only behind Kris Bryant and Joey Gallo in homers suck.

Yeah O'Brien struck out some. His OBP and power however cover for that. This isn't Trumbo. This is a kid who needs to take a walk every now and again and have a little more plate discipline. It isn't the most unrealistic expectation that he will. I know you like to discredit everything this organization does, but acting like the kid is some worthless hack is far fetched.

 

[Phrazbit]

I only like to discredit the idiotic stuff this organization does... which unfortunately has been the majority of transactions the last few years... and at this point I dont think I should have to defend that stance anymore.

However, the question was:

Would Peter O'Brien be ready, or any good? As a replacement for Miggy?

And the answer is a resounding 'no'.

I stand by every single thing I said in my previous posts. He is absolutely not capable of replacing Miguel Montero. And MOST importantly (and ignored in your response) he has been horrible behind the plate.

Also, he is a lot like Trumbo! Trumbo needs to talk a walk now and then and have more discipline... he also needs to learn how to field a position. They have a lot in common. But Trumbo is dealing with these problems in the bigs, while O'Brien is having these problems in the minors.

 

[PDXChris]

And like I said, he has been playing less catcher as his minor league career has progressed. He has committed 18 errors and has 41 (yes FORTY ONE) passed balls in 147 games behind the plate, he also has thrown out a mere 18% of stolen base attempts. Those numbers are not just bad... they're mega-extreme-ultra-super-horrendous-pukey bad.

That is what worries me and why the trade never made sense since I remember reading he will NEVER play Catcher in the majors. 1B of LF is what I remember reading, so he is Mark Trumbo?

 

[DWKB]

My reasoning for trading Montero this offseason:

Montero will make over 10% of the total payroll in the next 3 years, $40M in total. He is going to be 31 next year and has already shown signs of decline. He will never be that 120 OPS+ C who plays 140 games again. This season has all of the calling signs of a dead cat bounce to it. A future looking GM would see that this is the sell high point or you're stuck with him until the trade deadline of 2017 minimum. By the time we are ready to contend seriously again, Montero will be a $14M paid 33 yr old C who is probably a part time player. This will hamstring us financially going after some FA or mid season acquisition. This year's production might entice another team to take a chance on him. Especially a high payroll team that needs a C (I'm looking at you BOS or LAD).

Unless you think KK will grow our payroll to the $150M range, we are going to have to dump salary or ride it out. The bulk of our large salaried players have no value you (*cough* Arroyo *cough*), but Montero still does. He's the guy to move and you figure out the C position after that.