Chopper's Post Combine/Pre FA First Round Mock Draft

[Chopper0080]

1-Kansas City-Sharrif Floyd-DT-Florida
*Gives the Chiefs defense a penatrating DT to pair with Poe.

2-Jacksonville-Dion Jordan -OLB-Oregon
*A larger version of Bruce Irvin will give new coach Gus Bradley an athletic pas rusher from the LB position.

3-Oakland -Geno Smith-QB-West Virginia
*Oakland has a ton of needs, but QB might be the biggest. Smith allows them to stay competitive by fielding a solid, young offense.

4-Philadelphia -Star Lotulelei-DT-Utah
*The Eagles are transitioning to a 3-4 defense and while their under-sized DEs project to playing OLB in the new scheme, the Eagles DTs do not. Lotulelei gives them size at NT or DE that they just don't have on their roster.

5-Detroit -Ezekiel Ansah-DE-BYU
*As of right now, Detroit has lost it's two starting DEs from last year. While Werner might be further along, Ansah has much more ability. Detroit drafts for potential.

6-Cleveland -Barkevious Mingo-OLB-LSU
*The Browns have a bigger need at S, but I think they take a gamble on Mingo's athleticism over Vaccaro at this point.

7-Arizona -Luke Joeckel-OT-Texas A&M
*This wouldn't be my pick, but I get the reasoning behind it which I think the Cardinals will follow.

8-Buffalo-Keenan Allen-WR-California
*The Bills need more weapons on offense and Allen is the best one in the draft. Allows Stevie Johnson to work in the slot at times.

9-NY Jets -Damontre Moore-OLB-Texas A&M
*The Jets like bigger 3-4 OLBs so I think they take a shot at Moore and look to upgrade the offense later.

10-Tennessee -Chance Warmack-OG-Alabama
*The Titans have good OTs but a terrible interior OL. Warmack gives them a physical presence in the running game to help get the most out of the QBs and Chris Johnson.

11-San Diego -Eric Fisher-OT-Central Michigan
*You have to protect Rivers and give him weapons. This helps protect him and allows the Chargers to find weapons later in the draft.

12-Miami -Lane Johnson-OT-Oklahoma
*Johnson replaces Jake Long, but this pick could change depending on how comfortable the Dolphins are with Jonathan Martin at LT.

13-Tampa Bay -Dee Milliner-CB-Alabama
*I would go pass rusher here, but I think the Bucs take the top CB in the draft. Fills a big need on their roster.

14-Carolina-Sheldon Richardson-DT-Missouri
*Not a big space eater, but a player who can generate interior pressure and demand a double team to keep players of Kuechley.

15-New Orleans-Jarvis Jones-OLB-Georgia
*Not the long OLB that Rob Ryan normally prefers, but still an experienced 3-4 OLB with speed.

16-St. Louis-Kenny Vaccaro-S-Texas
*The Rams get better on the backend of their defense to go with the upgrades they made at CB last year.

17-Pittsburgh-Jessie Williams-DT-Alabama
*The Steelers get a NT to replace Hampton.

18-Dallas-Jonathan Cooper-OG-North Carolina
*If the draft goes like this, I could see the Cowboys trading up. As is, I think the Cowboys get a solid interior OL to help get the most out of Murray and Romo.

19-NY Giants-Bjoern Werner-DE-Florida St.
*The Giants normally prefer defensive linemen who can play multiple positions, but I can't see them passing on Werner here.

20-Chicago-Menelick Watson-OT-Florida St.
*The Bears reach for a LT to protect Cutler. Watson is raw, but is one of a handful of players in this draft with LT feet.

21-Cincinatti-Johnathan Cyprien-S-FIU
*Bengals need to upgrade at S, and Cyprien is pretty flexible in how you can play him.

22-St Louis frm Washington -DJ Fluker-OT-Alabama
*Rams keep Saffold at LT and move Fluker in at RT. Not ideal, but upgrades the offensive line which is a need.

23-Minnesota-Cordarrelle Patterson-WR-Tennessee
*Gives the Vikings a more traditional #1 WR to work with and gives them flexability with their Harvin situation.

24-Indianapolis-Xavier Rhodes-CB-Florida St.
*I could see the Colts upgrading their defensive line with this pick, but I believe they will take Rhodes due to his tremendous athleticism.

25-Seattle-Tavon Austin-WR-West Virginia
*I originally had the Seahawks taking a TE, but I believe they will take Austin and use him to add another dimension to their offense.

26-Green Bay -John Jenkins-DE-Georgia
*They need another space eater inside to go with Raji. Also protects their LB corps.

27-Houston-Alec Ogletree-ILB-Georgia
*Fills the void Ryans left and Bradie James couldn't fill. Works at WILB.

28-Denver-Kevin Minter-ILB-LSU
*Gives Denver a young MLB to play next to Von Miller. Athletic enough to play on pasing downs and allows the Broncos to move on from either Brooking or DJ Williams.

29-New England-Datone Jones-DE-UCLA
*Gives New England a needed defensive linemen who can play multiple positions. Gives them more athleticism and flexability in their front 7.

30-Atlanta-Sam Mongomery-DE-LSU
*They cut John Abraham and need an edge rusher. Montgomery is a bit undersized, but has good athleticism off the edge. Puts Montgomery on a team with established leadership so they should be able to get the most out of him.

31-San Francisco-Matt Elam-S-Florida
*San Fran gets a young, cheap physical S to replace Goldson.

32-Baltimore-Manti Te'o-ILB-Notre Dame
*A physical MLB to put in the middle of a transitioning Ravens defense. Despite everything, Te'o is still a pretty good ILB and fills a huge hole on the Ravens defense.

 

[Chopper0080]

Thoughts, comments, and questiosn are welcome. I am debating posting the 2nd round as well.

 

[JeffGollin]

Thoughts, comments, and questiosn are welcome. I am debating posting the 2nd round as well.

I'm not so sure Keenan Allen and Cyprian go that high or Milliner goes that late (given the paucity of CB's), but in general, it looks like a pretty good mock.

Interesting that you have 3 safeties drafted in the 1st round (in violation of several arbitrary "rules" no doubt).

 

[Goldfield]

Looks good. Different than any other out there but still makes sense.

 

[Chopper0080]

I'm not so sure Keenan Allen and Cyprian go that high or Milliner goes that late (given the paucity of CB's), but in general, it looks like a pretty good mock.

Interesting that you have 3 safeties drafted in the 1st round (in violation of several arbitrary "rules" no doubt).

I think by the end of the draft process, Allen will be the top rated WR. This essentially means he coudl be taken anywhere, but I like the Bills to add a vertical threat and move Stevie Johnson to the #2 WR he is better suited for.

As far as the safeties go, FA could change this dramtically, there are several teams that have a huge safety need. This, coupled with the draft being deep at CB (2nd - 4th rounds) and deep at developmental S (3rd - 5th rounds) leads me to think that teams will grab S early and CBs later if they need to upgrade both. Also, I see a bunch of teams at the back of the draft who need S's and therefore think the Bengals and Rams who have multiple picks in the first two rounds and a need at S, will take the top S's early and use their later picks to fill their other needs. I think Vacarro and Cyprien are both very agressive and versatile S's who teams can use in different roles. That versaility pushes them up the board IMO.

 

[cardncubfan]

Nice work Chopper. I look forward to these mocks every year.

 

[Cardiac]

Nice work Chopper. I look forward to these mocks every year.

cosign

Yes to the 2nd rd please.

 

[GatorAZ]

I don't think Oakland takes Geno cause they've been grooming Pryor and he's reportedly working hard and taking a leadership role. If we pass on Warmack I think he's Bills or Jets bound (even if they re-sign Levitre/Moore).

Also Tavon Austin on STL's turf is too good for them to pass up. I like the overall mock.

 

[kerouac9]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ1yhM74tk0

Joeckel isn't a perfect left tackle prospect. He's not as strong in the run game as Levi Brown is, but he's a great and mobile pass protector who will stand up to the bull rush and be able to get out against speed rushers. One thing that's interesting in that LSU tape linked to above is how well he handles stunts and not biting or being distracted by a blitzer from well outside.

The other thing that Joeckel does really well is chop a guy down to create an outlet pass. Levi Brown has habitually been terrible and unwilling to leave his feet when chopping an opposing defender.

I think that Joeckel could start immediately at OG and then be moved outside when he's had some reps and gets a little stronger.

 

[WildBB]

Thoughts, comments, and questiosn are welcome. I am debating posting the 2nd round as well.

What if KC drafts Joekel with the intention of putting either him or Albert at RT? I'd imagine Joekel would get the nod there. Floyd has come up the boards, but @ #1!?

 

[juza76]

i dont see how joeckel will pass oakland philadelphia detroit

 

[RugbyMuffin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZ1yhM74tk0

Joeckel isn't a perfect left tackle prospect. He's not as strong in the run game as Levi Brown is, but he's a great and mobile pass protector who will stand up to the bull rush and be able to get out against speed rushers. One thing that's interesting in that LSU tape linked to above is how well he handles stunts and not biting or being distracted by a blitzer from well outside.

The other thing that Joeckel does really well is chop a guy down to create an outlet pass. Levi Brown has habitually been terrible and unwilling to leave his feet when chopping an opposing defender.

I think that Joeckel could start immediately at OG and then be moved outside when he's had some reps and gets a little stronger.

+1.

You wouldn't hear me complaining if we got Joeckel.

Not to mention if the draft were to play out this way, we would be set up for some sweet options with our 2nd rounder.

The only teams from 32 to our pick looking for a QB would be the Jags.

 

[Cbus cardsfan]

Nice job and a very realistic draft. I would take Joeckel in a second. I've been reading a lot of Fisher to Philly lately. I hope that happens. I think Philly is the wildcard in the draft. Will Kelly simply try to outscore the other team or will he try and fix that defense?

 

[BullheadCardFan]

Thoughts, comments, and questiosn are welcome. I am debating posting the 2nd round as well.

Curious to see your 2nd round selections especially the Cardinals.

 

[PJ1]

Looks very logical to me and a great first pick for the Cards.

 

[PDXChris]

I don't think Oakland takes Geno cause they've been grooming Pryor and he's reportedly working hard and taking a leadership role.

I heard that same thing. That was also the reason they asked Palmer to take a paycut, since Pryor may still be a year away. Palmer is the stop gap for at most the next season.

 

[Chopper0080]

i dont see how joeckel will pass oakland philadelphia detroit

Oakland has a decent LT in Veldheer.

Philly appears optimistic that Jason Peters will come back healthy.

Detroit looks like they are happy with Backus and Reiff, though reports are surfacing that they may move Reiff to OG. IN the end, they are losing both starting DEs and need a defense pass rush. It is a deeper draft for OTs and OGs than 4-3 rush DEs.

 

[Chopper0080]

I heard that same thing. That was also the reason they asked Palmer to take a paycut, since Pryor may still be a year away. Palmer is the stop gap for at most the next season.

I get what you and Gator are saying, but I watched Pryor playing for the Raiders last year, and he wasn't good at all. My personal opinion is the Raiders are holding their breath and throwing up as many "we are happy with our QB" smoke signals so no one trades ahead of them for Geno Smith. Tall, mobile, ACCURATE QB who would have a bunch of offensive weapons to work with and would make the offensive line better by being able to escape pressure. Without a 2nd round pick to take a QB with, GEno Smith just makes too much sense at #3 for Oakland IMO.

 

[Chopper0080]

What if KC drafts Joekel with the intention of putting either him or Albert at RT? I'd imagine Joekel would get the nod there. Floyd has come up the boards, but @ #1!?

They have Eric Winston at RT. The new rumor is that KC will be trading Albert and then drafting Joeckel. Honestly, Albert is such a good LT, I have a difficult time seeing them move him anywhere.

 

[ARZCardinals]

Trading Albert
What u smoking Willis ?

He is their LT ...no ands ifs or buts

 

[kerouac9]

I get what you and Gator are saying, but I watched Pryor playing for the Raiders last year, and he wasn't good at all. My personal opinion is the Raiders are holding their breath and throwing up as many "we are happy with our QB" smoke signals so no one trades ahead of them for Geno Smith. Tall, mobile, ACCURATE QB who would have a bunch of offensive weapons to work with and would make the offensive line better by being able to escape pressure. Without a 2nd round pick to take a QB with, GEno Smith just makes too much sense at #3 for Oakland IMO.

Based on what they were trying to get Carson Palmer to do up there last year, Geno Smith would be an ideal fit for what the Raiders WANT to do at the quarterback position.

 

[Snakester]

Nice mock. We can only hope it goes this way to get Joeckel. I would trade out Mingo for Jarvis Jones though. Jones is the best pass rusher in this draft and Mingo didn't do squat this year. Yes he looks the part but he plays soft and didn't produce.

 

[Chopper0080]

Nice mock. We can only hope it goes this way to get Joeckel. I would trade out Mingo for Jarvis Jones though. Jones is the best pass rusher in this draft and Mingo didn't do squat this year. Yes he looks the part but he plays soft and didn't produce.

I side on the "Ansah" side of the Mingo arguement. I think Jarvis Jones is a better player now, but Mingo has size and skills that Jones can't touch. If I am taking a pass rusher early in the draft, I take Mingo over a small 3-4 OLB in Jones. Honestly, Jarvis Jones best fit in the NFL is probably at WOLB ala Von Miller due to his size.

 

[Chopper0080]

Based on what they were trying to get Carson Palmer to do up there last year, Geno Smith would be an ideal fit for what the Raiders WANT to do at the quarterback position.

That is my opinion as well.

 

[Chopper0080]

2nd round to be posted either today around 5pm or tomorrow morning. Hopefully won't make me look stupid.