Combine Preview: Stock Watch
Near this time last year, Vernon Davis was taking the NFL by storm. The 6-3/254-pound tight end ran a freakish 4.38 forty, jumped 42 inches vertically, and benched 225 33 times. Leading up to the draft, rumors swirled that teams like Denver wanted to trade up to take him. "Vernon Fever" ended when the Niners nabbed the former Maryland Terrapin with the No. 6 overall selection.
Vernon's younger brother A.J., a corner from N.C. State, is on this list. It doesn't appear that USC wideout Dwayne Jarrett will participate. Ted Ginn Jr. (mid-foot sprain) from Ohio State will show up but won't work out. Brady Quinn is chilling, the same approach his agent Tom Condon had Matt Leinart take in 2006.
The Combine started Wednesday with the weigh ins and interviews and completes next Tuesday. In this edition of our NFL Draft Preview, I run through some concerns pro teams may have about the following ten players and what these individuals need to do at the Combine to improve their draft values. I also provide a broad window these players are looking at in terms of where they might be drafted and give my best guess as to where they'd land if the NFL Draft was held today.
1. Arkansas DE Jamaal Anderson
Concern: lacks ideal experience
Could go as high as: Detroit at #2
Shouldn't get past: Denver at #21
It is surprising that Anderson has not gotten more hype to this point. A beautiful physical specimen at 6-6/280 with background as a star prep basketball player, Anderson is coming off a truly dominant season in the SEC. If I had to target someone to put on a show like Davis did last February, Anderson would be my pick. Though he only had one big year, all the attributes of a Julius Peppers-type player appear to be there. Since he's so young at 21 (just turned) and possesses such tremendous size potential, during individual drills at the Combine he'll likely be lined up in a five technique so those attending see how he might transition as a containing, blocker-occupying 3-4 defensive end. Running in the 4.6s or a low 4.7 should cement Anderson a top-eight pick despite his limited starting experience.
If the draft was today: Washington at #6
2. Louisville RB Michael Bush
Concern: recovering from broken leg
Could go as high as: Atlanta at #10
Shouldn't get past: Green Bay at #47
First and foremost, Bush will need to show his leg is healthy enough to run a forty in the low 4.6s or even high 4.5s and go through all the agility drills. Even though he's not a home-run hitter like [URL="http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL], Marshawn Lynch, or even Lorenzo Booker, Bush is a phenomenal natural athlete with great hands and power. If he's in good shape and times as well or better than expected, it's difficult to imagine him falling past the first 21 picks. The "bod pod" and Cybex Test will give us ideas of how focused Bush has been on his training. There is some concern about weight issues the 6-3/247-pound manchild has dealt with in the past.
If the draft was today: Atlanta at #10
3. Purdue DE Anthony Spencer
Concern: NFL position
Could go as high as: Pittsburgh at #15
Shouldn't get past: Dallas at #53
Spencer wrecked house in his final college season, tallying an NCAA-best 26.5 tackles for loss, and is fast enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4. However, it takes more than pure speed to make the transition from a being a down lineman to playing hands up. The coaching staff at the Combine will run Spencer through drills that test the fluidity in his hips to get an idea of how effective he can be with expanded responsibilities in coverage. Teams already know Spencer is a ferocious hitter with a relentless motor, which takes care of downs one and two, but most look for every-down potential in the draft's first round.
If the draft was today: Baltimore at #29
4. South Carolina WR Sidney Rice
Concern: speed, maturity
Could go as high as: Minnesota at #7
Shouldn't get past: Buffalo at #74
Rice's speed is being questioned, but there can't be too much concern about his ability to explode off the line and separate after how proficient he was at doing so in 2006. Still, a forty in the low 4.5s could be the determining factor regarding Rice's potential to be taken in Round One. Rice is also quite lanky, so showing some strength would be a promising step towards filling out and improving as a blocker. Interviews with NFL personnel could be another big factor for Rice, who left school as a third-year sophomore and is considered underdeveloped on as well as off the field.
If the draft was today: San Francisco at #11
5. Houston QB Kevin Kolb
Concern: arm strength, transition to pro offense
Could go as high as: Houston at #39
Shouldn't get past: Seattle at #85
Kolb failed to distinguish himself at the Senior Bowl like many had hoped. There are a number of factors (like the weather) that could've contributed, but Kolb's arm strength did not seem to be up to par, according to reports from Mobile. Whatever the cause, Kolb comes into the Combine as someone teams looking for QB help will monitor closely as he tries to bounce back. Kolb is savvy on the field and has mobility, which is now en vogue in the league and gives him appeal, but showing accuracy and strength on his deep pass is what he'll need to master to have a shot at being picked higher than Round Three.
If the draft was today: Houston at #73
6. Virginia Tech S Aaron Rouse
Concern: ability in coverage
Could go as high as: Tampa Bay at #35
Shouldn't get past: Round Four
Though he's much more experienced and polished at this stage of his career, Rouse's skill set is remarkably similar to that of Pat Watkins, a fifth-round pick in 2006 who started on and off in Dallas' secondary. Watkins struggled to cover wideouts and maintain good position as a first-year free safety. Rouse is already an established playmaker but one thing that separates an impressive athlete with upside from an NFL-caliber starting safety is consistency in coverage. The technique and instincts Rouse shows at the Combine will have a major bearing on his draft status. It has certainly not appeared to be straight-line speed that Rouse lacks, but a blazing forty time would at least be reassuring.
If the draft was today: Green Bay at #47
7. East Carolina WR Aundrae Allison
Concern: transition period expected
Could go as high as: Indianapolis at #32
Shouldn't get past: Houston at #73
There was talk in Mobile that Allison may have been the second best wideout on the practice field, behind only Dwayne Bowe. Allison also scored a touchdown in the game. Already possessing superior speed, Allison's stock will continue to rise if he shows some versatility as a potential return man and the hands that allowed him to haul in 62 passes in a decidedly poor passing offense at East Carolina. If exhibited, these traits should convince pro teams that, despite not being from a college powerhouse and facing top competition, he's ready to contribute in some capacity and even compete for a starting job. The 6-0/195-pound Allison's situation is somewhat similar to Greg Jennings' at this time last year.
If the draft was today: Detroit at #66
8. Wyoming S John Wendling
Concern: ability in coverage
Could go as high as: New England at #24
Shouldn't get past: Denver at #86
Wendling ran a 4.38 forty last winter and is an instinctive, smart on-field leader. However, like Rouse, his ability to slide over and shut down the slot is questionable. Because he's also not known as a particularly fierce hitter, Wendling is a bit of a "tweener"; not naturally a traditional center fielder or an enforcer. In order to convince pro teams he has starting potential in the league and isn't simply a special teams prospect, Wendling needs to show that he can use his speed to recover, not just stay with a wideout running a fly pattern. Adam Archuleta has tremendous speed as well but sat on the bench all last year because he couldn't make up ground when he bit on a certain offensive look.
If the draft was today: Jacksonville at #48
9. NC State CB A.J. Davis
Concern: lacks ideal ball skills, bulk
Could go as high as: Cleveland at #36
Shouldn't get past: New Orleans at #88
Davis is a good enough tackler to play the nickel in a Tampa 2 but may not possess the necessary size at 5-9.5/192 to step in, start, and hold up for 16 games. Also, he didn't pick off a pass as a senior and struggled with a minor hamstring injury. A.J. does have his brother's fast-twitch athleticism and can bring back kicks but at the Combine, it would be nice to see that he's been working on his in-coverage playmaking ability. Especially with so many secondaries these days playing zone defenses that place an emphasis on takeaways, Davis will increase his value if he shows his senior year numbers were more a result of teams throwing away from him than his inability to catch the football. There's not much he can do about being slight until after he's drafted and hits the NFL weight room.
If the draft was today: Minnesota at #72
10. Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson
Concern: lacks ideal experience
Could go as high as: Houston at #39
Shouldn't get past: Round Four
Jackson as much riding on this Combine as any other player in the draft because he only produced for two-thirds of a season at the college level, then decided to leave school early. There's not a whole lot of tape on him and he lacks the experience of a Darius Walker or Kenneth Darby, two players with whom he's vying for position. He has shown brilliant playing speed, produced as a receiver, and seemed to really bloom when given the opportunity late in 2006, so if he builds on that momentum, there's no telling how high he might go. I'm cautious about "predicting" a landing spot because he has plenty left to show, but wouldn't bet against Jackson going as high as the second round if he clocks, measures, and performs individual drills like he seems capable.
If the draft was held today: ?
Others To Watch:: Arkansas CB Chris Houston, Fresno State CB Marcus McCauley, Hampton LB Justin Durant, Mississippi LB Rory Johnson, Oregon State S Sabby Piscatelli, Lane WR Jacoby Jones, Wake Forest S Josh Gattis, Penn State LB Tim Shaw, Florida State OT Mario Henderson, Hawaii DE Ikaika Alama-Francis, Baylor CB C.J. Wilson.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=27810
Near this time last year, Vernon Davis was taking the NFL by storm. The 6-3/254-pound tight end ran a freakish 4.38 forty, jumped 42 inches vertically, and benched 225 33 times. Leading up to the draft, rumors swirled that teams like Denver wanted to trade up to take him. "Vernon Fever" ended when the Niners nabbed the former Maryland Terrapin with the No. 6 overall selection.
Vernon's younger brother A.J., a corner from N.C. State, is on this list. It doesn't appear that USC wideout Dwayne Jarrett will participate. Ted Ginn Jr. (mid-foot sprain) from Ohio State will show up but won't work out. Brady Quinn is chilling, the same approach his agent Tom Condon had Matt Leinart take in 2006.
The Combine started Wednesday with the weigh ins and interviews and completes next Tuesday. In this edition of our NFL Draft Preview, I run through some concerns pro teams may have about the following ten players and what these individuals need to do at the Combine to improve their draft values. I also provide a broad window these players are looking at in terms of where they might be drafted and give my best guess as to where they'd land if the NFL Draft was held today.
1. Arkansas DE Jamaal Anderson
Concern: lacks ideal experience
Could go as high as: Detroit at #2
Shouldn't get past: Denver at #21
It is surprising that Anderson has not gotten more hype to this point. A beautiful physical specimen at 6-6/280 with background as a star prep basketball player, Anderson is coming off a truly dominant season in the SEC. If I had to target someone to put on a show like Davis did last February, Anderson would be my pick. Though he only had one big year, all the attributes of a Julius Peppers-type player appear to be there. Since he's so young at 21 (just turned) and possesses such tremendous size potential, during individual drills at the Combine he'll likely be lined up in a five technique so those attending see how he might transition as a containing, blocker-occupying 3-4 defensive end. Running in the 4.6s or a low 4.7 should cement Anderson a top-eight pick despite his limited starting experience.
If the draft was today: Washington at #6
2. Louisville RB Michael Bush
Concern: recovering from broken leg
Could go as high as: Atlanta at #10
Shouldn't get past: Green Bay at #47
First and foremost, Bush will need to show his leg is healthy enough to run a forty in the low 4.6s or even high 4.5s and go through all the agility drills. Even though he's not a home-run hitter like [URL="http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.asp?sport=NFL&id=4169"]Adrian Peterson[/URL], Marshawn Lynch, or even Lorenzo Booker, Bush is a phenomenal natural athlete with great hands and power. If he's in good shape and times as well or better than expected, it's difficult to imagine him falling past the first 21 picks. The "bod pod" and Cybex Test will give us ideas of how focused Bush has been on his training. There is some concern about weight issues the 6-3/247-pound manchild has dealt with in the past.
If the draft was today: Atlanta at #10
3. Purdue DE Anthony Spencer
Concern: NFL position
Could go as high as: Pittsburgh at #15
Shouldn't get past: Dallas at #53
Spencer wrecked house in his final college season, tallying an NCAA-best 26.5 tackles for loss, and is fast enough to play outside linebacker in a 3-4. However, it takes more than pure speed to make the transition from a being a down lineman to playing hands up. The coaching staff at the Combine will run Spencer through drills that test the fluidity in his hips to get an idea of how effective he can be with expanded responsibilities in coverage. Teams already know Spencer is a ferocious hitter with a relentless motor, which takes care of downs one and two, but most look for every-down potential in the draft's first round.
If the draft was today: Baltimore at #29
4. South Carolina WR Sidney Rice
Concern: speed, maturity
Could go as high as: Minnesota at #7
Shouldn't get past: Buffalo at #74
Rice's speed is being questioned, but there can't be too much concern about his ability to explode off the line and separate after how proficient he was at doing so in 2006. Still, a forty in the low 4.5s could be the determining factor regarding Rice's potential to be taken in Round One. Rice is also quite lanky, so showing some strength would be a promising step towards filling out and improving as a blocker. Interviews with NFL personnel could be another big factor for Rice, who left school as a third-year sophomore and is considered underdeveloped on as well as off the field.
If the draft was today: San Francisco at #11
5. Houston QB Kevin Kolb
Concern: arm strength, transition to pro offense
Could go as high as: Houston at #39
Shouldn't get past: Seattle at #85
Kolb failed to distinguish himself at the Senior Bowl like many had hoped. There are a number of factors (like the weather) that could've contributed, but Kolb's arm strength did not seem to be up to par, according to reports from Mobile. Whatever the cause, Kolb comes into the Combine as someone teams looking for QB help will monitor closely as he tries to bounce back. Kolb is savvy on the field and has mobility, which is now en vogue in the league and gives him appeal, but showing accuracy and strength on his deep pass is what he'll need to master to have a shot at being picked higher than Round Three.
If the draft was today: Houston at #73
6. Virginia Tech S Aaron Rouse
Concern: ability in coverage
Could go as high as: Tampa Bay at #35
Shouldn't get past: Round Four
Though he's much more experienced and polished at this stage of his career, Rouse's skill set is remarkably similar to that of Pat Watkins, a fifth-round pick in 2006 who started on and off in Dallas' secondary. Watkins struggled to cover wideouts and maintain good position as a first-year free safety. Rouse is already an established playmaker but one thing that separates an impressive athlete with upside from an NFL-caliber starting safety is consistency in coverage. The technique and instincts Rouse shows at the Combine will have a major bearing on his draft status. It has certainly not appeared to be straight-line speed that Rouse lacks, but a blazing forty time would at least be reassuring.
If the draft was today: Green Bay at #47
7. East Carolina WR Aundrae Allison
Concern: transition period expected
Could go as high as: Indianapolis at #32
Shouldn't get past: Houston at #73
There was talk in Mobile that Allison may have been the second best wideout on the practice field, behind only Dwayne Bowe. Allison also scored a touchdown in the game. Already possessing superior speed, Allison's stock will continue to rise if he shows some versatility as a potential return man and the hands that allowed him to haul in 62 passes in a decidedly poor passing offense at East Carolina. If exhibited, these traits should convince pro teams that, despite not being from a college powerhouse and facing top competition, he's ready to contribute in some capacity and even compete for a starting job. The 6-0/195-pound Allison's situation is somewhat similar to Greg Jennings' at this time last year.
If the draft was today: Detroit at #66
8. Wyoming S John Wendling
Concern: ability in coverage
Could go as high as: New England at #24
Shouldn't get past: Denver at #86
Wendling ran a 4.38 forty last winter and is an instinctive, smart on-field leader. However, like Rouse, his ability to slide over and shut down the slot is questionable. Because he's also not known as a particularly fierce hitter, Wendling is a bit of a "tweener"; not naturally a traditional center fielder or an enforcer. In order to convince pro teams he has starting potential in the league and isn't simply a special teams prospect, Wendling needs to show that he can use his speed to recover, not just stay with a wideout running a fly pattern. Adam Archuleta has tremendous speed as well but sat on the bench all last year because he couldn't make up ground when he bit on a certain offensive look.
If the draft was today: Jacksonville at #48
9. NC State CB A.J. Davis
Concern: lacks ideal ball skills, bulk
Could go as high as: Cleveland at #36
Shouldn't get past: New Orleans at #88
Davis is a good enough tackler to play the nickel in a Tampa 2 but may not possess the necessary size at 5-9.5/192 to step in, start, and hold up for 16 games. Also, he didn't pick off a pass as a senior and struggled with a minor hamstring injury. A.J. does have his brother's fast-twitch athleticism and can bring back kicks but at the Combine, it would be nice to see that he's been working on his in-coverage playmaking ability. Especially with so many secondaries these days playing zone defenses that place an emphasis on takeaways, Davis will increase his value if he shows his senior year numbers were more a result of teams throwing away from him than his inability to catch the football. There's not much he can do about being slight until after he's drafted and hits the NFL weight room.
If the draft was today: Minnesota at #72
10. Nebraska RB Brandon Jackson
Concern: lacks ideal experience
Could go as high as: Houston at #39
Shouldn't get past: Round Four
Jackson as much riding on this Combine as any other player in the draft because he only produced for two-thirds of a season at the college level, then decided to leave school early. There's not a whole lot of tape on him and he lacks the experience of a Darius Walker or Kenneth Darby, two players with whom he's vying for position. He has shown brilliant playing speed, produced as a receiver, and seemed to really bloom when given the opportunity late in 2006, so if he builds on that momentum, there's no telling how high he might go. I'm cautious about "predicting" a landing spot because he has plenty left to show, but wouldn't bet against Jackson going as high as the second round if he clocks, measures, and performs individual drills like he seems capable.
If the draft was held today: ?
Others To Watch:: Arkansas CB Chris Houston, Fresno State CB Marcus McCauley, Hampton LB Justin Durant, Mississippi LB Rory Johnson, Oregon State S Sabby Piscatelli, Lane WR Jacoby Jones, Wake Forest S Josh Gattis, Penn State LB Tim Shaw, Florida State OT Mario Henderson, Hawaii DE Ikaika Alama-Francis, Baylor CB C.J. Wilson.
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=NFL&columnid=60&articleid=27810
